Warehouse 13: The Mafia Game (Game Over)

[SirCakez]

Math why are you obsessed with wagonomics

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

scum disinterest in their own survival implies the two wagons are both on scum rather than town/scum

ergo cakes is scum

[MathBlade]

Math why are you obsessed with wagonomics

Because of probability/odds.

When I stray from that and use gut my reads go bad.

At least one scum in you/Titus/Dunn is well worth the focus then see who doesn’t want to elim there.

There’s no guarantee someone bussed Mastina and if there are bussers no more than 2 is likely. So best 2/8 odds (1/4) so best to look off wagon. In other words if I grant scenarios most favorable to your look off wagon argument we’d have an equal shot and I don’t see two+ bussers on Mastina.

So at this point it’s between you and Titus and Dunn.

[Bell]

I don't care what other people think. If I think you're town for your self-meta, I'll defend you.

[Prism]

Does any1 have any good reasons for why Cake has to be town here?

"Good" is the tough qualifier here. I liked the way he voted mastina, the way he talked about his claim Day 1, and for questionable meta. This is very weak.

Right now I'm pretty frustrated that everyone seems to be going "Well it's my reads that are right", cross their arms waiting for something to happen, rather than actually being proactive and trying to prove themselves wrong. At least you're asking but the entire town has done literally nothing for the entire day outside of 1/2 isolated sequences. The only reason I'm not naming names and getting specific is that people will just get defensive about how they

totally have

done more than everybody else which is equally useless.

Anyway I'll finish up the Spiffeh/bork ISOs, try to read Dunnstral, and after that I guess read Cakez. Tammy is worth a read but being real there's 0 chance she gets voted today so w/e

[Prism]

Like, here's a fun exercise for the table. Answering publicly is absolutely encouraged.

Who is a player you have changed your mind on, or at least had your view of challenged in a way that made you

actually doubt the read

\, in the last calendar week, and why?

[Battle Mage]

^ I've changed my mind on Pooky a few times. I'm thinking Pooky-town here, based on meta. And also Mathblade - I've gone from a hard scumread to probably fairly neutral in the context of a large number of scummy players. Meta-wise, it feels more like scum mathblade, but I dunno. feels like he's been the voice of reason more often lately.

also while I'm here, I am quite surprised at how activity has really fallen away. makes me think either we have the scumteam pretty nailed in the consensus pool, or we are way off the mark. A mis-elim today and probably worth revisiting everything tomorrow. it is weird to think that Cakez' hypothetical partners wouldn't be doing SOMETHING to help here...

[Bell]

Like, here's a fun exercise for the table. Answering publicly is absolutely encouraged.

Who is a player you have changed your mind on, or at least had your view of challenged in a way that made you

actually doubt the read

\, in the last calendar week, and why?

Flashs of paranoia on Pooky, I've almost voted Cakez like 3 separate times. Consistently considered just executing the least active until morale improves, but there are simply too many people just kind of coasting to make that a real strategy.
I'm mainly annoyed.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

"Good" is the tough qualifier here. I liked the way he voted mastina, the way he talked about his claim Day 1, and for questionable meta. This is very weak.

I guess we just disagree about whether the way he voted mastina was good.

like I just don't see that as the vote of a TPR hanging on the edge of death who is vote-pushing the only viable wagon other than him on a player that he believes flips scum.

I believe his vote is the vote of a scum reluctantly voting his scum buddy because there's nothing else for him to do.

[Prism]

"Good" is the tough qualifier here. I liked the way he voted mastina, the way he talked about his claim Day 1, and for questionable meta. This is very weak.

I guess we just disagree about whether the way he voted mastina was good.

like I just don't see that as the vote of a TPR hanging on the edge of death who is vote-pushing the only viable wagon other than him

on a player that he believes flips scum.

I believe his vote is the vote of a scum reluctantly voting his scum buddy because there's nothing else for him to do.

Is this referring to mastina? I don't think Cakez was scumreading her too heavily at the time of the vote. He does start off suggesting she's scum but this weakens over time into just "would vote" territory whcih is questionable!

I think the reluctant vote after Titus/Dunn both fail is pretty in line with this.

Also, there's plenty to do. Voting her is an opportunity to salvage something via distancing. The verbal reluctance is somewhat advanced, and given Cakez has played for a few years

god I hope he knows to do things like that sometimes

, but I lean town for it.

[Prism]

^ I've changed my mind on Pooky a few times. I'm thinking Pooky-town here, based on meta. And also Mathblade - I've gone from a hard scumread to probably fairly neutral in the context of a large number of scummy players. Meta-wise, it feels more like scum mathblade, but I dunno. feels like he's been the voice of reason more often lately.

also while I'm here, I am quite surprised at how activity has really fallen away. makes me think either we have the scumteam pretty nailed in the consensus pool, or we are way off the mark. A mis-elim today and probably worth revisiting everything tomorrow. it is weird to think that Cakez' hypothetical partners wouldn't be doing SOMETHING to help here...

I think I've set the bar a bit low for Pooky scum, but I definitely liked his posts analyzing Cakez progression/calling out that Cakez blatantly doesn't have shit on him other than that Pooky was aggressive towards him (which is very Pooky NAI)

MathBlade I continue to go back and forth on, no fucking clue lmao. Posting is often absolutely fucking insane, which is a valid strategy as scum but their qualitative evaluations of players is very hit/miss and the insistence on wagonomics null.

I was really surprised and glad to see you being the first one to answer; the game could use more of your posts. You mentioned considering bork, what makes you willing to go there/what do you think about Spiffeh?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

dude

imagine you are holding a town power role.

imagine you are 1 vote away from being elimmed

on

day

one.

Would you really be so weak and feeble?

Like cmon

[MathBlade]

Like, here's a fun exercise for the table. Answering publicly is absolutely encouraged.

Who is a player you have changed your mind on, or at least had your view of challenged in a way that made you

actually doubt the read

\, in the last calendar week, and why?

Bell.

I still have gut he is scum with Titus and Cakez but the number of worlds he would be scum is in tiny so best to leave Bell alone.

[MathBlade]

Does any1 have any good reasons for why Cake has to be town here?

"Good" is the tough qualifier here. I liked the way he voted mastina, the way he talked about his claim Day 1, and for questionable meta. This is very weak.

Right now I'm pretty frustrated that everyone seems to be going "Well it's my reads that are right", cross their arms waiting for something to happen, rather than actually being proactive and trying to prove themselves wrong. At least you're asking but the entire town has done literally nothing for the entire day outside of 1/2 isolated sequences. The only reason I'm not naming names and getting specific is that people will just get defensive about how they

totally have

done more than everybody else which is equally useless.

Anyway I'll finish up the Spiffeh/bork ISOs, try to read Dunnstral, and after that I guess read Cakez. Tammy is worth a read but being real there's 0 chance she gets voted today so w/e

To be fair there isn’t much that can prove me wrong.

The odds are scum are in Titus/Dunn/Cakez mathematically.

I don’t particularly care who of which three because it’s almost certain scum are there and Pooky is my top townread and so like I don’t see a reason not to sheep him. The person shading him is in my PoE and the other person shading him Tammy just seems like she has too many townreads problem rather than a genuine scumread.

[MathBlade]

So unless someone explains a D1 narrative where Mastina was bussed and Cakez is town I don’t care.

I think Mastina could be bussed if Cakez is scum but if Cakez is town there’s a tiny AF scum pool.

Elimming Cakez solves that problem of D1.

[Prism]

dude

imagine you are holding a town power role.

imagine you are 1 vote away from being elimmed

on

day

one.

Would you really be so weak and feeble?

Like cmon

I think this is a good point. Looking back at the vote on Page 83, it actually comes right after Bell swaps from mastina to Cakez. At this point it seems a Cakez flip is completely inevitable because Bell was one of the key people shoving it, and even I had basically no hope that Bell would actually swap back shortly thereafter.

I just finished reading Spiffeh so want to collate the posts/notes I took, but this is a really good point Pooky so thank you.

[borkjerfkin]

Who is a player you have changed your mind on, or at least had your view of challenged in a way that made you actually doubt the read\, in the last calendar week, and why?

Titus.

I think that a lot of later Titus posts have made me doubt my earlier scumread.
Gutwise, I think a lot of Titus' later posts look town.
3636 to me doesn't seem manipulative and maybe can explain the earlier fixation on math.
3628 looked pretty town - it was a reachout that didn't really serve any interest but to get the game back on track after a misflip.
3545 looked town. BM is a pretty easy target if town; this is null if BM isn't town, but I like the take.

The thing holding me back from this:
The VCA arguments seem to be TMI based on Cakez' alignment.
3457 is the best example of this - all Titus' VCA arguments basically assume the eventuality that Cakez is going to flip town, and I can't see why Titus' would base so many foundational reads on that tenet unless she knew cakez was, in fact, going to flip town.

[MathBlade]

Who is a player you have changed your mind on, or at least had your view of challenged in a way that made you actually doubt the read\, in the last calendar week, and why?

Titus.

I think that a lot of later Titus posts have made me doubt my earlier scumread.
Gutwise, I think a lot of Titus' later posts look town.
3636 to me doesn't seem manipulative and maybe can explain the earlier fixation on math.
3628 looked pretty town - it was a reachout that didn't really serve any interest but to get the game back on track after a misflip.
3545 looked town. BM is a pretty easy target if town; this is null if BM isn't town, but I like the take.

The thing holding me back from this:
The VCA arguments seem to be TMI based on Cakez' alignment.
3457 is the best example of this - all Titus' VCA arguments basically assume the eventuality that Cakez is going to flip town, and I can't see why Titus' would base so many foundational reads on that tenet unless she knew cakez was, in fact, going to flip town.

Titus as scum tends to assume what she wants or what is beneficial to her. That if Titus is scum, may not be TMI.

And I agree. Titus never really considered Cakez scum which is why if Cakez flips scum she’s a likely partner and she’s desperate to escape the VCA she herself made.

Which is why I made her the challenge like literally 1000s of posts ago. I think she as scum bet all her cards on Pooky being wagoned to get some air.

I don’t think she white knights Cakez here unless she thinks she can put the wagon back on me with Bell’s help though. I think in Cakez town Titus scum world, she is either scum with Bell or deliberately playing into Bell’s paranoia of me.

I think also in a Cakez town world we learn ironically enough that scum are in Titus/Dunn (or if you want to you can put me there) but we literally prove the point I am making so like okay?

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: Cakez

I think this is the play then

[borkjerfkin]

Titus as scum tends to assume what she wants or what is beneficial to her. That if Titus is scum, may not be TMI.

And I agree. Titus never really considered Cakez scum which is why if Cakez flips scum she’s a likely partner and she’s desperate to escape the VCA she herself made.

this is fair and i don't know how to estimate the likelihood of it vs the hypothesis i presented above but the point is well taken

[Prism]

So first, I think Spiffeh's behavior around the mastina hammer is a lot better than people give it credit for.

Spoiler: Wall of quotes about mastina with commentary

I agree with a lot of what Prism said about Cakez' play style difference between this game and Xenoblade, and found his recent posts to be not awful so I'm sticking with my town lean on him.

When deciding between mastina and Titus, I can say that I have seen several glimmers of town!Titus whereas mastina has basically been a blank slate since the beginning of the game and has remained that way throughout.

I think mastina's Prism flavor case is trash but I don't think it is necessarily alignment indicative for her. I thought her avoidance of the thread early on could have been scum indicative as I have only seen inactive mastina be scum, but I thought her transition to a more consistent (albeit less than I would like) activity was encouraging. It scares me to say that it's a possibility that all three viable wagons could be Town here.

However, the fact that I can point to things I townread from Titus makes me want mastina limmed over her. I do understand why several players want Titus limmed because of her defeatist attitude, so all I can say is that if Titus lives today I hope she is able to reset and pick it up on Day 2.

I also like the wagon-comp of mastina better than the others? Three town reads in sangres, Bell, and Prism, and even Battle Mage's more recent posts make me feel better about him.

I really just want Nacho to swoop in and save the Day with a five star case on some obvscum that none of us are seeing but I shouldn't hold out hope for that.

VOTE: mastina

A+ posting choosing mastina over both Cakez and Titus.

but i'm more spooked by the last minute shift here than anything else because titus is just sitting there, mastina is MIA, and yet there's momentum

If you're talking about the recent votes on mastina, who specifically are you spooked by on that wagon?

Very good questioning of bork, getting in the way of counterpushes to mastina. There are multiple followsup to this but the most eloquent and brilliant is 2528 which zeroes in on why bork was more hostile with the listed voters. 3349.

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'll be around to condense elsewhere but can we do this?

Swaps to Dunnstral. This shouldn't be a red flag at all imo given Spiffeh's reads Day 1. This vote really only comes after Cakez/BM decide to wagon Dunn.

I am just at a loss at this point.

Even mastina's recent content looks Town to me.

I have no opinion about the claim and it does not affect my Cakez read, I am still town leaning him by play.

I might just throw away all my reads and start fresh tomorrow, I am so NOT on the same page as a lot of people that are probably Town and I am starting to think it's more of a me problem then a them problem.

Again, will be on for deadline to push a lim through.

I do think it's CONVENIENT of Pooky to actually start contributing now that we are close to our deadline/page count limit.

There are a few things to this. First is that he defends mastina's recent content but is very adamant about not going on Cakez ("adamant" comes more from the below quote a bit later). sangres similarly thought mastina's posting around that time was good even though I found it pretty trash, so pretty understandable imo. Who is he hoping for other than mastina/Dunnstral at this point? Pooky line is extremely in line with Spiffeh's Day 2 start.

Can you guys (sangres, Tammy) elaborate on what makes the claim suspect beyond flavor reasons? I thought Cakez's play around the claim was pretty Town and I felt his sass about potentially getting limmed for flavor reasons was really genuine.

I don't think the role clashes with Tammy's claimed role either. If Cakez is scum here he really snowed me and I don't think he's ever done that before.

Defending Cakez/forcing two people currently on mastina to justify potentially swapping off.

tl;dr: Dude completely shuts down the possibility of him voting the two counterwagons to mastina, swaps off temporarily when his top scumread gets voted. Shocking.

I really like his content around bork even though I have disagreed for the most part.

Spoiler: Two select quotes on bork+commentary

VOTE: borkjerfkin (willing to vote DGB too as that might be more attainable)

If I were to redo my reads list I would put borkjerfkin in null, I may have overcorrected a bit when he reacted well to my initial pressure on him. I'm sensing a lack of urgency from his recent posts? Like he doesn't really care? We're so close to deadline and I feel like as town he'd notice how divided the wagons are and be more active in gathering players like ffery and Tammy and trying to lockdown the best lim for today, but he's kinda just going with the flow.

Again, could just be me having unfair expectations, but I feel like there's something missing here that was present in Tenet and I can't put my finger on it.

This still applies. I still feel he phoned it in as the Day was wrapping up and feel he would try to work with town reads (especially ffery) to secure a good lim and he was kinda just around, halfheartedly pushing Titus until swapping his vote to mastina at the end of the Day.

Of the final lim wagon on mastina I think his vote is the most likely bus vote. He mentions being spooked by the sudden votes on mastina here and lists myself, Prism, and sangres as the votes that scared him here, which is almost unbelievable to me coming from town!bork. It would be a different story if bork had continued to vocalize his paranoia and persisted with this train of thought for the rest of the Day, or attempted to engage with myself, Prism, or sangres about our votes on mastina, but this is the last time he mentions mastina or the three of us until he naked votes mastina at the end of the Day.

I understand that we were condensing on viable wagons because the Day was over in a matter of hours, but the fact that he votes mastina without addressing his earlier paranoia reads to me like he recognized calling us out for the mastina votes was a mistake as her lim was becoming more likely and tried to brush it under the rug by being on the inevitable scum flip.

I completely agree with Tammy about his response to me here. As I've already said, it should be clear based on my stances at the end of the Day why I am singling him out over Tammy, but instead he tries to discredit my suspicion by deflecting onto Tammy.

@bork, who do you want limmed today and why? On top of everything I've stated above, I feel a lot of your posts today are surface level and I have no idea where your head is at.

This is very good posting. I liked bork's interrogation of me/sangres/Spiffeh itself, but the issue is that bork is fine harddefending partners Day 1, and Spiffeh is right that there's 0 attempts to actually engage with or work with us. bork just votes mastina over Cakez in 2061 and calls it a day. I've been way too laxy with just assuming he was busy. This post is entirely consistent with how Spiffeh's been treating bork all along. He's actively set up bork to succeed multiple times w/ the lim question and the reachouts.

Instead of grandstanding about it: what was bad about my posts in a way that you're applying scum motivation to?
and I dunno; you basically vote parked me all day yesterday, but you seem to feel that you have to qualify the fact that you want me gone now by virtue of my bad end of day posts and that makes me further question the earnestness of your vote being where it was in the first place yesterday.

I dunno. Fucking talk to me about it. I'm town, and I'm resetting today. I suggest you do the same.

The posts that bothered me are below (surprise, they're all about me!):

I feel like Spiffeh has been vocally talking about wanting to vote DGB today but has patently avoided doing it, even in the face of one of the hardest scumreads I've seen this game (and certainly harder than he should be ostensibly scumreading me at this particular juncture based on what he's posted)
Like in the same post of "Hey I think this is a scumclaim from DGB (which is not contrary to anything he's previously stated; doesn't vote there) but lemme tell you about bork here hint hint"

When I think the town thing to here is to leave me until tomorrow if he really thinks we're both scum

this heavily imples DGB scum

Pushing me today in general is whatever, but we're close to deadline and you're where you are and Spiffeh is where he is at

I realize spiffeh posted his "this is why I'm not on DGB" right now like right above me but that's still how I feel

I already addressed why your interpretation of it was wrong in 3153. To be honest I was like 100% sure you and DGB were scum buddies after 3141 and I was all set to call that out today had DGB flipped scum. Regardless, I think a quick read through my posts Day 2 would tell you that DGB was always my second choice and I had no problem with its lim. I wasn't around as the DGB wagon took off and by the time I returned it was at L-2 or L-1? and felt no need to add my vote in before I was done catching up. I was not avoiding it. You did a decent amount of talking about DGB but only voted it for like 25 minutes and never went back. What is the difference between my not being on her lim wagon and yours?

More importantly, my interpretation of your read on me Day 2 was that you didn't like my push on you but you were still torn. I don't think I was even in the bottom row or players in your reads list. However, in 3141 you seem to be scum reading me to the point that MY actions there "heavily implied DGB scum", which is not only bad because preflip associatives are bad, but is a disconnect from how you were struggling to read me prior. And I understand you were supposedly scum reading DGB but I feel it was a pretty garbage reason to give your blessing for the DGB wagon.

I feel I have engaged you a fair amount this game so I don't really buy the whole "talk to me about it" shtick. I have talked significantly about my issues with you and not much you have provided has changed my mind. I am looking forward to your reset as I desperately want to identify you as Town if you are Town. To start, who are your top three scum reads?

So first this account of his vote is very consistent with his entire Day 2, but the bolded is ridiculously, ridiculously sharp, and Spiffeh is right that bork really just...is dropping the ball in reading Spiffeh other than to complain about Spiffeh tunneling him.

tl;dr: Consistent attitude+approach towards bork all game, multiple genuine reachouts/setting up bork to succeed, incredibly sharp observations and posting that are seriously worth reading.

I spoilered this but 100% these two quotes in the spoiler are worth picking through.

I'm not putting an emphasis on tracing through all of these but I've seen no red flags with Spiffeh's treatment of anyone, really, beyond being understandably conflicted about mastina and mastina. Consistent push/followups on bork. Natural progressions on Cakez/Pooky. Literally scum-Spiffeh has been begging all game to trade 1 for 1 in a way that really makes no sense given how relentlessly clean his play has been.

The only redflag to me is that he's less emphatic in pushing Dunn today than he should be. That's literally it.

This is the last time I am revisiting this slot without someone actively making a scumcase on Spiffeh. This was a good use of my time but until someone really digs into this slot and gives something more substantial than "but they're pushing me T_T" and being willfully blind to every explanation Spiffeh gives I will not be revisiting this slot until elo.

[Prism]

ie. If Spiffeh is scum, I fucking tried. Anyone who disagrees with me, your turn to work through his ISO and wall it out.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Cakez

I think this is the play then

Agreed.

I think Titus could be town to be clear. I just think the argument is bad.

I just think Cakez+Titus+Bell is most likely.

Titus can’t attack me or she loses (or worse succeeds and scum claims in the process)
SirCakez can’t attack me because I was off DGB and can’t really refute Pooky not being dead as there is no real argument that I am scum that doesn’t answer it.

So Titus paints me as a not team player for being too narrow despite me following a mafia fundamental you don’t hunt in the bussers after a scum flip without a good reason.

Cakez was buddying me at the start.

Bell likely pushes me because Titus wants me off my game. I just have a hard time seeing Bell town here. Admittedly there’s good points here like Prism said. But if I am right on Titus scum please revisit Bell.

I also think Bell passed Spiffeh a vig so it won’t matter tbh and it’s a protown thing that my slot gets vigged anyway but if not I will be pleasantly surprised.

If not Bell (because the mechanics argument is good) spiffeh’s play around Titus has been horrible.

I think we need a second scum flip in the PoE.

[MathBlade]

ie. If Spiffeh is scum, I fucking tried. Anyone who disagrees with me, your turn to work through his ISO and wall it out.

I think Spiffeh is only scum if Titus is. I wouldn’t make a case until then.

[Prism]

My reads probably would sort into:

{LLD, Bell, Prism, Pooky, Math}
{GreyICE, Cakez}
{Spiffeh, Tammy, BM}
{Dunn, Titus, DGB}

Ctrl+F searching Cakez in your ISO doesn't give a lot of direct thoughts on him, just a bit of team speculation with Titus and you agreeing that it's worth seeing whether Cakez was a town counterwagon. You also didn't like people thinking your "fuck off" was out of scumrange.

What's been the evolution of your thinking on Cakez to the point he's now a higher tier vote choice?