mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[mastina]

Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes. T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes. Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.

They're not at risk because they've killed the people who were suspecting them by voting them off.

Pretty sure this is a fallacy. I don't remember which, might be some form of circular logic? But I'm pretty sure this doesn't work as an argument because it doesn't explain the actions that have happened, building a narrative that builds off itself without intersection with the actual facts of the game.

If you can't see the incentive for the scum to kill the people who are suspecting them and leaving townies alive who suspect other townies then you frankly don't know how to play mafia as scum.

Oh I can see the incentive for scum to

kill

people who suspect them.

But Titus wasn't KILLED.

She was

eliminated

.

The incentive/logical train for scum to HOPE for a plurality elimination on Titus that they ALL dogpiled onto?

Now THAT is something I can't really see the incentive behind scum doing.

[mastina]

the goal of the scum is to vote out townies who suspect them

Is it?

The goal of scum is to not get voted out and to vote out town, sure.

But most scum I know don't dogpile onto one town player in order to remove a town player suspicious of them.

Scum usually avoid voting together and scum and scum usually aren't going to take a 1v1 that they have a 50% chance of losing, especially if even if they win they then lose the next day.

I realize it's not

impossible

--Norwee DID try to 1v1 me in Open Draft Mafia when he was scum there. (Tho critically, that did not work for him.) But for your theory to be true for this game, it'd have to have not JUST been Norwee opting into this strategy; it'd have to be the entire scumteam doing so. And each member you add to being onboard with that strategy increases the unlikelihood of it being something that'd happen.

That, aside from how when I've been catching whiffs of that area of the game it doesn't even look like a coordinated assault.

Admittedly, I've not had the chance to read all the pages in context. But I DO have to call it as I see it. And as I see it, the narrative you're weaving is a narrative. It requires the scumteam to make very very specific actions that while they are

possible

from the scum players in question, require a very very very specific chain of

possible

action after

possible

action after POSSIBLE action, ignoring the probable actions, the simpler actions, the actions that fit better, etc.

Your narrative is never impossible. I will give you that. Nothing in it cannot be true. But everything you're trying to sell requires one specific unlikely improbable chain of events one after another to have happened where we live in what amounts to a one in a thousand universe where every stretch of an action happened to have been the one taken.

[mastina]

The world NorwegianBoy is selling you is that I'm scum with RCE/Datisi and both of my scum partners have decided to ghost the game and stop playing while I am the lone scum still talking.

Do you really think a scum team at Elo that has skated through and is on the verge of winning would look like that?

Yes?

Why wouldn't they? If they weren't high-effort pre-lylo, why would most of them be efforting IN lylo?

It doesn't require rocket science for the game to have low-effort scum that mostly did nothing until lylo and mostly continue to do nothing in lylo. That's not some occam's razor violation requiring a complex gamestate. That's literally 70-90% of games onsite right now in the meta. Most scum players just don't give a shit. They get away with not giving a shit in the earlygame because often the town self-destructs to some extent and vote out town and suspect other town. But they continue to not give a shit after the town begins to get their shit together.

That's not some stretch of me to think it the case this game. That's not something which would be highly unique to this game. That's literally the state of mafiascum players who're mafia. They do almost nothing, towns suspect town early on, and then either the town self-destructs and hand the scum a win, or the town gets their shit together and eliminate the scum. This game being that? Not some anomaly. Not a statistical weirdness. Not some form of weird thing that is a freak occurrence. It'd literally be just another mafiascum game with that trend.

You know what WOULD be an anomaly?

If all three of the slots with the highest activity in the game, if the three slots with the highest post count, ALL were scum.

When was the last time you saw a game where literally the top three posters were ALL scum?

When was the last time you saw a game where the three slots that have contributed the most to the game, have efforted the hardest, have been the most active, most involved, were ALL scum?

It's happened before in mafiascum's history I'm sure--but it is very very very very very rare.

And you're asking me to believe in what amounts to a statistical anomaly. In what amounts to a freak occurrence. In a scumteam randomly for no real reason who could get by on coasting to an easy victory as town destroyed itself, deciding to actively force the town loss quickly.

So to answer which story feels more real?

The one backed by the evidence I see and which fits with the site meta.
Rather than the one which requires possibility after possibility after possibility which isn't in the site meta at all.

[mastina]

What am I supposed to do Mastina?

Use logic that is based in facts and probabilities rather than a narrative that relies on possibility after possibility and address the questions/points I'm raising, is all I can really offer.

Because I've explored multiple angles. I see multiple reasons why the Norwee-T3-Dwlee scumteam looks unlikely and I see multiple reasons why the Aristeia-RCE scumteam isn't unlikely. But all I see from you is restating the same things in different ways/words in spite of me bringing up new point after new point, with your counters to the new points I bring up basically relying on you restating/reiterating your already established argument, relying entirely on the original argument.

[mastina]

all it requires is for him to have pocketed you - which he did by insisting over and over again that you were locktown town.

You keep saying this, and yet this takes facts from D3 that Norwee would have no way of knowing prior to D3.

That aside from the fact that Norwee locktowning me has absolutely 0% to do with my read on his slot.

I can tell you right now any argument that relies on "Norwee pocketed you by locktowning you" is instantly not going to be convincing to me because I give zero fucks about Norwee townreading me. The fact that RCE townreads me but ISN'T someone that has pocketed me should be proof enough of that. Norwee is someone who looks unlikely to be scum for a plethora of things--all of which came prior to D3 and were entirely unrelated to me.

Nothing Norwee has done or said in relationship to me, in regards to me, has effected my read on him at all--if you think it has, sorry to say, you're wrong and any argument you attempt to make to that effect WILL fall on deaf ears as I know it to not be true.

It's entirely Norwee's content

unrelated

to me that I see as unlikely to be scum. And that content was not aimed at me at all.

[mastina]

I haven't slept much because of this game and I need to get some things done today.

Speaking of sleep: I was planning on logging in here and getting recaught up and going to bed. I logged in at like 4, 5 am to try that and technically didn't finish. (I started with 1/2 tabs open for this game. That's doubled/tripled to 4-6 tabs...) It's now 9 am.

I need sleep myself.

I do remain open, but a lot of your defense still feels like a form of AtE that involves building/maintainging/weaving a specific narrative that the majority of facts do not support, relying on the few facts which could support it and on the opinion of two/three dead town players which doesn't take into account the other dead town players.

After all, why doesn't Bingle or Momrangal or Flea the Magician also deserve a chance for their reads to be considered?

It feels like fitting the facts to the narrative rather than fitting the narrative to the facts to me. It also feels like it requires facts we know only from after D3 has played out for decisions made prior to D3, something scum could fundamentally not have had because it was in fact not D3 when they made those decisions. Basically using PRESENT actions/knowledge to justify PAST actions/knowledge that scum could not have had at the time of making those past actions.

[mastina]

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to sqump. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-09-08 13:20:00)

Okay so it is Monday 9:15 am for me right now and this is 50 hours away: two days away plus two hours.

So that places deadline on Wednesday, circa 11:20ish AM for me.

I'm worried about scum cheesing a plurality elimination through at deadline, so I need to cast a vote before the 24 hour deadline mark to be cautious.

Which means that my vote deadline is circa Tuesday, 11:20 AM.

Given that I shouldn't stay up that late/early, a more realistic deadline is Tuesday circa 6 am give or take an hour.

Which is in a little less than 24 hours, is about 20.45 hours by my math.

So setting a loose approximate deadline for me to vote:
(expired on 2021-09-07 08:18:14)

Will need to do that.
But for now: bed.

[Datisi]

@norwee, can you stop pretending like i'm confirmed scum fypov when you have zero reason to do so, thanks

ironically it makes me think you're town more bc i'm not sure if scum!you would be antagonizing me here right now with otherwise no gain (since t3 is already voting rce anyway, not like he can unvote) but holy fuck it's annoying and can we not throw the game at this hour pls

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

votey 3.17

NorwegianboyEE (2):

RCEnigma, Aristeia

RCEnigma (1):

T3

Aristeia (1):

NorwegianboyEE

not voting (3):

Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, mastina

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to sqump. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-09-08 13:20:00)

modorator notes

• potion replaces potion

[Dwlee99]

Dats I kinda feel like you're scum fmpov

[Datisi]

that's problematic. why?

[Dwlee99]

Cause if you're not scum with Norwee and mastina is town then norwee is voting scum and Ari is scum probably so you'd be scum?

[T3]

hmmm
yes

[T3]

I would just like to point out that norwee is obvious town.

[Datisi]

Cause if you're not scum with Norwee and mastina is town then norwee is voting scum and Ari is scum probably so you'd be scum?

and t3 cannot be scum in that scenario becaaaaauseee...?

tbh my hope is that (1) we vote out rce and he flips of red (2) aristeia is confirmed scum since she was voting norwee for like the whole time (unless norwee/rce were bussing which uh, what) so we yeet her (3) through the black magic fuckery of night actions in a no-factional-nightkill game, we manage to sneak another yeet in so that i don't have to convince the rest of you to vote t3

granted this assumes my solve is right (which now that i think about it, might not be considering the speed with which you hammered tldne when i started reevaling s_s but that's neither here nor there) and there's a question of whether rce/ari would lock themselves into this, but then again i did say ari could've seen my indecisiveness towards mastina and voted there

that is still something i want to at least look at again but my brain is not working right now

[Datisi]

oh wait retti had an rce/dwlee not partners read right? i might decide to sheep that then blame him if it's wrong lel

[T3]

I'm not scum because I received a green pm.

[T3]

I don't know how to say this to your face Datisi... but you're scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

@norwee, can you stop pretending like i'm confirmed scum fypov when you have zero reason to do so, thanks

My reasoning is based on that you fit together with Aristeia and RCE better than any other slot. Of course it could be wrong, you're definitely the weakest read. Where i have Aristeia and RCE as literally conf!scum while you're just generally scummy by associations and lack of participation in ElO up to now which feels uncharacteristic of town!you.

[T3]

Hm wait
Dwlee hasbeen yelling at rce but never voted them today

[NorwegianboyEE]

If you want to claim you're town that's fine and all, but i want to see you actually point out an likely teammate to RCE/Aristeia that wouldn't be you.

[Datisi]

@norwee, that is fair i definitely haven't been doing my usual elo play, but honestly i urge you to have a real-time posting session w me at some point. scum!me freezes up constantly in real time posting, especially in elo. like, read my last two-three scum elos, i can't fake that yet.

pedit: norwee have you forgotten that event where i was like "hey t3 could be scum" abd you were like "holy hell"

[NorwegianboyEE]

Hm wait
Dwlee hasbeen yelling at rce but never voted them today

Yeah they are either being dense as hell, or pretending to be dense as hell. By constantly questioning Mastina and her logic when she is being so obvtown.

[T3]

Theoretically it could be dwlee
But also like nah

[Datisi]

I don't know how to say this to your face Datisi... but you're scum.

and again with the nonsense shitpush wee