Newbie 2050 | The End

[RayFrost]

I believe I'm the last claim, and I don't counterclaim anything here.

I'm VT.

[volxen]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

[Malakittens]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

This.

[RayFrost]

I have been fairly busy this weekend with work overflow. I'll be doing my analysis and actual content posting fully tomorrow night, Japan-time.

I don't agree with Volxen that the best play is to no lynch today. Reason being that mafia still have more control over the night game than the day game, and we aren't likely to get more information from the passing of a night phase than we currently have. Normally, I'd push for a no lynch, but given the spread of power roles, our likelihood of being able to gain anything isn't higher with the presence of a potential roleblocker (if we assume volxen is town and not fake claiming).

The most likely outcome from that scenario is that malakittens dies, and then we're set back to today's amount of information + the loss of a confirmed pro-town perspective on the game.

[AliceK]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

I think that no elim might provide additional info. I am ok with that.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm with RayFrost. All we get from a no-lim is Mala dead.

[StatueSurfer]

Holy crap 2 and a half days have gone by, let's get moving people~

I believe I'm the last claim, and I don't counterclaim anything here.

I'm VT.

This took an inordinate amount of time to bring out but whatever.

yeah, I get work.

And kind of unnecessary to say you aren't CCing when you're claiming VT but w/e.

UNVOTE:

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed.

Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Why?? If you're town, scum can kill MK with 100% certainty (by having the roleblocker block her and kill her), and you only have a 25% chance of tracking the scum. Or you could get roleblocked, forcing MK to have a 25% chance of jailing the scum to stop the kill -- and from your POV, executing someone purely at random has a

50%

chance of hitting scum. And of course if you're scum, you or your buddy can kill MK, scapegoat a townie with a made-up result, and get an easy mislynch.

---

Anyway

I could see anyone (except MK or myself, obviously) being scum at this point, but I guess I have to start somewhere.

Possible scumteams from my POV, arranged in least to most likely:

Lunar/Volxen: yes, he brought his buddy up to E-1, with someone who hates them (me) still alive and kicking... doesn't seem likely, especially given his good arguments against Lunar toward the end of the phase.

Alice/Volxen: this is not conclusively impossible, and that's the only good thing I can say about it. They voted on opposite sides D2 and (at last notice) had opposite reads on Lunar, and I don't really any reason why they would be together.

RayFrost/Volxen: Main thing that doesn't make sense here is why Frost would bother bailing out Lunar D2. Then again, Lunar already TR'd Frost, was onto PoE between me, Harumi, and Volx, so maybe they setup the miselim on Harumi to bait him into voting m-- yeah, this one is pretty unlikely.

RayFrost/Alice: They haven't really interacted much at all, although I might need to go back and check that. Alice randomly SR'd Frost in the middle of D2, so maybe this isn't so likely. They have a reason to keep Town!Lunar from being killed: he TRed both of them, so why not keep him around a patsy to vote with them?

Come to think of it, this one may be

less

likely than Frost/Volxen. Pretty sure Frost and Alice voted the same way on both wagons though, but then again, so did I, at least in spirit.

Alice/Lunar: I explained why I thought this was a good partner for Lunar D2, but I'll explain it again:
- explains why Alice SRed Lunar's slot at the beginning and then was so reluctant to actually explain it
- explains why Alice started TRing Lunar for no reason not long after he subbed in
- explains why Lunar TRed Alice back under spurious logic
- makes perfect sense for Volxen being the N2 kill target, as he asked Lunar a slew of questions at the end of D2, and if he's dead, Lunar won't have to answer them

Lunar/Frost: surprise, my top-townpick from D2 is part of my most likely scumteam (which is less because I find Frost really scummy and more because I find Lunar really scummy and think Frost is his most likely partner)
- Many of Lunar's actions don't make sense of a town perspective or a scum perspective, which is what he's been using to argue that he can't possibly be scum-motivated. Most of these, of course, seem crazy for a scum player to do...
- ...unless you have a top-TR to carry water and take the pressure off you.
- Both of the wagons Frost started came when Lunar was the top wagon, and both of them flipped town.
- Frost outright called Lunar's actions "anti-town" but said that didn't necessarily mean Lunar was scum, which is... true, but also sounds kind of similar to saying that Lunar is "too scummy," which isn't an argument
- makes perfect sense for Volxen being the N2 kill target, as he asked Lunar a slew of questions at the end of D2, and if he's dead, Lunar won't have to answer them (yes, I know this is a c/p of an Alice/Lunar point, it just makes sense for Lunar being scum to me)

So, that's, like, my opinion, man. And this vote should come as no surprise: VOTE: Lunar Martian

Also, I want several questions answered:

@AliceK

: you've ducked this twice now (including one from Volx, maybe I should've moved your teams higher up): WHY do you townread Lunar Martian? Please explain in full.

@Malakittens

: since you're our only conftown, please share your reads list with us.

@Lunar

: who's my scumbuddy?

[Lunar Martian]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

[Lunar Martian]

@Statue I'm really not looking for associatives without flips. It's distracting.

[Lunar Martian]

This took an inordinate amount of time to bring out but whatever. yeah, I get work.

And kind of unnecessary to say you aren't CCing when you're claiming VT but w/e.

UNVOTE:

This is really sleazy shading.

[Lunar Martian]

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

[Lunar Martian]

The reason it confirms volxen as Mafia is that I don't think Alice or Ray are Mafia.

[volxen]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

The fact that you didn't target anyone on night one isn't a mechanical clear FMPOV. It clears you from being a roleblocker, but you could be a goon and your partner both roleblocked and performed the nightkill on night one.

So with a no-elimination, I would be tracking from a pool of four players on night three, but we would be guaranteed to not lose during the night phase.

[Lunar Martian]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

The fact that you didn't target anyone on night one isn't a mechanical clear FMPOV. It clears you from being a roleblocker, but you could be a goon and your partner both roleblocked and performed the nightkill on night one.

So with a no-elimination, I would be tracking from a pool of four players on night three, but we would be guaranteed to not lose during the night phase.

I mean it's possible, but unlikely, since the roleblocker multi-tasking would mean a tracker would get a full guilty. In any event you'd have to be pushing me and Statue as the Mafia team and you aren't doing that, so you're still Mafia.

[StatueSurfer]

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and

me being clear

and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

That bolded part is putting in work.

@Statue I'm really not looking for associatives without flips. It's distracting.

Distracting? From what? You're already convinced I'm scum, what else is there for you to do but find my partner for when the game continues into D4? The only reason to not think that far ahead is if... you knew that there wouldn't BE a D4 if I go down.

This took an inordinate amount of time to bring out but whatever. yeah, I get work.

And kind of unnecessary to say you aren't CCing when you're claiming VT but w/e.

UNVOTE:

This is really sleazy shading.

Shading? I guess, but I outright put him in my top scumteam, so I don't know how much "shading" there is.

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

So you say in the same post that:

1. There are two scum in {Me, Alice, Frost} because of Volx's post
2. Volxen is confirmed scum

What's really funny here is that you apparently forgot about your earlier PoE of {Me, Harumi, Volxen} (this post), which I say because you never referenced it today.

And I love that this post came

three minutes

after your post saying you didn't want to do associative reads, because I guess you immediately realized how scummy that post was.

The reason it confirms volxen as Mafia is that I don't think Alice or Ray are Mafia.

This is a shaky definition of "confirm" lol.

I mean it's possible, but unlikely, since the roleblocker multi-tasking would mean a tracker would get a full guilty.

In any event you'd have to be pushing me and Statue as the Mafia team and you aren't doing that, so you're still Mafia.

The first part is pointless, and not even necessarily unlikely. N1 they're roleblocking a random person anyway, and you fail to consider that it halves the odds of a tracker getting a scum if one of them multitasks.

The bolded part is just dishonest, because you're treating Alice and Frost as though everyone should find them confirmed town, when the only reason you're confirming them town is because you "don't think Alice or Ray are Mafia," which... is just your read on them. Not any kind of confirmation lol.

Guess you can't have logic getting in the way of your push of Me/Volxen as the scumteam...

Also find it curious how unwilling you are to acknowledge even the possibility one of those two could be scum.

The fact that you didn't target anyone on night one isn't a mechanical clear FMPOV. It clears you from being a roleblocker, but you could be a goon and your partner both roleblocked and performed the nightkill on night one.

So with a no-elimination, I would be tracking from a pool of four players on night three, but we would be guaranteed to not lose during the night phase.

The key problem here is, the rest of us don't know you're town, so we can't trust you won't be setting us up to get fed a load of BS and mislynched. Because of that, we can't trust any guilty you get D4 anyway in a 3-2. And anyway, you aren't likely to track the scum anyway, so I think it's better to find scum today.

At least it will be

if more than three people actually show up!

Seriously, can we get some more people in here? Like is this Mylo or RVS?

[Lunar Martian]

So you say in the same post that:

1. There are two scum in {Me, Alice, Frost} because of Volx's post
2. Volxen is confirmed scum

What's really funny here is that you apparently forgot about your earlier PoE of {Me, Harumi, Volxen} (this post), which I say because you never referenced it today.

And I love that this post came three minutes after your post saying you didn't want to do associative reads, because I guess you immediately realized how scummy that post was.

You are clearly not understanding what I said. The question is whether it happened intentionally.

[RayFrost]

VOTE: StatueSurfer

Case with post links Coming Soon^TM, but I wanted to get this out so that people are aware that I'm present.

[RayFrost]

VOTE: Unvote

Just realized I was being silly.

[RayFrost]

So, I unvoted not because I think my read on Statue is wrong but rather because I acknowledge that I'm not perfect and don't want to risk coinflipping the game with both mafia immediately jumping onto the vote.

Obviously, if one of the mafia in this hypothetical scenario is Lunar (I highly doubt Lunar's mafia, but etc), it's not possible for the insta-lynch to happen. So it'd have to be exactly alice + volxen, which means no roleblocker (with volxen having fakeclaimed tracker), so it'd come down to whether mala could guess correctly which one does the kill come nightfall.

I'm not interested in the game going that direction simply because I was sloppy with my vote in a late game scenario.

Now, on why I think Statue is mafia:

This sequence of posts from Statue has a funky little dynamic.

Statue goes from "What alice said isn't compelling and is suspect" and "I find Ray suspicious, and I guess maybe Crab's suspicious, too but not really"

to

"Yeah, Alice actually made sense. Haha I thought it too. It was a test." and "What Ray said is such solid reasoning to suspect this person even though I thought it was hardly noteworthy to start with."

Using the "time since posting" reasoning to suspect someone is one of the easiest cop-outs possible. Inactivity is not inherently an alignment tell. You previously barely found Crab noteworthy, but then someone vocal says stuff about it, and you go "yeah. What he said!"

And it's a technique Statue uses in this game day and in other posts as well (like that one vote applies some ~magical pressure~ on me to post?). It's performative.

Statue's earliest "strong" read starts off, in game day 1, with suspecting someone on the basis of what is essentially just connection-based reading without confirmation. It's a lot more likely for mafia to throw this kind of thing out willy nilly because they're very focused on controlling the connections they can be seen to have. While it's not directly a Freudian slip, it is in the same family. I also have already explained my view on why it's anti-town.

Having "scum reads" on multiple people at the same time is basically just going "here's all the players I see as low-hanging fruit that I could shift my vote to if it's convenient for me."

When looking at Statue's posting more closely, it seems like there's a lot more smearing of dirt on other players than actually trying to figure out the game. Take this post where we can already see Statue softening the stance on Lunar. "I'm not as confident in this read as I might seem" and "you're making some good points" reads to me as "maybe you're not as free a lynch as I thought, and I might choose to shift my attention elsewhere."

This post is reaching for any point to put against Lunar.

This post has appeasement aimed at me to avoid suspicion (not gonna lie, it kinda worked), and then we see the shift to cook. Instead of any attempts to gain clarity from cook, Statue just goes with the town narrative that the slot is mafia. Completely gives up on trying to get the town to go with the Lunar lynch despite being oh so certain that Lunar was mafia.

Even this reads post shows an overall softening of Statue's positions. This is convenient toward what I can see as the planned narrative: "I was so hard on the Lunar lynch D1, I think it's an easy push D2, let's get it." And then the rest are slotted into "I think they're lynchable" outside of the town leans and "I don't think they're easy to lynch" in the town reads (with one stand out that's not like the others - I'll be referring to this later).

Statue took 4 days to post! In Statue time, that's basically a mafia claim in thread. (Yes, I am poking fun.)

Also, the reasoning for voting Lunar is essentially canned. There was a small add-on in response to the way Lunar started Game Day 2, but it's hardly a case.

It doesn't appear to me like Statue actually

looked

at the rest of the players over the night phase. There was no change in light of the flips. There was... nothing. Just a dusting of the hands and a return to business going after Lunar.

The only reason that gets shaken up is the fact that I post a case (mistaken) against Harumi. Someone that Statue claimed to have in the "town lean" section alongside me. Yet that "townlean" just gets... swept aside because there's an opportunity to mislynch a townie that seemed difficult to lynch before.

And this post doesn't even provide any individual analysis of Harumi. In fact, there's no analysis of Harumi from Statue at all. Just sheeping of my read. And this vote looks like a "what if I just... tip the scales a little here... maybe it'll go this way?"

Thinking about it from a statue-as-mafia perspective, this is actually pretty reasonable. The lunar lynch was on the verge of happening. That should be easy to push in the following game day. Just repeat the same thing that's been said for the past two game days. What could go wrong? If you regurgitate it enough times, it'll have to take eventually.

More antsy activity commentary in this post. The pairing analysis is whatever to me.

There is one thing that I don't like.

Statue asks for a full reads list from Mala. As mafia, this makes sense to get from a jailkeeper. With it, you can assess which people Mala would be likely to target come night 3. This would make it easier to dodge a jailkeep and have the game actually end after a mislynch.

We should be asking for mala to publicly assess the

individual

she thinks is mafia in this game day and that's it.

The less she shows of her hand, the better it is for us as town to have a shot at winning the game.

[RayFrost]

Also, I said I'd be referring to something later. Later is not in that post and not right now.

[StatueSurfer]

So you say in the same post that:

1. There are two scum in {Me, Alice, Frost} because of Volx's post
2. Volxen is confirmed scum

What's really funny here is that you apparently forgot about your earlier PoE of {Me, Harumi, Volxen} (this post), which I say because you never referenced it today.

And I love that this post came three minutes after your post saying you didn't want to do associative reads, because I guess you immediately realized how scummy that post was.

You are clearly not understanding what I said. The question is whether it happened intentionally.

Okay, so your post here, just to be clear, appears to follow this train of thought:

1) "Volx's results, if true, clear me from being scum" (they don't) "because the roleblocker likely wouldn't multitask" (a questionable assertion),
2) "therefore, from Volx's POV, I must be town" (which is wrong, because you aren't cleared),
3) "I TR Alice and Frost, therefore neither of them can be scum" (this is an unbelievable level of confidence in your reads),
4) "therefore StatueSurfer must be scum," (which I'm not)
5) "and since Alice and Frost are confirmed town" (implied to be your view by #389, for no better reason than you TR them apparently) "and Volxen isn't pushing Statue/Lunar" (which is because Alice and Frost aren't conftown, making this pure tautology) "Volxen must be scum as well"

Is this about right? Because there are a few questionable pillars here, as I noted.

I notice you chose not to bother saying why:
1) you believe Alice and Frost are confirmed town on the basis of pretty much nothing
2) you think Volxen should believe Alice and Frost are confirmed town to the point that from his POV, Statue/Lunar is the

only

possible scumteam, when that is obviously BS.

I look forward to your justifications for these, especially 2).

VOTE: StatueSurfer

Case with post links Coming Soon^TM, but I wanted to get this out so that people are aware that I'm present.

VOTE: Unvote

Just realized I was being silly.

Silly? Silly how? If you believe I'm scum strongly enough that you're about to write out a detailed analysis of why I'm scum, then why would you be worried about me getting quickhammered by the scumteam?

Also, thanks for starting yet another wagon to get pressure off of Lunar, including your second straight on one of his voters, perfectly fitting what I suspected was coming if you were his scumbuddy! I guess I'm supposed to wait with bated breath while you do a devastating analysis of all of my posts, but I think I'll do what Harumi didn't do and preempt this with why I'm not scum, starting with every scumteam I could possibly be in:

StatueSurfer/Lunar Martian: Um... no. If we're faking this, I'll see you at next year's Scummies. Also: it is very unlikely I would attack my new partner right as they came into the game as aggressively as I did, and even less likely we'd be tunneled into each other in Mylo, and even less likely I would (or would have to!) bring him to E-1 just to get him to answer a question.

StatueSurfer/RayFrost: I seriously doubt Frost is about to produce a write-up saying why I'm his scumbuddy, but... well, the fact I'm writing this post kind of demonstrates why we're probably not scum together. Why go after your scumbuddy in Mylo? Why not just leave Lunar at E-1 for a while on D2, BS for a while about his partners, execute him and be just as surprised as everyone else when he flips town? If we think we can save him for later, why turn on each other the next day? Why would scum!me not go along with scum!Frost's suggestion to do "popcorn" style claiming (or even bother responding first to it, for that matter), which would waste more time and force town to no-elim or perhaps make a rushed miselim? (To build towncred I guess, but doesn't change the fact it legitimately hurts scum)

StatueSurfer/AliceK: Okay, onto scumteams that could actually make sense. Honestly, we haven't interacted much, but I don't know why scum!Alice would keep needing to be pestered to answer scum!me's questions. You could argue that's elaborate scum theater, but it mostly makes Alice look scummier, and we wouldn't want that. Also doesn't make sense for us to nightkill Krazy. Not a lot going in favor of this one, although it isn't totally unreasonable.

StatueSurfer/Volxen: Lunar's pet scumteam and what Frost will probably say as well. If I'm scum, this really is the most likely scumteam for me to be in. Well... I did (and still do!) have a townlean on Volx, and we've barely interacted, and Volx has questioned what were my top two D2 scumreads (that's Lunar and Alice). Well, again, there's no reason for scum!me to be the first to respond to Frost's post or to even disagree with it, and there is also little reason for scum!me to disagree with Volxen's suggestion of a no-elim (you'd think we'd have at least coordinated our thoughts on it in our PT). Maybe I was pressured into agreeing with Lunar and Frost? Well, 1) why bother when I put both of them into my top scumteam anyway, and 2) since Alice and MK have temporarily vanished, it would 2-for and 2-against the no-elim strategy, so it's not as if I would've been flying in the face of overwhelming opposition.

tl;dr if you're going to say I'm scum, you're 99% saying Volxen is also scum.

P.S.: Well, I... guess I didn't beat Frost's post out of the gate. Oh well. Which means I get to start trying to refute all that right now!

My responses are in bold.

So, I unvoted not because I think my read on Statue is wrong but rather because I acknowledge that I'm not perfect and don't want to risk coinflipping the game with both mafia immediately jumping onto the vote.

Obviously, if one of the mafia in this hypothetical scenario is Lunar (I highly doubt Lunar's mafia, but etc), it's not possible for the insta-lynch to happen. So it'd have to be exactly alice + volxen, which means no roleblocker (with volxen having fakeclaimed tracker), so it'd come down to whether mala could guess correctly which one does the kill come nightfall.

I'm not interested in the game going that direction simply because I was sloppy with my vote in a late game scenario.

Now, on why I think Statue is mafia:

This sequence of posts from Statue has a funky little dynamic.

Statue goes from "What alice said isn't compelling and is suspect" and "I find Ray suspicious, and I guess maybe Crab's suspicious, too but not really"

If you reread that more carefully, I actually said Crab was

more

suspicious than you. My FoS on you was a natural reflex from me coming Mafia played with much shorter deadlines.

to

"Yeah, Alice actually made sense. Haha I thought it too. It was a test." and "What Ray said is such solid reasoning to suspect this person even though I thought it was hardly noteworthy to start with."

Yeah, that first part wasn't a good look. This second part is total BS, since I pretty much said what you did when I FoS'd Crab.

Using the "time since posting" reasoning to suspect someone is one of the easiest cop-outs possible. Inactivity is not inherently an alignment tell. You previously barely found Crab noteworthy, but then someone vocal says stuff about it, and you go "yeah. What he said!"

After all, it's unheard of for scum, especially newbscum to take longer to formulate lies than town. Also, your post about Crab used my logic and

came after mine.

And it's a technique Statue uses in this game day and in other posts as well (like that one vote applies some ~magical pressure~ on me to post?).

It's also unheard-of for scum to try to delay town.

It's performative.

Performative? I brought Lunar to E-1, but I guess if you already think I'm scum then there was no risk there.

Statue's earliest "strong" read starts off, in game day 1, with suspecting someone on the basis of what is essentially just connection-based reading without confirmation.

??? Confirmation on a D1 vote? It's not like I brought him to E-1 there. Maybe I was grasping a little, but his whole entrance really rubbed me the wrong way. Note that I also suggested he was trying to frame Charles to take heat off his slot, so it's not like I was obsessed with the bussing theory

It's a lot more likely for mafia to throw this kind of thing out willy nilly because they're very focused on controlling the connections they can be seen to have. While it's not directly a Freudian slip, it is in the same family. I also have already explained my view on why it's anti-town.

Having "scum reads" on multiple people at the same time is basically just going "here's all the players I see as low-hanging fruit that I could shift my vote to if it's convenient for me."

Don't know what to tell you, other than I legitimately found all of them scummy for exactly the reasons I gave. Note that Alice and Lunar were not activity-based. Also: if I like to go after low-hanging fruit, why did I just put you in my top scumteam?

When looking at Statue's posting more closely, it seems like there's a lot more smearing of dirt on other players than actually trying to figure out the game. Take this post where we can already see Statue softening the stance on Lunar. "I'm not as confident in this read as I might seem" and "you're making some good points" reads to me as "maybe you're not as free a lynch as I thought, and I might choose to shift my attention elsewhere."

YOU aren't an easy lynch, Lunar/Harumi was 50/50, and Lunar has miraculously survived 2 days despite being brought to E-1 both times.

This post is reaching for any point to put against Lunar.

I mean... if you don't think any of those things are scummy I guess we just disagree (I thought he was fluffposting a little and that his response to MK was very weird). Also threw shade at Alice, and have kept exercising that specific point literally every game day.

This post has appeasement aimed at me to avoid suspicion (not gonna lie, it kinda worked),

I thought it was important to show why I wasn't doing what I said I would (and I did post reads with my first post of D2)

and then we see the shift to cook. Instead of any attempts to gain clarity from cook,

I assume you refer to his weird read on Lunar, and I gave him a window to explain and Lunar asked him outright, and he never did; he self-hammered instead.

Statue just goes with the town narrative that the slot is mafia. Completely gives up on trying to get the town to go with the Lunar lynch despite being oh so certain that Lunar was mafia.

I will absolutely admit that by that point I almost didn't care whether he flipped town or not because the slot was going to be so unreliable we were liable to miselim him later when we couldn't afford it. And his defense was atrocious, and why does scum!me tell him to try to save himself?

Even this reads post shows an overall softening of Statue's positions. This is convenient toward what I can see as the planned narrative: "I was so hard on the Lunar lynch D1, I think it's an easy push D2, let's get it." And then the rest are slotted into "I think they're lynchable" outside of the town leans and "I don't think they're easy to lynch" in the town reads (with one stand out that's not like the others - I'll be referring to this later).

Statue took 4 days to post! In Statue time, that's basically a mafia claim in thread. (Yes, I am poking fun.)

Also, the reasoning for voting Lunar is essentially canned. There was a small add-on in response to the way Lunar started Game Day 2, but it's hardly a case.

So any reasons I had to SR Lunar on the first day no longer apply on the second day? Again, if you didn't think they were valid, we just have to disagree.

It doesn't appear to me like Statue actually

looked

at the rest of the players over the night phase. There was no change in light of the flips. There was... nothing. Just a dusting of the hands and a return to business going after Lunar.

The flips were two inactive players, both of whom were voted on by Lunar at one time or another, flip town. Considering nobody had a problem with Cook/Crab's wagon, I don't think analyzing that tells us much.

The only reason that gets shaken up is the fact that I post a case (mistaken) against Harumi. Someone that Statue claimed to have in the "town lean" section alongside me. Yet that "townlean" just gets... swept aside because there's an opportunity to mislynch a townie that seemed difficult to lynch before.

Remember how I said I was paranoid in that reads list? I wasn't married to any of those reads, there were just how I saw the game at that moment. Hence how my top TR ends up my top scumteam, and how another townlean gets voted on. Which was a mistake -- I should've switched over and hammered Lunar before Alice hammered Harumi, but can't fix that now.

Also it's a little callous to make that eloquent analysis, then SR me for being persuaded by it. Note that prior to his vote on Harumi, Lunar's last readlist had Harumi as a townread.

And this post doesn't even provide any individual analysis of Harumi. In fact, there's no analysis of Harumi from Statue at all. Just sheeping of my read. And this vote looks like a "what if I just... tip the scales a little here... maybe it'll go this way?"

Wasn't much left to analyze, and Lunar and Alice also did not analyze Harumi's posts.

Thinking about it from a statue-as-mafia perspective, this is actually pretty reasonable. The lunar lynch was on the verge of happening. That should be easy to push in the following game day. Just repeat the same thing that's been said for the past two game days.

Yes, with that eloquent post by Frost, Harumi will turn into a really tough push after Lunar flips town. Wait, no it won't. Also, again, deliberately antagonizing you, the top TR, does not fit the narrative that I'm trying for easy pushes.

What could go wrong? If you regurgitate it enough times, it'll have to take eventually.

More antsy activity commentary in this post.

Please explain: why does scum!me want

more

activity in this thread?

The pairing analysis is whatever to me.

Okay.

There is one thing that I don't like.

Statue asks for a full reads list from Mala. As mafia, this makes sense to get from a jailkeeper. With it, you can assess which people Mala would be likely to target come night 3. This would make it easier to dodge a jailkeep and have the game actually end after a mislynch.

This also makes sense if you're town trying to get the only person in the game you know does not have an agenda.

We should be asking for mala to publicly assess the

individual

she thinks is mafia in this game day and that's it.

The less she shows of her hand, the better it is for us as town to have a shot at winning the game.

Fair enough. Didn't consider that because I figured we either get scum or go bust.

So you misrepresented me a bit and basically ignored my analysis today because it didn't fit your narrative. Also skipped over a lot of my posts about Lunar. Kind of understandable since there's a lot of them, but still. And I will freely admit that Day 2 I was not on my game, but am I scummy for being convinced by an analysis

you

wrote? And although you said I didn't analyze Harumi's post, I did go analyze your analysis.

And I'll ask you what I asked your partner Lunar: who is my scumbuddy?

[RayFrost]

Not voting you on the off-chance that I'm wrong is a reasonable choice. It at the very least gives other people time to contribute to the thread if I'm wrong. Even if I don't think I'm wrong, being open to the possibility will avoid the whole issue of tunnel vision.

Honestly, I considered Volxen as the likely buddy (that was actually what the note was about in my previous post), but with how strong you're trying to push

away

from the possibility of it being Alice, it makes me lean toward Alice being more likely. Perhaps a bit on the WIFOMy side, but eh. I haven't done a deep dive into Alice's posts vs Volxen's posts to really get into it, but that's also something I can look at the following game day.

Fair enough on me misreading the "slightly less slight" sentence. I had to read it twice after you mentioned it to even realize I'd missed the second slight. Sometimes, my reading isn't too good after work.

The "performative" comment is about your focus on people's ~activity levels~ weighing so heavily on your reads on people. Maybe it's just you coming from a different, more real-time meta like you mentioned. Maybe it's just an easy way to shift things around. I think the latter is more likely than the former.

I'm not expecting you to have confirmation on day 1. I'm noting that ~connection reads~ without any confirmed information is superfluous at best. Like you admitted yourself, it's grasping.

Going after me at this point isn't about low-hanging fruit. It's about reading the room: I'm

going

to town read Lunar, as I already have been. Trying to convince me to vote for Lunar is going to be a lot harder than trying to convince other people. You've already shown a pattern of trying to catch both mafia without a flip in previous posting, so you'll be forced to say

someone

for the sake of consistency. And whoever you do say will be antagonized and less likely to vote with you. So, choose the person who you know isn't going to vote with you to begin with.

By pushing so hard on Lunar days 1 / 2, you as mafia can't rightly shift away from the read and let it die. So, you're stuck in a bad position of having to deal with it the best you can. It's tough. I sympathize.

The small shade you've thrown Alice is minimal, and the lack of any real bite behind the interactions between the two of you combined with Alice's random scum read on me when I stated I thought Lunar was town reads as Alice-as-Mafia reacting with frustration to things not going as planned. Furthering my belief that it's probably you two, though I haven't done a deep dive on "if Statue is mafia" yet.

You don't tell cook to save himself. You tell cook "if you don't convince me, I'm going to vote." They're different things.

RE: Not hammering Lunar on d2... removing Lunar from the game would force you to have to look at the rest of the playerlist in a more concrete fashion (as you didn't have anything concrete that wasn't Lunar), which makes the game harder for you to play. If you give the Harumi wagon a day, there's a chance that the momentum it gained will die from events over the night phase. My read likely caught you off guard and by surprise, and you wanted to take advantage of it while you could. Alice being the hammer on the slot only makes it make more sense to me instead of less.

[AliceK]

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

I actually can see anyone as Mafia. Ray is my primary suspect I would like to vote tbh. Doesn't really like his Day 1, had a lot of interactions but avoided doing reads.

[RayFrost]

Also, Mafia-Statue would want more activity because you'd be desperate to get the town to read your side of things and agree with it before a lot of activity can happen overall. You

need

the inactive players to vote with you.

Admittedly, Town-Statue would want the same thing, but I don't think you'd be so concerned about it happening before I had the opportunity to post anything in-depth (because you'd be standing righteously in the knowledge that you're town). That's just my take on it, though.

[RayFrost]

Oh, hello Alice.

Is that all that you have to contribute to this thread?

I see a pattern.