Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Dwlee99]

So you think I'm scum and that I'm distancing/bussing Aa9, so you won't vote her?

If you think me being scum implies that Aa9 is scum, then she is probabilistically more likely to flip scum than me and you should be voting her.

The misrep is real
House thinks AA9 could be scum or town, more likely scum, but thinks you’re scum regardless. So no, probability doesn’t suggest Arc should be elimmed.

-Qrow

Also really baffled @ House’s 2342

No, house thinks I'm scum for bussing Aa9. If that was the reason for me to be scum, then I'm less or equally likely to be scum than aa9.

[Dwlee99]

Well thought, I think house believes in me now

[Sakura Hana]

I'm actually on the camp that dwlee's push on AA9 doesnt look like a bus.

[Save The Dragons]

i still think elsa jay is town so i'm pretty happy with the raid

[Mandelbrot]

Well thought, I think house believes in me now

/sign

-House

You don't understand me, but that's ok.

[Mandelbrot]

i still think elsa jay is town so i'm pretty happy with the raid

Bad dragon.

No biscuit.

- House

[Save The Dragons]

i don't understand the elsa jay hate tbh

[Qrow and Raven]

If P -> Q then Pr (P) <= Pr (Q) because Pr (P and Q) = Pr (P)

P = me being scum
Q = Arc being scum

P -> Q is that me being scum means Aa9 is scum.

VOTE: Dwlee

I oppose algebra-like equations with a passion. Scum are also known for using math.

That's also a meme vote because I don't think my vote is doing much now. So I'm waiting for a signal of who to vote for from someone I trust.

This is stats, not algebra

It’s bullshit, is what it is.
House proposed 2 universes where you are scum. You latched onto half of that and morphed the argument to something it wasn’t.

-Qrow

[Dwlee99]

Yea except if I'm scum why am I bothering to push arc there instead of just... not

[Mandelbrot]

i don't understand the elsa jay hate tbh

Here's 2 examples of very hateable posts just from toDay:

Uh. Okay. Random thing but Sakura plz heal Toog so they can flavor solve later.

Yeah, let's not heal THE FUCKING INVESTIGATIVE WITH A GUILTY

But what if we elim before she gives us a name? To spice things up a bit.

Yeah, let's NOT GET THE NAME OF THE GUILTIED PLAYER

- House

[Dwlee99]

Like at the time the theory was I'm either bussing arc or trying to counterwagon mom. We know mom is town so I couldn't have been trying to counterwagon her (and at the time I argued that that world made no sense anyway) which leaves the world where I'm bussing arc.

[Save The Dragons]

yuck

you really think elsa jay is scum trying to sneak that in

[Qrow and Raven]

Sigh...

AA9 - I still think they town told early, and I haven't had issues with their play.

dwlee - obnoxious, standard dwlee play. Not town reading them, not scum reading them. Most likely to have left decent interactions to check back with after other flips have occured.

Cakez - Early scum read, though not a high priority. I'd support a Kim here if public majority favors it.

Titus - Kind of a non-presence even after V/LA ended, surprising for a prolific slot. I hard disagree with their opinion on how to handle filling raids going forward, and found them scummy for even suggesting it. Would lim today, sans a scan Titus is harder to lim in general though.

I think I want to revisit this with more recent developments in mind. What town tells did you notice early on from AA9? Why wasn’t Cakez a high priority for you?

-Qrow

[Mandelbrot]

yuck

you really think elsa jay is scum trying to sneak that in

Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.

- House

[Qrow and Raven]

Like at the time the theory was I'm either bussing arc or trying to counterwagon mom. We know mom is town so I couldn't have been trying to counterwagon her (and at the time I argued that that world made no sense anyway) which leaves the world where I'm bussing arc.

Or you could be pushing one town to save another to set up false interaction reads
The fact is that your argument at the time was bad and manipulative.

-Qrow

[Mandelbrot]

Like at the time the theory was I'm either bussing arc or trying to counterwagon mom. We know mom is town so I couldn't have been trying to counterwagon her (and at the time I argued that that world made no sense anyway) which leaves the world where I'm bussing arc.

You can't have a theory about busting without first having a suspicion of scum.

- House

[Save The Dragons]

yuck

you really think elsa jay is scum trying to sneak that in

Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.

- House

the first point is pretty benign and the second one seems like a joke?

[Mandelbrot]

yuck

you really think elsa jay is scum trying to sneak that in

Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.

- House

the first point is pretty benign and the second one seems like a joke?

Not really.

And you can't forward a pro-scum agenda and expect town to have confidence in you.

- House

[Qrow and Raven]

One time I was convinced by Nero because I'm pretty sure he genuinely thought she was evil (it was multiball).

Idk if this matters but my recollection was Nero pushed her because she was scummy and not aligned with him, I think he didn’t actually have an opinion on her alignment directly.

-Qrow

[Save The Dragons]

im confident in elsa jay

[Elsa Jay]

House already confirmed earlier to not like my jokes and isn't able to read sarcasm. And I'm to lazy to use the SaRcAtIc text lingo.

And ftr, basically locking the TP on one target and leaving everyone elsa for dead is stupid and rather Sakura not confirm who they're on.

Any bonus TP's can be on Sakura tho.

[Qrow and Raven]

...... I'm not playing this game of musical votes.
-R

It feels like the mom vote was facetious since that's the wagon I was moving off of and house moved away from it for a dwlee vote.

So I get where the feeling there isn't resistance to some of these wagons is coming from but it feels more like there is an unspoken equilibrium. I don't know why though.

I could vote Mara.

VOTE: Mom

Like this is ehhh.

It fits with the line of aa9 prob scum -> interactions with dwlee and qrow seem genuine on aa9's part -> votes suspicion.

But the timing feels off because it could have generated an actual push but now comes off self served since Mandelbrot found a push they believe in more. I haven't really gotten into why wheme is likely scum but that's also the case for me and unless cheeky is convinced mom is scum I'm probably not moving back.

Can you rephrase this, I can’t tell what it’s trying to imply

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

my scum pool rn
(qrow and raven, elsa, wheme, head one and head two, Romance, Mirio)
and actually save the dragons has been lackluster so they can go in there too

lmao I swear to god that last line was not provoked by save the dragons' last post

StD probtown

-Qrow

[Dwlee99]

One time I was convinced by Nero because I'm pretty sure he genuinely thought she was evil (it was multiball).

Idk if this matters but my recollection was Nero pushed her because she was scummy and not aligned with him, I think he didn’t actually have an opinion on her alignment directly.

-Qrow

He seemed baffled in the neighbor chat she wasn't actually scum

[Dwlee99]

Like at the time the theory was I'm either bussing arc or trying to counterwagon mom. We know mom is town so I couldn't have been trying to counterwagon her (and at the time I argued that that world made no sense anyway) which leaves the world where I'm bussing arc.

Or you could be pushing one town to save another to set up false interaction reads
The fact is that your argument at the time was bad and manipulative.

-Qrow

Or I could just be trying to actually kill scum?