FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Beast]

Mine

[Servant Beast]

I condescend a lot at people that push me when I'm town though. It's a bad habit and bad play, but I do it frequently enough that I just sit in the "could come from either" camp, camp.

I do think Rider is fairly grumpy even though we're winning though. But I think foreigner or Avenger probably has at least 1 scum in it.

Why would I be grumpy?

All the biggest threats to my role have been dealt with in some form or another:
-The player that is immune to investigations is conftown
-The strongman scum was eliminated Day 1
-The PT-crashing scum was also eliminated Day 1
-The town roleblocker was eliminated Night 1

My issue is the ridiculousness that is being presented to me by Archer [and potentially Berserker] in preserving Avenger despite him being very likely scum.

I mean you think I'm very likely scum, so I'm not sure how seriously I can take this statement.

[Servant Archer]

Catching up.

My issue with the Avenger-scum hypothesis is that for it to be true, it supposes Titus was doing nothing but bussing on day 1 (she jumped on Avenger in the duel and pushed fairly hard on him), and I'm not sure why that is somehow more plausible than all 3 wagons day 1 being on scum. To dismiss one of those as implausible but not the other seems like questionable logic.

I think I might have over sold how certain I am that Avenger is town. Part of why I tried to walk it back to a more reasonable level in 1771.

I just think that foreigner makes more sense. Like the two options being presented are:

Foreigner is scum:

Moon Cancer who, (after being revealed) is a player that has little confidence in their scum game, and in prior games has taken somewhat of a defeatist attitude, agreed to a plan for them to be bussed Day 1 to give town cred to the stronger players in the team.

So, day 1 started with both Foreigner and Saber voting for Moon Cancer, and then pushing, and pushing in order to get the town cred.

The gladiate was completely unexpected, but they bothjumped on the Avenger wagon.

Once the gladiate was finished, Saber defaulted back to the "buss moon cancer" plan.

Once Moon Cancer flipped, they tried to capitalize on the bus, and tried to get that town cred

--------------------

Avenger is scum:

~Saber came out the gate joining on the Moon Cancer wagon, and pushed pretty hard there.
~Moon Cancer, counter voted back, and accused Saber of "scum claiming".
~Avenger voted the townie Foreigner for a counter wagon against the two other members of his team that were cross voting

Then, just before Saber got a chance to capitalize on the bus, Avenger decided to gladiate Foreigner to save Moon Cancer, and instead of helping Avenger push out Foreigner, Saber went hard on pushing Avenger.

And then, Avenger dropped the gladiate.

Saber went back to pushing Moon
Avenger decided to let Moon go down while still claiming he thought they were town

----------------

To me, option 1 looks like a scum team that has some semblance of a plan. Option 2 looks like a scum team that is all pulling in completely opposite directions.

I don't have a ton of experience with Titus, but from what I have seen, I feel like she would have had some semblance of a plan.

I would go as far as to say that there is already evidence this game that Titus was trying to coordinate plans in the scum chat, when you look at Day 0 and see Moon Cancer, Day 0, jumping on to the Saber 4 Master campaign when Titus thought she could win the master. Then Moon doing a full 180, and calling Saber scum once Titus realized she had lost the master (and that she would probably need to bus if she wanted to regain a footing in the game)

---------------

So yeah, foreigner being scum makes more sense to me.

I would no longer say that scum!Avenger is impossible, but would need to see more evidence for it -- such as foreigner flipping town in order to give me any evidence that a counter wagon was being made by the scum team

[Servant Berserker]

or potentially even scum-motivated.

Rider, please, I am begging you.

Please try to scum case me right now.

I would actually love to see how you could try to spin that

I don't think I could even if I wanted to.

And it's why I have you as being misguided rather than scum, and thus have kept you out of my elimination pile.

This feels like a scum post
I feel like bad guys tend to try to use this sort of conciliatory tone when trying to work around people who are clearly town

[Servant Rider]

I mean you think I'm very likely scum, so I'm not sure how seriously I can take this statement.

And yet you still push my scumreads for me.

I don't know if I should really care how seriously you take me.

[Servant Berserker]

At this point I notice I may have misinterpreted Rider’s intent
Rider seems to just be arguing that Avenger can be scum, while I was thinking Rider was trying to propose that Avenger is scum AND Foreigner is town

[Servant Berserker]

Given that, maybe disregard 1803?

[Servant Rider]

Well, I'm actually arguing that Avenger

is

scum and Foreigner

is

town.

So, no? You interpreted it correctly the first time?

[Servant Rider]

I'm going to be honest, I'm not really that certain Foreigner has to be town.

I just really really don't think Avenger has any shot of not being scum.

[Servant Beast]

You shouldn't care how seriously I take you.
Hey, I've always voted there first. You just voted right after.
To me, you're not on the table today without something very convincing being thrown at you.

I'm clearly missing something, but why are you gloating about how nothing can stop you now that your archenemy is dead.

[Servant Beast]

The comedy option is definitely that Foreigner and Avenger are both scum who made excellent gambits that fell flat because they never went to drama club.

[Servant Archer]

The real comedy option is for all of Avenger, Rider, Ruler 1, and Ruler 2 to all be town, and this is just a game of "just how many town players can hard defend the scum team"

Like....

[Servant Rider]

You shouldn't care how seriously I take you.

Hey, I've always voted there first. You just voted right after.

To me, you're not on the table today without something very convincing being thrown at you.

I'm clearly missing something, but why are you gloating about how nothing can stop you now that your archenemy is dead.

Yeah, kind of hard to pass up the potential to eliminate a scumread, regardless of who's leading it.

I wouldn't say that I'm invincible or anything, but I'm now afforded a fair amount of tranquility with how the first Day played out.

[Servant Rider]

The real comedy option is for all of Avenger, Rider, Ruler 1, and Ruler 2 to all be town, and this is just a game of "just how many town players can hard defend the scum team"

Like....

Says the player defending Avenger.

[Servant Berserker]

How do you look at how Avenger and Foreigner have played and decide that Foreigner trying to snag free for the Moon flip is okay but Avenger claiming Miller isn’t? There’s probably more to the scenario but I feel like Foreigner has done more actively scummy stuff while Avenger is just an easy target.

[Servant Berserker]

How do you look at how Avenger and Foreigner have played and decide that Foreigner trying to snag cred for the Moon flip is okay but Avenger claiming Miller isn’t? There’s probably more to the scenario but I feel like Foreigner has done more actively scummy stuff while Avenger is just an easy target.

EBWOP

[Servant Archer]

The real comedy option is for all of Avenger, Rider, Ruler 1, and Ruler 2 to all be town, and this is just a game of "just how many town players can hard defend the scum team"

Like....

Says the player defending Avenger.

Question for you rider.

If we flipped Avenger today, and he flipped town -- where would you want to flip tomorrow?

[Servant Rider]

How is someone snagging or not snagging credit for a Moon Cancer flip and Avenger claiming Miller even remotely comparable? Those are two completely different things.

How about this? If no one claims a valid role-related reason to believe the Miller claim, we eliminate Avenger today. If someone does, we do what you want [which I presume is eliminating Foreigner].

As far as Foreigner is concerned, I find it more believable that he was convinced he was the scum counterwagon to Moon Cancer and didn't think Saber-scum would be bussing there. And I don't have any issue with the way he pushed Avenger or Moon Cancer Day 1. I also find it unlikely for scum to just double-up and push a wagon like that [even if it were intended to be a bus wagon] by voting back-to-back like that.

[Servant Rider]

If we flipped Avenger today, and he flipped town -- where would you want to flip tomorrow?

Beast.

But if we flipped Avenger and he flipped town, I would be shocked that anyone would care about what I wanted to eliminate tomorrow.

[Servant Shielder]

Avenger's role is what, miller + gladiator who can cancel their action?

[Servant Rider]

That we know of. We also know their true name, but the particularly concerning part is the fact they claimed 'miller' which doesn't seem to fit the setup as far as I can tell and the timing of their Gladiator action.

[Servant Archer]

How about this? If no one claims a valid role-related reason to believe the Miller claim, we eliminate Avenger today. If someone does, we do what you want [which I presume is eliminating Foreigner].

What kind of reason could you possibly be fishing for?

We already have evidence that there are investigative roles in this game, simply from the fact that we have a confirmed townie who is immune to investigations.

[Servant Shielder]

What reason do people have for suspecting Beast?

[Servant Archer]

Like, people have said "I am surprised how many clears this set up can make" --- but like, having both a player immune to investigations and a player who is a miller is the counter to that.

[Servant Rider]

Catching up.

My issue with the Avenger-scum hypothesis is that for it to be true, it supposes Titus was doing nothing but bussing on day 1 (she jumped on Avenger in the duel and pushed fairly hard on him), and I'm not sure why that is somehow more plausible than all 3 wagons day 1 being on scum. To dismiss one of those as implausible but not the other seems like questionable logic.

What would be the issue with Titus bussing all her partners on Day 1? Her goal was to be elected and be removed from the game.

Do you think it's more likely that town will just listen to all her reads after they know she was scum all along, or question the validity of her reads?