Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Qrow and Raven]

I still lowkey think the strongman PoE is wrong and I'm a sicker for people claiming they're town. What if it's just Q+R and STD?
~C

Why does scum!us prefer Wheme yesterday then to both you and StD? Obvious answer (to anyone bothering to read my posts) : I had valid reasons to sr him and I still can’t say because part of it is Oog.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I kinda think MB is town but what do I know

Bears is playing differently here than in both Death Curse and Pooky v FL. In that versus game, Noraa hardbussed their entire team pretty much. I’m also a bit concerned because Mastina was locked convinced on VFP!scum in OMB and he wound up flipping town, so if they’re scum here, they’ve majorly switched up their scum meta.

~R

[Dwlee99]

Nancy are you parroting me?

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 6.01

Mystic Bears (3):

Mandelbrot, mastina, Tomorrow Corporation

RealCheeks (1):

Dwlee99

Not Voting:

Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Save The Dragons, Qrow and Raven, Toogeloo, tictac, Bell

With

11

remaining,

6

votes to eliminate

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-23 20:13:58)

raid

Raid Queue - Titan

Success bonus for raid completion:

Gains bulletproof for one night

Queue:

1. Save The Dragons
   
2. Dwlee99
   
3. Toogeloo
   
4. Qrow and Raven
   
5. Mandelbrot
   
6. Bell
   
7. mastina
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

Realm Danger Level: 1

[Qrow and Raven]

What's your 25%

Honestly?

That the rb/strongman theory spec is wrong and that the last scum is just a player who isn't cleared by play. (I'm pretty damn sure that RealCheeks is just town here by play.)

Given MB scum and theoretically not-you as scum...

Toogeloo is cleared by play;
Mandelbrot is cleared by play;
Bell is cleared by play;
Qrow and Raven is pretty damn cleared by play;
RealCheeks is pretty damn cleared by play;

That leaves a not-cleared-by-play pool of {Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.
From there, Tomorrow Corporation would be the least likely due to being the name that scum tried to force through instead of Elsa Jay, so, to give the answer you're looking for,

The 25% remaining where you're not scum is like 20% Dwlee, 5% tictac.

But I still have the 75% on you being scum and once I give a dump of last night's note I will show why.

I think rb may possibly have been an X shot because why wouldn’t you have been roleblocked?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: RealCheeks

I might sheep this. She was also defending Mystic Bears.

Actually, not as much as you'd think. Will explain this in a bit.

What's the PoE, Panda?

Well, by the rb/strongman logic, it'd be precisely:
{RealCheeks, Mystic Bears} for the strongman and {RealCheeks, Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons} for the roleblocker.
And RealCheeks is basically hard-cleared by play ESPECIALLY with a Mystic Bears scumflip.

If we're going by slots being town by play, I'd say the pool is a bit wider, but not by much, per 5773;
With Toogeloo, Mandelbrot, Bell, Qrow and Raven, and RealCheeks all town by play, that leaves a POE pool of,
{Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

(Again, getting caught up in the thread properly then will be posting the PT content.)

I’ ve been sr tictac from the day they’ve been working overtime to try to get us miselimed. I just gave up on that because no one was listening to me.

I have reasons to think it isn’t TC though, which I don’t want to reveal just yet.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I think the PoE by play reads I'm worried about the most are q&r and bell. I'm also worried the scum team is bigger than we think/noone has really thought about the bp rewards and scum bodyguard. Pretty sure the whole game will collapse if MB is town but at least we made friends along the way ^.^
~C

Sure Cheeky, I hardbussed my buddy after two of my presumed “buddies” already died.

That theory is almost as good as me trying to take the fall for Elsa.

I love getting trolled, well not really.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I think you can pretty safely discount TC as the counterwagon to Elsa, which points more at Dwlee than STD to be honest since Dwlee was pretty insistent on eliminating TC and AA9 over Elsa and Wheme.
~C

I think TC is town for other reasons.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

@mastina not mad about raid failing, tho did get super paranoid when it felt like u were avoiding the test.

You shouldn't be paranoid about that.

She stated clearly that she wanted to save her role for today, yesterday.

- House

+1

It was that stupid test that wound up causing us to fail that raid.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

So um...there are some contradictions we've noticed concerning mastina. Like this one

6 players, to contain the strongman and the roleblocker.

D2 (strong-willed) Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Romance
   
7. tictac
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The scum roleblocker basically cannot be among these names, because if the scum roleblocker were among these names, there was no need to make the raid fail in the first place, and in fact, making it fail would be incredibly detrimental. Which means that the roleblocker cannot* be Dwlee99, tictac, or Tomorrow Corporation.
(*Granted, this is where the 25% on STD not being scum comes from; if Elsa made the raid fail in spite of how detrimental doing so was to the scum, Dwlee, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation would all theoretically be possible to be scum.)

So the possibilities for the scum roleblocker are:
{Save the Dragons, RealCheeks, Mystic Bears}.
Per the town players being town by play, and the raid poe theory, that means one of those three MUST* be the scum roleblocker.
(*see above)

So if RC is in the pool of names that can't contain the roleblocker, why did you put them in roleblocker pool anyway?

And there is this one:

Yo, at work, so can't deal with PMS and such, or really respond to stuff in the thread at all, but:

I REALLY wanna save the shot for tomorrow.

Meaning, that right now, an unfilled raid will fail.

I just couldn't submit given work.

And what's up with that?

- Victorine

I seriously can’t believe our slot got accused of dissonance.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I'd find it super funny if Mastina typed that all up and then MB flips town a la Bingle in MBOS.

I'm confused why I'm still in people's poes here

Can you link that game for me?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

Don’t you have any thoughts about who should be on/not on that raid?

~R

[Mystic Bears]

VOTE: Mystic Bears

You could've just hacked into my account and voted for me.

Now thats a wall, I'll haev a read in a bit.

[Mystic Bears]

VOTE: Mystic Bears

You could've just hacked into my account and voted for me.

Now thats a wall, I'll haev a read in a bit.

-Fleeeea

[Qrow and Raven]

Nancy are you parroting me?

No.

[Mystic Bears]

So 2.5 questions mastina?

Do you really think I'd let myself be caught mechanically? This goes back to if I'm scum, my team haven't been listening to me. so subquestion there is do you really think I'd hang around in a game again when I'm getting mechanically screwed by my team?

Do you really think me and Noraa would be so... Naive? as to just openwolf and guard like that? Given I've been fairly out of the game do you not think it's probable that as we've converged on our reads we just have some shockingly bad reads?

-F

[RealCheeks]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

Don’t you have any thoughts about who should be on/not on that raid?

~R

Well if it were up to me, we would be on the raid. Since the strongman has no shots left, assuming they started as 1x, this raid if successful will force scum to shoot outside the raid in the remaining 3 names. StD refusing to get off the raid again is pretty much a scum claim because scum want to give themselves a bigger town pool to shoot in. Like if the team is exactly StD/Dwlee and we leave them off the raid then theoretically there would be no NK. If one of the two is scum - one will be the NK and it resolves that slot for us instead of having to eliminate them, we can then use an elimination to check the other.

If you omit us, and the raid succeeds then scum will be forced to kill us if the other person outside the raid is scum, which again saves town a flip.
~C

[RealCheeks]

If we have 2 town outside the raid then you know that both scum are on the raid.
~C

[Save The Dragons]

StD refusing to get off the raid again is pretty much a scum claim

[RealCheeks]

Dude if you're a PR you need to claim, if not you need to get off the raid to give town a better chance of winning.
~C

[Save The Dragons]

no

[RealCheeks]

I rest my case. No further questions your honour.
~C

[Save The Dragons]

definitely not claiming today, definitely not getting off the raid. i would like the BP.

[Save The Dragons]

try harder

[RealCheeks]

Nothing you or MB can claim will progress town win at this point if kept hidden. One of you/dwlee need to get off otherwise it wastes the opportunity for town to use the info from the raid and NK.
~C