Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!

[Toogeloo]

I have a history of shooting Cops and Doctors as Vigilante. Obviously, I should eventually have the gun. This game seems like it has the possibility of being over quick lol.

[Toogeloo]

I already have a couple people in mind I'd probably hipfire.

[Toogeloo]

Hockey and T3 slobbin' each other's knobs.

[Toogeloo]

I'll holster my udder for now

if you cock your udder, is that akin to masterbation?

[Toogeloo]

Toog is here but not contributing.

Maybe I want the gun so I can hipfire my gut reads.

[Toogeloo]

Toog is here but not contributing.

Maybe I want the gun so I can hipfire my gut reads.

Or you could get townread.

How am I supposed to be shot if I'm being town read?

[Toogeloo]

I'm up to 3 names on my hipfire list.

[Toogeloo]

The people you want to hipfire are presumably people you SR, so whats the point of hiding this info from town

I don't want those people to alter their play just yet.

[Toogeloo]

I don't even read Art's posts.

[Toogeloo]

That was udder-ly disappointing. It's not worth having a cow and crying over spilt milk, however.

[Toogeloo]

Oh, and I like Luke for town. I'm pickin' up good vibrations, he's giving me excitations.

[Toogeloo]

4 seems like a lot for an 11 player game, but probably makes sense since we are nightless

It's pretty much just a 3 strikes game. 4 scum is kind of a lot, but they can't eliminate obvtown as a balance.

We are at Strike 1.

[Toogeloo]

Is that toog read based on meta, Art? Which posts?

He's voiced exactly 1 townread and 0 scumreads this game so far. He doesn't seem to care much about the popcorn vender having the right information to shoot scum, not interested in expressing who he thinks they should shoot etc

This is a game for heroes. Scum have equal opportunity to sway the gun holder's opinion. Voting means nothing and the majority really have no sway. I'm treating this game like a variation of Bad Idea, but more as an exercise in letting the gun holder test their own ability to read slots.

I have exactly 3 people I would shoot. Those three people have been expressed as people that other players would shoot as well. I don't need to voice my opinion on who they are unless I have the gun.

[Toogeloo]

In a way, I kind of see it almost tactically beneficial to sign up for this game as an alt if you might possibly be perceived as a threat as town from scum in order to avoid being chosen for the first gun.

PEdit:

This doesn't change your stance there, Toog?

Nope. Galron can say that as an attempt to see where slots vote and still shoot elsewhere. It's just as easily a gambit for them. I don't intend on voting at all. With as many scum as there are in the game, it's foolish to trust votes.

[Toogeloo]

I want to be shot.

[Toogeloo]

I say, GG.

[Toogeloo]

I've been known to die on a lot of hills. It's not outside my scum range lol.

[Toogeloo]

Generally, scum like to keep their options open more. Means they have less explaining/faking to do on progressions down the line if they need to scumread someone they previous townread or vice versa

I think the main reason it's scum-indicative though is that most scum feel taking a hard stance one way or another feels more risky, and is more prone to criticism/suspicion. Being open on the read feels like the safer route which is harder to scumread for specific points

And yet you town read me because I have vague reads (I could literally name any three people at any time since) and am WIFOMing the player list that I want to be shot.

/winkyface

[Toogeloo]

I'll throw you a bone.

One of the three people I would shoot immediately upon getting the gun is T3.

[Toogeloo]

Look at it this way. If I don't get shot, then if I'm town, I'm still doing my job.

As for T3, I'll just simply say that I didn't like a majority of his early game interactions.

[Toogeloo]

Luke is a saint though, and I would never shoot there.

[Toogeloo]

So, here's why votes and being town read is a fallacy in this game.

Scum CANNOT kill another player. Town does all the killing. So a player who is almost universally town read can live forever in this game. A potential scenario (and in actuality, one of the best plays they can do) for a scum win includes one of them bussing the ever living crap out of the rest of their team and convincing gun owners to shoot scum teammates along with town. This gives the bussing scum member some value of longevity in the game since it's a known fact that scum cannot eliminate threats to them. There can't be a scenario in a game like this where the gunowner questions why the most town read player is still alive, because scum can't kill the most town read players anyways. A player who makes it to endgame who helped decide the fate of 1 or more scum is still just as likely scum as whoever else is in endgame.

It is 100% on the gunbearer, and their ability to read and trust themselves to make the decision that they think is best for the town win, and not a good idea to trust votes, or how a target consensus was reached. This is why the game is more akin to something like Bad Idea.

[Toogeloo]

Gunbearer works better in the hands of players who are more likely to not give a shit about town reads and votes, and the best shots are the ones where you trust yourself and your gut and don't second guess yourself or allow yourself to be directed in any manner.

[Toogeloo]

Last thing I'm going to say is that I have a very slight suspicion that T3 scum slipped a partner, but I'd need T3 to flip scum first before I divulge my suspicion and why. If I had the gun, I'd just shoot T3 and then follow up with the second shot if I was right.

[Toogeloo]

The closest thing scum gets to a Night Kill is if the Gunbearer doesn't shoot at all, and they get to choose a new Gunbearer. So, Galron, shoot soon.

[Toogeloo]

I'd like TO flipped, then if scum I'll say where I think they scum slipped a partner.

Or Galron can shoot me, and I'll rapid fire if I'm right

[Toogeloo]

T3*

[Toogeloo]

Nope.

[Toogeloo]

Here is where I think T3 slipped his partner....

Players in order of readability:
Really easy: Lukewarm, marcistar
Also ez but slightly less: Pavowski, Toogeloo
I have some idea: Enchant, HockeyFan
Screw alts:

Hectic alt

, Galron, Vulture
OPENWOLF: NM

I had no idea that Art was Hectic's alt until Hectic officially replaced into the game. After he replaced in, I went and looked at Art's posting history. There is no reference that Art was Hectic there. So then I checked Hectic's posting history, and I went all the way back to the beginning of July (Art was born mid-July). There was no mention of an Art alt there. So how did T3 know that Art was Hectic's alt? An alt like that probably needs an ego post from it's main account in a private topic, especially for easier communicating.

My suspicion is Hectic made himself known in the mafia chat and T3 slipped that knowledge in the beginning of the game.

If I had the gun, Hectic would be my next shot.

My third suspect is Pavowski, which is more gut.

[Toogeloo]

Bah, alright. Guess that theory is shot.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, the main reason I wanted to keep it quiet is I wanted to see how Hectic played it out. I tried to verbalize how optimal scum play would be to make sure people weren't just assuming pro-town play meant someone was hard locked town, something Hectic as scum would very much employ.

I'm not going to clear Hectic, but my hope there was a scumslip to help dunk the case is sadly not there.

Pavowski still remains my strongest scum read based on gut.

The only non-GB person I feel comfortably as town is Luke.

[Toogeloo]

I agree with all the points Luke made about Hockey, and I recall feeling like Hockey and T3 having really weird interactions early in the game. I believe the term I used was they were, "slobbin' each other's knobs."

Hockey is someone who shouldn't make it to endgame.

[Toogeloo]

I'm slightly curious where I disappeared to in Pavowski's reads. I was a bottom two for them before T3 was shot, then completely excluded from the reads after.

[Toogeloo]

I suggest you shoot Galron Art or Vulture unless someone develops a strong opinion against that.

Hectic or Vulture might not be a bad shot. Just sayin'.

[Toogeloo]

I'm not saying both, but there is this thing called the Rule of 3 that some members like to use.

[Toogeloo]

The suspense...

[Toogeloo]

It dawned on me that the Gunbearer should always make a final thoughts list when shooting. The person who has been shot doesn't need to leave reads, that is pointless.

[Toogeloo]

I empathize with Luke, but will not answer for him.

I myself have been known to have questionable trajectory changes as town. In fact I actually like it as a town tell for most players as scum already don't want to have to explain their reads and changes in opinion more than they have to.

[Toogeloo]

Honestly, I don't mind the pacing of this game. It lends itself well to people playing multiple games for those of us doing so.

[Toogeloo]

That being said, I figured the kills would be happening at least a little more frequently.

[Toogeloo]

Galron is right that this is the final chance to shoot someone townread on the suspicion that they are deepwolfing. The best shot is still your gut though, Marci.

[Toogeloo]

Hectic and Pavowski are still where I'm leaning. Maybe Vulture instead of Hectic, but I don't feel as strongly there, though Hectic and Pav are just gut reads anyways. Spend some time looking at T3's iso if it helps you eliminate some possible misfires.

[Toogeloo]

Elaborate on your gut read on me? First I'm hearing of it

You seem more passive aggressive and generally unconfident than I have seen you in the past.

[Toogeloo]

Can you talk to me about your Hectic read?

Literally 7 posts before you asked this, to which Hectic replied over 3 posts.

[Toogeloo]

My suggestion to Marci is to ignore people directing their shot and to iso dive T3. Try and eliminate who is likely town from T3's posts, then use their gut on the remaining slots. Shooting someone town read is fine for deep wolf shenanigans, but this is the last opportunity we can do it where risk vs reward isn't at it's worst.

Try to remember that from the perspective of anyone who is still town other than Marci, that 50% of the remaining players are scum. They will be pushing each other to look more town, almost assuredly, so people saying who their "top 3" scumspects are (myself included) should be ignored and just do your best to solve based on the information we have, which is not terrible since we have one flipped mafia already.

[Toogeloo]

Uh, I don't care if you shoot me. I've wanted the gun since the game started. I'm willing to lose the game if I shoot wrong and want to test my ability to hipfire.

I mean, you do whatever, but I'm not about to try and convince you not to shoot me. If you are WIFOMing over to shoot me because of that, well, welcome to the game and why you should be ignoring what people tell to do.

[Toogeloo]

If you shoot me, I'll be shooting my scum reads anyways, so...

[Toogeloo]

I'm at Hectic + Enchant as well, and I've started coming around to Pav-town. I like your solve, Luke.

[Toogeloo]

Yes I think enchant is scum, all I'm saying is I'd rather he not be the shot when it's do-or-die time. I'd rather settle Luke/hectic first then, assuming we get a red flip (although if both flipped green that's GG but I think that's near impossible), move on to the enchant question.

Of course that all comes down to Marci but them's my thoughts.

This reflects my thoughts exactly, though in my mind I've pretty much concluded that Enchant must be scum in any combination of remaining three. However I'm not willing to put what might be the final shot of the game in their hands.

I strongly feel Luke and Pavowski are town here, and think any shot outside these two has high scum equity.

[Toogeloo]

Don't say who you are thinking about shooting, but go through these exercises.

First, have you iso'd T3 and come to any conclusion who you this is more than likely town? Eliminate them from your pool of shots.

Second, did you get any pings in the iso that you feel has higher scum equity than other slots?

Finally, is there any shot you don't feel comfortable taking?

After considering those three things, trust your gut and fire at anyone you are comfortable with. It's not misfire and lose, so just take the shot you personally trust most. Try to ignore the distractions of all other players, myself included. Keep your reads to yourself and work it out internally.

Almost half the players left alive are attempting to direct the shot where they want you to think scum is, but are themselves scum, so you must block out the distraction and work with logic and your own gut.

[Toogeloo]

Marci, if you are confident in your town reads, then you shouldn't be saying where you want to shoot ahead of the shot.

[Toogeloo]

I'm not willing to bet there is one scum in Hectic/Luke. My concern is that Marci shoots Hectic and he is town, and then he shoots Luke who is also town.

I've been toiling around with the possibility that the scum team is Enchant, Hockey, and Vulture for the past 24 hours.

I'd rather Marci shoot me then Hectic or Luke since I would probably shoot Enchant, then Hockey, and then hash out the final shot after that if I'm right.

[Toogeloo]

Eh, I probably missed where you said it.

[Toogeloo]

I think that my solve atm is

One of [Hockey+Hectic] + Vulture

Yep. And really, the only reason I keep putting Hectic back on the table in my mind is because he keeps suggesting you and I are in the solve.

[Toogeloo]

whats wrong with that?

Well... I know I'm town and I've had Luke as damn near locktown since udders had the gun. When people continually push a paranoia agenda that includes me and my biggest town read, I tend to take offense.

[Toogeloo]

Enchant's iso is pretty weak, maybe a couple things to glean from it. Hopefully nothing that will require nearly 10 days before the next shot is taken though.

[Toogeloo]

Whatever the choice, can you please not take all of the deadline to get to it lol. There really isn't much reason why the Gunbearer can't have the shot narrowed in within a couple days at this point.

[Toogeloo]

I will say one thing about Enchant's iso. He forgot Hectic in his list on who should be shot when Galron had the gun. I want to say that scum are probably more likely to forget a town name than a scum name on a list of players.

My solve still remains Hockey and Vulture today.

[Toogeloo]

[Toogeloo]

I feel like Marci is low-key trolling, tbqh. Either that or they probably spend 30 minutes trying to figure out which breakfast cereal they want in the morning.

[Toogeloo]

I didn't like Pav early Day 1, but he became a town read by Day 3.

[Toogeloo]

My shoot recommendations are at

People I trust with a gun: Art and me

People that I think might flip scum : Hockey, T3, Marci

I'm townreading t3 which makes me nervous and makes me think I should be scum reading him.

If I read Marci on this game alone I'd peg her as scummy, but Marci here does not feel like scum!Marci as I've seen her. I dunno if I'd shoot there.

Hockey I'm not sure about. Initial impression was scummy but if he's scum it's a pretty lazy effort.

Ugh everybody alive has a 50/50 shot at being scum, do not like. Gonna review d1 when I get back to my laptop.

This was the post that I hated the most from Pav.

[Toogeloo]

Interestingly, that quote capture by Luke does fulfill the rule of 3, lol.

[Toogeloo]

I think Hockey should hipfire at you, we're at a point in the game state that you being fired at is healthy.

[Toogeloo]

Oh thank god

Is this something town Luke says after saying they were afraid of taking the elo shot?

[Toogeloo]

If Luke flips scum, Pav should be shot next. If Pav flips town, he can shoot me and I'll choose between Hectic and Vulture.

[Toogeloo]

Well, if I'm shot, I will be shooting Pav.

[Toogeloo]

Not gonna lie. My whole goal this game has been to get shot, and my posted reads aren't really things anyone should take seriously because I might do something completely different.

[Toogeloo]

Meh. In all seriousness, the final scum is Hectic. I just wanted the chance to shoot him myself.

[Toogeloo]

It doesn't matter what he says right this second. He just needs to sound town enough to get to Final 3 and make his case when he gets there.

[Toogeloo]

Pretty funny that you think the Hectic vs Luke gladiate saga is ever S/S, Toog. Our interactions this game are some Sydney Opera House level theatre if we're S/S.

It's called distancing.

[Toogeloo]

If Luke scum, you could shoot Vulture. If Vulture is town, then Vulture shoots me. I can't imagine Hectic having an issue with that.

[Toogeloo]

Please tell me Arc hasn't left for the day and we have to wait 24 hours for a flip.

[Toogeloo]

I swear, Hectic you better either shoot Mafia, or shoot me. Cuz if we go into 3p LimLo and I have to defend myself after begging for the gun all game, I'm going to be sour.

[Toogeloo]

Why are you so certain Pav is town?

[Toogeloo]

You should explain why it's a flawless plan before you shoot at least.

[Toogeloo]

Well, if you are going to hinge the whole game on, "As long as we don't shoot Pav," we're going to need to know exactly why.

There was a point in the game where some were saying I was 100% town and never should be shot, yet here we are.

I've made few missteps in this game, and been fooled by a read or two. Maybe you are a better judge than me. You should still do it because if you miss, the person taking the next shot should be at least understanding your reasoning.

[Toogeloo]

(Also I realized in this post I've been using "he" for Toog instead of "they", my apologies for that)

My pronoun is actually, "He," but I have, "They," listed as a reminder to myself to use They/Them on anyone I'm not familiar with as I feel it is less likely to unintentionally insult another user.

I made a joke in a previous game that my pronoun could be, "asshat," for all I cared, and someone jokingly said that they would be using that for me from now on.

----

I think the way scum behave earlier in the game is more important than how they behave at the end of the game. I feel this is true in every game of Mafia, and not just this game. Scum will change their play to be fluid with the state of the game. Granted, town will change their reads when they get new information, so playing different is NAI, but scum will have developed strategies such as bussing teammate and pocketing town as the game unfolds.

Only the beginning of the game and early reads and statements feel like the most genuine way to find deepwolf scum

[Toogeloo]

So, honestly, I've been too busy this week to do reviews on anyone. The only thing I remember strongly was having you as a scum read early and feeling as though Vulture was in the PoE by mid to endgame.

[Toogeloo]

One of the things that makes me nervous about you Pav is how little you participated in the first few days and how much of the reins you have taken in the back few days.

Vulture being silent is just as bad for me though. Like, if I get shot maybe they just hope I shoot you since it was the last thing I said I would do.

[Toogeloo]

Town: Pav, Hockey, Luke
Lean town: Toog, Enchant
Null: Vulture
Lean scum: marci
Scum: Art
I think I forgot someone but I forgot who.

Does T3 town read all his partners? Something interesting about this is that earlier in T3's iso, is that he heavily cases and metadives Vulture, even indicating possible scum reads. Why is the slot listed null. I might need to go back and reread the whole interaction that goes from scum!vulture posts earlier to null: vulture.

If it's not Vulture, then T3 put every partner in a town read category.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, I'm moving soon, so I've been doing a lot of packing and house work to setup showing for my current home, and the market is ridiculous right now, so when I'm not working, I'm doing other things.
Plus my kids just started school, and I've had to do a lot of things for them.

I'm so ready for the calm to return.

[Toogeloo]

Lean Town
Hectic
Enchant

Nullish
Togg
Vulture
Hockey (^^)

Lean Scum
Pav (v v)
Marci
T3

Does Luke list two scum when Galron first gets the gun?

[Toogeloo]

I think I've convinced myself that I'm good with a Vulture shot.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, I'm fine with Vulture being shot. If Hectic truly fears I'm scum, he can shoot me, and then I'll shoot Vulture.

[Toogeloo]

I'm 100% on the don't shoot Pav train, and agree that if paranoia is a factor, shooting me first is fine.

[Toogeloo]

I'm just assuming Arc is writing a really good endgame flavor.

[Toogeloo]

GG.

Luke had me fooled most the game, but not enough that I was ever going to protect them like Hectic would for Pav. I feel like my midgame reads were my best reads, and I shouldn't have second guessed them.

I didn't put any effort into scum hunting (until the final day) and all my reads were based in gut. I wanted the gun just so I could test my gut shots lol.

[Toogeloo]

Not gonna lie. I poked around on the wiki and saw that Toog has a scary high win rate as scum and I was very nervous if Vulture flipped town.

I do have a crazy high scum win rate, most of which I survive to endgame. I like to think it's because most games people see me as obvtown and I skate under the radar until it's time to strike.

[Toogeloo]

But I should also point out...

I despise playing scum. It makes me physically nauseous when I lie to people in real life, and that translates over to the game as well. I lose sleep at night and get the shakes sometimes every time I play scum, no joke lol.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah. I think a much shorter deadline, 48-72 hours is better.

I like the thought of vengeful scum, but maybe just one, maybe two at most, member(s) of the scum team, and let them pick pre-game who that is. This allows scum to tactically bus each other and give them a chance to reset the Gunbearer to person they find favorable.

[Toogeloo]

I prefer 1 game at a time as well. I only play a couple hours a day at max, and not at all on Sundays generally. More than 1 game spreads me out too much.