Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[mastina]

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

To elaborate on this:

Nancy Drew is

terrified

of me when she's scum.
You might think, "but mastina, aren't you townreading her? If she's scum, isn't that enough to keep you alive?"
Well that's the thing.
At the beginning of the game...I wasn't.
I later moved them up to here, but I wasn't townreading them even there.
Even after I moved them up to here, I still wasn't locktowning them.
That was actually my last readslist of the day, even though I later said they were unlikely scum.

Does Nancy, who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, not strongman me N1 when she KNOWS I was suspicious of her play and she KNOWS that she can't keep up the townness the entire game?

I think not. She'd be pushing for my death pretty damn heavily.

Does either of {Mandelbrot, Toogeloo} leave me alive if they were scum?
Well Mandelbrot has House who knows I'm inclined to scumread him nowadays and Yume who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, and Toogeloo similarly knows that I tend to scumread them regardless of their alignment. So I shouldn't live with either of those slots as scum.

How about Dwlee99? Probably not, as Dwlee has had personal experience with what leaving me alive for too long has done to them as scum. They've directly lost games they could have won, specifically because they

almost

nightkilled me early, but ultimately chose not to. I'd like to think that Dwlee, if scum, has learned from their mistakes and would not repeat the same mistake again and would advocate for my death.

STD?
It took me until, what, D4 to not scumread STD? I was pushing STD as a SirCakez scumbuddy even before D2's guilty on SirCakez. While STD might not have the same respect for me as the other scummers, the fact that I was scumreading STD for the majority of the game certainly lends credence to the idea that STD wouldn't justify leaving me alive.

The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

May as well pagetop this but I'd like to remind you that the real case is in my prior pagetop; 5775.

[tictac]

@mastina not mad about raid failing, tho did get super paranoid when it felt like u were avoiding the test. today is a new day.
who are all the folks who agree w you about QR? I must have missed them.

@cheeks let's not hurry the day for no reason k? i'm just glad ultima weapon wasn't a vig raid like i thougt it might be.

[Mandelbrot]

@mastina not mad about raid failing, tho did get super paranoid when it felt like u were avoiding the test.

You shouldn't be paranoid about that.

She stated clearly that she wanted to save her role for today, yesterday.

- House

[Mandelbrot]

Y'all do realize that my guaranteed raid success is an active ability, right? Not a passive.
Meaning, that I have to activate it?
I've not done so, because I only have one shot of it left, and if tomorrow is the bulletproof,

I REALLY wanna save the shot for tomorrow

.

[tictac]

i was talking about the time before that, when the shotnumber became 1 and she became not rb-immune.
did figure out the not rb-immune thing was probs the mysterious coroner thing. did u go over that btw? makes sense?

[Mandelbrot]

i was talking about the time before that, when the shotnumber became 1 and she became not rb-immune.
did figure out the not rb-immune thing was probs the mysterious coroner thing. did u go over that btw? makes sense?

I'm not even trying to wrap my head around that, tbh.

- House

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: RealCheeks

I might sheep this. She was also defending Mystic Bears.

Actually, not as much as you'd think. Will explain this in a bit.

What's the PoE, Panda?

Well, by the rb/strongman logic, it'd be precisely:
{RealCheeks, Mystic Bears} for the strongman and {RealCheeks, Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons} for the roleblocker.
And RealCheeks is basically hard-cleared by play ESPECIALLY with a Mystic Bears scumflip.

If we're going by slots being town by play, I'd say the pool is a bit wider, but not by much, per 5773;
With Toogeloo, Mandelbrot, Bell, Qrow and Raven, and RealCheeks all town by play, that leaves a POE pool of,
{Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

(Again, getting caught up in the thread properly then will be posting the PT content.)

If the Roleblocker is x shot we're mechanically not in that pool.
-R

[Mandelbrot]

So um...there are some contradictions we've noticed concerning mastina. Like this one

6 players, to contain the strongman and the roleblocker.

D2 (strong-willed) Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Romance
   
7. tictac
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The scum roleblocker basically cannot be among these names, because if the scum roleblocker were among these names, there was no need to make the raid fail in the first place, and in fact, making it fail would be incredibly detrimental. Which means that the roleblocker cannot* be Dwlee99, tictac, or Tomorrow Corporation.
(*Granted, this is where the 25% on STD not being scum comes from; if Elsa made the raid fail in spite of how detrimental doing so was to the scum, Dwlee, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation would all theoretically be possible to be scum.)

So the possibilities for the scum roleblocker are:
{Save the Dragons, RealCheeks, Mystic Bears}.
Per the town players being town by play, and the raid poe theory, that means one of those three MUST* be the scum roleblocker.
(*see above)

So if RC is in the pool of names that can't contain the roleblocker, why did you put them in roleblocker pool anyway?

And there is this one:

Yo, at work, so can't deal with PMS and such, or really respond to stuff in the thread at all, but:

I REALLY wanna save the shot for tomorrow.

Meaning, that right now, an unfilled raid will fail.

I just couldn't submit given work.

And what's up with that?

- Victorine

[Mandelbrot]

Also, betcha you forgot I exist.

- Victorine

[Mystic Bears]

Eugh my head hurts... I should also probably start efforting this game. Totally haven' been fair on NorNor me sat doing *vague wibbly hand wave and brain explosion mimicry*

Where we at?

[Mystic Bears]

Eugh my head hurts... I should also probably start efforting this game. Totally haven' been fair on NorNor me sat doing *vague wibbly hand wave and brain explosion mimicry*

Where we at?

-Flea, if it wasn't clear

[Dwlee99]

I'd find it super funny if Mastina typed that all up and then MB flips town a la Bingle in MBOS.

I'm confused why I'm still in people's poes here

[Mystic Bears]

oh theres a mastina wall on us? kewl. gimme a mo.

[Mystic Bears]

oh theres a mastina wall on us? kewl. gimme a mo.

-F

[RealCheeks]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

[RealCheeks]

he'll flip rb

...guess not

VOTE: Join raid

VOTE: Join raid

These two gumboots are already on it.
~C

[RealCheeks]

UNVOTE: just until we sort out the raid.
~C

[Mystic Bears]

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.
[...]
The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

Eh, boring.
Regarding me, yea I don't kill you N1 in most cases, because I'm reasonably sure I can stay out of your PoE and EC Mafia was beautiful but has probably left you a little paranoid around me. If I can't stay out of your PoE then I absolutely have to NK you because you will find me and bust me. While I am able to subvert your efforts on occasion, it doesn't happen nearly as much as you'd think.

If as scum I have no input in the NK, then I'm either scum with people who are disregarding my input (unwnds harbinger game) which is a lot of potential associatives from D1 - or - this is my slankiest game ever as an alignment we both know I love to play.

[Mystic Bears]

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.
[...]
The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

Eh, boring.
Regarding me, yea I don't kill you N1 in most cases, because I'm reasonably sure I can stay out of your PoE and EC Mafia was beautiful but has probably left you a little paranoid around me. If I can't stay out of your PoE then I absolutely have to NK you because you will find me and bust me. While I am able to subvert your efforts on occasion, it doesn't happen nearly as much as you'd think.

If as scum I have no input in the NK, then I'm either scum with people who are disregarding my input (unwnds harbinger game) which is a lot of potential associatives from D1 - or - this is my slankiest game ever as an alignment we both know I love to play.

-Flea again

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Why Mystic Bears is Scum

:

1:

Mechanical Speculation

(with a side of POE)

Mandelbrot's proven by role; they're not the scum strongman OR the scum roleblocker. With a third non-RB/Strongman scum role flip, this means they're flatout conftown. No "could be the scum role, in

theory

". They're just outright conftown.
Even if you happen to doubt my role-logic (you shouldn't, because it's literally occam's razor), there's plenty of play-based evidence. Titus lived in spite of having essentially claimed in the PT is one proof of Mandelbrot not being scum; the other is the scum's lack of good fakeclaims also gives credence to the slot being town.
And when you add together the role AND the play, there's fairly compelling reasons to be town both by play and by role.

Toogeloo is, by play, very damn strongly town. The scum wouldn't have botched their flavor claims with Toogeloo as scum almost assuredly, but even had they, Toogeloo's been instrumental in the death of scum in a way that makes Toogeloo just town here.

Bell is, by meta, essentially hard-cleared as town as this isn't Bell as scum.
Qrow and Raven are just as cleared as town for the same reason: Nancy can fake several parts of her towngame but I just don't think she's capable of doing what she's done this game as scum. Plus, Gamma Emerald looks rather town, playing more like I'd expect Gamma-town to in contrast to Gamma-scum.

Which leaves us with:
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Save The Dragons
dwlee99
tictac
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Tomorrow Corporation

6 players, to contain the strongman and the roleblocker.

D2 (strong-willed) Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Romance
   
7. tictac
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The scum roleblocker basically cannot be among these names, because if the scum roleblocker were among these names, there was no need to make the raid fail in the first place, and in fact, making it fail would be incredibly detrimental. Which means that the roleblocker cannot* be Dwlee99, tictac, or Tomorrow Corporation.
(*Granted, this is where the 25% on STD not being scum comes from; if Elsa made the raid fail in spite of how detrimental doing so was to the scum, Dwlee, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation would all theoretically be possible to be scum.)

So the possibilities for the scum roleblocker are:
{Save the Dragons, RealCheeks, Mystic Bears}.
Per the town players being town by play, and the raid poe theory, that means one of those three MUST* be the scum roleblocker.
(*see above)

Then we get to Sakura's theory,

D1 (+1 shot) Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

One of the players in this raid should be the strongman, as Sakura Hana's theory was that scum used a strongman shot on Mirio N1 and Titus N3 (the latter proven because Titus was bulletproof at the time and could not have died to anything BUT a strongman).
Given the names we know the alignment of in the above, that leaves the

theoretical

possibilities as:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.

It's not Mandelbrot per the reasons I gave above, of Mandelbrot being conftown by both role AND play.
It's not Toogeloo per the reasons I gave above, of Toogeloo being instrumental in the town's victories thusfar.
It's not Bell per this being Bell's town meta.

Which means the strongman, if Sakura Hana's theory is correct, is precisely within {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}; yes, this means that the strongman pool is identical to the scum roleblocker pool, just missing from it StD.

Initially, I thought that meant there was a decent chance that per the implications given, {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} would be our precise scumteam.

However, then I did some extra digging. I'll cover that below, though, after I lay out more of the reasons why Mystic Bears is scum here.

2:

As Scum as Scum Interactions Get

Mystic Bears never voted ANY of {STD, RealCheeks, WhemeStar} yesterday. They defended both WhemeStar AND Elsa Jay. And it gets worse.
Mystic Bears has literally defended

all three

flipped scum.
On D1, I point you to this defense of SirCakez by Mystic Bears, followed by THIS defense of SirCakez made by Mystic Bears, followed by a THIRD defense of SirCakez made by Mystic Bears, with this fourth glorious borderline-TMI of a defense of Cakez by Mystic Bears.

Mystic Bears defended WhemeStar as early back as here, and while in the interim was always posting that Wheme was in the poe (see below for why that in of itself is a damning read progression), never voted Wheme, until eventually, for no reason, doubled down on WhemeStar being town when WhemeStar began to be threatened.

It's not as visible with a control-F of 'wheme', but the slot defended WhemeStar all of D5, too, which y'all should remember.

It gets juicier.

Here we get to Mystic Bears defending Elsa Jay. Mystic Bear's defense of Elsa Jay continues here. Mystic Bears continues to defend Elsa Jay here. And Mystic Bears actually backs that Elsa Jay defense up even. But you don't get stronger defense of scum than this in Mystic Bear's defense of Elsa Jay. But there's more; here's another Mystic Bears defense of Elsa Jay...
...Which also is a post that shows why the defense of WhemeStar is so scum-indicative--look at the treatment of WhemeStar when Elsa Jay was threatened and WhemeStar was under no threat, compared to the treatment of WhemeStar when WhemeStar was under threat (shown above) because we already eliminated Elsa Jay by that point. Here is another hard-defense of Elsa Jay from Mystic Bears that ALSO shows the treatment of WhemeStar before WhemeStar was under pressure (willingness to eliminate him), in contrast to how they treated him AFTER he was at risk of being eliminated (suddenly, inexplicably for no apparent reason, he's suddenly town, in a reversal of the prior read).

And more than that? Mystic Bears has also been voting for the

counterwagons

to the flipped scum. On D5, Mystic Bears didn't vote, but on D4, Mystic Bears voted AA9 instead of WhemeStar.
They also voted Mandelbrot instead of either STD or RealCheeks.
They voted Tomorrow Corporation instead of Elsa Jay.

This post basically feels like a confession, of being scum with both Elsa and Wheme. You might think "Noraa wouldn't do that", but actually, Noraa as scum can and has done precisely this before, admitting to being scum with scum in a way that frames it as being pseudo-sarcastic-eyerolley.

Which is a good segue into my next point:

3:

Noraa is in her scum meta.

This isn't one that I really have evidence to show as it's just the kind of thing that if you know, you know. If you are familiar with Noraa's scum meta, you should know that this is it.

4:

Bonus: SirCakez

I want you to take a good, long look at this post. Go ahead and TRY to tell me it's not SirCakez TMI-distancing/bussing the slot. (I'll cover more on SirCakez below.)

Given all of this.

Even if it weren't for the role POE. Even if you discarded all reads, all reasons for those roles.

I'd vote Mystic Bears just on merit of them being scum.

So whoever is their scum partner, I think they're just scum right now.

Why Save the Dragons is the Most Likely Scum Partner

:

1:

Why I think RealCheeks is town

RealCheeks is the opposite of Mystic Bears--whereas Mystic Bears defended all three scum, throughout RealCheeks's iso, RealCheeks has consistently pushed all three scum. Not just distancing, either--voting scum, even on days when scum wasn't eliminated, even when there were other viable town options to vote.

I will admit; RealCheeks did hard-locked Mystic Bears as town early and often. I'm a bit too lazy to get all the links there.
However, critically, unlike STD who had that read remain the same (see below for that)...by here, RealCheeks has started to sus out Mystic Bears. Which continued here.
While the read then goes back and forth with it being townish, they slide Mystic Bears back to maybe scum here. And have shown continuous willingness to vote there, even stating "go ahead and eliminate us, but after you do, immediately flip Mystic Bears".

If they're scum they basically for the entire game bussed their entire team. While it's not IMPOSSIBLE, bussing literally ALL FOUR partners seems incredibly improbable, and that's why I think RealCheeks is just town here, in spite of the strongman/rb poe being what it is.

2:

The 'secret' scum breadcrumb strat?

STD and Mystic Bears have breadcrumbed being a mystical town PR in basically the same exact way. I was too lazy to do the links to this, but both of them claimed PRs vaguely in a mystical fashion suggesting that they are some sort of town power role that absolutely shouldn't be forced to claim early.

Given how badly SirCakez and Elsa Jay botched their claims, this seems like a deliberate strategy to avoid claiming for as long as possible to make their claims be as good as they possibly can be.

3:

Defense of Scum

STD did defend Wheme back here. Admittedly STD voted Wheme yesterday, but STD had no mention of Cakez pre-guilty and defended Elsa the entire game. (I was too lazy to grab all the Elsa Jay defense links but y'all should remember this as Elsa Jay as town was one of STD's most insistent reads.)

If we take for a given that Mystic Bears is going to flip scum though (I realize this is speculative but seems pretty damn certain),
STD did defend Mystic Bears here.
STD was also defending Mystic Bears here.
This is an explanation of STD's defense of Mystic Bears.
STD called Flea (half of Mystic Bears) town early too.
And STD explained the townread on Mystic Bears here.
There's a mention of Mystic Bears being town here from STD too.
And there was another Mystic Bears-town here from STD.

So STD defended both Elsa hard and Mystic Bears hard. (Admittedly, this loses validity if MB doesn't flip scum but given how sure I am on MB being scum...)

All in all, STD has defended 1 of the flipped scum hardcore, 1 of the flipped scum softly, has zero mentions of the third flipped scum, and has hard-defended a suspected fourth scum.

In contrast, RealCheeks has attacked all three of the flipped scum, not just distancing but actively voting and strongly advocating for their deaths, while also having what appears to be a real actual organic read progression on the suspected fourth scum going from town to scum to town to scum in a way that isn't buddy-indicative to me.

4:

Bonus SirCakez

We've got the good ol' SirCakez bussing/distancing strat for evidence of this. STD was a last-minute addition to his scumreads. I called it out at the time as thinking STD-SirCakez there was scum-scum theater and I agree with past-me's reasons.

Notably, while Mystic Bears was absent from that later scum pool (thus was not SirCakez'd), I would like to again point out this earlier post I feel is damning.

So, uhhh...yeah. I legit think it might just be Mystic Bears + STD.

VOTE: Mystic Bears

You could've just hacked into my account and voted for me.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: Join Raid

[Save The Dragons]

he'll flip rb

...guess not

VOTE: Join raid

VOTE: Join raid

These two gumboots are already on it.
~C

i'll have you know my boots are not gummy

and i'm not leaving this raid just like last time

[Qrow and Raven]

You lied about being a college student I think when I first met you? Or you age was different, but it isn't a serious thing. Lots of people lie about their ages on the internet.

Hey Bell, this post makes me a bit uncomfortable. If you’re referring to Death Curse? I don’t recall Noraa actually saying that? I did think that too att as well. I’m sure you mean nothing by this but I would prefer to keep anything involving rl stuff out of the game please.

~Raven

[Qrow and Raven]

Thought on 3 scum left to make number of game days more reasonable with only 1 NK per night? Oh also... why did scum have a body guard? O_o
~C

It’s the first time I’ve ever seen one. Only thing could beat would possibly be a scum AC.

~R

[Dwlee99]

I think it gives an action to a tracker so it could be fake claimed I guess