Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!

[Hectic]

Hectic and Pavowski are still where I'm leaning. Maybe Vulture instead of Hectic, but I don't feel as strongly there, though Hectic and Pav are just gut reads anyways. Spend some time looking at T3's iso if it helps you eliminate some possible misfires.

Elaborate on your gut read on me? First I'm hearing of it

[Hectic]

Here's a simple exercise:

I've quoted two posts from different times with similar circumstances. Galron the gunbearer asks Pav why he's town. Galron the gunbearer tells marci she has 24 hours.

Spoiler:

Marci -- you've got 24 hours.

am i being threatened :cool: :cool:
idk what to say, but i promise im town :cool: u can ask any questions u have tho !!

Sure these posts may be a bit content-devoid, their tone I

think

is way townier than early game

i am not content devoid wtf :cry: :cry:

Spoiler:

Why are you town?

What a question. I mean, the short answer is green text in my pm

The longer answer is I'm trying to find scum and I'm trying to make my thinking clear to the group. I think we have found scum in Marci, whose "how could anybody possibly suspect me" schtick is pretty much all she's offered. I think she's a good shot and I think a red flip there would tell us a lot. (I say that fully aware that if she's town, she seems likely to shoot me at this point when she gets the gun, and that's the game if it goes that way... But I don't think she survives getting shot.)

I'm also trying to clean up my reads list because I keep forgetting there are 4 scum in this lobby which from my POV means half the non-gunbearing players are out here bullshitting. I have a bad habit of interacting with everybody as if they're town and forgetting that the entire point of this game is for a subset of the players to make bad-faith arguments.

Anyway, take a look at my reads and decide if you trust me not to lose the game.

Because if you shoot me, I have to shoot to keep the game alive. Personally I don't like my chances right now because I don't have a ton of confidence in any of my reads. I think I've also made it pretty clear where I'd likely aim first.

Do you see the difference; and which is from town, and which is from scum? One is rather nonchalant and almost dismissive, the person isn't overly concerned with being shot because hey, they'll get the gun.

The other writes a wall trying their best to change the gunbearer's mind, since being shot = DEATH.

Additionally, Pav's situation isn't even Galron threating to shoot him or intent, yet Pav tried his utmost best to sway Galron from shooting him. Sure, he claims it's because he's not confident in his reads, but the survivalistic mindset is very scum-indicative.

Btw I've bolded parts in that post that felt very off

[Toogeloo]

Elaborate on your gut read on me? First I'm hearing of it

You seem more passive aggressive and generally unconfident than I have seen you in the past.

[Hectic]

I believe your sample size is the game where I was olaf/Pyro

Yeah, that was a alt playstyle choice to be more bombastic and confident

[Hectic]

Oh, and [post=pichu]pichu[/post] lol, how could I forget

Yeah, I can see why you'd have that impression actually. I just ramp up the aggression and confidence for versus games

[Hectic]

pichu

[Pavowski]

Do you see the difference; and which is from town, and which is from scum? One is rather nonchalant and almost dismissive, the person isn't overly concerned with being shot because hey, they'll get the gun.

The other writes a wall trying their best to change the gunbearer's mind, since being shot = DEATH.

You're making 2 mistakes here.

1 you're assuming a scum flip from me which is not coming no matter how convinced you may be (but I've been there this game, I can relate) (if you're town of course but less and less I think this is possible)

2 you're assuming I shouldn't care if I get shot. Well, then as now I don't want to get shot because every villager shot puts us closer to a loss, and then as now if I get shot on this round the game is on my shoulders for the subsequent shot. Not a situation I want to yawn my way into.

[Pavowski]

Hey Enchant. How do you feel about the Marci flip? Who would you shoot? What did you have for breakfast? Give us something.

[Vulture]

Hmm.

Might have been asked this before but Pav, what would you be doing as scum right now?

[Lukewarm]

Hectic and Pavowski are still where I'm leaning. Maybe Vulture instead of Hectic, but I don't feel as strongly there, though Hectic and Pav are just gut reads anyways. Spend some time looking at T3's iso if it helps you eliminate some possible misfires.

Can you talk to me about your Hectic read?

[Pavowski]

Hmm.

Might have been asked this before but Pav, what would you be doing as scum right now?

Don't think I have been asked that in this game.

I'd probably be trying to poke holes in the towncred of anybody being correctly townread

And generally trying to muddy the waters for the gunbearer's shot

Or maybe just hanging back while the loud voices in the room joust against each other

Not sure how I'd be playing it to be honest, it would depend who my partners were and who's town.

[Enchant]

Hey Enchant. How do you feel about the Marci flip? Who would you shoot? What did you have for breakfast? Give us something.

1. I didn't care.
2. Depends how many misshots we all have. If 1+, i would shot most townie player here. Simple to screw over possible mafia who could carry win like that or give gun to competent guy. If 0, well... random.org. Not even joking, i mostly win when shoting on random and fail when use reads.
3. Eggs.

[Toogeloo]

Can you talk to me about your Hectic read?

Literally 7 posts before you asked this, to which Hectic replied over 3 posts.

[Lukewarm]

Can you talk to me about your Hectic read?

Literally 7 posts before you asked this, to which Hectic replied over 3 posts.

Yeah, I was reading in order, and asked before I got there.

[Toogeloo]

My suggestion to Marci is to ignore people directing their shot and to iso dive T3. Try and eliminate who is likely town from T3's posts, then use their gut on the remaining slots. Shooting someone town read is fine for deep wolf shenanigans, but this is the last opportunity we can do it where risk vs reward isn't at it's worst.

Try to remember that from the perspective of anyone who is still town other than Marci, that 50% of the remaining players are scum. They will be pushing each other to look more town, almost assuredly, so people saying who their "top 3" scumspects are (myself included) should be ignored and just do your best to solve based on the information we have, which is not terrible since we have one flipped mafia already.

[marcistar]

I think I have been talked about Vulture a bit before this, do you want me to go back over him?

yes sir

I would still strongly lean to shooting Pav over Lukewarm after seeing these recent posts

hectic x luke pog??

I did not like her response to my intent and didn't answer me on scumcasing vulture before I pulled the trigger.

you like did it too fast

marci, I

guess

I don't mind getting shot but you should shoot Pav first if you want that sweet sweet cred smh

what does this mean what if i dont trust u the most hehe <3

Galron is right that this is the final chance to shoot someone townread on the suspicion that they are deepwolfing. The best shot is still your gut though, Marci.

what if i shoot u

Hectic and Pavowski are still where I'm leaning. Maybe Vulture instead of Hectic, but I don't feel as strongly there, though Hectic and Pav are just gut reads anyways.

toogeloo x vulture pog??

That said, I was wrong about you Marci, my bad.

gib ur team prediction

Galron is right that this is the final chance to shoot someone townread on the suspicion that they are deepwolfing. The best shot is still your gut though, Marci.

I've been weakly gutreading Toog as town recently but this just feels so town to me. If scum this is basically just taking a dice roll

toogeloo x vulture x pavowski pog??

Prodded. Don’t feel great IRL, so motivation isn’t the best. Sorry, Marci.

its fine bestie, when u get back give me ur top 4 reasons on why i shouldnt shoot u tho

Additionally, Pav's situation isn't even Galron threating to shoot him or intent, yet Pav tried his utmost best to sway Galron from shooting him. Sure, he claims it's because he's not confident in his reads, but the survivalistic mindset is very scum-indicative.

what if pavowski just didnt want a misshoot to happen smhsmh

Hey Enchant. How do you feel about the Marci flip? Who would you shoot? What did you have for breakfast? Give us something.

1. I didn't care.

why didnt u care..? didnt u have a townread on me?

toogeloo

bestie, can u explain to me why i should shoot [the players u scumread] instead of just shooting u rn?

[Toogeloo]

Uh, I don't care if you shoot me. I've wanted the gun since the game started. I'm willing to lose the game if I shoot wrong and want to test my ability to hipfire.

I mean, you do whatever, but I'm not about to try and convince you not to shoot me. If you are WIFOMing over to shoot me because of that, well, welcome to the game and why you should be ignoring what people tell to do.

[Toogeloo]

If you shoot me, I'll be shooting my scum reads anyways, so...

[Enchant]

why didnt u care..? didnt u have a townread on me?

Why i should?

[HockeyFan]

Sorry if I havent been posting as much recently. Its demotivating to play this setup when u cant do anything without the gun lol. I think my 3 sr's still stand. I do like Togeloo trying to SR people out of consensus sr's so togeloo is probs town here

[Pavowski]

This is off topic, but we now have 3 players who have openly expressed reluctance to play/post due to not holding the gun and I just don't get it, I think this setup is fascinating. But to each their own!

[Pavowski]

gib ur team prediction

Really difficult but I'll do my best.

My elim pool is Luke, Hectic, Vulture, and Enchant right this second. Hockey seems unlikely and Toog is gutpinging me hard as town over their recent posts.

Problem is I don't see a ton of scum equity among those 4, although this setup doesn't necessarily lend itself to the scum team showing a lot of equity. I also have a hard time thinking Luke and Hectic could be teamed, though I don't think I could articulate a good reason for that.

So... Enchant, Vulture, Luke/Hectic.

I go back and forth on Hectic. On one hand I feel like he's reading me unfavorably at almost every opportunity to try and get me shot. On the other he could be genuinely scum hunting and I just look bad for him. I know I was all gung-ho shoot Hectic this morning but honestly he's still one that could flip either way and not surprise me at all. (I double-talk myself a lot, which is probably the source of most of the scumreads against me, but I am what I am.)

Gun to head, I'd shoot Hectic over Luke. Ask me again in a couple hours and that could change.

But tomorrow's Saturday so I'm planning to re-read the game and see if my gutfeels line up with a look back.

[Pavowski]

Also sorry if I'm being extra-thick again but I dunno what pog means?

[HockeyFan]

This is off topic, but we now have 3 players who have openly expressed reluctance to play/post due to not holding the gun and I just don't get it, I think this setup is fascinating. But to each their own!

Yea I didnt mean to mean it that way, Its just that A. im in other games B. This game feels stale cuz I have my Sr's pretty much locked in. Maybe i have a conf bias on you(pav), but I think you're scum regardless. Hectic tunneling this makes me TR hectic a bit less tho so ehhh maybe things could change but i think not

[Pavowski]

I mean he's wrong, but I was way wrong on Marci so I guess I can't be mad about it. The question is if he's wrong because he's scum or because I don't know how to not sound scummy.

Actually, I guess it could be both.

Anyway, refresh my memory? Your solve is me + ?