mini normal 2226; who won


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Post Post #2719 (isolation #200) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Am I also supposed to be blindly guessing your target?
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Post Post #2728 (isolation #201) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 0, tris wrote:DkKoba
Gamma Emerald
Datisi
MathBlade
Aristeia
Titus
Lukewarm
ChaosOmega
Not_Mafia
Gamma and chaos both got results, so not them.

Koba has been cleared, and would not have been the night kill, so not him.

I would not have been surprised if you had jailed me after the lolhammer, but I doubt the scum team ever targets me after the lolhammer, and a kill stopped. So not me.

So : dats again, math, Ari, nm are the options imo.

Dats could have been the kill target again, trying to put smart you protecting one of the investigatives (and failing)

I really think nm is town, but also never getting shot. So taking him off again.

So my guess is either Ari or math.

Gth, it's math. Final answer
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Post Post #2780 (isolation #202) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Titus, if you have any questions for me, or want me to claim let me know.

But I feel like it is pretty hard for me to know where to go for the day before mass claim and before you talk about your night action.
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Post Post #2787 (isolation #203) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2786, Titus wrote:@Math and Luke, Both claim please.
I'm a vt
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Post Post #2790 (isolation #204) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:25 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Jesus. I am hoping that you are both scum trying to drown the thread, because it is increasingly frustrating that neither one of you appear to be willing to drop it just for the sake of thread health
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Post Post #2820 (isolation #205) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:56 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

So I guessed math, math guessed ari, and ari guessed me. Thats a fun loop
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Post Post #2824 (isolation #206) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Wait. I miss read. I saw my name in the post. I am wrong. ignore me lol
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Post Post #2845 (isolation #207) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:12 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2827, Titus wrote:
In post 2796, MathBlade wrote:And Datisi too. Don’t think he has claimed.
Datisi's conftown so he doesn't to.

Now here's the surprise...

I blocked....

Spoiler: result
No one


deliberately.
wat
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Post Post #2850 (isolation #208) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2847, Aristeia wrote:not killing at 9 is giving the town an extra elimination - it's really not a great thing to do if you're scum trying to
set someone up
because your max gain if it works is just to get you back to where you should've been in the first place on the kill cycle.

also I don't think a deliberate no kill by choice would've had moderator extending night deadline by a whole day
That last line requires us to assume that is the reason for the delay, and I don't really think that is a safe assumption...
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Post Post #2876 (isolation #209) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2873, Titus wrote:This no kill, to me, suggests that scum thought I would block them. This would clear them. They then claim a useless result.

That leads me to Chaos being scum.

That's not the most palatable theory as Chaos faking a guilty makes no sense.


The next option is scum guessed I would block offensively. If that's the case, why not shoot Gamma or Chaos?
What part of this logic points to chaos over gamma?

Chaos's result from last night was an inno on Gamma

Gamma's result was an inno on koba
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Post Post #2884 (isolation #210) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.
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Post Post #2890 (isolation #211) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2884, Lukewarm wrote:I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.
All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.

the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.

The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.
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Post Post #2894 (isolation #212) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:02 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Wait. Are you starting your models now, after the normally almost useless role just happened to muddle out a guilty night 1 AND after the jailkeeper landed a save AND after the scum team apparently chose to no kill?

Because, yeah. All of those things before you start looking at the win chances, should push the win in towns favor.
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Post Post #2901 (isolation #213) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:05 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2892, MathBlade wrote:
In post 2890, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2884, Lukewarm wrote:I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.
All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.

the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.

The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.
Cool again assume all town

Chaos checks Gamma votes Gamma. Gamma claims rolecop who checked Umlaut no result. Titus backs up Gamma. You get three conf town

Assume Titus doesn’t block Umlaut lock scum Gamma outs it.

Assume Gamma checks town.

Gamma outs the vanilla ans the vanilla is locktown

No matter how you slice it you get confirms.
Again, you are targeting the skills in a way that is useful.

Imagine chaos targeted anyone with no gun. He has no information from that result

Imagine titus targeted someone, and the kill went through. Did she target scum, and because it is loyal nothing happened? did she target town, but not the target of the night kill? who knows?
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Post Post #2912 (isolation #214) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:13 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am actually surprised that our investigative was not a pt cop. Given the setup info, that is what I was expecting.
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Post Post #2947 (isolation #215) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I don't really want to kill nm. The umlaut flubber stuff at the very beginning of the game is just so hard to see them as partners.
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Post Post #2963 (isolation #216) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:03 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Chaos's claimed role is super weak in my opinion. It has 1 player in the entire game it can inno, and 1 player in the entire game that it can guilty. And then 10 players that it gives a "fuck if I know" result.

It feels weird that I am somewhat doubtful of the claim because of how shitty it is, and also the fact that it still managed to land on both its inno and its guilty already, to then see you sitting there arguing that it is doubtful because the town is too powerful

Maybe I am just dense (and I am still not gonna take the time to run models lol)
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Post Post #2967 (isolation #217) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:05 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2953, Titus wrote:
In post 2947, Lukewarm wrote:I don't really want to kill nm. The umlaut flubber stuff at the very beginning of the game is just so hard to see them as partners.
Then who do you want to kill?
I am waffling between joining Math on the chaos wagon, or just voting math atm
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Post Post #2974 (isolation #218) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:07 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2966, DkKoba wrote:
In post 2963, Lukewarm wrote:Chaos's claimed role is super weak in my opinion. It has 1 player in the entire game it can inno, and 1 player in the entire game that it can guilty. And then 10 players that it gives a "fuck if I know" result.

It feels weird that I am somewhat doubtful of the claim because of how shitty it is, and also the fact that it still managed to land on both its inno and its guilty already, to then see you sitting there arguing that it is doubtful because the town is too powerful

Maybe I am just dense (and I am still not gonna take the time to run models lol)
since you're sitting in poe - how do you feel about ari/math scum team?
That would be strictly a poe solve for me. I town read ari like the entire game :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #2989 (isolation #219) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

It is after 2 am, so I am off to bed. Maybe sleeping on it will help me decide :/
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Post Post #2995 (isolation #220) » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2990, Aristeia wrote:if you're town why can't you just be wrong and NM forgot to put in his kill order at night?

who do you think would decide to "nokill" to frame cowman?
I think that the titus theory is that the nokill was to actually chaos hoping to get a false inno on himself?

Which has nothing to do with our resident miltank
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Post Post #3061 (isolation #221) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:12 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3000, Titus wrote:
In post 2995, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2990, Aristeia wrote:if you're town why can't you just be wrong and NM forgot to put in his kill order at night?

who do you think would decide to "nokill" to frame cowman?
I think that the titus theory is that the nokill was to actually chaos hoping to get a false inno on himself?

Which has nothing to do with our resident miltank
Yes.

Scum cannot multitask either. So the no kill could come from needing to use their PR.

That suggests Gamma but Gamma can't be scum without Chaos sooo
Did not even think about the multitask thing.

Both chaos and gamma said they would have results today, so if it is 1 scum + 1 traitor at this point, they would have to no kill to get a result

Why are we so sure that this game has a traitor again? I thought it was originally so there was room for a town neighbor, but no one claimed town neighbor, so couldn't there just still be 3 group scum?
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Post Post #3080 (isolation #222) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Dats, are you claiming a PR?
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Post Post #3081 (isolation #223) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Or are you just making a hypothetical to make math do more math? lol
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Post Post #3085 (isolation #224) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:30 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3083, Datisi wrote:
In post 3080, Lukewarm wrote:Dats, are you claiming a PR?
yeah. wasn't too off the mark. i'm a traffic analyst.
I don't know how that role works. Do you have results?
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Post Post #3086 (isolation #225) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh. its a pt cop. Which I was expecting lol
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Post Post #3092 (isolation #226) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:35 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Your night 1 result should be a clear right?
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Post Post #3094 (isolation #227) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:36 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh
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Post Post #3098 (isolation #228) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

So all 3 of our investigatives happened to target umlaut night 1?
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Post Post #3122 (isolation #229) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3118, Gamma Emerald wrote:atp I think I need to fullclaim in order to ensure the setup spec goes right, I'm really just 2 shot vs. odd night
Why did you holster night 2?
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Post Post #3145 (isolation #230) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:15 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:
Datisi
Not_Mafia
, is your claim real?
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Post Post #3146 (isolation #231) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:17 am

Post by Lukewarm »

This game feels like it turned into "Setup Spec, The Mafia Game"
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Post Post #3154 (isolation #232) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:22 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3152, Gamma Emerald wrote:ngl part of me thinks NM is telling the truth
I, kinda felt the same way :/
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Post Post #3164 (isolation #233) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:36 am

Post by Lukewarm »

VOTE: chaos

Traffic analysts make more sense to me then a gunsmith, given then set up info.

And, I have been scum reading chaos all game, and only tabled it because of the claim, and now there are too many claims.

And, like math said, even a town flip would confirm a lot of people

Plus his ability is functionally useless, so we are not actually losing a functioning pr this way.
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Post Post #3190 (isolation #234) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3187, Titus wrote:Part of me says we leave NM alive, and have it known I am not blocking him. Scum don't have a blocker. We force him to check Ari or Luke, whichever we don't eliminate.

If we flip town or traitor then

If NM gets an inno result, we eliminate him to confirm his target isn't main scum.
If NM gets a guilty, we get a 1 v 1.

If we eliminate main scum, we go back to him being useless and sort out the PR noise.
I am unsure I follow.

If we are in a maf doc + maf neighbor + traito neighbor, then wouldn't all results from nm and dats be useless.

If he gets a guilty, then yeah, that theory is wrong, and we just have 3 group scum, but I am not sure where you are headed if he gets an inno?
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Post Post #3191 (isolation #235) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I also don't think that ari is scum, so if the poe is landing on it being one of me or ari, it feels like your poe it broken >.<
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Post Post #3198 (isolation #236) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:20 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3196, Datisi wrote:i think i'm definitely not buying all 5 prs against a scumteam like the one that would have to be real if all of us are telling the truth.

i'm town, gamma cannot be scum without omega anyway, and titus would (1) have to be a blocker (which itself would make omega +++scum since according to him, the last remaining scum doesn't have a gun so what the fuck is scum!titus in town!omega world) and (2) she's literally throwing by those night actions if scum.

i think the play here is yeet one of n_m/omega, then yeet the other one if the first one is green. thoughts?
This is basically the thought process behind my vote.

And between the 2, chaos seems more likely to be scum then nm
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Post Post #3226 (isolation #237) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:06 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Maths recent stances have me confused...

Math, where was dats resisting the chaos wagon?

Last I saw, he said "we should elim chaos or notmafia"
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Post Post #3271 (isolation #238) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

The more math posts, the less comfortable I am following him...

UNVOTE:

I am at the beach right now, and need to look over everything again tonight x x
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Post Post #3300 (isolation #239) » Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1296, MathBlade wrote:That reads one of two things neither of which are protown to share yet. Regardless I think a scum in Chaos, Datisi, Gamma, and Titus is quite high regardless of which explanation I go down.

Premise A: (Secret premise)
If Premise A is true then scum likely think Premise A is true and therefore would vote Umlaut.
If Premise A is not true then scum likely think they may get a free elim by hopping on without discussion like everyone else.
Math, did you ever explain what this secret premise was?
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Post Post #3327 (isolation #240) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Math these last few pages feels like scum who is mad at a townsided set up, and then felt like he was in auto lose and is madly trying to widen the elim pool - see his interactions with Dats.

So I think that the team is either Math-Not_Mafia Or Chaos-Koba

Koba is never shot before chaos, so I am down for any of [math, Not_Mafia, chaos]

Titus, I would like to kill chaos, because he was been my top scum read all game x.x

But, if you would prefer one of the others, you can count yourself as a double voter with my vote
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Post Post #3333 (isolation #241) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:12 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3332, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3331, Datisi wrote:
In post 3329, MathBlade wrote:Correct. Not Mafia cannot fire on the same night as everyone else so the odds of an unmitigated guilty become a lot less.
???

loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + n1 firing traffic analyst = overpowered town

loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + even-night traffic analyst = fair and balanced?
Fixed it for you.

I have known you were going to claim PT related role for a long time. Just because I don’t say it doesn’t mean I don’t factor it into my decision
What made you think that dats was a pt pr?

And what made you think that he was not something like, even night, which would have made it the same as the bottom row?
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Post Post #3356 (isolation #242) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:43 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3352, ChaosOmega wrote:Unless there's 3 scum left (which would be absurd), we wouldn't be in danger of losing with 2 mislims, so you'd get the conf towns from me dying still. And if I'm limmed first, you're still limming in the PoE next, this is just flipping the order. But I've thought Luke is scum since day 1, I'd like to at least have a chance to lim another scum before I'm limmed for your not actually auto autowin.
I am pretty sure that the proposed plan was "kill you, if you are town kill the poe (which includes me)"

So, I actually think on a town you flip, I die immediately after anyways?

So, from my pov, this just looks like trying to sneak in an extra miselim before you die, and we change our thinking on the whole situation :dead:
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Post Post #3360 (isolation #243) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3357, Datisi wrote:
In post 3356, Lukewarm wrote:So, I actually think on a town you flip, I die immediately after anyways?
actually no, on a town!chaos flip we're yeeting n_m because i do not believe in 5 power roles here

i am going to look extremely stupid if then they both flip green, but if the setup was designed to have the power roles murdering each other, then there's not much we can do
That is your plan. Not Math's

And Chaos was engaging with math, and asking if math's plan would still work flipping me first.
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Post Post #3361 (isolation #244) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3358, ChaosOmega wrote:I'm settled as the lim for today it looks like. If you flip scum, that means that if you think I'm scum,
I don't really include what would happen if I would flip scum in my "from my pov" analysis lol
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Post Post #3373 (isolation #245) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3357, Datisi wrote:
In post 3356, Lukewarm wrote:So, I actually think on a town you flip, I die immediately after anyways?
actually no, on a town!chaos flip we're yeeting n_m because i do not believe in 5 power roles here

i am going to look extremely stupid if then they both flip green, but if the setup was designed to have the power roles murdering each other, then there's not much we can do
I see what you are saying, but Mastina has definitely approved 5 prs in a 13 player set up before. And I am talking

Town Friendly Neighbor
Town Roleblocker
Town Jailkeeper
Town Odd Night Vanilla Cop
Town Doctor
5 Vanilla townies

Vs

3 Mafia goons


Which...............

And then in the post game, she said that having 5 prs instead of 4 was BETTER FOR THE SCUM TEAM... specifically because having 5 prs meant that town was more likely to doubt them
In post 5528, mastina wrote:This game could probably have lost the odd-night vanilla cop, but ironically I feel like that'd have made the game MORE townsided, by virtue of "town needs all of these PRs to be real, or else the game's scumsided". (3-4 power roles is the standard, so having exactly 4 would mean it'd be unlikely any would be doubted.)
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Post Post #3421 (isolation #246) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3418, Not_Mafia wrote:Who did I miss?
Me :oops: :oops:
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Post Post #3423 (isolation #247) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3417, Not_Mafia wrote: Math is just posting the ramblings of a madman, looks like something someone would write on the walls of a dungeon in their own blood
Favorite line of the game
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Post Post #3424 (isolation #248) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:29 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3422, Not_Mafia wrote:I don't know what to say about you to be honest, sorry Luke
Damn, and you sete up for this and everything by asking who you were missing :/
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Post Post #3432 (isolation #249) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I think that my elim priority atm is : Chaos>Math>Not_Mafia
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Post Post #3434 (isolation #250) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:00 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
In post 3128, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
In post 3134, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3130, Datisi wrote:@n_m
In post 3106, Datisi wrote:and yes, i'm not gambiting for shits. ask koba what happened last time i did that.
You're a full, ungated Traffic Analyst?
In post 3433, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3432, Lukewarm wrote:I think that my elim priority atm is : Chaos>Math>Not_Mafia
Interesting. Do you think I am bussing Chaos?
No?

That was my elim preference for the day. Not like, we just keep going for the next 3 days
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Post Post #3435 (isolation #251) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:01 am

Post by Lukewarm »

That was only supposed to have the bottom quote.

Q+ strikes again :/
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Post Post #3460 (isolation #252) » Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I thought you had notmafia in your town block koba?

Did that change? If so, why?
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Post Post #3470 (isolation #253) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:30 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3469, DkKoba wrote:im gay
same
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Post Post #3472 (isolation #254) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Titus who do you want to kill?
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Post Post #3476 (isolation #255) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:39 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3475, Datisi wrote:loyal jk + ta + even-night ta could maybe work if all 3 scum are goons but it's such a meme setup i don't think it's a
T
hing

i wanted to say "what if it's some meme solve like ari/luke" but i don't think luke goes like "uhm datisi look all 5 power roles could be town" if he was scum and none of the power roles could be town
Datisi has dropped a crumb. Something to do with a T?

Could he be claiming Tracker here?

/s
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Post Post #3478 (isolation #256) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Maybe I am reading too much into this, but I think I just caught scum??!??
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Post Post #3485 (isolation #257) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

It feels like the only reason to kill not mafia is the fact that his claim contradicts datisi's.

Everything else makes me think he is town. The early day 1 umlaut v flubber. Basically everything Prism posted. Not_Mafia's own posts, like the way he built up to counter claiming Datisi
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Post Post #3486 (isolation #258) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
In post 3128, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
In post 3134, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3130, Datisi wrote:@n_m
In post 3106, Datisi wrote:and yes, i'm not gambiting for shits. ask koba what happened last time i did that.
You're a full, ungated Traffic Analyst?
Like, this looks like the build up of him being surprised to see dats claim to me
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Post Post #3487 (isolation #259) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I don't know that he is the worst yeet option for the day, but he feels worse then both chaos and math to me :/
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Post Post #3492 (isolation #260) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:34 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3489, ChaosOmega wrote:
In post 3485, Lukewarm wrote:It feels like the only reason to kill not mafia is the fact that his claim contradicts datisi's.

Everything else makes me think he is town. The early day 1 umlaut v flubber. Basically everything Prism posted. Not_Mafia's own posts, like the way he built up to counter claiming Datisi
But he's in one of your top two solves?
In post 3327, Lukewarm wrote:Math these last few pages feels like scum who is mad at a townsided set up, and then felt like he was in auto lose and is madly trying to widen the elim pool - see his interactions with Dats.

So I think that the team is either Math-Not_Mafia Or Chaos-Koba

Koba is never shot before chaos, so I am down for any of [math, Not_Mafia, chaos]
These 2 posts don't jive to me.
I think that a scum math flip would give more weight to the not_mafia scum. But that feels like it means that math goes first.
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Post Post #3497 (isolation #261) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:49 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3496, ChaosOmega wrote:
In post 3492, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 3489, ChaosOmega wrote:
In post 3485, Lukewarm wrote:It feels like the only reason to kill not mafia is the fact that his claim contradicts datisi's.

Everything else makes me think he is town. The early day 1 umlaut v flubber. Basically everything Prism posted. Not_Mafia's own posts, like the way he built up to counter claiming Datisi
But he's in one of your top two solves?
In post 3327, Lukewarm wrote:Math these last few pages feels like scum who is mad at a townsided set up, and then felt like he was in auto lose and is madly trying to widen the elim pool - see his interactions with Dats.

So I think that the team is either Math-Not_Mafia Or Chaos-Koba

Koba is never shot before chaos, so I am down for any of [math, Not_Mafia, chaos]
These 2 posts don't jive to me.
I think that a scum math flip would give more weight to the not_mafia scum. But that feels like it means that math goes first.
Is the reverse true? If so, why not lim N_M first? If not, why?
Not really.

Like I said, the nm slot so far has a lot of things to make me think it is town. The only thing that makes me doubt it so far is

1)the cross claim with dars, and
2)the possibility that he could be partners with a scum!math.

Math could be partners with other people. Like, the "all these prs are telling the truth" poe leave math sitting out with Ari (or from other peoples perspective me).

Killing not_mafia first feels like killing based off of pre-flip associations, and so we should kill the slot that is independently more scummy before we then partner hunt for that slot that is as of yet unflipped.
------

It kind of feels like not_Mafia would also give us the least info on a town flip.

A town math flip semi-clears the suspicion on NM

A town you flip, clears half of the pr claims

A town NM flip does nothing it feels?
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Post Post #3498 (isolation #262) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3497, Lukewarm wrote:dars
Please don't hate me datisi
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Post Post #3499 (isolation #263) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:51 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I won't like, stand in the way of a nm flip. But it feels both least likely to flip scum of the 3 and feels like it gives us the least info if it flips town :/
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Post Post #3506 (isolation #264) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:34 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I'm waffling on who I should vote. And am heavily torn between math and chaos....

@Titus, if you say something like "I see your earlier posts, but I still think you should vote NM" I will, but I am waiting to make sure you think about what I said before we go through with a nm elim :/
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Post Post #3513 (isolation #265) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:42 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3507, Titus wrote:
In post 3506, Lukewarm wrote:I'm waffling on who I should vote. And am heavily torn between math and chaos....

@Titus, if you say something like "I see your earlier posts, but I still think you should vote NM" I will, but I am waiting to make sure you think about what I said before we go through with a nm elim :/
Which earlier posts?

I am also waffling onto eliminating MathBlade. He can’t be around in elo and I have been wrong on him lately. I doubt this is MathBlade scum but I am not sure who is.
These:

Spoiler:
In post 3485, Lukewarm wrote:It feels like the only reason to kill not mafia is the fact that his claim contradicts datisi's.

Everything else makes me think he is town. The early day 1 umlaut v flubber. Basically everything Prism posted. Not_Mafia's own posts, like the way he built up to counter claiming Datisi
In post 3486, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
In post 3128, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
In post 3134, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3130, Datisi wrote:@n_m
In post 3106, Datisi wrote:and yes, i'm not gambiting for shits. ask koba what happened last time i did that.
You're a full, ungated Traffic Analyst?
Like, this looks like the build up of him being surprised to see dats claim to me
In post 3487, Lukewarm wrote:I don't know that he is the worst yeet option for the day, but he feels worse then both chaos and math to me :/
In post 3497, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 3496, ChaosOmega wrote:
In post 3492, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 3489, ChaosOmega wrote:
In post 3485, Lukewarm wrote:It feels like the only reason to kill not mafia is the fact that his claim contradicts datisi's.

Everything else makes me think he is town. The early day 1 umlaut v flubber. Basically everything Prism posted. Not_Mafia's own posts, like the way he built up to counter claiming Datisi
But he's in one of your top two solves?
In post 3327, Lukewarm wrote:Math these last few pages feels like scum who is mad at a townsided set up, and then felt like he was in auto lose and is madly trying to widen the elim pool - see his interactions with Dats.

So I think that the team is either Math-Not_Mafia Or Chaos-Koba

Koba is never shot before chaos, so I am down for any of [math, Not_Mafia, chaos]
These 2 posts don't jive to me.
I think that a scum math flip would give more weight to the not_mafia scum. But that feels like it means that math goes first.
Is the reverse true? If so, why not lim N_M first? If not, why?
Not really.

Like I said, the nm slot so far has a lot of things to make me think it is town. The only thing that makes me doubt it so far is

1)the cross claim with dars, and
2)the possibility that he could be partners with a scum!math.

Math could be partners with other people. Like, the "all these prs are telling the truth" poe leave math sitting out with Ari (or from other peoples perspective me).

Killing not_mafia first feels like killing based off of pre-flip associations, and so we should kill the slot that is independently more scummy before we then partner hunt for that slot that is as of yet unflipped.
------

It kind of feels like not_Mafia would also give us the least info on a town flip.

A town math flip semi-clears the suspicion on NM

A town you flip, clears half of the pr claims

A town NM flip does nothing it feels?
In post 3499, Lukewarm wrote:I won't like, stand in the way of a nm flip. But it feels both least likely to flip scum of the 3 and feels like it gives us the least info if it flips town :/
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Post Post #3620 (isolation #266) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Titus, you have completely lost me. But I think Math is a decent elim, if we are not going chaos.
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Post Post #3624 (isolation #267) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Having nm target chaos works for me too. imo, the TA have a decent chance of being useless atm, so there is no bad targets. If you see a world where that might come back with a red result, there is likely no harm it going for it.
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Post Post #3695 (isolation #268) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Math, I don't think you running through the scenarios is helping anything anymore
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Post Post #3698 (isolation #269) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I feel like I am at

Yeet Chaos. If red, yeet koba. If green, yeet Math.

OR

Yeet Math. If red, yeet NM. If green yeet chaos

I guess Dat's yeet flow chart works too, bet feels worse to me because of the 3 choices, NM feels the most likely to flip town
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Post Post #3709 (isolation #270) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@Math

Jailkeeper does not have a gun
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Post Post #3712 (isolation #271) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In Normal games on mafiascum.net, a Gunsmith gets guilties on all Mafia (except Traitors and Doctors), Cops, Vigilantes, Gunsmiths, Role Cops, Vanilla Cops, PT Cops, Vengefuls, Detectives, Neapolitans, Backups of roles with guns and JoATs that have any of these listed powers.
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Post Post #3716 (isolation #272) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3713, DkKoba wrote:as much as i was "team scum titus" last dayphase - that combined with the lack of kills 2 times in a row is just silly in a scum titus world.
I don't think that they are currently arguing that Titus is scum. They are going over theoretical number of inno/guilty results
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Post Post #3721 (isolation #273) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:58 am

Post by Lukewarm »

omg. it just keeps going
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Post Post #3727 (isolation #274) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:00 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

If all prs are town, this is a very town sided set up. We get it.

We also understand that there are convoluted ways for the scum to still win AND that mastina has made very town sided set ups before.

The current discussions don't feel like they help us win, and are better suited for yelling at Mastina in the post game.
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Post Post #3730 (isolation #275) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I don't think that there is anyone in here who does not understand both points being made
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Post Post #3755 (isolation #276) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

If all of the prs are real, then that means that the scum team is exactly math+ari, and this has just all been theatre....

That does not feel right.

So, I really think that Chaos is scum here. Maybe Not_Mafia. But one of them has to be, right?
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Post Post #3765 (isolation #277) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3761, DkKoba wrote:
In post 3755, Lukewarm wrote:If all of the prs are real, then that means that the scum team is exactly math+ari, and this has just all been theatre....

That does not feel right.

So, I really think that Chaos is scum here. Maybe Not_Mafia. But one of them has to be, right?
ok but ignoring mechs - why is chaos scum?

I have been scum reading chaos since day 1. I can pull up all of the cases, but like his entire iso feels scummy to me.

The only thing that I have seen you (or anyone really) say that makes him town was his empty vote on umlaut day 1.
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Post Post #3772 (isolation #278) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3766, DkKoba wrote:fam thats just chaos' playstyle.

yall just can't read some people by default and ya dont wanna admit it when someone comes in and says you gotta look at everything as a whole

here's an exercise: look for reasons why chaos is town with a bias assuming they are conftown.


i think you will find a change of heart.
It is just his playstyle to give out very little reads day 1?

Or for him to base his read on someone else (me) seemingly entirely around whether or not I scum read him?

Because my interactions with him early on were very much:

I vote him, and explain why.
He omgus votes me, and calls me scum.

I move my vote away from him.
He unvotes me, and vaguely says that I would not do that as scum.

I vote him again the next day.
He is back to calling me scum

That feels wrong to me.
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Post Post #3773 (isolation #279) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3769, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3767, DkKoba wrote:in essence- the play is way too complex for scum. scum only look at the next step in most cases.

it takes a leap of faith for chaos to do what they are doing.

i'll consider them in limlo *only* if math were to flip scum but im definitely not seeing them as scum here at all.
If you’re not seeing me as scum why are you pushing me as scum?
In post 3770, MathBlade wrote:Koba scum slip?
Chaos Koba?
This, uh.....

Makes me want to vote for math...
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Post Post #3776 (isolation #280) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:36 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3775, DkKoba wrote:i make adlibs all the time as either alignment - you're not slick.
He did not even latch on to the part that you needed corrected. He just did not look at what the pronouns were referring to
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Post Post #3778 (isolation #281) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:39 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3767, DkKoba wrote:in essence- the play is way too complex for scum. scum only look at the next step in most cases.

it takes a leap of faith for chaos to do what they are doing.

i'll consider
them
Chaos
in limlo *only* if math were to flip scum but im definitely not seeing
them
Chaos
as scum here at all.

And Math jumped to calling it a slip, by linking the second "them" back to himself, instead of the fact that both "them"'s in the sentence referred to Chaos
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Post Post #3784 (isolation #282) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:51 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

NM, confirm you are gonna check chaos, and you get to live the day.

That means a Math elim. Thoughts?
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Post Post #3786 (isolation #283) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:53 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

VOTE: math
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Post Post #3800 (isolation #284) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3797, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3790, Gamma Emerald wrote:uhhhh my vote was hammer.
How dare you take my hammer
That is two hammers you have missed this game. Youre slacking. smh
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Post Post #3819 (isolation #285) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:53 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 165, Seanzie wrote:
In post 163, Aristeia wrote:Does anyone think Flubber is townie?
I could do a trustfall without much trouble, but I wouldn't call them townie. I don't think hammering early is a good idea though.
Was this really traitor Seanzie trying to tell scum flubber that they were the traitor? :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #3822 (isolation #286) » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 254, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 165, Seanzie wrote:I could do a trustfall without much trouble, but I wouldn't call them townie.
What does this mean?

You would trust fall with someone that you would not call townie?
I am realizing that I asked them about it, but they never responded. That trust fall post was their last post before the replace
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Post Post #3862 (isolation #287) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I am pretty sure it is just Not_Mafia.

Chaos put Not_Mafia at e-1 with post

Math was on, and posting (, 3491, 3495, 3503) but did not hammer. I am pretty sure that if Math's partner was anyone other then Not_Mafia, he would have just hammered, right?

(Not_Mafia stopped being at e-1 with 3516)


VOTE: Not_Mafia
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Post Post #3863 (isolation #288) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3859, Datisi wrote:did i hallucinate gamma being mechcleared or?
Chaos mech cleared gamma.

Chaos claimed informed that only 1 scum had a gun. Umlaut had the only scum gun. Chaos confirmed that Gamma had a gun.

So, Gamma was mech cleared unless chaos was also scum.
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Post Post #3866 (isolation #289) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:10 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3838, DkKoba wrote:datisi more clear than the mech clear woa
Says the person who then put the mech clear gamma in the kill list, but not the person who mech cleared him :cool:
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Post Post #3876 (isolation #290) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:51 am

Post by Lukewarm »

This may be the worst game I ever played. Like my performance.

I have neve4 accidentally hammered before in my life. But I did it twice this game :dead:
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Post Post #3880 (isolation #291) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:59 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3879, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 3875, Datisi wrote:oh wait this game is over

well good thing i didn't write out this one post i had in mind where i was gonna say that n_m is Town, Actually and that we should yeet someone else today :facepalm:
God damn quickhammers
Youre welcome <3
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Post Post #3888 (isolation #292) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 36, tris wrote:umlaut wagon has exactly the four town prs.
Nice
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Post Post #3903 (isolation #293) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

This set up felt very town sided. 3 night one investigates and a loyal jailkeeper vs essentially a scum team with a traitor does not look good

I think that the scum team over all did very good (minus the failed NK :dead:). Like, across all of the replacements.

Umlaut and Flubber did a great job of looking like they could never be partners. Prism really towned it up. Not_Mafia made it to the Koba town block. And Math was amazing.
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Post Post #3904 (isolation #294) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:39 am

Post by Lukewarm »

gg all

And thanks Tris and ythan for modding :)
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Post Post #3953 (isolation #295) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3911, Prism wrote:You can find my thought process/approach Day 1 documented almost in full for anyone curious, and I think some of the strategy will be novel to the players I was most interacting with-Lukewarm
I would like to see it :good:
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Post Post #3954 (isolation #296) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:40 am

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In post 3932, Prism wrote:A bit of time was spent on keeping Vulture out of the game entirely, and everything Lukewarm picked up on with me was intentional but he was NOT meant to connect it that early and I was deeply impressed. It was really meant to be a slow burn.
I felt like your interactions with me were weird, and distinctly different from the way we interacted in our last game. But I could not figure out a scum motivation for those differences. So I did not actually end up scum reading you for them :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #3955 (isolation #297) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:42 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3933, MathBlade wrote:Ari's not pooky lol I don't know why people say this. I know who it is but she's not pooky lol
I have a distinct not-pooky guess as well.

I thought they were pooky like day 1, but changed my mind later
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Post Post #3958 (isolation #298) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Subject: mini normal 2226; prism notes
Prism wrote:God though Lukewarm is so talented it's ridiculous. That (Town Prism ISOs Lukewarm, scum Prism doesn't) is exactly what I wanted in my dreams, I dropped the line about petapan with MathBlade to emphasize the ISOs/get him+Ydrasse chewing on differences but I expected it to go either wasted or have to drop more hints when I could. Absolutely did not expect him to get to the point I wanted so fast. I was expecting just a townlean for the push.
:oops: :oops: :oops:

Turns out I am so talented that I can find the exact misdirect that the scum is trying to point me toward lol /joke

but for real. I feel like this was not a good showing for me. I have had much better games. I feel bad actually, because I really did let myself get very overgamed, and I think that hurt me. (I normally do 2 games simultaneously, but managed to get up to 4 games at one point while this game was happening :dead: :dead: )
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Post Post #3959 (isolation #299) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I'm reading through your notes now
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Post Post #3961 (isolation #300) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:04 am

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In post 3960, Prism wrote:Another big boon for the scumteam was Koba deciding I would be too easy to read as a level one emotional player. Given that I was outclassed & lacking in more nuanced touches they were a good sport in choosing not to read into my play at all except to comment postgame, despite knowing immediately they could have pinned me either way had they chosen to.
I rolled my eyes a bit at that post lol
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Post Post #3962 (isolation #301) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Looking at the plans you have as scum makes me realize how much more I can improve on as scum.

As of now I have 2 scum games, and I feel like I did pretty good in both, but nothing like what you laid out in your notes
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Post Post #3972 (isolation #302) » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:05 pm

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Thank you for acknowledging the issues mastina. Everyone makes mistakes, and hopefully this just means you have a better idea of some of the power that you missed this time moving forward
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Post Post #3984 (isolation #303) » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 3983, Prism wrote:First, I want to touch on the Chaos tunnel. You’ve started playing at a time when hyperposting & emotional play is put at a premium. It’s not impossible for more reserved players to be town but it’s generally viewed as less likely. Chaos is a very old-school player that doesn’t fit cleanly into this meta, and I think focusing more on progressions & the guilty would have gone a long way.
This is fair.

Although, it was not exactly that he was not posting that resulted in me tunneling. I actually think it was the immediate omgus that kind of locked me in :dead: :dead: :dead:

I don't just tunnel everyone who is low content. My initial scum read was more that even in the posts he was making, there were very few stances being taken. Which was enough for him to be my new area of focus after Ari towned it up. But the immediate omgus felt more like scum who needed to discredit me as opposed to town looking to see if my suspicions were genuine.

But yes. I very much did get caught in that tunnel even when there was evidence pointing me the other way :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #4003 (isolation #304) » Wed Sep 08, 2021 4:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 4002, T3 wrote:i had terrible reads but at least i baited the nightkill :igmeou: :P
I mean, a VT has like 3 jobs: get town read, get night killed, and scum hunt.

You did an amazing job at 2 of those.

You were one of the most widely town read players day 1, and then you were the night 1 kill.

Who cares if your day 1 reads were not great (they were day 1 reads). You did great this game

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