Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS

[T3]

Hello! I'm no sure what the strat is, but are there any rolesthat should claim immediately?

[T3]

VOTE: Flea
Strange fakesolve tbh

[T3]

VOTE: Flea
Strange fakesolve tbh

This just feels like a low-effort consensus vote.

VOTE: T3

Why "strange" eg as opposed to scummy?

It created discussion but idk if that was intentional.

Also raya is town.
UNVOTE: Flea
I guess a push like that doesn't make sense from scuflea but we shouldn't dismiss it.

[T3]

And Umlaut is town.

[T3]

I get why y'all would find Flea's case unconvincing but I don't see how it's scummy at all.

i didn't think the case itself was scummy, mostly i wanted to put pressure on flea so he'd answer me about how he thought i could've gotten confused. which is why this sheep and subsequent retraction stands out so much to me:

VOTE: Flea
Strange fakesolve tbh

This just feels like a low-effort consensus vote.

VOTE: T3

Why "strange" eg as opposed to scummy?

It created discussion but idk if that was intentional.

Also raya is town.
UNVOTE: Flea
I guess a push like that doesn't make sense from scuflea but we shouldn't dismiss it.

it's early, but this is highly unusual for the town!T3 whom i've played with before. i rarely see him back down this easily or immediately, and he tends not to sheep other players so readily and for such little reason. last game i played with him, someone mentioned opportunism as one of T3's scumtells, so i'll be on the lookout for more of this.

Agreeing with Umlaut. It's such a weird take as scum. I feel like this kind of response could have been predicted so why even try pushing that

if you think you can predict how someone will react to something, isn't it usually best to confirm your suspicions? town doesn't care about looking like they made a scummy push (at least not unless they're in real danger of becoming a miselim), so as a way to start discussion rolling it's not a bad idea. in my experience, standing back with your hands on your hips rather than answering questions as flea does in 77 can sometimes come from scum, but he doesn't seem to have really believed much in his push and was more using it as a reaction test. considering it got us out of RVS unprecedentedly early, which is usually not something scum actively tries to do, i'm comfortable with a slight townlean here.

VOTE: T3

flea, what is it from osuka that gives you a slight townlean? i find him incredibly difficult to read especially so early in the game, so i'm curious what you're seeing here, no matter how insubstantial.

I think your meta case is cherry picking - you can read newbie 2061 where I was scumrea dby skitter for exactly this. I was town.

[T3]

T3, i just had a peek at 2061 and skitter replaced out before ever posting. is it possible you meant to reference another game? your play there doesn't seem to match this one at all.

Ah, sorry, 2059.

[T3]

@T3 what made you turn 180 on your vote on Flea in such a short space of time? Feel free to also answer the (related) question I posed earlier ref why "strange" as a choice of description.

The strange was more "i would be surprised if this logic came from town" strange. I then voted. I was then addressed about it, reread, realized it probably isn't that scummy, and unvoted.

[T3]

True.
My defense isn't really just that, my flra read was a read at the time that I had which I now am less sure of.

[T3]

Who's scum rn off the top of your head if not Flea?

No clue, I've got a bunch of townreads but no scumreads.

[T3]

You probably answered already, but how Flea know who didn't refuse PM instantly.

I think Korina said in the op at some point.

[T3]

If you pm someone I think you can click on your outbox to see if it has been opened.

[T3]

I don't think the enchant questioning thing is AI.

[T3]

osuka tone is towny to me by meta. I've only played games with him as scum so not totally sure.

[T3]

osuka tone is towny to me by meta. I've only played games with him as scum so not totally sure.

???????????

how could the two ever possibly go together?

Because your tone is different to me.

[T3]

*sips tea3*

[T3]

It seems like Major minor basically just chose the most convenient wagon to vote for.

[T3]

I don't think the enchant questioning thing is AI.

Why not? I think there are points for both ways.

There are other slots who had done less (and have still done less) and yet you're not applying the same scrutiny to them yet. Strange.

WMFM

(This tell didn't actually work in my last game but I still think it has merit)

Yeah, not the biggest fan of this either.

Feels rather disingenuous on your part, tbh.

This is the same idea again

I think Enchant's analysis on the cult's likelihood of hard-bussing is good and pro-town. I hadn't really put too much thought into that possibility.
@Flea, why is this set-up fishing? I don't really get how it was fishing for anything. Plus wouldn't the scum have a decent idea of the set-up? It's been a while since I've played one of these block set-up games.

Sorry, but believing jailkeeper or rolestopper can stop convert is..

Uuuh. How good are docs and jailkeepers? Unless we have unrecruitable townies, it's safe to assume cult always convert someone, and game will turn in chaos mess on day 2 already.

Also don't get this. They can stop the convert?

Flea was a wagon early on and still has a vote on them.

Lol did MM actually include the co-mod on his list of suspects? Can't believe I missed that, it's self-defensive "please yeet anyone but me" finger-pointing if ever I saw it.

Absolutely agree with this. It's actual proof that no thought was put into who was being attacked. They just grabbed every name that could fit the profile.

It seems like Major minor basically just chose the most convenient wagon to vote for.

What makes Flea convenient?

I'm getting a slight scumread on T3. I do think Major is much scummier though. I just don't want him at E-1 yet.

VOTE: T3

[T3]

Huh. Idk what happened to the quote.

Flea had the Enchant vote on them and was scumread by some.

[T3]

Majors point about Enchant does seem towny but I do tend to gut tr people who post longer posts so idk.

[T3]

VOTE: Raya

This is cult.

elaborate for me <3

random.org never lies

Unless bad luck.

??...….… Why

[T3]

VOTE: Enchat

[T3]

Kind of think the solve is just {Major Minor, T3}

Probably right, but I disagree on the T3 part.

[T3]

It makes no sense why Enchant qwould pop in to a serious discussion and random.org vote someone as town.... like eiter that shows 0 motivation to play the game or they're scum.

[T3]

Honestly I think major is getting townier.

[T3]

I remember Enchant as agressive and pushing people late game as scum and stagnant early game.

[T3]

Enchant.
x_x
Catching up.

[T3]

Oh not much to catch up on.

Still keeping my vote on Enchant.

[T3]

UNVOTE: ench
VOTE: major

Putting votes on separate lines for readability.
~ Kori

[T3]

Sadly i could't fight my VI nature and protect self, so:

Spoiler:

I am Town PR. I strongly believe we are toast without CL dead fast anyway. If you want exact role, then go ahead and ask. If other PR will claim, it would be sweet.

Uhhhh wtf

You had, what, two votes on you? This was completely unnecessary.

I planned to do that anyway, that's reason why i asked what you mind about it. I see this as not bad way.

What's done is done but I don't think claiming this was as beneficial to town as it was to scum.

Oh not much to catch up on.

Still keeping my vote on Enchant.

Definitely keeping my vote on you. Enchant claimed PR, unless you think they're gambiting?

I'm looking over the setup matrix now and every possibility has at least one role who could counter a fake Rolestopper claim, so barring a cc we should believe it.

Agreed, this would be one of the worst fakeclaims scum could do.,

I posted that when I hadn't seen enchants claims. Then I unvoted.

[T3]

You posted that after the general PR claim but before the rolestopper claim

Enchants pr claim felt like a scum cop out claim earlier. Like that's the kind of thing I would do as scum in ENchants situation there.

[T3]

You posted that after the general PR claim but before the rolestopper claim

Enchants pr claim felt like a scum cop out claim earlier. Like that's the kind of thing I would do as scum in ENchants situation there.

Enchant only had 2 votes at the time if I recall correctly. I don't think scum would feel enough pressure to fake claim like that.

That's what I'm saying at the time it felt like a scummy thing because they didn't need to.

[T3]

At the time I thought enchant saw a little bit of pressure as scum and panicked, so decided to get the votes off them by claiming just or so they couldn't be ccd.

[T3]

What I'm saying is, at the time when enchant claimed just pr. I thought it was fake. Now ik it's not.

[T3]

No, I'm not ccing.

[T3]

UNVOTE: ench
VOTE: major

Putting votes on separate lines for readability.
~ Kori

Why Major?

Seeing as you're online T3 and I'm already nudging people to actually answer my questions...

Honestly I don't know of anyone better at this point to vote.

[T3]

major thinks flea is scum but won't vote them.

[T3]

BTW marky mark is locktown save for being culted.

[T3]

Hi I'm here.

[T3]

osuka's tione reads as far less confrontational as when he was scum.

[T3]

Eh. Yes, i hear.

Not sure how it help town right now, unless you somehow murder cult with police.

[T3]

From reading this page dw is scummy.

[T3]

no regrets if this flips town ngl

[T3]

Yeah, will have to park that one and revisit tomorrow. If anyone hasn't stated their position on Major (I think most have tbf) it would be good to hear from people pre-flip

--pedit why so? Lack of claim?

Yes.

[T3]

It's MELO, so we should be careful in voting.

[T3]

Enchant, who did you rolestop?

[T3]

There are the 2 OG cultists and then the recruited one. Idk who we should try to find.

[T3]

I think the cop/trackser should out.

[T3]

Actually wait maybe not.

[T3]

Hold up, how do you know the cult leader is a him unless you know who the cult leader is?@Enchant

[T3]

Now that I think about, probably not.

[T3]

If cop outs with an innocent and we ignore Enchant we get a pool of 5. Assuming I'm not the inno that leaves 4 people, at least 2 of which are cult.

[T3]

If Cop has a guilty then there's a 1/2 chance it's cult leader assuming you tracked a scumread (bccult want to cult trs)

[T3]

But we don't know because WIFOM exists.

So actually Tracker guilties are more useful at finding CL than Cop guilties.

[T3]

True, okay.

Cop should claim if they have an innocent, tracker should claim if they have guilty.

[T3]

If cop outs with an innocent and we ignore Enchant we get a pool of 5. Assuming I'm not the inno that leaves 4 people, at least 2 of which are cult.

This only makes sense from your POV lol - we don't know that you are town

?????

I said that post in the quotes from my town POV, but Marky has no way to know I'm town.

[T3]

I think there's just more possibilities there. Maybe someone in the cult PT told him that suggesting that was a bad idea so he retracted it. Maybe he realized it was a bad idea to say as cult, in the exact same way he would've realized it was a bad idea as town.

Please look at the timestamps.

I thought that the other pr should out because I forgot it wasn't melo. Then I thought, hold up, what are the mechanical probabilities of getting CL if the pr outs and went and calculated it.

[T3]

VOTE: raya

[T3]

I think there's just more possibilities there. Maybe someone in the cult PT told him that suggesting that was a bad idea so he retracted it. Maybe he realized it was a bad idea to say as cult, in the exact same way he would've realized it was a bad idea as town.

Please look at the timestamps.

I thought that the other pr should out because I forgot it wasn't melo. Then I thought, hold up, what are the mechanical probabilities of getting CL if the pr outs and went and calculated it.

And why couldn't you have done that as scum? Or maybe is was the second option where you as scum realized that it was a scummy thing to say

Then I do the logic and realize that yes,there are cases in which cop/tracker should out.

[T3]

Let's POE this bad boy - who ISN'T likely to be CL?

Enchant almost certainly not due to un CCed claim
Flea as already mentioned was being v aggressive
Dwlee I don't think hammers end of D1 as CL as the wagon would likely have gone through anyways and it feels like uncessesary attention

That leaves Raya / T3 / Osuka / Umlaut - of these, Umlaut felt v town D1

So basically my d1 POE hasn't really changed, except that Raya/T3 have gone up a bit and Osuka has gone down a bit due to being on/off the town wagon respectively

Umlaut, Enchant, or you would be the likely 3rd cult.

[T3]

Flea + Marky + Osuka scumteam Osuka cult leader solve SUBMIT

Replace osuka with Raya and that's where I'm at.

[T3]

I mean if cult leader no actioned then maybe it's still Osuka

VOTE: dwlee

[T3]

I really don't see cult no-recruiting because it means if they lose their leader d2 they're totally screwed. Rolecop could no-investigate but Osuka is still cleared as leader in that case.

That was also my logic.

[T3]

Can we just ignore Enchant?

[T3]

VOTE: Raya
The osuka wagon is terrible.

[T3]

Consider this intent to hammer drop... T3...

mobile vc 2.2:
T3 (2) - Raya, Dwlee
Dwlee (2) - Flea, T3
Raya (2) - Mark, Enchant

VOTE: Raya
The osuka wagon is terrible.

What wagon?

Wait I 'm bad. I got osuka wagon confused with osuka srs.

[T3]

I was town.

[T3]

I think Umlaut was recruited. Tomorrow I think vote Raya.

[T3]

What are the chances osuka flaked anddidn't do an action?

[T3]

I was town.

Vt.

Honestly that flea hammer looks really terrible but after what hapened yesterday I don't think they were culted.

[T3]

That was not hammer i think.

4 votes. 5 needed.

Wait what

[T3]

So Osuka clear, T3 I'm willing to biasclear based on reaction, Enchant is CL clear (with no claimed result I can remember, I might add).

Leaves Dwlee, Marky, Raya, and Umlaut.

I won't lie I skipped over the Marky Raya debate so I'll have to look there before coming to any more conclusions.

T3 whats your thinking on Umlaut currently?

I don't agree actually, i don't think T3 could just mistake he was hammered, either he is bad with attention or imitate it.


I don't want clear T3, i just laugh from your statement, which is literally impossible.

I don't like to say I townslipped but.....


I saw Umlaut and Flea saying stuff about me being at e1.

[T3]

Cultedspec is pointless because of WIFOM but ekither Enchant or Umlaut was recruited in my mind.

[T3]

Umlaut/Raya/Dwlee?

[T3]

uThat was naming a team.
With Enchant it's all just WIFOM but his frustration seems genuine.

[T3]

Also, the vc.

[T3]

Flea? It's hammer time...

[T3]

If this flips cl dwlee is basically confirmed mafia.

[T3]

ugh dwlee stop towntelling you're ruining my solve.

Then I see Flea's post

[T3]

Ugh....

Will ignore: Enchant

Will not vote today by prs: Flea, osuka

Might have been culted: Umlaut, Marky

That leaves dwlee and raya.

[T3]

FOPOV cl is in me dwlee raya.

[T3]

Also Marky couldn't have been culted unless Enchant also was which is impossible cause Enchant claimed to rolestop marky.

Don't scum have a roleblocker?

[T3]

Oh wait nvm

[T3]

Umlaut/Enchant was culted
Flea/osuka are basically clear
100% not cult is Marky

Like raya and dwlee are basically confirmed cult FMPOV. We need to find which oneis the leader.

[T3]

What makes you clear marky?

He was very towny yesterday and can't have been recruited.

[T3]

T3 how would you describe your scum game vs town game?

Early day 1 in my towngame I blurt out a lot of gut reads that are hard to explain. I call people's posts town/scum but I don't explain unless asked. I admit when someone has a better point or is wrong easily.

My scum game is a lot more proactive and focused. I make cases on people and start wagons with an agenda. I often make up reasons to scumread people and then tunnel those even when everyone says I'm wrong.

I'm trying to change my town play to match my scumplay in that I actually explain why and case people because my townplay gets me scumread a lot.

[T3]

Raya is almost 100% cult, no question on that.
Umlaut is also cult?
Enchant was culted.

[T3]

Like maybe...
what if cult tried to recruit Marky but was rolestopped?

[T3]

Your recent posts have definitely been towny, Dwlee. I really doubt Umlaut was an original cult so cult having failed to recruit marky makes the most sense with you town.

[T3]

Raya pretty much always flips cult here regardless of either of our alignments.

[T3]

FMPOV Raya pretty much always flips CL.
Honestly my gut is telling me Enchant wasn't recruited but if we get cl today we lim him tomorrw.

[T3]

Barring extreme deepwolfing Raya and I basicaly havw to be s/t or t/s.

[T3]

Barring extreme deepwolfing Raya and I basicaly havw to be s/t or t/s.

Well I'm pretty confident it's t/s but why can't it be t/t in your eyes?

POE

[T3]

Umlaut/Enchant was culted
Flea/osuka are basically clear
100% not cult is Marky

Like raya and dwlee are basically confirmed cult FMPOV. We need to find which oneis the leader.

[T3]

That's fair.

[T3]

Ugh.

Raya is very likely cult FMPOV. Lim this, then I'll face your wrath if this is town.

[T3]

wtf town

[T3]

Wait nvm lol I thought Korina was saying that I have been killed at deadline.

[T3]

Raya¬is¬still¬cult

[T3]

Raya is almost confirmed cult FMPOV and I honestly don't trust you to lim Raya tomorrow if I flip town.

[T3]

There's going to be Enchant spouting tinfoil, culted Umlaut casually sheeping Cl Raya, Flea and osuka will be reexamined, Dwlee will be being scummy etc.

[T3]

Unless Marky has completely fooled me in which case gj Marky well deserved win Raya has to be cult.

[T3]

I know you're cult.
You know I'm cult (although you don't)
Truce and let everyone else decide?

[T3]

Raya is almost confirmed cult FMPOV and I honestly don't trust you to lim Raya tomorrow if I flip town.

I for one am going to strongly reconsider on Raya if you flip town.

Do you really think I'm culted? That's a weirdly specific accusation. So you think I was town day 1?

You walked away from day 1 pretty much scot free as an almost UTR, and Marky was protected.

[T3]

*whistling*

[T3]

*crickets chriping loudly in the general vicinity of marky mark*

[T3]

VOTE: Raya

[T3]

UNVOTE: Raya

[T3]

Lmao

[T3]

Marky!town the Raya is cl. Dwlee!town then Marky is cl.

[T3]

Why is Dwlee!town raya!CL out of the picture?

Because you weren't on Raya.

[T3]

VOTE: Raya

[T3]

Sup

[T3]

*that moment when me/raya has ben tvt the entire time and cult is Marky Flea and Umlaut*

[T3]

zoinkswtf