Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Not_Mafia]

Well i'd probably post in the hood too if i felt there was a point, but i don't really. I don't mind having an public conversation instead.

This is not what you were saying, you were outright refusing to post there for any reason. Then tried to deflect it onto me.

Whatever.

Good talk bro

[Hopkirk]

three or four things from Norway feel much more likely to come from town but who cares about sorting the small hood

I'm not taking your jokes as 100% serious, but I do believe scum tend to use jokes in an attempt to be charismatic or to deflect scrutiny of their votes or scumreads. If you're town you'll be better served by not fixating on an early scumread on you and instead continuing to hunt the real mafias.

It's also odd to say I was "upset" with your RVS vote

and yet you haven't said hello to me?
can you remind me of your playstyle? I remember you being fun to play with but don't think we've played in a whiiiiile now (i have used your name in place of the word guilty in that time though, so thanks for that). some of your stuff so far feels kind of surgical?

[Hopkirk]

I would not want that as scum. I rarely even put in effort as scum.

can you not admit to meta i'm using to partially inform a read on you

[Hopkirk]

What other substance am I supposed to have already put into the thread?

Imo, the first order of business was figuring out which neighborhood we are going to be voting in today, so that is the conversation I have been engaging with the most so far. At this point, I think I am pretty settled on saying that we should vote from the 6p neighborhood.


At this point, I am really waiting for more content from Dunnstral, Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, and marcistar before I can really get started with my new goal of figuring out who we should vote for today.

The only read I actually have so far is a town read on Marci, because I think scum!marci would have played into my banter to attempt to pocket me, but no pocket attempt was made.

Marci is literally successfully pocketing you...

I think that the mafia put Norwee+N_M in the 3 person group because they knew it would lead to conflict, and put a lot of noise in the thread. And that strategy appears to be paying off, because they are doing exactly that. But that still leaves the question of whether you did it, and the 2 town players are falling for it, or if one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other.

I am a little surprised at the amount of posts coming form Not_Mafia, in my expereince with him he has been a lot more sparse. In our last game he made 63 posts spread out over 30 days, and then in this game he is at 29 posts in like 6 hours, and that was also a game that had both Norwee and Not_Mafia in it...

So I am a bit suspicious that this is that "one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other"

So of the three of you, I think it might actually be Not_Mafia... but he is such a hard person to read, by design, and it seems like his reputation has resulted in him almost having a site wide immunity from Day 1 eliminations.

So I am kind of glad we are not voting in the 3 player neighborhood today.

is this good posting or fake content posting. someone sort it for me

[Hopkirk]

let's get to the bottom of which one of GL/Lukewarm is locktown and which one is super sus by the time i wake up tomorrow. good luck people

[GuiltyLion]

three or four things from Norway feel much more likely to come from town but who cares about sorting the small hood

I'm not taking your jokes as 100% serious, but I do believe scum tend to use jokes in an attempt to be charismatic or to deflect scrutiny of their votes or scumreads. If you're town you'll be better served by not fixating on an early scumread on you and instead continuing to hunt the real mafias.

It's also odd to say I was "upset" with your RVS vote

and yet you haven't said hello to me?
can you remind me of your playstyle? I remember you being fun to play with but don't think we've played in a whiiiiile now (i have used your name in place of the word guilty in that time though, so thanks for that). some of your stuff so far feels kind of surgical?

this is my first game back after a 9-10 month hiatus, we've only played a couple games together the most recent being Micro 773: Twin Trap which was a terrible game on my end, you got me good as scum in that one

I dunno what specifically you're looking for from me in terms of playstyle, I generally believe in forming solid townreads over scumreads, I tend to push on what I find to be awkward/uncomfortable vibes until we have a few wagons and the gamestate takes shape, maybe even a flip or two at which point I start looking more at voting behavior/wagonomics. historically if I'm getting erroneously scumread it's usually for robotic tone / making reaches in the early game, I tend to try to put pressure on people ASAP even if it means making a bit of a mountain out of a molehill, I think that's what you're getting at by calling me "surgical"? I do try to stay open-minded and constantly re-evaluate and avoid tunnels though, nEE can attest to this (I hope) our last game together that I remember we 1v1d a lot throughout early D1 but I had him town by the end of it

[Bingle]

three or four things from Norway feel much more likely to come from town but who cares about sorting the small hood

Elaborate, please.

[GuiltyLion]

is this good posting or fake content posting [re: Lukewarm's 120]. someone sort it for me

One thing I liked in that post was his comment about NM's activity, I similarly feel NM is playing a lot more involved here, but I was also struggling to draw a firm conclusion from it. I don't believe the increased activity necessarily means NM scum, but Lukewarm also picking up on that could be an uninformed perspective + the rest of the post didn't really feel especially agenda-driven, the "I'm kind of glad we're not voting in the 3 player neighborhood" sentiment I also saw as slightly townish

[Bingle]

I wouldn’t discount an GL/N_M team for example.
It is imperative that the 6P player be pretty good, while the 3p player might suck or be ready to sacrifice themselves.

In fact i think that's a pretty good way to get valuable info.
Players in the 3p should say their reads on the 6p group while the 6p players do the opposite.

Quote for emphasis.

While we should absolutely elim in the 6p today, reads across pools are far more likely to be telling.

[SirCakez]

tl;dr from last game:

very slight numbers advantage to limming in small pool, outweighed entirely by the information advantage of limming in big pool. Also, pooky is probably scum.


VOTE: pooky

This vote will not be counted as this player is not in the game.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 1.1

Not_Mafia (2) - Not_Mafia, Lukewarm
Lukewarm (2) - Hopkirk, GuiltyLion
Bingle (1) - Dunnstral

Not voting (4) - Bingle, Vanderscamp, NorwegianboyEE, marcistar

(expired on 2021-05-24 08:40:00) remain until day end

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to reach a majority.

[Lukewarm]

What other substance am I supposed to have already put into the thread?

Imo, the first order of business was figuring out which neighborhood we are going to be voting in today, so that is the conversation I have been engaging with the most so far. At this point, I think I am pretty settled on saying that we should vote from the 6p neighborhood.


At this point, I am really waiting for more content from Dunnstral, Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, and marcistar before I can really get started with my new goal of figuring out who we should vote for today.

The only read I actually have so far is a town read on Marci,

because I think scum!marci would have played into my banter to attempt to pocket me

, but no pocket attempt was made.

Marci is literally successfully pocketing you...

I think the "no pocket attempt was made" might have oversold my point, and caused you to overlook my true position in bold. I did not mean to say that just anyone would have behaved that way. Specifically, I think scum!marci would have played into the banter.

I am walking into this game on the heels of a game where Marci was scum. In that game, her first couple of posts leaned pretty heavily into bantering back and forth between the player she had played with before. And it worked, that player gave her a town read Day 1. So when I tried to put banter in place with her this game, and she met that banter with suspicion, both here and in the Neighborhood thread, it feels like the opposite of how she reacted in the last game (where she was scum).

So I am concluding that the difference was that in that game, she already knew the other person alignment, and her goal was pocketing the player she played with before, and in this game, her goal is to figure out the alignment of the player she played with before.

[Dunnstral]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I see you were online after the game started, come play

[Bingle]

This vote will not be counted as this player is not in the game.

See, Cakez gets the joke.

[Vanderscamp]

FIRST

[Vanderscamp]

I don't think Ole Gunnar Weebskjær would voluntarily put himself in a neighbourhood with me

Why?

[Vanderscamp]

Ok, i'm on a keyboard finally.
So my first nuanced thought is that it would be weird for Bingle to put himself in the 3P hood as scum when he was put in it as town in the last game and saw how bad it went for Skitter. I feel like Bingle would see himself as a much better player than me or N_M so for him to put himself in there seems really bold. N_M however, might feasibly do it for the memes.
But whatever i think we should eliminate in the 6P hood. Because then we can win in day 1 just like the last time Divide and Conquered was hosted.

I still maintain that it's marginally better to kill into the small pool first, but more important is just to vote the person we think is most likely scum.

But it's imo definitely wrong to want to prefer killing into the big pool, we will win just as easily by killing the scummiest player in the big pool and being right on D4 as we will on D1.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

[Vanderscamp]

I am curious why some people are suggesting to vote from the 6 person neighborhood instead? Is it just for the chance at a Day 1 endgame win? Or am I missing some other benefit to voting there.

In the previous generation of the game that ran on this site (Which i was in),
scum argued for the very same and it was the one in the 6p hood doing it. We eventually eliminated him and we won the game on D1 because everyone towned it up in the game hard while he couldn't keep up, but even though he was scum, what he said was correct.

I'd say it was more that he scummed it up pretty hard!

[Vanderscamp]

Tinfoil theory, Bingle knows i absolutely hate N_M's guts and therefore put is in the same hood so we would destroy each other.

How serious is this comment?
Is it actually a well-known thing that you hate him?

[Vanderscamp]

I think I believe the stuff Norwegian is saying about what he would do as scum regarding the hoods

[Vanderscamp]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

I think that the mafia put Norwee+N_M in the 3 person group because they knew it would lead to conflict, and put a lot of noise in the thread. And that strategy appears to be paying off, because they are doing exactly that. But that still leaves the question of whether you did it, and the 2 town players are falling for it, or if one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other.

I am a little surprised at the amount of posts coming form Not_Mafia, in my expereince with him he has been a lot more sparse. In our last game he made 63 posts spread out over 30 days, and then in this game he is at 29 posts in like 6 hours, and that was also a game that had both Norwee and Not_Mafia in it...

So I am a bit suspicious that this is that "one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other"

So of the three of you, I think it might actually be Not_Mafia... but he is such a hard person to read, by design, and it seems like his reputation has resulted in him almost having a site wide immunity from Day 1 eliminations.

So I am kind of glad we are not voting in the 3 player neighborhood today.

I really dislike the last line (and not just because I dislike the notion of refusing to vote into the 3p pool)

I also think n_m is the scummiest person in the small pool so far for a pretty similar reason, I'm pretty sure he's posted more times so far this game than in the entire game we just played together, and if I thought he was tabled from contention today I would be very far from kind of glad about it.

[Vanderscamp]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I see you were online after the game started, come play

Sorry, was at work, freeish for the next several hours.