Newbie 2066: Gelato 2 -- End!

[T3]

Very

doubt.jpg

[T3]

We played the Tic tac toe open and ydras game.
I think you also replaced into a scum slot in murdercats game but you were only around for a few hours before dying.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Summer Meet

[Vaxkiller]

You seem rather confident T3 is scum, like on a level where you would be really familiar with their scum game.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm familiar with his town game, which makes me notice the strong mood difference he has in this game.

[GuyInFreezer]

Busy today rl so I won’t really be on until tonight

[GuyInFreezer]

I really didn’t want to bother with outside games to read ppl but if the meta is that damning I guess I’ll need to give them a read soon.

[Umlaut]

Here's every wagon of at least 3 votes from Day 1. (I'm coloring myself green because I'm town, if you don't like it make your own list.)

• Clasko (3): Roden, Vaxkiller, Rockhopper
  sang froid (3): Vaxkiller, Rockhopper,
  NotAJumbleOfNumbers
  
  Rockhopper (4): Clasko,
  sang froid
  , T3, Roden
  Vaxkiller (4): Rockhopper, Roden,
  sang froid
  ,
  NotAJumbleOfNumbers
  
  JohnnyFarrar (5):
  sang froid
  , GuyInFreezer,
  NotAJumbleOfNumbers
  , Rockhopper, Roden

I'd like to focus on Roden and Rockhopper (now HEM) here, because at least one of them appears in every single wagon and I would be very surprised if they are both town.

Roden's votes

• Clasko:
  RVS, not really possible to interpret.
  
• Rockhopper:
  Roden put this wagon at L-1 in 139. Based on that and previous posts this was primarily for the sake of "advancing the game" and not for any strong scumread on Rock. See in particular 90, 108, 113 for Roden's conflicted read on that slot. Only after this point did Roden start asserting a significant scumread there (see 189, saying this as he unvotes him!) which as far as I can see he has stuck to ever since.
  
• Vaxkiller:
  Roden put this wagon at L-3 in 241 seemingly based on GIF's case directly above. (GIF himself was not actually even voting Vax at this time; the only one voting him was Rockhopper.) Vax had been in his nullreads as of 160, and seemed to still be at worst null as of 223 given Roden's tone toward him; 228 put Vax at "I could vote if I see a strong enough case" and I guess GIF's case was strong enough for him. After the vote, 286 suggested he lacked confidence Vax was scum but wanted to keep his vote there for pressure; this pressure never really materialized since Vax was afk the whole time he was at L-1. Roden never did move his vote from Vax right up until he hammered Johnny.
  
• JohnnyFarrar:
  Hammered in 391, about an hour after giving intent, which was about 20 minutes after L-1) Not much to say about the wagon itself, it was unfortunate but understandable. Even with time running out, the hammer seems premature to me (there was over a day left on the clock by my count) and it's striking that Roden was so quick to join his top scumread in voting Johnny out.

Rockhopper's votes

• Clasko:
  Voted in 26 as his first post of the game. RVS, like Roden's vote, though as an L-2 this vote might admit
  some
  interpretation. Rockhopper did give a "reason" (OMGUS) but he didn't really stick to the vote once the game got moving so I would guess this was just wagoning for its own sake as a game-starting device.
  
• sang froid:
  Second vote onto the wagon, in 59. Taking SF's joke PR claim as "PR bait" is not an interpretation I would ever have of that post, but it's not unthinkable and it's a decent reason for a not-entirely-random vote.
  
• Vaxkiller:
  Started the wagon, with 153; motivation pretty transparently being "sang wagon isn't happening so let's try something else." This is not the best look considering Rock himself was under pressure at this time and it can be interpreted as flailing for a counterwagon, but note Rock never really pushes
  that
  hard to get that counterwagon going so it's hard to really see that as his strategy. Rock stays here until moving to Clasko in 367 after having it pointed out Clasko is supposed to be his top scumread according to his read list in
  282.
  
• JohnnyFarrar:
  voted in 389 without justification given but it was pretty clear from context that this was just going along with the growing consensus that Johnny had to be dealt with one way or another.

[Umlaut]

After putting together the above, my reads on Roden and Rockhopper have just about reversed from where they were shortly after replace-in. Rockhopper has some surface-level scummy moments D1, but they don't fit any sort of agenda and can easily just be town faux pas. Roden jumped on

every one of these

which is exactly what I expect scum looking for a justifiable scumread to do, and he has held onto that justifiable scumread ever since while in practice voting with whatever wagon was convenient. Rockhopper was also on those wagons but his vote on Vaxkiller can hardly be called

convenient

and his vote on Johnny is much more consonant with the gamestate and his own stated positions than Roden's is.

VOTE: Roden

This is likely scum. (But if not, HEM is.)

[Roden]

Yeah my vote on Johnny wasn't good. I wanted either Rock or Vax out, but we'd run so low on time and in general we were all feeling pressured to just send a wagon at that point. All the momentum had evaporated from my scum reads' wagons and it didn't look like I was going to be able to convince anyone to go back. But there was also just a frustration with Johnny at that point, and I don't think anyone could have ever expected that a PR would VLA and prod dodge all game. Especially since he had to know by the end that we were all suspecting him.

If you think there's like a scum between me and Rock/HEM, I'm 100% down to just vote him at this point. I've been pushing the slot for awhile but GIF really doesn't seem to think either of us are scum. Both me and Rock/HEM both suspect Vax as well, so that also contributed to it, since in my case I'm just confident there's a scum between Rock/HEM and Vax.

After putting together the above, my reads on Roden and Rockhopper have just about reversed from where they were shortly after replace-in. Rockhopper has some surface-level scummy moments D1, but they don't fit any sort of agenda and can easily just be town faux pas. Roden jumped on

every one of these

which is exactly what I expect scum looking for a justifiable scumread to do, and he has held onto that justifiable scumread ever since while in practice voting with whatever wagon was convenient. Rockhopper was also on those wagons but his vote on Vaxkiller can hardly be called

convenient

and his vote on Johnny is much more consonant with the gamestate and his own stated positions than Roden's is.

VOTE: Roden

This is likely scum. (But if not, HEM is.)

Just want to point out that I didn't just jump on wagons. I feel like you're leaving out context because any wagon I did vote on, I pushed for people scum reading them to actually explain the read. Rock meanwhile jumped from vote to vote, to wagon to wagon, to hero solve to hero solve, and often gave very little justification each time. That was the main reason I honed in on the slot, it looked clear to me that he was just doing whatever he could to survive instead of actually attempting to scum hunt.

Again, I keep pushing for my scum reads, but the momentum just isn't there. Too much focus has been on Vax and Clasko/VFP. However, I haven't just been sheeping GIF since I have stuck to my guns and continued town read Clasko/VFP (though a little less confidently on VFP admittedly). If I really was as opportunistic as you're claiming, I would've just pushed GIF's scum reads at this point since he's clearly more influential than me.

[Roden]

I can't promise zero hesitation, but I'll feel a lot better about it. If Rock flips red I think it looks bad for you GIF, but I have a feeling Rock's partner in this case could be T3. I mentioned it earlier that someone may have made a meta tell, and I believe that was when T3 put a pointless vote on Rock at the end Day 1. It looks looked like distancing tbh, and his push on Rock now could potentially be a bus for town cred.

However, if Rock flips green then I feel a lot more confident locking you and T3 as town. And since we're both town reading Jumble's slot, that really would just leave your reads as PoE.

VOTE: Rockhopper

After seeing HEM's recent posts, I think I was on point with this. His push on T3 looks like a desperate bus attempt for town cred after getting backed into a corner.

[humaneatingmonkey]

So then just vote T3 with me if you agree with me

[humaneatingmonkey]

What's your case on T3, Roden? I searched your ISO for "T3" and I haven't found any besides thinking he's scum because he's my partner.

[Roden]

So then just vote T3 with me if you agree with me

Because voting T3 over you makes no sense when I'm confident there's one scum between you and Vax. A T3 flip that turns green doesn't clear you, doesn't address Umlaut's reads, and does nothing to prove or disprove GIF's locked reads. A T3 flip that turns red just implicates you at this point, which does nothing for anyone's reads since you're already a common factor in many scum pools.

This is just a weird request in general anyway since the only scum read your slot shared with me is Vax, and that was to clear your name. It makes zero sense to wagon people associated with you instead of just voting you, or really anyone getting heavily scum read. If you're town, why would we vote anyone who would be scum by association with you?

What's your case on T3, Roden? I searched your ISO for "T3" and I haven't found any besides thinking he's scum because he's my partner.

You clearly didn't read my ISO then. I stated Day 1 that I was looking for his meta tells, and the pointless vote on your slot at the end of Day 1 pinged me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

...why will you vote people based on other people's reads? you said so yourself that T3 pings you.

[Roden]

...why will you vote people based on other people's reads? you said so yourself that T3 pings you.

???

How is this even a question? A major point of this game is trying to figure out who's reads are genuine, who's are fabricated, and who's actually on point. Discerning which is which for each player can and will win games. Unless I claim to hero solve or have 100% accurate proof that I know who the scum are, I can't be certain that I'm actually right. If someone builds a case that I feel is stronger than my own

and

is someone that I feel confident reading as town, then yes of course I will vote with them. For instance, there was absolutely no point in continuing to push your slot Day 1 when not only did GIF make a compelling case against his scum reads, the majority of the other players also believed the same. If I'm just stubborn and lock my vote in no matter what, that's 100% anti-town in my eyes.

Furthermore, why do you keep talking around the point that T3 pings me by

association

with you? It wasn't an individually scummy thing that he did, but an associatively scummy tell. But if I'm wrong on about you, then that tell means nothing.

[Roden]

Also, it's just good in general to try to give everyone as much information as possible. I don't think flipping T3 offers as much info as a flip from Vax, you, or even myself.

[humaneatingmonkey]

'm just confident there's a scum between Rock/HEM and Vax.

Can you explain this to me?

[Roden]

'm just confident there's a scum between Rock/HEM and Vax.

Can you explain this to me?

This is a bit of a mixture between scum reading both of you, Rock's reaction to me agreeing to vote Vax when he hero solved me with Vax, and GIF's scum pool. I don't know if GIF is 100% correct in his scum reads since I do feel strongly on Clasko/VFP being town, but I do think he honed in on at least one scum. When Rock hero solved me and Vax, he quickly backed off when I gave my rebuttal on his scum read towards me but agreed with him that Vax was likely scum. FMPOV, it made me think that if Rock was scum, he wouldn't pair me with his partner, and that if he knows Vax is actually town then it doesn't leave him with any more defenses other than that he thinks I'm scum. When I later stated that I thought there had to be one scum between Rock and Vax, he damn near flipped his read on Vax entirely and instead hero solved me with T3. Which, interestingly enough, happened

after

T3 voted Rock at the end of Day 1. That's where my bus town cred theory comes from.

However, if your slot is town, then the simple explanation is that Rock just OMGUS voted and hero solved anyone who scum read him. Me agreeing to vote Vax might've spooked him into thinking I was either trying to bus my scum buddy, or perhaps make him think he got his hero solve partially wrong since he was so sure I had to be scum. If that's the case, if the Rock slot is actually town and I agree with GIF that Vax looks scummy, then that's the most likely player to flip red.

You're definitely playing differently than Rock did though, and you're much harder to get a read on. Your push on T3 does me think I was right to suspect your slot is paired with him, but you're also not really pushing me either. You also agreed earlier that Vax looked scummy too, which pulls me in the direction that your slot could actually be town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

what's a hero solve, roden?

[Roden]

what's a hero solve, roden?

Uh, it's when a player thinks they know who all the scum are, but I usually see it getting used jokingly. Rock seemed serious though. I'm surprised you don't know what that is seeing as you've been on this site longer than I've been.

[humaneatingmonkey]

When Rock hero solved me and Vax, he quickly backed off when I gave my rebuttal on his scum read towards me but agreed with him that Vax was likely scum. FMPOV, it made me think that if Rock was scum, he wouldn't pair me with his partner, and that if he knows Vax is actually town then it doesn't leave him with any more defenses other than that he thinks I'm scum.

Why wouldn't scum!Rock, in your POV, pair you with his scum partner?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm surprised you don't know what that is seeing as you've been on this site longer than I've been.

I have never heard that term ever before.

[Roden]

When Rock hero solved me and Vax, he quickly backed off when I gave my rebuttal on his scum read towards me but agreed with him that Vax was likely scum. FMPOV, it made me think that if Rock was scum, he wouldn't pair me with his partner, and that if he knows Vax is actually town then it doesn't leave him with any more defenses other than that he thinks I'm scum.

Why wouldn't scum!Rock, in your POV, pair you with his scum partner?

Because if the three of us have the most focus Day 1 and there's two scum between us, scum just loses. If we vote out Vax first and they flip red, Rock and I would still continue to pressure each other on Day 2. In this hypothetical scenario, if I actually get voted out then my last words will have been to vote Rock as everyone sees my slot turn green. I don't see how scum!Rock expects to live past Day 3 in this scenario where Vax is his scum buddy.

I'm surprised you don't know what that is seeing as you've been on this site longer than I've been.

I have never heard that term ever before.

Weird, I keep seeing that term get thrown around every game I'm in.

[Roden]

Plus, as it turns out, we had a Tracker. I find it incredibly unlikely that two scum pair each other with the exact same townie when scum had to have known there was a chance for a Tracker to be in play.