In post 469, InsidiousLemons wrote:i think we are actually getting shockingly close to a gamesolve here.
consider the following:
- italiano is conftown via his friendly neighbour night action. you can disbelieve me if you want, but unless there's 3 scum in a 9p there is no reason for me to lie about this
- anya is all but conftown for 352 (the third vote out of five on n_m's wagon), 374, 386 and 388. scumpartner anya has absolutely no reason to work this hard to get others to vote him
- channeldelibird isn't
necessarily
clear, but he makes a valid point in 403 that his play would be pretty atrocious coming from scum. he voted n_m in 345 (only the second vote on the wagon) and left the door open to moving his vote (didn't give a strong reason for voting in the first place and said he "may move it in a bit"), and then just... didn't, even though he was in the thread in the hours leading up to the n_m elim. that's pretty compelling, no?
so that narrows it down to owen, t3, bloodhail, or me.
as i said above (
466), i don't think the case for scum!owen is very strong. anya's point about he and n_m voting boxxy together being negative equity is valid too. i could be wrong, but unless someone brings new evidence to the table i don't see it.
i don't really think it's t3 based on his play this game. see my
312 -- this is a weak townread, so again, i could be wrong, but i don't see a convincing reason why this is scum. his play feels organic enough, and he was the one who put N_M down to E-1. what reason does scum!T3 have for the change of heart in
397?
i'm obviously not going to advocate for my own elimination, so we come to bloodhail.
while posts like
154,
157, and
324 point away from a n_m-bloodhail partnership, he never really makes a concerted push in not_mafia's direction and it would be very hard for him to switch tracks after saying "you will probably need to policy him at some point" (
154). it's wifom-y, but i get the sense that he didn't really expect not_mafia to be the lim D1 (hence "at some point") -- when he said this, there were only 2 votes on N_M. only 6 posts after this:
In post 324, bloodhail wrote:im either giving someone a free pass when i shouldnt be or not_mafia is scum
he switches his vote to... cdb. does this not read like bloodhail sensing the n_m momentum picking up and deciding to push the next most prominent wagon as a counter? and do
395 and
400 not look like covering his tracks when it was all but decided (and, in the case of 400, literally already decided) that not_mafia would be the lim?
tell me what you guys think. am i reading too much into some of bloodhail's posts? maybe. but i do think he's the most likely partner.
