FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over


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Post Post #500 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by Cabd »

With 14 players alive, it will takes 8 votes to select a master. Master selection phase will be allocated 7 days.

Saber (3): Caster, Beast, Saber
Assassin (1): Rider
Berserker (5): Archer, Alter Ego, Avenger, Ruler, Moon Cancer

(expired on 2021-07-04 22:00:49)

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Last edited by Cabd on Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #501 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:46 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

Give it up, Cabd. We're still not voting for you.
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Post Post #502 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:49 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

^^ Evil mod. Prove me wrong.

@Rider, I don't know. :? Their first post feels like they reached the right conclusions long before it was cool to do so. Even though, arguably they just towned everybody who posted a lot.
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Post Post #503 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:50 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Meh, I'll read the game over again tomorrow morning with a cooler head hopefully. Beast out.
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Post Post #504 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:03 pm

Post by Servant Berserker »

I've spent the past few hours working on this and am not fully satisfied, and have some more things I want to look into. But for sake of advancing the game and providing insight into my PoV, this is about where I am at. Anyone below the town is subject to move. Some of these can easily go up or down depending on answers to questions.

Town Reads

Servant Lancer
- As I have said before, I find Lancer to be fairly town for their self introspection about why they did not want to be the master in . I also liked the follow up on my earlier question in as well as their stance on caster in as it is a weird approach for scum to take when preparing a read. Combine this with the following of snappy comments felt genuine. I still expect to see some solving out of them to keep their spot amongst the stars.

Servant Archer
- I might have a soft spot for my biggest fan. Besides that, we have moved in near lockstep for the duration of the game. Given my late appeal to be the master, I don't think I would be the choice for scum to buddy, so that lends itself to similar motivation by virtue of similar alignments. is an earlier one I thought but never said. For recent instances, take a look at their interaction with Caster. It is genuinely trying to explain and be transparent to allow Caster the information needed to reevaluate their read and overcome the tunnel. I'm speaking of , . I also appreciated the transparency regarding his changing perspective about who should be town master in , particularly with regards to the unvote of Saber and how they were developing a new decision.

Servant Caster
- Caster seems like misguided town. As I have said already, I believe scum would not be as clueless about the history of the game (it frankly surprised me any player would not look up how the roles looked last game). This is followed up by the development of the read on . I think scum would be a tad more flexible than to hold on to a page 2 scumread in a dead tunnel as well, including the situational awareness in about my professed reads, and following up again on getting more information out of me in . My biggest complaints here is that despite opposing my master they have not shared any reasons I could be scum beyond pre-flip associatives, but I assume they just think hiding their case will give it more gravitas.

Servant Alter Ego
- They, like Archer, have been mirroring a lot of my thoughts throughout the game. I did drop them down some when Beast pointed out that it was mostly mechanical and easily faked. was the same thing I was thinking. I also liked their comments in about how Beast was campaigning for Saber by virtue of making resistance a scumtell, and while somewhat abrasive, I do agree with their analysis on Beast spending a lot more time critiquing everyone else, and feels somewhat against the grain as well. I also liked their shutdown of the back and forth with beast in and feel like scum don't shut things down quite like that. I don't think scum has any incentive to shut down the line of questioning in the first place, and if they were going to, would choose something more along the lines of discrediting.

Lean Town


Servant Saber
- I was not initially townreading them, until I did the review after talking with Beast. The points I found easiest to swallow were about their suspicions of the building master wagon on them, in specific the Moon suspicion listed in . I also had issues with the Moon reads list, and their justifications were weak. I found it town to be comparing his location to the other candidates and draw that conclusion.

Servant Foreigner
- This was the hardest one on the list for me to place. It changed up slots upon my reread, for one post in particular. is a town post, that's a town confession. Yes, scum has to remember who people are to fake reads and yada yada, but I don't think scum just comes out and says it. They have other good posts such as which showed good gamestate awareness, and I think is a little too blunt to come from scum. It isn't as strong as my other townreads, but enough to put him at the bottom of my town list.

Null



Servant Rider
- This is just under the line. I liked the pause about the wagon composition in . I liked their confusion about Moon and Egos coexisting on the wagon in because it brought up something I missed myself. I liked his call back in , as it shows he is trying to get into Saber's head and seeing if his statements are holding up as time goes on.

Servant Ruler
- I find myself wanting more from their posts. It's pbpa, but majority of the comments are just "this post is pure of heart" without walking through the thoughts that make them believe that. I disagree with their moon stance, but that read is somewhat against the grain. I'm almost tempted to call them town for that read, if they actually explained what it was about not one, but both of Moon's readslists they found town. The other thing I find myself leaning town on from them is the read on Saber. It's an awkward angle for scum to take when trying to start a push on someone. I could see it, however, providing plenty of backtracking via "Oh I guess I was wrong on who it was"

Servant Assassin
- They were my first scumread of the game, I was not a fan of the "I have a strong role master me" as others have already shared, its an easy way for scum to get the master without actually committing anything. I did end up liking their thoughts once they started analysis, and while I disagreed with it liked the read on Lancer in particular. Now, you might be asking why they are in null. I will hit on this further later.

Lean Scum


Servant Beast
- I have mixed feelings here. On the one hand, I think their pushing Saber and belief of that feels genuine, and I liked their response to me in . I wish there was more follow up and actual trying to read me, I tried to extend a hand to allow them into my head but nothing ever truly came of it. I do agree with Alter's analysis that there does seem to be a lot of questions and very little analysis or follow up, it mostly seems to revert back to "We need to master Saber." As of this point in the thread, I think they have declared 4/5 reads? But there was a good chunk of time they only had two actual reads, and I found it hard to believe they had no other impressions.

Servant Avenger
I didn't like the miller claim. I will hit on this more later.

Scum


Servant Moon Cancer
- Originally one could have made the argument that such controversial reads in were more likely to come from scum. Then, they change their entire list up in after receiving a lot of flak over a few of these reads, one central one is their read on me. They justify the read on me in (and I use the term justify lightly). The person who calls it out (other than me I believe) is Alter, their lowest scumread. There is no backtrack, there is no attempt to read me, just a strange flip. Even if they said "Well my strongest townread is pro-Berserker Master" that would at least make some sense. The backtracks feel too inorganic.
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Post Post #505 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:31 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

If you're scum and you did this color me impressed. Let me know when you'd like to advance the game

If it helps, I also think Shielder is town.
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Post Post #506 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:43 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Actually it sounds like you're ready to advance the game.

Sure, I am too.

VOTE: Servant Berserker You're probably not the best choice mechanically, but at least you're either town or you put effort into stuff that literally won't matter in a few minutes and I'll take comfort in knowing that at least I voted town or got rid of scum that would have absolutely decimated us.
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Post Post #507 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:29 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

Fingers crossed.
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Post Post #508 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:46 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

@Berserker.

Let's assume you're town. Your townreads are correct.

What do you suppose the scum team is trying to do?

Why have they chosen to not contest and allow you to just waltz into Town-Leadership and take Mastery without really putting up any kind of fight whatsoever?
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Post Post #509 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:49 pm

Post by Servant Ruler »

In post 492, Servant Rider wrote:And then there's Ruler. Ugh. I don't want to read their posts.
Apologies. I realize my gimmick of choice may not be the most readable. There is a balance between attempted identity concealment and readability and I am aware I may currently be too much the former. I am trying to slowly shift more towards the latter; give me about 72 hours and I am sure I shall have better struck that balance.
In post 498, Servant Beast wrote:they seem confident they can be sorted and I'm just sitting here wondering why I can't.
Oh, the moment folks figure out my identity they will correctly townread me (and my identity is not hard to guess if I do not conceal my style with a gimmick). Yet, I am in no rush to out myself as I enjoy anonymity. However, I will risk this comment:
In post 502, Servant Beast wrote:Their first post feels like they reached the right conclusions long before it was cool to do so.
Not uncommon from me as I am something of a D1 specialist, forming townblocs early and reforming them as needed later.

There are fairly compelling reasons in my opinion for the pure of heart to be so. I will happily discuss these with those who wish to engage in further discourse.
In post 491, Servant Berserker wrote:I also find my wagon composition disturbing. Which are the worst votes and why?
If it makes you feel better: my vote on you is because I wish to keep the mastership out of the corrupts' hands, and given
Servant Saber
is the leading alternative, I do not trust them to have it and you were the alternative with the most support among the players I strongly believe to be pure of heart.

Were it possible to masterize
Servants Alter Ego, Archer, Lancer, and Beast
, I would lend my support to them just as much as I lent it to you.
In post 504, Servant Berserker wrote:
Lean Town
Servant Saber
- I was not initially townreading them, until I did the review after talking with Beast. The points I found easiest to swallow were about their suspicions of the building master wagon on them, in specific the Moon suspicion listed in . I also had issues with the Moon reads list, and their justifications were weak. I found it town to be comparing his location to the other candidates and draw that conclusion.
I am skipping your townreads as they are all servants I read as varying degrees being pure of heart.

However, for the lean towns I must protest on both accounts. is an easy post to make as either alignment and one I happen to think is more likely to come from a corrupt individual especially if
Servant Moon Cancer
is pure of heart and doubly so if my suspicion about
Servant Saber
's identity is correct (as this sort of potshot would be within their scum meta).

If your main basis for thinking
Servant Saber
is good relates to thinking
Servant Moon Cancer
is corrupt, please refer to my comments below for why that is an error.
In post 504, Servant Berserker wrote:
Servant Foreigner
- This was the hardest one on the list for me to place. It changed up slots upon my reread, for one post in particular. is a town post, that's a town confession. Yes, scum has to remember who people are to fake reads and yada yada, but I don't think scum just comes out and says it. They have other good posts such as which showed good gamestate awareness, and I think is a little too blunt to come from scum. It isn't as strong as my other townreads, but enough to put him at the bottom of my town list.
is the opposite of a town confession; it is explicitly a corrupt player making an excuse for not having an easier time formulating reads. I can point to dozens of players who have used similar excuses when corrupt but none from players using it when pure of heart because it is inherently a corrupt excuse. is an easy accusation to throw out as a corrupt individual and not one likely to be indicative of the accused being corrupt. It is in fact a post disproportionately likely to be made by the corrupt specifically because it is such an easy accusation to be made against
Servant Assassin
. The closest you have to a point would be , which I admit could indicate town - if there were followthrough. Near as I can tell, none exists, and a post lacking followthrough means it was not something asked with an intention in mind. Not inherently indicative of corruption (pure of heart players can ask something and not give followthrough), but guaranteed to be nai at best.
In post 504, Servant Berserker wrote:majority of the comments are just "this post is pure of heart" without walking through the thoughts that make them believe that.
By and large, it's because you haven't asked. I am all too happy to elaborate on a read when prompted to, but lacking this I am not going to do so out of the blue.
In post 504, Servant Berserker wrote:I could see it, however, providing plenty of backtracking via "Oh I guess I was wrong on who it was"
If it makes you feel better I believe even if my identity guess on
Servant Saber
is wrong, the slot is corrupt anyway. Not as
strongly
, but still there.
In post 504, Servant Berserker wrote:
Scum
- Originally one could have made the argument that such controversial reads in were more likely to come from scum. Then, they change their entire list up in after receiving a lot of flak over a few of these reads, one central one is their read on me. They justify the read on me in (and I use the term justify lightly). The person who calls it out (other than me I believe) is Alter, their lowest scumread. There is no backtrack, there is no attempt to read me, just a strange flip. Even if they said "Well my strongest townread is pro-Berserker Master" that would at least make some sense. The backtracks feel too inorganic.
I would raise the counterargument of simple motive, giving the risk and reward of the action undertaken and what it would strive to accomplish as either a corrupt or pure of heart.

With the initial readslist of , this post came out of the blue. It was random, it was largely against the grain, it was something going largely against thread consensus, with no logic presented, with nothing backing it up. Ask yourself, what does this accomplish if the player in question is corrupt? It casts attention onto them, it makes people give a side-eye to them, it makes the players think the individual in question is suspicious. It draws the eye and makes players focus on
Servant Moon Cancer
. None of this furthers the agenda of the corrupt. It gives a corrupt player nothing but unwanted attention, making individuals naturally suspicious of them.

I realize "too scummy to be scum" is a fallacy, but this is not using that fallacy. This is taking a look at which faction would be more likely to make the post in question. What possible advantage, what possible goal, was there in
Servant Moon Cancer
making that post if corrupt? It is not going to sway the minds of the masses. It is not going to convince the town that they are wrong on any of their reads. It cannot dissuade the town from pushing on the corrupt and cannot dissuade the town from correctly identifying those pure of heart. So what possible goal can there be for a corrupted servant to post ? I can think of no motive and no reason for it.

In contrast, if
Servant Moon Cancer
is pure of heart, the motivation to post is self-explanatory: they had formulated reads and made the decision to share these reads with the rest of the gathered.

When it comes to the shift in reads in without prompting, the presented reads may have more in common with the group consensus (particularly a fair amount of overlap with my own takes), but I believe there is strong evidence that they formed these reads independently after having caught up, especially since their reads are not literally identical to other players. For instance, does a good job of explaining the differences between their reads and mine.
Servant Moon Cancer
shows a strong individual thought process there unique to them, with reads that serve no function if they are corrupted.

What benefit is it to them to strongly scumread
Servant Alter Ego
, a consensus townread, while otherwise following the majority of the consensus in their own townreads? If they were corrupt, I struggle to see how. I admit it is not completely impossible, but the simpler explanation to me is they have their own takes spurned from genuinely forming reads thanks to being pure of heart.

It is also in part
because
there is no backtrack. There is simply a flip. A corrupt servant is more likely to try and justify a shift in their reads thanks to fear of suspicion were they to not justify it. (You even point out how this works with your take on me and how if I were corrupt I could justify a shift in read on
Servant Saber
. So you must be aware of what I am talking about.) A servant pure of heart fears nothing, so they feel no such obligation and are more free to truthfully speak their mind, even if it involves a shift from their prior thoughts.

Is this sufficient explanation for my read on
Servant Moon Cancer
?
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Post Post #510 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:22 pm

Post by Servant Avenger »

In post 470, Servant Caster wrote:I am very disappointed in the lack of serious effort/playing from Avenger
Sorry mum! I'll try better.
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Post Post #511 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:28 pm

Post by Servant Avenger »

In post 481, Servant Beast wrote:It should be noted hat all 3 of the people pushing for the grail position have been relatively good at being assertive and not very gunshy. I'd be somewhat surprised if any of them turned out to be scum tbh. I think this is just another game where scum have decided to be on the peripheral than to fight for the spot.
What's stopping scum from being assertive here though?
I wouldn't be surprised at all if scum are in these 3. I'd be surprised if there's more than 1 though.
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Post Post #512 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:32 pm

Post by Servant Avenger »

In post 486, Servant Ruler wrote:Interesting because I can verify Servant Avenger's claim of having not received a PM on my main. I did not receive a daystart PM on any account other than this.
Hmm, this is interesting.
Did anyone else actually get a day start pm on their main or is this a scum slip to knowledge via the scum PT or something from Foreigner?
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Post Post #513 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:15 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

I didn’t receive anything on my main either, I’m just a lunatic who refreshes MS constantly and saw cabd had unlocked the thread
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Post Post #514 (ISO) » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:20 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

I still have intent to vote berserker but I’m not sure if I’m ready to end the phase yet

@Beast why do you think Shielder is town?

@Ruler can you explain why you’re scumreading Saber independently of your main-guess now? Because you weren’t before

@mod can we get a prod on shielder?
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Post Post #515 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:18 am

Post by Servant Shielder »

Hey, didn't realize this started! I'm going to get to catching up on my lunch break in a few hours
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Post Post #516 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:49 am

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

UNVOTE:

Might as well allow Shielder a chance for input first.
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Post Post #517 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:18 am

Post by Servant Saber »

In post 508, Servant Caster wrote:@Berserker.

Let's assume you're town. Your townreads are correct.

What do you suppose the scum team is trying to do?

Why have they chosen to not contest and allow you to just waltz into Town-Leadership and take Mastery without really putting up any kind of fight whatsoever?
This has been the MO of a lot of recent scumgames. Do nothing and have us rip ourselves to shreds.

That's why I don't automatically assume Beserker is scum pushed although I have psychological evidence to suggest such.
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Post Post #518 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:20 am

Post by Servant Foreigner »

In post 464, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.
Did you just POE in a game some people barely posted? So fake
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Post Post #519 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:22 am

Post by Servant Foreigner »

I know when some is scum when they give awful excuses to push me and Cancer is good example of it.
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Post Post #520 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:23 am

Post by Servant Saber »

@Berserker, Your townreads focus a fair amount on who agrees with you. I find this a significant problem for thread health. A good master/stump cannot be vulnerable to buddying. Every stump game town wins without toxic cheating replaceouts won because of the fact the stumps were open to criticism by town. I'm worried that is not the case because of your townread rational, particularly on Archer and Alter.
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Post Post #521 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:24 am

Post by Servant Saber »

In post 518, Servant Foreigner wrote:
In post 464, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.
Did you just POE in a game some people barely posted? So fake
Shielder hadn't even posted I believe.
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Post Post #522 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:27 am

Post by Servant Saber »

For the record, I am not calling Archer and Alter scum. My comment is solely about thread health in case we are wrong somewhere. I'm afraid that scumreads won't be permissible later on, causing us to lose. See Townstumps mafia, particularly Titus and House v NorwegianboyEE.
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Post Post #523 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:30 am

Post by Servant Foreigner »

In post 484, Servant Ruler wrote:Oh? And why did you assume 'bad' rather than 'corrupt' in my posting?
why would scum desire to look dumb?
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Post Post #524 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:34 am

Post by Servant Berserker »

In post 508, Servant Caster wrote:@Berserker.

Let's assume you're town. Your townreads are correct.

What do you suppose the scum team is trying to do?

Why have they chosen to not contest and allow you to just waltz into Town-Leadership and take Mastery without really putting up any kind of fight whatsoever?
I’m sure you’ve seen the recent uptick in do nothing and lose scumteams, right Caster?

I wouldn’t be surprised if they pushed for me to get the master because I haven’t spent any time talking about my role. There’s a thought that crossed my mind that if Saber is scum, it’s incredibly likely to find more scum in the “just follow the mechanical strength” group. But besides that point, how often is it scum is actually on the same page in day play?

Pedit-
There is always a need for reevaluation down the line when more information is made available. See the recent MD thread about mind melding, in situations like this where information is limited, it’s things like that which help jump someone up the reads list. If people decide to wagon them, then so be it. I’m not going to shut down people who think differently, and I’m not going to let those at the top coast either.

At the end of the day I want to win this game. If I make a mistake in an early readslist (that was somewhat unpolished), I would obviously be open to hearing about it down the line. But I’d require actual casing, for pretty much everything. We can’t use meta or anything, this is going to come down to who can find scum and case them the best.

I’ll toss this question back at you. If scum were to contest, how exactly would they do that besides the consistent nay saying and critiquing the wagon. Hell, some could even argue having scummier members vote the wagon to try and stunt it’s momentum is a tactic.

But my bottom line is that if scum did have a tactic coming in, it was either “don’t go for the master” or “make a play for master by promising strong mech”

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