Mini Normal 2239 | AQAtPimP | Game Over

[MargotRosa]

If we had a protective outside of some temp NK immunity, then Town wins. Seems like a lot of Town PRs tho

[Aristeia]

I somewhat doubt we have a protective because if we did then Roden shouldn't have died on N1.

Also 2 ICs + 1 Shot-Vig + killblocking role seems overpowered for a 13p mini.

it's possible both scum were just inactive and did not submit a nightkill - which would point towards Salsa/Chaos as niether have any posts on the site overnight and Salsa was VLA.

[MargotRosa]

Wrt mass claim, I'm putting cards on table now and saying that I'm not claiming specific role until ELO. I've already revealed that I have a PR (back in D1 from memory) but this late in the game it becomes useless if I claim before the last second

[Aristeia]

I am a VT

[MargotRosa]

I wonder if there's some bizarre malarkey going on with Scum PRs? Seems like the only way to balance against all the Town power would be Scum power, and if there's no multi-tasking?

[ChaosOmega]

VOTE: Salsa

PoE is Salsa/Ari/Datisi. I think scum have to have been off the iv wagon D1 given that there was a viable town counterwagon and the last 2 votes to hammer iv were himself and the IC. ssbm is claimed vig with no cc, I can't imagine a universe where Margot is scum here, and Enchant is mod-confirmed.

[MargotRosa]

Salsa is seeming more and more likely. I'm going back over d1, and a lot of her pushes seem very opportunistic. She has ssbm as more or less lock scum by this post:

Spoiler: Post 261

Read-list (in no particular order):

Roden

Datisi

datsi

T3

N_M
Aris
CO
iv

Getting a feeling that there is at least one scum in this list:

MR
Mew
Dwlee

ssbm

The scum lock seems to have occurred over ssbm scum reading T3 for being third Miller claim, and the weird joke about N_M being an encryptor and in a mason pair, which happens here:

Spoiler: Post 242

Because it didnt seem like a joke considering the Miller claims that had been going around. N_M had already claimed miller. Extending that to Miller Mason sounds like a real claim. I think T3 was making a scum fake claim and messed up and is now calling it a joke

What? Lol! Now I understand why do

T3

vote

ssbm

don't know how many games you played with

T3

, but more than me for sure and if I can catch it, then I should can understand that it was a joke and scum!

T3

won't slip like this lol!

UNVOTE: Mew

VOTE: ssbm

I also remember thinking that her responses to Mew weren't completely convincing to me, but dropping it because Mew dropped it as well. In retrospect, it feels like someone posturing and looking tough, rather than necessarily actually behaving in a Town way.

I don't know that acting in such a way as to make someone back off from FoSing you, as opposed to necessarily "behaving in a Town way" is necessarily scum read worthy, but I do feel it's worth at least bringing up my thoughts in light of the earlier points I've made

[MargotRosa]

I'm happy to vote Salsa, and I am realising we maybe don't need to be quite as cautious as I anticipated, given that I have as many conf towns as there are likely scum players.

I do want to discuss what we do next. That said, I'm happy to just discuss tomorrow, if people feel confident about the Salsa vote and especially if people feel that they don't want to give Scum info before nightfall, which I think is probably the sensible course of action. This is particularly given that I doubt whatever conversation we have today will change the vote.

I'm looking at the slots in play, and feel pretty confident that Salsa is, by a country mile, the most likely to flip red.

Would like to hear Salsa's case, as we have time, and anyone else who has anything pressing to say today, or who thinks I'm overstepping. I am aware I felt quite confident about Datsi, after getting scum vibes from the slot since very early in the game, and given my performance in the final days of previous games, my gut is maybe not the best weather vane.

VOTE: Salsa e-2

[MargotRosa]

I'm frustrated about how yesterday ended. I felt so certain we'd gotten one after Datsi self-hammered. It felt to me like Scum trying to shut down conversation to get heat off other slots.

I was planning on pushing Chaos if Datsi flipped red, because if I had read it right, 1609 being the last content-y post in the thread before the self hammer might have indicated something. Alas

[Aristeia]

I'm spiritually voting salsa but I am also kind of worried in general and I want to give Datisi/Enchant the chance to actually participate.

[MargotRosa]

Current PoE (in order):
Salsabil Faria
ChaosOmega
Aristeia
Datisi

Also a veeeeery outside chance that Ssbm is in contention. The only way I see this happening is if scum has a one-shot second night kill, deciding to use it n1, either in reaction to IV getting voted off and revealing that vigilante existed, or by bussing IV themselves. I can't remember who else was on the d1 IV wagon - will need to check.

I say this only because I'm worried about a weird lack of balance out of what we've seen revealed thus far. I'm trying to imagine what Scum must have to turn the tide in their favour, given that the only power role revealed for Scum shows them whether one slot is an IC, or whether it is a vig (assuming no multi-tasking), and Town has had 2 ICs, most likely a one-shot vigilante, and also some form of protection (whether a JK/doctor, or some protective item). Am I wrong in thinking this looks very unbalanced, and there must be something else going on that we're not seeing?

[MargotRosa]

votecount 1.15

T3 (5) :

Salsabil Faria ; Aristeia ; Datsi ; Datisi ; Not_Mafia

Exe-2

Innocentvillager (7) :

ChaosOmega ; Dwlee99 ; ssbm_Kyouko ; MargotRosa ; Roden ; innocentvillager ; Enchant

Execution !

ssbm_Kyouko (1) :

T3

Not voting (0) :

These are the final votes on d1. It's almost half/half. Interestingly, four of the remaining slots were on the IV wagon, and two are the two conf towns. I invite everyone to ignore my earlier post, because I am realising it probably relies on scum team being exactly Chaos and ssbm, and I don't think that makes sense in my mind.

[MargotRosa]

I'm going to back away from the thread for now, and just let myself breathe before I do what I usually do and overcomplicate the game to high hell

[Enchant]

I am missed something but why Kyouko is confirmed town

[MargotRosa]

She is an un-CC'd vigilante

[Enchant]

Understond, thank you.

If we can't kill maf with 2 confirms, we kinda deserve lose. I will think about suspects more carefully, please unvote and don't choochoo anyone yet.

[Salsabil Faria]

I'll post later, busy rn. I've something to say, so don't eliminate me yet please.

[MargotRosa]

UNVOTE:

[Datisi]

The only way I see this happening is if scum has a one-shot second night kill

this is not possible.

quick things i wanna put out: i want everyone who is voting salsa to give a case on who her partner is. doubly so for people who are certain in that vote. my biggest issue with yeeting gamma yesterday was that he seemed unaligned with pretty much everyone, and none of his voters actually took this into consideration. and he flipped green. so i'm forcing the issue now.

second, now that margot has hinted at a power role but apparently not a blocking/saving role, i am very skeptical of her. a newbie just finished (that i was backup modding) where she as scum purposefully no killed and then fakeclaimed pr. i haven't read most of that game, so idk how associates/tone compare, but i plan to take a look tonight when i come home from uni.

also, something about 1635 rings wrong, how she's listing the known town power and saying it's already unbalanced, while not taking into consideration her own role and how it compares.

granted, that could be a 9000 iq play of a protective who did get a save, in which case lol sorry, but that's not the vibe i'm getting rn and i have to say that.

be back tonight, maybe i'll pop in here and there if anyone has burning questions for me. cheers.

[Gypyx]

votecount 4.1

Salsabil Faria (1) :

ChaosOmega

Not voting (6) : MargotRosa - ssbm_Kyouko - Enchant - Datisi - Salsabil Faria - Aristeia

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to executed someone, day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-10-25 14:49:19)

announcements

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flavor

There is no respite for this battered soul

[MargotRosa]

Honestly, putting this reads list together was a lot more difficult than in previous games. Usually, there is a clear narrative to follow (as in Newbie 2076, where things rolled out naturally from T3's opening gambit). There isn't really one here; everything is so zig zaggy and without clear purpose.

Being open, I am not good with meta, and reading people, which is why I'm so uncertain right now. I am a political economist, and a statistician, and I work best when I have data. That's been as true on this site as it has been in my real life.

As we get closer to the deadline, if there isn't much more coherence to everything, I'm going to reveal my role purely to get some data, and get some coherency to the narrative so that we're all on track again.

For now:
VOTE: Mewtaph

I didn't just hint, but confirmed having a power role day 1, because I wanted data to work off. I can explain why the events of that day have changed my mind about revealing, and also why it didn't really factor too hard into my analysis at this late stage.

Like, mine is a role whose usefulness is more or less contingent on scum getting much more successful earlier in the day than they did. Part of the reason that I've been surprised is that all of scum's play has felt forced since D1, with maybe an exception D2, I can't remember? Will check.

I'm happy to claim if you want me to. It will render the role completely useless, but honestly, seems unlikely it'll be anything but before end of game anyway

[MargotRosa]

As for the game in question: The fake claim was something I made up right before the last day in a panic, because I missed d3 and had to think quick and on my feet. Also, as I said there, my play was much more based around playing with people's emotions so that they questioned their plays. It wasn't about being town read so much as it was being in a position where everyone questioned their own play so much they felt confused enough to believe my frankly unbelievable story.

Meta is completely different here, and I offered to claim D1 purely to get some data going so I had more data to read the game properly, which up until that point had been very slow

[MargotRosa]

This is the post in question. Post links to the game, and everyone is more than welcome to read it. If anything looks all that similar I'd be honestly interested to find out myself

I am jailkeeper.

I JKed RH9 last night to make sure something ridiculous wasn't going on (ie. RH9 was tracker) and the lack of a kill last night indicates I was right.

I JKed Prism n1, because I thought that Prism was most likely to be targeted d1. (I crumbed that I would do this in post 361.)

n2 is complicated, because I changed my strat after I found out connor was Scum, and in so doing ruined my planned crumbs (in which, unless I crumbed otherwise, whoever I parked on at the end of the day was who I jailed).

Side note: I cannot believe that noone made anything of the fact that I alone had parked my vote on the claimed investigative at the end of d2. I honestly thought at the time that this was too obvious a tell that I was doing something odd, and that I wanted people to pay attention to it. If you had noticed, then kudos, but given that noone stalled d3 long enough to find out about it, I doubt it.

I had started to put things together in my head during d2 (and tried to point this out in post 590) because I felt like the post looked like someone affecting surprise at an elimination for precisely the situation I was worried I was finding myself in, in which I could not predict whatsoever who scum was targetting for night kill, and therefore could not properly protect whoever needed protecting. I wasn't sure though, especially given that JK/Tracker was a valid pairing, and it was possible they had misrepresented their role as Cop rather than Tracker (given that the former is potentially stronger). If they were holding to the Cop thing though, they must be a Mafia Goon (because otherwise it's an instant loss, with 2 PRs in every Tracker setup).

Was going to JK RH9 n2, which I had crumbed, but didn't.

In my head, I justified wanting to JK them because, in doing so, if they gave any read, it was clear that they were not a tracker (because JK prevents them from tracking), and if there was no kill, I had some juicy info to bring to Town (either they were targetted, or they were scum, and I would find out very quickly by getting them to clarify what their role was as soon as dawn broke.

I changed my mind, and decided to JK Prism when I discovered we had eliminated Scum d2. This was a bad call, which I will absolutely wear in the post game, but let's put that aside for a minute. In my head, I justified changing because of the following:
a) It was still possible that RH9 was misrepresenting being a Tracker, rather than a Cop. Therefore, we would have more info come the morning based on RH9's data if someone was killed
b) I still wanted to clear Prism. In my head, the prime suspects were, in order, RH9, catboi, Prism. We had two nights before elo.Therefore, by JKing Prism, if someone dies, they aren't scum. In addition, I doubted that scum who doesn't kill Prism n1 tries to target Prism n2.

Therefore, my overthinking meant that I figured I got more info from JKing Prism n2 than RH9. Which is true, but we also got a way more volatile game state.

When I logged on to see d3 had started and ended, I realised I'd made a bad call, because the whole play relied on getting to spell everything out d3, and I hadn't gotten the opportunity to say anything. Therefore, I finally made good on my d2 crumb and JKed RH9.

I did this because it achieved two things:

1 - If someone else got killed, RH9 wasn't scum. There was still a very unlikely possibility in my head that they might have been tracker and misunderstood the role PM, in which case we were a PR pair. THis would have made life pretty easy, because it would have had to be Cheeky, and it was just that she didn't move one night, or else RH9 had been roleblocked the night that Cheeky had been investigated. I also thought it basically impossible that a scum who isn't RH9 targets RH9 n3 but doesn't target RH9 n2. At any rate, the possibility of that happening was so remote, that the chance of that happening, and also of RH9 claiming investigative

2 - Noone got killed, which meant everyone would have hopefully been confused enough to put a stop to a fast d4, thereby giving me time to talk it all out.


Ask yourselves, honestly, does anything RH9 says he has done make any sense at all? Why on Earth does he investigate Taco n1? Why on Earth does he investigate Cheeky instead of me n2, when I am the only slot he has voted for all game?

The answer is that it makes zero sense. I am the jail keeper. RH9 is scum.

Scum PT from that game was released unredacted, so feel free to read that also

[ChaosOmega]

quick things i wanna put out: i want everyone who is voting salsa to give a case on who her partner is. doubly so for people who are certain in that vote. my biggest issue with yeeting gamma yesterday was that he seemed unaligned with pretty much everyone, and none of his voters actually took this into consideration. and he flipped green. so i'm forcing the issue now.

Going to wait for Salsa to post her thoughts before answering this, but I do have someone in mind.

[Salsabil Faria]

I don't have that much to say other than my POE atm (it may help on the next day): {

CO

>

Ari

>

MR

/

Datisi

}

After being wrong on

datsi

and being wrong for the 3rd time (including

T3

and

Dwlee

) in the same time, I don’t have any confidence or solid thought/read left. Don’t think I can help this game anymore because I myself don't understanding anything after

datsi

's flipping VT + I'm a VT only.

Hope, town will win....

VOTE: Salsabil Faria