Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Sakura Hana]

Regardless we are not eliminating TC today, so can we please talk about something else?

[Mandelbrot]

Q: if TC was joking why did they say they were trying to bait an nk?

TC wasn't joking

Join Raid

Don't test me and make me regret this decision, it's rare for me to have so much resolve in anything, but I KNOW for a fact that I want to be on this raid.

VOTE: Tomorrow Corp

I'm counter claiming if that wasnt obvious.

How about we save each other so scum can't touch us, Sakura?

Or we could randomly save Romance too so it's risky for them to target any of us.

Trying to bait the protective off the claimed investigative with a red check is NOT A TOWN STRATEGY.

- House

[Titus]

I think it's wise to let mastina use her ability. I just doubt it will show anything at all.

[Titus]

Regardless we are not eliminating TC today, so can we please talk about something else?

Thoughts on Bell today? I like him a lot less.

[Sakura Hana]

Regardless we are not eliminating TC today, so can we please talk about something else?

Thoughts on Bell today? I like him a lot less.

I'd say he's fallen off, but D2 went by pretty quick

Thanks to Mr TOMORROW CORPORATION btw

[Titus]

Bell, your thoughts on the gamestate?

[Mandelbrot]

2197 quote was supposed to be 2196.

- House

[Elsa Jay]

Random question for Mastina, but since I'm gonna assume your way of getting said role known is by graverobbing it or something to become it yourself, I'd more recommend taking the Inventor for town's sake.

Whatever H1H2 was just mentioned something about Alisaie the character. That's one slot if anything. At least that's what the flavor implied. It wouldn't clear 2 slots I think.

[mastina]

I've noticed... mastina thus far has claimed absolutely nothing that does not come intent with the power of a red role pm.

I can be hardcleared if I fullclaim--I've deliberately not done so as doing so would only be pro-scum, but I explicitly am a role that CANNOT be scum and is PROVABLY a role which cannot be scum and is, explicitly, a role that can conftown me.

I started the game not realizing I was one of the strongest town roles in the game, but after I confirmed the mechanics with the mod I realized I legitimately AM one of the strongest town roles in the game. It just isn't beneficial for me to fullclaim and explain why. (Well, it is beneficial--to the scum. Which is precisely why I have not done so.)

Why would a one shot raid successor be able to clear anyone? Why would this check be unstoppable by any means? Why couldn't this be used on Elsa?

I have always been explicitly clear that there were multiple parts to my role, and that my role was NOT just 1x raid successor.
The unclaimed part of the role is a method to bypass a janitor.
This bypass is unstoppable because of what the bypass is; scum cannot prevent it.
But it is something that can only be used on a janitored player.
Meaning the only way it'd be usable on Elsa Jay is if Elsa Jay were janitored.
The use of it on Head One Head Two will reveal H1H2's role, which bypasses scum having janitored them.
Given as how H1H2 had claimed a role that clears tictac and TC, if the reveal of H1H2's role reveals this information to be true...then tictac and Tomorrow Corporation get hardcleared.

Romance, how does my result make any sense if TC is town and single ball is here?

Your result makes sense by simple virtue of TC being town, in a game where every scum player likely has a role. (The only scum roles that would not act are a goon or a scum role that is entirely passive, but both of those are less likely overall.)

Elsa is being so egregious today like “we got TC we got this!” and was like oh silly Mastina pushing me :/ and then Wheme jumped on like Yeah Mastina Claim Your Role!

And no one finds this weird?

Btw this is in fact a good point.

[RealCheeks]

Also Q&R pushing us D1, D2 then not getting on us today could mean something.

Tictac and TC should resolve with mastina. I don't buy that H1H2 was scum janitored by scum at all. Final readlist from me incoming shortly.
~C

[mastina]

...your result makes sense because you tracked a VT going nowhere.
If you think the entire scumteam goes in claiming TC hardtown full cleared in this environment, just no.

^Romance is literally the slot who got us our first elimination on scum and y'all are ignoring her in favor of pushing explicit moonlogic that violates occam's razor.

That should really fucking say something to y'all.

[Mandelbrot]

I don't buy that H1H2 was scum janitored by scum at all.

That's

such

a weird take.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

I don't buy that H1H2 was scum janitored by scum at all.

That's

such

a weird take.

- House

Ignore that, misread.

- House

[Sakura Hana]

I dont understand where Realcheeks got this idea that H1H2 was scum janitored by scum.

[mastina]

If all of you are taking TC’s posting as anything other than lighthearted and joking there really is no hope.

^

Why the fuck does TC as scum change claim and say fucking inane nonsense? Why? What about TC’s posting makes any of you think that THEY WANTED TO BE BELIEVED.

^

BECAUSE I AM TRYING TO KILL SCUM AND I DO NOT WANT TO ELIM TOWN. LIKE MY WINCON SAYS.

^
And eliminating a slot that is possibly conftown who has a tracker result indicating that they should be far more likely to be town...

...Instead of eliminating within the pool of {Dwlee, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay} that is guaranteed to have scum in it?

Is doing the opposite of eliminating scum.

[Sakura Hana]

mastina, you're gonna auto success this raid right?

[mastina]

THEY DID NOT DRAW IT OUT INTENTIONALLY IMO. SAKURA CLAIMED PRE-EMPTIVELY. I SAID AS MUCH WHEN IT HAPPENED.

This, too.

Like holy shit I know mafia is serious but please just go read TC’s iso from the perspective of someone memeing around and having fun, like. What’s the scum agenda? To die? Why not kill the doc claim you baited out..????

Also this.

Why do you know TC is town then?

Well given that there's 5 scum to (number of players - 5, too lazy to math) town, and that statistically speaking a player is more likely to be town than scum, the burden of proof is on the accuser, not the accused, and the question isn't why TC is town, but why TC would be scum.

But to humor you.

For why TC is town. Oh, I dunno. Maybe...like...

Head One and Head Two was eliminated Night 2.

TC is town trust me

TC and tictac are both ~almost~ mech conftown FMPOV.

to be clear:
i know stuff
and that stuff strongly implies that both tictac and TC are confirmed town.

As in my-role-can-confirm-multiple-townies once someone does something outside of the game.

My role implies both tictac and Tc are town but not 100%. If something happens to someone outside of the game then these players can be 100% confirmed town.

Are y'all gonna ignore the fact that

Head One Head Two was probably janitored

to prevent TC from being conftown'd from their flip

?!?

Because it should be stupidly simple to...yaknow. Trust the nightkilled janitored player's roleclaim and NOT vote out who they said was conftown and instead vote for the player who has basically hard-scumclaimed (Elsa Jay).

Plus that what Romance is saying is describing innately town behaviors that are indicative of the slot not being scum.

[Elsa Jay]

???

Who said there's 5 scum?

(I noticed what elsa she typed and I'm ignoring it.

[Sakura Hana]

I'm gonna assume that mastina's a coroner or something similar.

[RealCheeks]

{Titus, Toogeloo, mastina, Sakura Hana, Save The Dragons, tictac, Mandelbrot, Romance, dwlee99}
{Tomorrow Corporation, Qrow and Raven, ArcAngel9}
{Elsa Jay, Whemestar, Mystic Bears, Bell}

Most unsure about Elsa who can swap out for someone in above tier.
~C

[mastina]

But there are consequences to joke claiming a doc. As seen by a counter claim.

You do not policy-eliminate a slot that has reason to be conftown, when you have every reason to instead be hunting for scum roles that are proven to be in the game which the slot that has reason to be conftown is provably not a holder of.

Why isn't Elsa the easy miselimination?

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
   
5. SirCakez
   
   
6. Sakura Hana
   
7. Romance
   
8. tictac
   
9. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

Gee I wonder why the raid could have POSSIBLY failed.

ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT THE NIGHTKILLED PLAYER LITERALLY WAS HARD-VOUCHING FOR TC AND TICTAC BEING TOWN, we KNOW that there's a group with AT LEAST ONE GUARANTEED UNFLIPPED SCUM.

Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
   
6. Romance
   
   
7. tictac
   
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The raid is a

failure!

We know that Sakura Hana and Romance are town by role, but even if we didn't, their play by play is town.

We know Bell is town by his play. He's admittedly not cleared by role, but play is strong clear.

That, in of itself, means we have AT LEAST ONE SCUM GUARANTEED in {Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

And in that group?The nightkilled player was literally hard-vouching for tictac and TC being town. And, The janitor was probably used to prevent tictac and Tomorrow Corporation from being conftown upon the H1H2 flip.
Meaning that realistically, the elimination pool today should be PRECISELY:

{Dwlee99, RealCheeks, Elsa Jay}, as that pool contains one GUARANTEED scum.

And one of the players in there (hint; it's Elsa) was being a blatant scumfuck yesterday, while the other two both look town enough.

So there's ZERO realm in which today's elimination SHOULD NOT be Elsa Jay.

Don't give me that "too scum to be scum" shit.

Sometimes, blatant scum will pull the blatant scum move. Because they know they are blatant scum and have nothing to lose by pulling it.

Elsa Jay was already a prime suspect

(without the raid fail taken into account).

Why the fuck would Elsa NOT fail the raid as scum?

In contrast,

why the fuck would not-Elsa scum fail the raid?

If we eliminate Elsa today (which we should) and

if Elsa doesn't flip scum,

that blows their cover

. Is revealing that they're scum really worth a mislim on a player who is likely to eat the elimination even if they let the raid succeed? Fuck no it isn't.

The ONLY player with an incentive to make the raid fail is Elsa Jay.

Today

on D3 we were likely going to eliminate Elsa regardless of yesterday's raid succeeding or failing.

If we eliminate Elsa and yesterday's raid succeeded,

the names on the raid would be pseudocleared

.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips scum, yesterday's raid failing makes sense.
If we eliminate Elsa and Elsa flips town, then yesterday scum making the raid fail is literally gamethrowing from them because it exposes that there is scum in a group we otherwise would have reason to believe was scum-free. (See above.)

QED, the ONLY explanation for the raid failing is Elsa is scum.

Gonna quote this again with added clarity/emphasis because I reiterate this.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay is gamethrowing because we were likely going to yeet Elsa Jay anyway. And then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? The scum who had minimal-to-zero focus on them prior to the raid failing and an Elsa flip now has a laser focus on them because we know the pool has a scum within.

Scum in the raid who is NOT Elsa Jay had every reason to let the raid succeed--we can yeet Elsa Jay without the raid failing, and then what happens when Elsa Jay would flip town? Nothing, the scum if anything on the raid would be considered town.

But scum being Elsa Jay has the motive to do so because Elsa Jay knows that Elsa's going to, with a high probability, be yeeted. If you're going to be yeeted anyway, you've nothing to lose by making the raid fail.

I’m thinking scum exist on that raid that isn’t Elsa, but Elsa is also scum, and the scum agenda was for him to be flipped and for the town at large to tune out the rest of the raid.

This is, admittedly, possible, but the result is STILL that Elsa Jay is the correct elimination today.

The THEORETICAL possibilities are:
-The raid was all town. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
-The raid had at least one scum on it, and it was not Elsa Jay. They decide not to draw attention to themselves by not making the raid failed. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
--The raid had multiple scum on it. One was Elsa Jay. They decide not to draw attention to themselves by not making the raid failed. (Disproven by the raid failing.)
-The raid had at least one scum on it, and it was not Elsa Jay. In spite of the fact that Elsa Jay is likely an elimination, they decided to make the raid fail despite how that will narrow down who could be scum meaning they basically outted themselves. (This is possible, but violates occam's razor.)
-The raid had multiple scum on it. One was Elsa Jay. They decide Elsa Jay will take all of the heat from the raid failing and bank on the scum on the raid that's not-Elsa being pseudo-conftown.
-The raid had one scum on it, and it was Elsa Jay. Elsa failed the raid to deny town the advantages and get scum closer to their boons, knowing Elsa would go down anyway regardless of raid success/failure.

There's precisely one possible scenario where Elsa Jay is not scum and it requires the scum to be frankly moronic and make the stupidest play possible for them to make, because they don't need it to frame Elsa and they would become prime suspect(s) after an Elsa townflip with the raid having failed.

So in all other scenarios, ones which are comparatively simpler and smarter, Elsa Jay is just scum.

It's almost like I've been laying out why Elsa Jay is scum here all day long and why Elsa Jay is NOT mislim-bait.

[Sakura Hana]

Btw, for those saying that "Hostile Factions" mean multiball, just look at scum's win condition

Win Condition:

All Eorzean factions are eliminated

or nothing can be done to prevent reaching the condition.

So are there multiple town factions too?

Was curiously exploring the dead scum's flipped role PM and see if there was anything in there that mentioned how many scum we have, while i didnt find that, i found this.

[Mandelbrot]

{Titus, Toogeloo, mastina, Sakura Hana, Save The Dragons, tictac, Mandelbrot, Romance, dwlee99}
{Tomorrow Corporation, Qrow and Raven, ArcAngel9}
{Elsa Jay, Whemestar, Mystic Bears, Bell}

Most unsure about Elsa who can swap out for someone in above tier.
~C

Of your scumreads, Wheme is the only one I'd currently consider.

AA9 being above bottom tier is meh. StD being hard town requires some sort of case.

- House

- House

[RealCheeks]

Yeah probably just Elsa + another buddy on raid. I'd look for two in raid and 2-3 out of it. Use next raid as a check.
~C

[Sakura Hana]

Sigh

Whatever I dont feel like arguing with mastina when mastina is just yelling about romance and elsa jay and ignoring my questions.
Plus i think RealCheeks giving out a final reads list was probably a bit +Town points.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Sorry House.