Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[ScrewTheTells]

Ugh sorry for the rambling but my brain just keeps coming up with more things I want to say. This is just arguing with a confirmed town so it's not really relevant, but whatever.

Look Mush, I think we're very different players/brains because if I didn't know you were confirmed town I'd think you're misrepresenting me pretty heavily right now. You said I was loud about Imperium and I turned out wrong. Um...that was like on Day 1-2 right? But on Day 3, Imperium started moving away from the scum end of my list (they were still leaning scum, to be sure). I'm sure I said this. I started considering their words more seriously because I reduced the probability of them being scum. You did not see any of that? I don't see how you can just over generalize and say because I was loud about MUSH and Imperium on Day 2 and that turned out to be wrong, therefore I'm just always wrong. Especially when I think I've been pretty loud about Norfolk! Seriously, this is the sort of thing that made me think you were scum; your summary of what I did is just so far away from what I actually did.

But I guess maybe this shouldn't be that surprising by now. I think having radically different perspectives was something Imperium commented on too. Maybe we just have a lot of that in this playerlist...meh...

[MUSHSHAGANA]

You were still pretty loud about Imperium on Day 3. See, unlike your other reads, with me, Imperium and Not_Mafia you made a point of emphasizing your confidence every chance you got. If our names were in your post it was nigh guaranteed to include a mention of how scummy we were.

Contrast the Duchess read. I literally didn’t even know you had a scumread there until after Duchess flipped. You mention it one time and drop it post flip. Or the HUB read, which, let me go grab the receipts for this one. This sucks and is tedious but it’s worth it.

Or not because guess what, you don’t mention scumreading HUB/Norfolk once for all of Day 3. Not one time. Your one mention is that you want to give HUB a chance to establish themselves in the player list. Oh, or I could count the pun post, but I am unwilling to call a funny wordplay joke a serious statement about how one reads a slot. That’s simply a cop out.

During Day 2, I spotted you mentioning Norfolk, but always in the same breath as you mentioned Not_Mafia. Which was /also/ less then I thought, by the way. More interesting, however, was Duchess. Because I found your pre-shot mention of Duchess, and it’s a noncommittal “yeah I guess that could be scum but what if we shot over here instead?”

Yeah, Norfolk was red. Norfolk was also DEAD WEIGHT. Duchess was putting work in, big time. This redirection looks ugly, because Duchess might have salvaged their slot while Norfolk was doomed from jump.

Finally, STT, there is one last thing to consider.

What are you saying here right now that you couldn’t say as scum in this position? Why should I read this as you having thoughts and not panic spew as I nail the scumteam to the wall? Just like Wheme is doing, by the way.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I should clarify about Day 3 with Imperium: you were quick to bring up “Imperium might be scum” where HUB, who you claim to have had a strong scumread on, never once got a mention of being scum. I did not mean to imply that you were still yelling IMPERIUM IS TOTAL SCUM all the time, you left that behind when I got the gun and asked you to towncase them.

Oh, which reminds me. The one and only insightful thing I posted on Day 3 was pointing out how your tone and attitude changed DRAMATICALLY once I got in control. Including your reads on ... oh, everyone I posted about. You even started calling unwnd scum (yeah so did I, my excuse was I could not tell and was guessing). Which makes me think your team outnumbered you on the gun passing question, and you were trying to hold on despite them selling you up the river.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I probably am leaving out little bits that make it look like I’m skipping things but I’m typing on a phone and reading on a phone and there is no furniture here and I haven’t slept in 48 hours, just trust me when I say I have a couple pages of handwritten notes in front of me and it checks out.

[WhemeStar]

Duchess was putting work in, big time. This redirection looks ugly, because Duchess might have salvaged their slot while Norfolk was doomed from jump.

I don’t think they were putting in work I feel like it was obvious who scum was between lotus and duchess

Should also be obvious who scum is between peta and imperium

[SirCakez]

Why couldn't peta v imp TvT?
Me vs Imp was

[WhemeStar]

Because imp said they have a really hard meta read on peta and they are super confident they are right

[SirCakez]

Imp is not always right
I think Peta has a decent chance of being scum but I don't like this dichotomy where one of Imp and Peta HAD to be scum

[WhemeStar]

I know imp isn’t always right they scumread me. Difference is they said they have a hard meta case on peta and they were 100% sure that it was correct.

[WhemeStar]

I think a hard meta case is the best kind of case

[SirCakez]

I know imp isn’t always right they scumread me. Difference is they said they have a hard meta case on peta and they were 100% sure that it was correct.

what's your point? them thinking it's 100% correct does not = 100% correct in reality

[WhemeStar]

I don’t know I’m inclined to believe them especially because they were the ones who got killed over someone like you.

And then peta coming out with a bad wall of quotes on me and then saying that he’s who scum need to die as he’s the only mis lynch available is extremely lamest and scummy.

[SirCakez]

Why would I be killed when the gun holder said I was their top SR at the end of yesterday?

[SirCakez]

This debate is pointless

[WhemeStar]

I think HUB flip makes you town.

[ScrewTheTells]

Okay Mush, basically everything you said is plain wrong. I'm having a hard time submitting this post because I had to edit it multiple times, to tone it down and to make it less of a personal attack. I'll try to keep the overall thrust brief and contained here: I mean that's the logical conclusion isn't it? Before you flipped town I thought your reasoning was so bad you must be scum, and now that you're proven to be not scum, all I'm left with is that your reasoning is just that bad.

TLDR for everyone else: basically Mush is wrong and not_mafia should be top shot.

Okay now that I got that out of the way, I still have to refute your points so that other people understand what I mean. They can check the facts themselves to see I'm not just making up bullshit.

You were still pretty loud about Imperium on Day 3.

I dare you to quote me. From the start of the Day 3 flip I told Imperium that they were less scummy than what I stated previously. I also conversed with them more directly than Day 2 since I was less concerned with unknowingly wasting conversation time with scum. I was pretty loud about wanting them to actually put down their petapan case like they promised, not that I was confident they were scum. Go ahead quote me where I said I was confident Imperium was scum because I'm pretty sure I didn't.

Or not because guess what, you don’t mention scumreading HUB/Norfolk once for all of Day 3

Does asking them to be shot count? I already quoted myself about that in my previous post. If you mean I didn't literally say "guys I still scumread HUB" I think that's because it's clearly not necessary. If I've been yelling that they should be shot for Days 1 and 2 and I don't say "I'm reconsidering", everyone can rightly assume I still want them shot.

I do admit that I was being more cooperative with HUB than say, Not_mafia. Because I thought the HUB wagon was going well anyway and they'll probably be shot, I wanted to bait out more content from HUB. HUB also happened to be very active and willing to indulge in answering since he was desperate to save himself. So instead of just shoving "YOU'RE SCUM" in their face, I asked them questions instead. I didn't get anything too useful, but hey you gotta try.

Regarding Duchess: okay you have that correct. I didn't really have a strong scum read on Duchess, I was basically okay with the shot due to them being close enough to my other scum reads on Day 2 (falls within margin of error of a Norfolk/Not_mafia Day 2 shot). Since then, the margins of error have narrowed. I've become even more confident about Not_mafia since their behaviour didn't get any more towny as the Days advanced and more game-info came to light, which I expect would prompt any town player to do something. In fact I think Not_mafia has gone backwards and lurked more than on earlier Days, imo.

Yeah, Norfolk was red. Norfolk was also DEAD WEIGHT. Duchess was putting work in, big time.

I dunno, both of their death-bed posting activity seems like desperate scum. They both just pushed hard for an alternative wagon. I mean, I really don't see a difference. You can share some details if you like.

What are you saying here right now that you couldn’t say as scum in this position? Why should I read this as you having thoughts and not panic spew as I nail the scumteam to the wall?

Does it look like I'm panicking about scum dying though? I'm panicking about you ignoring the perfectly good Not_mafia shot and playing russian roulette with our win chances. If you also think Not_mafia is scum then there's definitely more worlds where town-STT would be yelling about this than worlds where scum-STT would be bussing this hard. So am I to conclude that you do not think Not_Mafia is scum? That is very concerning and means I must yell louder.

Oh, which reminds me. The one and only insightful thing I posted on Day 3 was pointing out how your tone and attitude changed DRAMATICALLY once I got in control.

Yeah, that also reminds me. You better cross this out from your list of Day 3 insights because it's also nothing but bullshit. I actually had a response to this when you wrote it but it was too much of a tangent with the other stuff going on, and at the time you were doing your mysterious reaction testing so I put it on the back-burner.

Yeah my tone changed dramatically because you went from suspected probably-scum to confirmed town. LOL how do you think people normally react to that sort of revelation? And despite what you think of me in this game, it's just one facet of me you're viewing through the distrust of mafia. I'll just say that I think I'm a pretty nice person in general if I may say so myself. So when I'm being an aggressive asshole that's usually because I'm going up against a player in a game who is actively undermining my win condition, and a certain level of aggression is what the players signed up for. So that includes when I think you're scum, and when I think you're town doing bad plays as you would if you don't take the Not_mafia case seriously.

I think I'm pretty nice with people I'm trying to cooperate with to win! I was ready to work together with you, the confirmed town, and possibly Imperium, who was less likely scum on Day 3, and that's exactly what you observe. The fact that you think this is some psychology tell that you can extrapolate is just another example of your failure -- Okay okay I said I was gonna not make this personal right? Look, even when I'm in asshole-mode I don't want to cross that line, and that's another reason I re-adjusted on Day 3. After the drama between you and petapan I thought maybe I was too aggressive even if we can assume you are scum; I wouldn't want to ruin a scum player's day by attacking them so personally in a way they didn't sign up for. Remember, Imperium praised peta for launching that attack (assuming he's scum). And I solidly disagree with Imperium there, so that got me to do some introspection and post that late apology. And then after all that you flipped town; that just totally got me to try hard being nice, but look where we are again...

Okay I'm gonna pledge to not respond to any of these lines of reasoning anymore, unless sufficiently new and different points are raised. So I can cool off and try to be nice again.

[SirCakez]

STT why does it matter? Not mafia will be yeeted very shortly anyways.

[Not_Mafia]

Not before I shoot you

[MUSHSHAGANA]

So, turns out I won’t have a keyboard. I’ll post last thoughts in phone form around after I find/eat food.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Alright. I’m doing three things other than this, so it’s haphazard and slipshod as hell. Also, I’m on the phone still, so I’m not able to do awesome arrangement of those thoughts. This is stream of consciousness brain puke.

First, I want to address the thing about STTs whole change in attitude. As I pointed out originally, that didn’t just apply to me and Imperium. That applied to every player in the list: a complete and total change in approach. Totally different way of communicating, which still isn’t totally back — this has certain missing elements, like, well, certainty, but also that sense of being unwilling to humor people they find incorrect. Not necessarily mockery, but a dismissiveness for sure. Not present here. I do not feel like the me v petapan thing would be enough to cover the degree and scope of the change — HUB got more consideration than any of STTs other scum targets have, and it’s difficult to break a whole personality overnight. Also think it forgets that the change there was only after I got the gun, NOT proximal to petapan’s push on me.

But most importantly, this latest one feels fake. I mean, it feels more natural than STTs earlier posts, there’s emotional wrestling and explanation of mental state to outline the overall trajectory. But that doesn’t feel like /STT/. Read a few posts from any other STT game, choose whatever ones you like, and you’ll agree with me: this isn’t normal STT posting. Period. It feels like someone who isn’t a rationalist and isn’t using Bayesian probability to reason through things. And STT, being a rationalist type, would you not agree that you are probably more self-aware than the average person? More calculated, and more conscious of how you present yourself?

The problem with that is that because you know what you’re doing as you do it and how it looks, every time you show evidence of the human being behind the Bayesians, you are WELL within your scum range still. Moreover! Scum-STT has more reason to appease me than town-STT, even if I have the gun, because town-STT wants to get the gun out of this fucking idiot’s hands and win the game already — if I’m intractable, town-STT probably doubles down unless it’s an ELo situation.

By contrast! Scum-STT has more survivalism than the average scumplayer, because of all the reasons I mentioned that town-STT doesn’t necessarily work with me, just applied to the scumteam instead of the town. More so if STT perceives the scumteam as incompetent.

So, that’s the deal there. I wanted that absolutely crystalline before I moved on. More thoughts in next few posts.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

My thoughts on Dunn are complex. But I like Dunn for town within the context of the whole gamestate.

So, let’s rewind to end of Day 2: i townread Imperium and unwnd, scumread Duchess and Cakez, and was focusing on sorting Dunn and petapan — who I was scumreading, but without much confidence. Suddenly, townreads gone, and the next post is Lotus saying he changed his mind. I need a mind blowing discovery to get me back in the gamestate, I tell Lotus as much while trying to not be too obvious about where I’m at, and then it’s a Duchess shot anyway. Well. GREAT. And then I get the gun! And I’m screwed.

(At least I prepped the gift box and Tyulpan mortar thing well beforehand...)

One thing to note here is that Dunn was not nearly reactive enough and wasn’t interacting enough with my townreads to disrupt them.

Now, one thing you’ll notice on Day 3 is Dunn pushes back on me a lot but never tries to guide my hand. At least five other players did, so I don’t think that’s necessarily scum-indicative, considering one is now flipped town and one was Cakez, who I townread. I think NOT doing it is more town indicative (lurkers excepted), because scum have a chance to guide me into a disastrous miselimination there; if it won’t destroy their positioning they should always try to get me on their preferred target, or at least echo someone else in hopes of guiding the next shot in that direction. Like. That’s nearly a game winner.

Dunn just throws his hands up like “I’m sick of this shit” when I unveil that I’ve been bluffing to try and get any content I can use out of the player list.This is Dunn’s chance to get into my townreads and save the game for scum, but no, instead... nothing. Makes sense enough as town, doesn’t make much as scum.

My one doubt is pretty flimsy, it’s the Day 2 Beetlejuicing Dunn did with me. It might mean nothing, but it’s still concerning to me and I think it’s enough to shove Dunn into my nulls. He’s top of them, because there’s a much better chance of petapan (very weak associative) or NM (based on only two posts in that ISO that seem AI to me) going red 3 from where I’m at... but it is nice to have someone for that last ELo slot, in case we go two red and two green and it’s all down to the wire. I think unless someone gets a galaxy brained idea, Dunn always loses against the other likely slots in endgame. Given I like unwnd and Cakez for the most townie here and I would hope none of my targets are both green and foolish enough to shoot in there without a very compelling reason that they for some reason haven’t shared... I’m willing to give Dunn the benefit of the doubt for now.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Time to address counterfactuals.

Wheme, if you’re green, somehow, your shot will decide the game. If you do it without serious thought, you are gambling for the entire town. I have no idea what the hell you’re seeing right now, but I cannot see it. Consider that you might be as blind to the actual game as I am to the one you are seeing.

STT, if you’re green, guess what: I trust you to do pretty well. Don’t be a complete fool about it is all.

If Wheme goes green, I have to step back to scumreading Cakez as a rule right now. The slots aren’t anti-aligned by nature, but because there is only one slot in the gamestate for why I lost the plot, and Wheme and Cakez are the only ones who can fill it. It’s one or the other. Helps that Cakez is pushing for Wheme pretty strongly, of course: miseliminating there always looks bad for Cakez. Now, of course, if I whiff on Wheme I die. This is, like I said, addressing counterfactuals. Giving my thoughts for extremely unlikely scenarios, because the unlikely ones are the ones I won’t be here for.

Think that covers it for now. I’ll shoot later tonight. My wrists are on fire.

[Not_Mafia]

Shoot Wheme, he's obvscum

[WhemeStar]

Shoot Wheme, he's obvscum

Ur next

[WhemeStar]

Mush have you said why you think I’m scum I don’t think anyone has gave good reasons they are just saying I’m scum