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[Something_Smart]

Howdy.

[Something_Smart]

That I am not.

[Something_Smart]

DON'T SAY YOUR GUESS NOW. JUST KNOW.

ALSO I'M TERRIBLE AT KEEPING THINGS HIDDEN HEHEHEHEHE

My hype for this game just rose about 20%.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, I'm caught up.

[Something_Smart]

everybody is making sense, HELP

Lol, this isn't the lament I'm used to getting from you. Why's it a problem?

[Something_Smart]

Thinking my tr on Misty was probably right. Scum!SS tends to be somewhat frozen.

You're probably giving my scumgame too little credit, I think. That doesn't seem like a post I'd have trouble making as scum.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah that's fair.

I have a few reads, but they're pretty nebulous since my reads aren't generally good upon replacing in. Anything specific you want me to take a look at?

[Something_Smart]

There were a couple posts from VFP that I liked. Let me grab them.

[Something_Smart]

Actually it was kinda funny. CB quoted two posts as his least favorite posts from VFP, but I like them both.

Does redacted mean it was over 500?

I was about to take credit for making scum crumble!
Then I realised my vote didn't go through.

These are the only two posts where I felt "ehh" on with VFP thus far in the dayphase, and even then they don't immediately feel like good reasons. Post 469 sounds performative in wanting to get credit for the Kitty lim so it's easier for them to target the outside-wagoners ~possibly~ to protect a scum-partner on-wagon... but this reality sounds both far-fetched and off very fickle reasoning that I wouldn't even think to assert.

VFP campaigned for

Flea

, and Imaginality campaigned for

me

... I can't speak to a town or scum-specific trend of play here, but I don't think either VFP or Imaginality have tried to pocket me/Flea moreso than putting their eggs in a basket outside of their own. I like that good faith sign.

I also liked 561. Seems like an unlikely angle for scum to take, especially given that Kitty was scum.

[Something_Smart]

What are the odds that kyuku has the exact same srs as flipped scum, is a complete coincidence?

Well, what are the odds that he borrows reads from his flipped buddy?

Probably lower.

[Something_Smart]

I mean that seems like such a dumb play to do intentionally.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it's totally fair game to call him scum because his scumreads don't make sense. I think accusing him of ripping reads from his dead scumbuddy is pushing it, though.

[Something_Smart]

I'm really wanting SS to engage with my posts or the game more.

I definitely would appreciate specific questions, then.

[Something_Smart]

why direct your attention to me - who has given little content for you to work with - versus Imaginality - the person who just voted you?

Because I'd rather talk to you than him? If anything, his vote means that he's not likely to ask something useful.

[Something_Smart]

Well, for one, I know you, and I don't know him. It's not a dismissal-- if he wants to talk to me, it's not like I'd refuse.

[Something_Smart]

Why do you think he wouldn't support you as scum?

[Something_Smart]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

[Something_Smart]

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Are these related? Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

[Something_Smart]

I think Cyrus is probably town but there was those weird questions. I don’t know.

no execute

for now

Why would we no exe here

[Something_Smart]

Granted reping into a game with a day left to its already short ass deadline just to be turbolimmed has to fucking suck so like, sorry if that's the case SS - please post soon if you can.

I mean yes. But it's also hard to, like, post normally in a circumstance like that. I'm trying.

[Something_Smart]

And if people want to kill me because of what Misty did then I have 0 defense against that

[Something_Smart]

Well, who else is actually around right now? It only takes 4 votes to get an execution.

[Something_Smart]

It’s possible but in most cases, it’s statistically far more likely to either be S/T or T/T than S/S.

Well when one of the wagons has flipped scum, they're statistically not very likely to be T/T. I'm not sure that leading wagons are S/S at a lower rate than you would see by chance?

[Something_Smart]

Who do you think is scum? I don’t think you are but I need an alternative.

I guess my number one pick would probably be Distance, but I'm willing to compromise on almost anyone I don't townread (my townreads being VFP, mastina, S&M, maybe CB).

[Something_Smart]

Might as well VOTE: Distance

But like I said, I'm around and willing to switch.

[Something_Smart]

love the "maybes" on my slot, makes this interesting

Yeah I mean I don't want to kill you and that's in some part because you've been playing consistent with your towngame and in some part because I like you. Unsure how much of each part it is, though.

[Something_Smart]

I think he’s town. Who do you dislike off Kitty wagon?

{Cyrus, marci, ssbm} would be my exe pool then. I don't especially scumread any of them, though.

[Something_Smart]

lmao, so am I town that's misguided on you or maybe scum that's going for that golden mislim?

Yeah. I mean as I said, I can't really speak to the scumreads on my slot. I wasn't really able to engage with the game until now, and of course I can't defend anything Misty did.

[Something_Smart]

I felt like ssbm has just been putting out general tryhard vibes all game. These are generally towny, but they don't have to be. Do you think he's town, Nancy? Why did you unvote him?

[Something_Smart]

Also hi imaginality

Can you talk about why you scumread my slot? I feel like you really haven't done that much, at least that I have seen

[Something_Smart]

Well ssbm seems more likely to go through because he has an extra vote, but I'm pretty ambivalent between the two.

[Something_Smart]

I'll follow you though.

VOTE: Cyrus

[Something_Smart]

My main gripe with Kyouko was the public justification to get hitman. It felt a bit like theatre using Cyrus as a scapegoat to acquire a scum-PR.

Hmmmmmm... But I don't have strong feelings on Cyrus either way, and while Kyouko doesn't give me warm fuzzy vibes, does that mean scum really?

It doesn't mean scum per se, but Nancy is good at reading me, so unless you think we're scum together he's probably a better alternative than me?

Plus, even if he isn't scum with hitman, then we aren't killing a townie with a lot of money.

[Something_Smart]

There's only on vote on SS, though?

Three. VFP, imaginality, ssbm.

[Something_Smart]

Presumably it's first to reach the tied amount.

[Something_Smart]

One factor why I lean scum on you is this:

Yeah I did see that. I think people can attest that that's just kinda how I operate. I knew I'd be around till deadline, so I was always ready to consolidate on someone acceptable. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

[Something_Smart]

im not sure how they usually play, but i think they're just straightup demotivated town trying their best this game. though they kinda mention how theyre not into the game alot (which could be seen as like trying to gain pity or something, not sure if thats the right word) i think theyre genuine in it.

As someone who is somewhat familiar with her meta, I think this checks out. She isn't usually like this. It could be a weird scum ploy, but more likely it's just true.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, that's true. But like, I can't explain anything she did. So if there's a shitpush on her, then anyone else can defend my slot just as easily (more easily, in fact, since they were actually there) as I can.

[Something_Smart]

I think it was pretty clear that we were looking for something we could agree on so that I didn't die. I'm certainly not super confident in Cyrus flipping scum, I don't think any of us are, but we think he's the best target.

[Something_Smart]

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance

How did you even know this was the case? Not everyone had posted yet.

Also the fact that no bids were hidden makes me think scum didn't bid high because they wanted to see how much money town spent. Though it could just be WIFOM.

[Something_Smart]

I think we need to play keepaway with the ninja role btw - assuming town got watcher we still have 1 each watcher and tracker shots available, and I will enhance the 2-shot tracker again toMorrow. Outside of daykill it is their strongest PR remaining.

What did you enhance last night?

[Something_Smart]

Do you think scum would make a kill so blatantly not in their best interests?

I mean, thanks to WIFOM, anything blatantly not in scum's interest may actually be in scum's interest.

[Something_Smart]

Every game scum has used meta against me, it's false.

Is this also true if flipped around? How often have you seen town use false meta on you (presumably by accident)?

[Something_Smart]

Let me ask you Marci, if SSBM is town, then why are they not killed as the MO?

Is killing the MO that much of a priority for scum?

[Something_Smart]

something_smart do u got any reads?

Still catching up, but they haven't changed much since yesterday. I still like VFP, S&M, mastina, and I'm not interested in CB or Gamma today.

Between the rest I'd prefer ssbm today I think, but I'm not opposed to imaginality.

[Something_Smart]

God, this sounds so fake.

It sounds like pretty standard VFP to me.

[Something_Smart]

Since he's already been outed as Vedith, I can point out that this kind of cockiness is something I remember as being very characteristic of his towngame from way back.

[Something_Smart]

No, I had to do something else. Sorry. Be on it in a bit.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, mastina, did either of you bid more than 325 on cop D1?

No.

[Something_Smart]

Mm. I didn't notice that.

If it is a townie, then they should claim it immediately.

[Something_Smart]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

[Something_Smart]

By the way it makes no sense for scum to go for the godfather two days after the cop came out, and it also makes no sense to prove you have your money by wasting it.

But, I'm not sure if scum-Gamma would come out with so brazen an excuse for taking a role that isn't even useful to him.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S why would that be an awkward position?

Because if marci is scum then possibly Kitty got the cop and she can fake confirm herself by saying Distance had the cop and clearly inno'd her.

[Something_Smart]

On the last thing: they feel rather disorganized given the Flea NK, that seems a bit like out-of-touch scum. So they probably failed to effectively plan out that part of their mechanical play.

I wasn't here for this, and I read but I can't guarantee that I fully understand the gamestate as it was at the end of D1. In what way was the Flea kill out-of-touch? Was fae not very townread?

If so, I feel like that implicates the people who were townreading faer.

[Something_Smart]

She also probably doesn't kill Distance.

[Something_Smart]

something smart i still want ur reads xoxoxoxoxoxoooxox
lowkey looks like ur just avoiding it imo

What is 1102? Chopped liver?

For the rest of your points, it seems like you've done a lot of "this is why scum would want to do what S_S did, therefore he's scummy" without really analyzing how likely I would be to do them as town. I'm willing to respond to specific points if you want (though I don't want to shit up the thread if you're just going to dismiss it or refuse to listen).

[Something_Smart]

the more that i think about it, this is prob where i was feeling off yesterday. they just like.. voting literally anywhere to save urself doesnt rlly look good imo, 844 makes it seem like they just wanted to go on what has a higher chance to go through, no real like "this persons scummy" or "this person has an antitown style" type of moment from them.

I do want to respond to this one at least though. Are you really going to sit there with a straight face and tell me that a townie who's set to be executed with hours left in the day is not going to compromise on his second-choice execution?

[Something_Smart]

(Especially given that I was explicitly following someone I trust who probably had better reads than I did.)

[Something_Smart]

something_smart mentioned distance might be softing an inno on me, maybe they could've thought that he was 100% cop and needed to take him out before he could reveal the info.

Lmao yes, I noticed someone was softing a cop inno, so I killed them to keep the inno from being revealed and then I told everyone about it.

[Something_Smart]

wheres ur reasons?

VFP I explained. I liked 439, 469, and 561. They don't feel like angles that scum is likely to decide are worth taking.
S&M has basically been Nancy, and usually when Nancy is scum she plays pretty transparently toward an agenda but it seems like she's really committed to solving here. She can in fact read me well and I think it counts for a lot that she didn't just pay lip service toward calling me town but actually worked to try to save me.
Mastina read is mostly explained in 917. She tends to play a very honest scumgame, which means that her whole spiel about being disengaged is probably true. While she might be disengaged as scum, I wouldn't expect that to produce things like 492.

As for CB, I didn't have anything specific to back up that feeling, but his play and particularly his reachout and engagement with me has been very consistent with his towngame.
Gamma I thought Alisae was genuinely pissed about bad town play and he was also the last vote on Kitty which makes it an unlikely bus. Since I made that post this read has risen due to the godfather bid, which while dumb seems pretty unlikely to be from scum.

[Something_Smart]

i would expect more like fightback (like, trying to convince people what you believe more in)?? but you were so accepting of it.

If people wanted to wagon a townread over a scumread, then maybe. But between two null reads with one being slightly lower than the other? Not worth starting a fight about when the deadline was looming. (Not to mention that I respect Nancy's judgement and it was entirely possible that her opinion was better than mine.)

[Something_Smart]

I suspect that if a slot is lurking this hard it's not alignment related. If Gypyx had been keeping up with prods he would have long since been replaced.

[Something_Smart]

I'm around. I feel like plurality has just made people completely uninterested in trying to work together.

[Something_Smart]

I'm really surprised that imaginality compiled that vote count and then didn't vote CB.

That seems like the reasonable play as both alignments, but especially as scum.

[Something_Smart]

I think the reason he doesnt vote cb is they are partnered

Maybe, but that's not a reason to kill him first.

[Something_Smart]

I'm back.

I told the mod that I would be out of town. I was hoping he would mention it.

[Something_Smart]

I don't like popcorn but I'm fine with going first.

D1 Misty put $300 on cop and did not get it.
D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.

S&M should choose the rest of the claim order, I think.

[Something_Smart]

I don't have a ton of time right now, but a few important things to point out:
- Watcher is a very strong power, arguably the strongest in the game. But it gets better as the game goes on, and I was in no danger of dying at night. So it is entirely reasonable to put 500 on it and then not use it immediately. (And I was not afraid of being blocked by imaginality, unless he was scum. I would assume that he knows to save it until one scum remains.)

- Mastina, I applause your game sense if you were available to predict both the N2 and N3 kills; I don't have that, and I hadn't even been in the game very long. I didn't expect to be able to predict the N2 kill, which turned out to be accurate, because Distance was my strongest scumread.

- Ninja doesn't make watcher useless; in fact, knowing who has the ninja makes the ninja useless. If I see someone die and nobody visited them, that's just as much a guilty on VFP as if I saw anyone else visit.

[Something_Smart]

What were you hoping to find when you chose to watch S&M

The NK, obviously. They were one of my top townreads, they're both strong players, and they had money unaccounted for.

[Something_Smart]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD

Why is that?

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but that's a justification for why I wasn't afraid to use the role last night with VFP still alive.

Of course on N2 I didn't know that ninja would be coming up the next day, so it's not like I was especially in a rush to use my power before the ninja appeared.

[Something_Smart]

Gamma visited mastina.

VOTE: Gamma

[Something_Smart]

It's a watcher result. Not saying whether anyone else visited her, because there's no reason to out that information-- Gamma shouldn't be able to visit at all if town.

[Something_Smart]

do u remember what the claims for bidding on cop were? i could only find 2 claims but im not sure if theres more

My slot bid 300. I think mastina bid on cop too, but not as much as S&M either.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, why would scum kill us when one member of the team had us completely pocketed?

Oh, I didn't see ssbm's question before; I didn't have a good handle on who was likely to kill whom, and they seemed like a good kill across the board (likely town, mostly townread, strong players, unaccounted-for money).

[Something_Smart]

im thinking deeply of this tho, why wouldn't distance have just straight up claim the inno on me then..? cop only 1 shot, he has no reason to hide his action from us.

Well, it's possible that he didn't want scum to know he'd spent most of his money.

But yeah I'm not at all convinced that he really did have the cop; it was just the first thing that came to mind when I read how confident he was in you being town. It's a possibility, but not the only one.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She was clearly town and (essentially) confirmed to have the tracker.

[Something_Smart]

1. Gamma is scum and bid that much, and other scum has 300 or less remaining (otherwise I think they'd bid higher) and Gamma either didn't notice that people would notice the 499+301=800 or thought a "scum are framing me" excuse would work

Oh yeah, that's a good point. Could have just been a "last day, better spend all my money" thing, considering I would expect him to preempt anyone else bringing it up if he were taking the frame angle.

[Something_Smart]

I just hate the assumptions being made

I do agree with this sentiment-- if you're trying to base logic on assumptions, you'd better understand that the logic is only as valid as the assumptions are.

That said, we should be taking some things on probability. All things considered, marci looks pretty likely to be town, so it's probably better to just accept the loss in the rare case where she isn't than to continue to worry about her.

[Something_Smart]

You mean jk, we had the tracker.

No, I mean the 2-shot tracker that was won yesterday for $200 after mastina publicly announced that she bid $200 on it.

[Something_Smart]

I didn't explicitly say that only he visited, but it doesn't matter; from his POV, I have to be lying, and therefore scum. But I also can't have won the hitman (even if I were scum) because I already spent 500.

[Something_Smart]

Yes you actually can because VFP won the 2 shot ninja.

Huh? I don't follow.

[Something_Smart]

Oh I think we're talking about different things, my bad.

Yeah, I would see whoever visited mastina. I was just saying that I don't need to say if anyone else visited, because seeing Gamma visit is enough to know he's scum (and saying would provide more info to scum).

[Something_Smart]

Gamma is flailing caught scum. I don’t know how everyone isn’t seeing it.

Yes, I agree with you. I think we just got some wires crossed there.

[Something_Smart]

There's nobody alive who could have won cop if town so yeah the cop is either dead or scum.

The hides are indeed confusing but to me it looks like scum don't really know how to use it effectively, given how they didn't hide on two of the days and hid JK but didn't even win it.

My first instinct is that this points away from ssbm being scum, but it seems like imaginality is also good enough at mechanics, so it could just be them WIFOMing that they're bad at it.

[Something_Smart]

Or they just didn't care, and they were willing to lose Gamma today. Mastina was kind of an obvious kill, but also an important once since she would become a cop if scum were executed today. (And Gamma was possibly getting executed even without the guilty.)

...which I think would point toward you to some extent, because otherwise they might be scared of your roleblock. But not sure about that.

[Something_Smart]

Which part?

[Something_Smart]

Why was she clearly town?

Her whole play surrounding the JK was very genuine, even discounting the fact that she was the only explanation for the missed kill.

[Something_Smart]

"become a cop"?

Tracker is effectively a cop with one scum alive, because if you track someone and they don't visit the person who dies, they have to be town.

[Something_Smart]

Marci is confscum fmpov unless S_S is bussing Gamma

Nobody else can afford hitman after seeing mastina flip

Couldn't Gamma have it?

[Something_Smart]

Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that.

I mean, leaving the hitman unredacted makes sense to make it look like someone was framing Gamma, but why would I leave the watcher unredacted (and not redact anything!) if I were bidding on it as scum? It's not like I was already planning the Gamma frame, I couldn't have known that he would spend $499 on GF.

I think the lack of D2 redaction indicates that scum didn't win anything on D2 and wanted information about how much the roles went for. The lack of D4 redaction is harder to explain, but it could just be Gamma making a desperation play to lean into the "I was framed" angle.

[Something_Smart]

So why would scum Gamma submit the NK when the scum buddy could do it?

...because he has the hitman?

[Something_Smart]

Also just because anyone getting seen visiting mastina would be in trouble if they were the only visit since the ninja is gone, even if they could give a plausible explanation for it. So it makes sense to send your scummiest member to make the kill (and the 301 indicates that, at the very least, they were okay with losing Gamma today since they must have noticed the connection).

[Something_Smart]

Anyone swapping claims is pretty risky with the AD's going around. Even without them, it screws you over if the person with the money dies first.

[Something_Smart]

I guess I can probably just end the day then? Doesn't seem like there's anything else left to talk about.

[Something_Smart]

Hitman is effectively strongman, yeah.

[Something_Smart]

Okay before I go to bed

Quick End

[Something_Smart]

You should ask the mod again in more clear terms if you still think your track on me doesnt clear me of having visited Marci

It doesn't matter, I don't think. If Gamma tried to kill Marci that night, S&M wouldn't have seen ssbm go anywhere, so it's not a hard inno.

[Something_Smart]

Also, sorry to do this, but I thought the day would start much sooner. I'm going V/LA staring about 9 hours from this post and lasting about 4 days. So, either I have to figure out what to do with my vote before then, or we have to ask the mod for an extension.

Honestly, the best thing might just be to not vote, and request that ssbm and marci crossvote and let S&M decide. I think S&M has at least as good a chance of getting it right as I do, and probably a better one.

[Something_Smart]

If we couldn't get an extension, at least, I probably wouldn't trust myself to make the call so quickly.

But I guess we can see how the next 9 hours go, maybe we'll come to an agreement before then.

[Something_Smart]

It's more about making sure they understand, so they no longer have an excuse to talk about it as a point against me.

Yeah sure.

@S&M, I'm pretty sure that if someone attempts a kill but the target is JK'd, a tracker will see them visit still.

[Something_Smart]

Hm. It's probably TMI, especially since Gamma took the godfather, which doesn't make any sense for him to do if he knows the cop is buried.

[Something_Smart]

...How did you know the bid on hitman would be 301?

[Something_Smart]

No, it wasn't...

[Something_Smart]

Man, I know scumslips don't exist, but that REALLY sounds like one.

[Something_Smart]

The problem isn't that you misremembered, it's that you cited wanting to prove you didn't have 301 as the reason for wanting to bid on something, when only Gamma's partner could have known a 301 bid was coming.

[Something_Smart]

Seems pretty unlikely that they would bid the same weird amount on two things and only claim one of them.

[Something_Smart]

Also, I have a few more hours but I don't want to forget to announce it.

V/LA till Tuesday

[Something_Smart]

I don't think it's S&M.

Nancy tends to play pretty agenda-based when she's scum and she's not afraid to get into shitfights with people. I think their whole progression is pretty antithetical to that mindset-- how she immediately reached out to me when I replaced in and pretty quickly got a townread on me, and then she actually acted on that townread when it counted, and they got and played their PR's in a way that doesn't feel scum-motivated (especially when they tracked you and thought they cleared you which, while wrong, was likely genuine).

[Something_Smart]

I wasn't neighborized.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure if I'll be able to post any more after a little bit. I think it's best to leave my vote on nobody. I very much don't want to kill S&M; I think ssbm and marci should crossvote and S&M should decide, but if you guys want to petition the mod for an extension so I can provide more input you can.

[Something_Smart]

Back, gonna be in and out of service for a bit. Did some skimming, I'll try to address stuff now.

[Something_Smart]

Wrt Distance and marci, I think it's possible they inno'd her, but it's also possible that someone else like Flea got the cop.

I think the Distance kill points away from marci, inno or no inno, but my townread on S&M is much stronger than that, so that's why I framed it as S&M deciding between ssbm and marci.

[Something_Smart]

Regarding the track, it seems like you were initially mistaken. Ssbm did not attempt to kill marci. However, that's not conclusive, because Gamma could have attempted to kill marci that night.

[Something_Smart]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

[Something_Smart]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway; even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

[Something_Smart]

Maybe it wasn't clear that if I vote ssbm and then disappear for the rest of the day, that basically kills her, as long as marci also votes her and doesn't unvote. So if I were to put down a vote early in the day, I'd effectively be robbing you of any say at all in the decision.

Obviously the extension is the best of both worlds because now we can talk it through together. But if you are having doubts on my slot then you should put those to rest first because right now I can't tell if you're interrogating me or trying to work with me.

[Something_Smart]

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?

I mean, I was the first to point out that IF Distance had the cop, they were clearly softing an inno on marci. I certainly agree with that.

As I said before, I'm not willing to accept that Distance had the cop 100%, but I do agree that they're the most likely person to have had it. I do also agree that marci probably wouldn't kill her biggest cheerleader and I haven't forgotten that mastina also locked her as town and also died.

In fact, marci probably wasn't getting tracked by mastina, and it was public that mastina had won the tracker, so it makes a lot more sense for marci to carry out the kill on me and if Gamma gets tracked then it looks good for him.

[Something_Smart]

(Also, why does it worry you that I'm trying to do this my due diligence? If I were scum I could just go "yup marci is town let's kill ssbm and go home".)

[Something_Smart]

Well yeah, my point is that it's further evidence in favor of marci being town.

But if you're really 100% convinced that she's town already, then I guess I'll take your word for it.

VOTE: ssbm

[Something_Smart]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

If you're still not sure about me, this is the right track to look at. I can elaborate on this if need be, but for me to be scum would require me to do a lot of suboptimal and unnecessary things and also get lucky with the PR's.

And I mean, I would have no reason to fake a guilty on Gamma and complicate things when I could probably just fake one on ssbm and win.

[Something_Smart]

But the gulity on Gamma obviously wasn’t faked.

Well yeah, that's my point. If I were scum, it would be faked, and I wouldn't do that.

[Something_Smart]

Also regarding 1744, you didnt replace in late at all, it was early D2, and I dont like that you seem to be backtracking on cop!Distance/conftown!Marci

To claim that I backtracked is simply to misrepresent how I felt before... I always said it was a possibility, I never said it was a certainty.

[Something_Smart]

Pedit: I think it's weird to point it out as town if you don't put stock into it originally. I remember feeling on rereading you that it felt like you wanted to contribute something by pointing it out, but at the same time didnt want Marci absolutely cleared by it.

You don't remember the context under which I brought it up? We were talking about marci gravedigging Distance, so it was a highly relevant conditional. I always put 100% stock into the statement "If Distance had the cop, then they had an inno on marci" but there was no reason then to believe that Distance had the cop.

[Something_Smart]

I expected town!S_S to vote S&M or no elim after reading our D6, but certainly not me.

I've been calling S&M hard town all game. Why would you expect me to change my mind now?

[Something_Smart]

What do you mean the reasoning has never been there? I summed it up in 1614.

I think you're scum because I am confident S&M is town and they are confident marci is town (and I mostly agree with their reasoning).

[Something_Smart]

POE isn't enough today, if you were going to vote me for POE reasons and you were town you would have done it at daystart. As scum you'd be afraid to move too early.

If only there were a progression making it clear that I wasn't aware that Nancy had marci as locktown at the beginning of the day (if she even did, I feel like she probably didn't).

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it's a sheep...

[Something_Smart]

I mean... I'm obviously biased, but it seems pretty clear from this side of the pond. For me to be scum I would have had to do XYZ weird and suboptimal plays (and while I do love weird plays as scum, I would never do a suboptimal one like trading claims with AD's unaccounted for without any tangible benefit in mind) and also decide it's a good idea to guilty my partner for shits and giggles.

Whereas, for ssbm to be scum she has to... not have made the kill on one night.

[Something_Smart]

Basically she thinks there's no way Town!SS blindly sheeps us no matter what.

In what context? Before my V/LA, or after?

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, I just typed something I would probably regret saying and then backspaced it. But that's incredibly stupid. Sheeping people I trust is my MO as town, especially since I hate making decisions and will go to great lengths to abdicate responsibility for them.

[Something_Smart]

You were extremely opinionated in micro game. I don’t recall you sheeping anyone.

That's a one game sample size, and there was really nobody to be sheeping there...

[Something_Smart]

Like what is your basis for saying that. I can either continue to argue with you over a menial detail that probably doesn't matter when deadline is looming, or I can accept that if marci is scum she fooled you and take the highest probability course to win. You really think I would do the former as town?

[Something_Smart]

And when I initially tried to flip the votes to save you, your first choice was Distance.

Yes and what? Why do you think scum me would try to kill Distance and then tell everyone that they had inno'd Marci?

[Something_Smart]

Why wasn’t there?

Because jumping to conclusions is bad??

[Something_Smart]

Like if you want to talk about things I would or wouldn't do as whatever alignment

Why do I spend 499 on godfather when I know the cop is dead and then get my partner to claim it (opening us BOTH up to AD)? In what world is THAT a smart play? I'm better than that as scum.

[Something_Smart]

When did you ever do that in micro? I recall you had very strong opinions on reads.

I literally said "if Pooky is town he's never going to change his mind on me so I might as well assume he's scum"

Exact same logic as "if marci is scum S&M are never going to change their minds on her so I might as well assume she's town"

It's the exact same thing, and I use this kind of logic all the time.

[Something_Smart]

If I'm scum

Why did I bring it up in the first place

[Something_Smart]

And I'm "doubting" it because I have enough mafia experience to know that you can never be 100% sure of anything unless the mod told it to you.

I believe Distance likely inno'd marci. As do you.
I believe killing ssbm is the best course of action. I don't know if marci is 80% or 90% or 99% cleared or whatever, it doesn't matter, she isn't getting executed. Why does this matter AT ALL?

[Something_Smart]

And why would it benefit scum me to be fighting you on this anyway? If I'm scum, my winning mis-exe is always ssbm, never marci, that would have been obvious to me since several days ago. What would I have to gain besides pissing you off?

[Something_Smart]

It was Gamma and it looked like he was maybe hoping town spends 500 on it, because we know he claimed that.

Right okay, if Gamma himself spent 499 on GF, then we didn't swap roles. It follows that I was the one who got watcher for 500, and therefore I didn't get hitman for 301, and therefore I couldn't have killed last night because I was roleblocked.

Does that all make sense??

[Something_Smart]

I think Distance probably had the cop, like maybe an 80% chance.

Is that hard to understand?

[Something_Smart]

Just give me a yes/no, do you understand what I mean by that.

[Something_Smart]

But no one has claimed 2 shot hitman. I know we don’t have it. What does you spending 500 on have to do with Gamma spending 499 on GF?

Well, it was established that since I was RB'd last night, the only way I can be scum is if I swapped claims with Gamma so I would have enough to afford hitman. So that would require Gamma actually buying the watcher and me actually buying the godfather, so I would have 301 left. If you don't think that's what happened, then I can't be scum.

[Something_Smart]

Unfortunately we have no idea who Imaginality rb’d last night because Kyouku claimed 1 shot hitman.

... He RB'd me. He said he would do it yesterday and he confirmed it to marci in the hood.

[Something_Smart]

Yes but scum killed him and then they targeted Marci so she couldn’t confirm it. She couldn’t have anyway due to jk but why didn’t you watch Marci, why us? Considering that scum killed Distance and Marci was going to gravedig him. shouldn’t you have been watching her not us?

You were my strongest townread. I don't think we even knew the cop was dead by that point?

[Something_Smart]

he 100% roleblocked something_smart i think.

Please read.

[Something_Smart]

And it's been known that ssbm had the first hitman since day 1. That wasn't a shocking development. It didn't change anything.

[Something_Smart]

On N3 we did not know for sure the cop was dead, I don't think?

[Something_Smart]

And besides, I obviously didn't think that marci was absolutely town on D3. Neither did you. We didn't know nearly enough to say that confidently.

[Something_Smart]

Because he thought I would WIFOM out of it?
Because he thought he could win the 1v1?
Because he was counting on his partner to carry?
Because he just didn't think that far ahead? Hell if I know. It's not my job to justify the actions of dead scum. It's my job to explain why my actions don't make sense from scum, because they don't.

[Something_Smart]

That entire plan doesn't make any sense because I WAS THE ONE TO SAY DISTANCE MIGHT HAVE INNO'D MARCI. It's not even WIFOM. It's just me ruining my own plan! Once I've brought it out in the open, I can't be all sneaky sneaky trying to prevent you from figuring it out... If I wanted to keep that a secret I would just shut my goddamn mouth and quietly kill marci.

[Something_Smart]

And I was also literally the only person to sus Distance there. If I'm scum looking for the path of least resistance why do I pick someone whom nobody else scumreads and who was on the scum wagon?

[Something_Smart]

How do we know you have watcher and not 2 shot hitman?

What would I have instead of watcher? 2 shot AD? Why wouldn't I just claim that? If I wanted to call Gamma guilty I could just say he drafted hitman directly, that would be so much simpler and there's no reason to lie if I don't have to.

Or do you think I just have nothing and spent no money for the first 3 days?

[Something_Smart]

why would we get visited > gravedigger Marci?

Because marci could have been scum??

Feels like you're putting on revisionist glasses here. Nobody thought that Distance definitely had an inno on marci on D3. It is utterly hypocritical for you to say I should have known, when you did not know. (And you had a PR too, and arguably a more powerful one!)

[Something_Smart]

This is honestly just ridiculous.

You are bending over backwards trying to believe a narrative where I am scum and pull some stupid insane gambits that you already admitted are not at all within my comfort zone as scum, when there's absolutely no reason ssbm can't be scum. None at all. You are not pelting her with questions. Why? I don't know, but it's infuriating, and even more so because I don't doubt that you're trying to help town.

I have seen so many more games lost due to last-minute paranoia than won because of it. Trust me when I say (and I would not lie about this!) that your sudden theories are going to be less accurate than the ones you developed over the whole game.

[Something_Smart]

That’s especially why you sussing on her doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Well, Marci would probably be dead without the jk, so it’s obvious scum didn’t want her to gravedig Distance and if you were 80% sure that Distance had an inno on her, why did you want us to flip the votes to him?

I am 80% sure NOW, now that we've talked it over and massclaimed. I was not 80% sure THEN, or I obviously would have said something!

[Something_Smart]

How could town!you possibly know if Gamma drafted hitman and since no hitman was apparently needed to kill Mastina, how is this even relevant?

If I have the AD, which is what I'd pretty much need to have for that theory, town me could AD Gamma and find the hitman.

[Something_Smart]

scum!Watcher can swap claims with partner easier than others because Watcher can see if partner was AD'ed

Sure, but Gamma claimed GF D3, so he would be the one who would be AD'd if anyone. That doesn't help if he has the watcher.

[Something_Smart]

Like why didn’t you have this take on Kyouku sooner and instead of rereading the game, you say you’ll take our word that Marci’s town? Why wouldn’t you look to the actual game instead of sheeping us?

Because I rarely ever get anything out of rereading, and you brought up some valid points?

[Something_Smart]

No, the 2-shot is dead with either Distance or Cyrus, or scum!you or scum!marci have it - both of which are impossible in scum!S_S pov, so scum!S_S knows 2-shot AD is dead and 1-shot AD is used by the time he claims Watcher, meaning it could easily have been Gamma that had Watcher and tried to buy JK for 300

But Gamma claimed GF on D3, before scum could have known the AD was dead.

[Something_Smart]

JK was also redacted.

[Something_Smart]

What is the reason for us to swap rather than just hiding watcher and claiming it was for a different amount? Or hiding GF, or anything else?

[Something_Smart]

But why

wasn't

watcher redacted? If I was planning a swap with Gamma, surely that flexibility would be important?

[Something_Smart]

S_S seems more like trying to deflect off themself rather than solve

When you leave for V/LA as a universal townread and come back and this shitfest happens, tell me you wouldn't also be trying to deflect off yourself.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: ssbm

I probably won't make a case, but I can definitely address any questions you have.

[Something_Smart]

I mean... would you mind laying out the main arguments for and against each of us?

I feel like it just requires so many things to go exactly right for me to be scum, whereas there's nothing really preventing ssbm from being scum.

Like for me to be scum you have to assume that
- I killed Distance and then told everyone about the inno
- I swapped roles with Gamma without having any clue what roles were coming on the next day or whether that would pay off
- I took the godfather despite knowing (or at least suspecting) that the cop was dead-- note that we do know that scum took GF, but I was the one to give the Distance-cop theory so it's possible they didn't believe it or wanted to WIFOM.
- I decided to guilty Gamma and prolong the game instead of trying to execute ssbm for the win (which would still give me a chance of winning if I lost that 1v1, and S&M basically trusted me unequivocally)

And for ssbm to be scum there's... really not much you have to assume. Just that she went for the hitman D1 for towncred and then didn't make the kill on N3 when she was tracked.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I'm not one to make scum cases in general, and I didn't really scumread you until I was forced to by PoE. But I don't need to make an argument that you're scum, I only need to make an argument that I'm not.

[Something_Smart]

-godfather was taken as part of the plan to reverse your bid claims. Scum knew no townie would want it so there was no chance of being outbid, and scum needed us to see 499+301 means that Gamma won godfather and hitman.

But at this point, it wasn't known that 301 would be enough to secure a PR on D4. It could just have easily been 400+400 or anything else.

I can only assume that Gamma spent so much on GF because he actually wanted it, which would mean that scum didn't know who got the cop or if they'd used it yet. And then he saw people calling out the bid and he freaked out and realized that he was gonna get caught if he didn't claim it.

[Something_Smart]

If the slipped-through ability had been Daykill, you could have won it and not used it after Gamma was guiltied and pushed us to no lim so we could get down to odd numbers. Then you could have used nightkill and daykill to bring it to 1-1 and win.

Yeah this definitely sounds like a plan that would work. "Hey guys I know scum have a missing daykill but probably the guy who got guiltied had it and just didn't use it but it's totally safe to no-exe and go to 2:1, right?"

Also, I didn't really think of it before, but the number of scum powers that came up may be indicative of the MO bringing them up. (Maybe not; it could also be that she tried to LAMIST it but got unlucky.) Daykill would actually have been great for town on D4-- since we were on evens, it doesn't help scum get majority, but they have to make sure a townie doesn't get it. Hitman was pretty much the most pro-scum power that could come up.

[Something_Smart]

What part are you confused about?

[Something_Smart]

Specifically, the only theory that makes any sense for me being scum is if I swapped claims with Gamma, so I actually got the godfather and he got the watcher, and that's how I was able to afford hitman (since I was RB'd after Gamma died, I can't be scum unless I have the hitman).

This theory would require us to have planned the swap before we even knew what was coming on the next day or whether it would pay off.

[Something_Smart]

^and that last paragraph is exactly the kind of insight into the solve that S_S has not provided in this game, and I've been working on my analysis all throughout xlo to make sure I'm making the right decision. Analyzing every angle, taking my time, suggesting that we no lim for the extra day phase, etc. And I actually used my time to solve this. S_S hasn't done that.

This is worth responding to. All this is totally true, and totally NAI. I don't have to do a whit of analysis, unless marci asks for it. The analysis isn't worth anything; it doesn't prove anything, it just shows a possible world. If marci is having any trouble understanding why the world I'm presenting, I am happy to dive into it... but aside from that, doing this kind of analysis like you are is just trying to overwhelm her with lots of words, when she's already admitted she's having trouble processing everything.

[Something_Smart]

I mean... would you mind laying out the main arguments for and against each of us?

I feel like it just requires so many things to go exactly right for me to be scum, whereas there's nothing really preventing ssbm from being scum.

Like for me to be scum you have to assume that
- I killed Distance and then told everyone about the inno
- I swapped roles with Gamma without having any clue what roles were coming on the next day or whether that would pay off
- I took the godfather despite knowing (or at least suspecting) that the cop was dead-- note that we do know that scum took GF, but I was the one to give the Distance-cop theory so it's possible they didn't believe it or wanted to WIFOM.
- I decided to guilty Gamma and prolong the game instead of trying to execute ssbm for the win (which would still give me a chance of winning if I lost that 1v1, and S&M basically trusted me unequivocally)

And for ssbm to be scum there's... really not much you have to assume. Just that she went for the hitman D1 for towncred and then didn't make the kill on N3 when she was tracked.

It's pretty much all here. For me to be scum would require a lot of convoluted and risky plays, and although I'm not a stranger to complexity I would never make things this complicated if I could use a more straightforward plan such as guiltying ssbm instead of Gamma. (And based on how S&M were acting that would have probably won on the spot if I were scum.)

[Something_Smart]

Uh, getting a guilty on scum? Does that count?

[Something_Smart]

Are you looking for any argument why I'm town, or specifically actions that I wouldn't have done at all as scum?

Because like the fact that a role swap would be required is a pretty solid reason why I'm town, but I wouldn't say that's a "towny thing I've done" per se.

[Something_Smart]

In terms of things I actually did, I think I was a lot more insistent and interactive with my townreads (especially S&M, but all of them to some extent) than I usually am as scum.

[Something_Smart]

You're gonna have to be more specific, I think. I can barely remember anything from the early days, only the most big-picture things. And by the time we got to like D4 the roles were everything.

[Something_Smart]

Besides, if you don't know my meta, I can't really imagine I could make a more compelling town case on myself than you could by just reading my ISO.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I still don't really understand what you're looking for, or why you think it will help.

My play this game was basically centered around spending a lot to grab an important role and then trying to use that role effectively, which I did, and the amount I spent makes as much of my money accountable as possible. In terms of non-mechanics stuff it was mostly identifying townies (VFP, mastina, S&M) and trying to work with them, though only really succeeding in the case of S&M. And I do think I worked great with S&M until the end when their paranoia got stirred up while I was V/LA and couldn't talk to them about it.

My scumgame is generally just a stiff imitation of the kinds of things I do in my towngame. So hanging back, identifying townreads, and trying to work with them, these things all happen when I'm scum, but generally in a more shitty way (how much more shitty depends on whether I'm having a good day or not). But the stuff this game that wouldn't happen when I'm scum... that's the mechanics. Sorry, I can route around it, but I'm not really gonna give anything interesting. I'm a strong mechanical player; the mechanics play from scum this game was sloppy, and, if I'm scum, risky. And guiltying my partner when there's a perfectly available mis-exe instead is just... pointless. I don't intentionally make things harder on myself like that.

[Something_Smart]

Yup. It sucks.

I wouldn't really blame you for hammering me, S&M really dropped the ball there. But I do think it is solvable.

[Something_Smart]

Well, just don't miss the deadline and you'll be fine.

[Something_Smart]

Actually, the context behind ssbm's Gamma vote is pretty interesting. VFP was at 2 (and Gamma 0), then ssbm votes VFP, then Gamma and marci hop on VFP back-to-back. Then ssbm switches to mastina, and soon thereafter to Gamma, bringing it to VFP 4 Gamma 1 (he was not close to execution). He came a little closer after S&M switched off VFP and imaginality switched on Gamma, but it still would have taken a very precise switch to get Gamma killed.

And, she didn't explain it very well. Her justification was literally "The more I think about the play and not the bids I think it has to be Gamma." So I think it makes perfect sense for that to be a throwaway distancing vote not meant to go anywhere.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, I'm around, if you wanted to ask anything quick.

[Something_Smart]

You prompted me to go back and look.

[Something_Smart]

day 7 ends in (expired on 2021-07-25 17:46:50)

[Something_Smart]

I suppose.

If you don't have any questions, I don't think there's really anything left to talk about.

[Something_Smart]

...what exactly was good about it?

Like, it's not hard to spew out bullshit endlessly about why you're town and the other person is scum. It doesn't really prove anything except that you are more dedicated to the game. And you specifically mentioned that you were overwhelmed and didn't want to be confused so, like... I'm not sure why that's a positive.

I could have argued back against everything ssbm said, but I guarantee that you would not have enjoyed the resulting shitstorm.

[Something_Smart]

why do u think imaginality was killed at that time something_smart..?

I don't know, I'm not going to pretend that it's easy to read into NK's even knowing who's scum. He was pretty much impossible to exe, and probably also hard to influence?

[Something_Smart]

Uh, why did the game end...?

[Something_Smart]

Whatever, probably wouldn't have changed anyway, but there were still 2 hours left in the day.

No objections to releasing the mafia PT. When it's opened you guys can see how wrong you were about everything but still managed to get to the right conclusion for ??? reasons.

[Something_Smart]

We didn't kill Distance because of the supposed cop crumb. We knew it wasn't a real cop crumb because my slot got the cop.

We didn't bid on JK. Just hid it because we didn't have anything better to do with the hide.

Gamma took the GF because he didn't realize that I had the cop; we did plan to frame him as having the hitman, but we didn't come up with that plan until D4.

[Something_Smart]

I wasn't really expecting them to lock marci as town for a reason I knew was spurious. And, I thought it would be suspicious for me to just drop a vote on ssbm and yeet out without any opportunity to change it.

[Something_Smart]

I mean the day started like 24 hours later than it was supposed to. I was expecting to have plenty of time to warn people about the V/LA.

[Something_Smart]

Not sure if my plans had been fully finalized before the night started. Sorry about that. I also didn't expect D6 to go at all how it did.

[Something_Smart]

That... doesn't make any sense. I would have been just as suspicious of marci, if not more, as town, and it doesn't benefit scum-me to be trying to broaden the execution pool when I only need one more.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think it was clear-cut as you think it was. The discussion of the cop inno only really became conclusive on D6. I misread the table, for sure, but I don't see why you think I wouldn't make the same misread as town. (Because I'm pretty sure I would.)

[Something_Smart]

It's not like it was a scum tactic or anything-- if I had known you and ssbm were never voting marci, it would have made my life much easier; I could have just voted ssbm and peaced out.

[Something_Smart]

For me to bus him. Pretty much all of our plays, except the kills, were my idea.

[Something_Smart]

And I do feel like we would have been in a lot more hot water if we didn't bus there. Maybe just faking a guilty on ssbm was better, though, not sure.