Mini 2251: Triplicate! GAME OVER!

[T3]

VOTE: Dunnstral

And that's Game 1!

Had me worried for a bit there, but GG everyone.

f

[T3]

Alright, so here is my preference for how Game 2 goes now.

Dunnstral is the best elimination choice here. Between him and Amy, I think he's much more likely to flip red, and Demon Lord is not only a very scary ability for scum to have, it messes with my wagon results. And I know I'm more than likely dead tonight, but on the off chance scum keeps me alive to frame me, I'd like to have as useful results as possible.

To that end, the vote order on Dunn should look like this:
mastina > Titus > T3 > House OR Alyssa > Amy

	1 change	2 changes	3 changes	4 changes
Dunnstral Scum	Wagon Town	Titus Scum	House/Alyssa Scum*	Titus AND House/Alyssa Scum*
Dunnstral Town	Impossible	Amy Scum	Titus Scum AND (Amy AND House/Alyssa Scum* OR Amy Scum)	Titus AND House/Alyssa Scum*

*Applies to whichever of House/Alyssa voted in the wagon

This does assume that Dunnstral was both truthful and accurate when claiming Demon Lord is unaligned, but structuring the wagon in this way gives us at least one confirmed scum to eliminate the following day, if I get to share my result.

If I die, I die, but if I live the game is pretty much solved.

sure

[Titus]

That leaves scum being forced to kill me in your scenario House.

A T3 kill doesn't work because that confirms RR as town, thanks to Cheeky's result.

[Titus]

T3 you're up to vote.

[House]

With a claim like that, his continued existence tomorrow with a dead body popping up overnight would put him at the top of my scumreads, tbh.

Ok. Legit doesn't matter if we hit scum Dunn today and RR claims blocked.

I'll still scumread him even if he claims roleblocked, tbh.

Easy thing for scum to claim a role that can't be verified.

[House]

In what world does a town investigative claim without useful information?

Was he at E-1 when he claimed?

I don't trust his cock and bull story.

[T3]

T3 you're up to vote.

VOTE: dunn

[House]

*shrug*

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Radical Rat]

In what world does a town investigative claim without useful information?

Was he at E-1 when he claimed?

I don't trust his cock and bull story.

I kinda think having a guaranteed scum 1v1 is useful information.

[Radical Rat]

My continued life is very strong evidence that A50/Titus are Town here.

I claimed UB in the Game 1 scum thread fairly early on. While obviously they couldn't have fully explained their reasoning, I would expect a scum Titus/A50 to insist on killing me before I got any results.

Remind me... what useful results have you gotten?

Four alignment changes on the Dwlee wagon. Which is only possible if exactly one of Dunn/Amy is scum.

The fuck you mean, "alignment changes"?

The way Cheeky's (and now my) role works is that we pick a wagon that existed at the end of the previous day and receive a result with how many times a vote was of a different alignment than the previous vote.

Town > Town > Scum would be 1, Town > Scum > Town would be 2, and so forth.

Cheeky checked the wagon on Meg, and received a result of 4.
She died N2, so no result there, but I inherit her role.
I checked the Dwlee wagon, and received a result of 4.

Given Cheeky's result, and all the other claims in play, my result is only possible if exactly one of Dunn/Amy is scum.

[Titus]

In what world does a town investigative claim without useful information?

Was he at E-1 when he claimed?

I don't trust his cock and bull story.

The interesting thing is that it doesn't have to be trusted.

Scum Dunn world

RR scum cannot exist because it invalidates Cheeky's result. T3 and RR share an alignment and 4 scum is too many with a 3p.

So that makes Amy T3 RR and I conftown with one scum in you/Alyssa. Mastina is still 3p. Scum lose this setup.

Town Dunn World

It's either RR plus T3 or Amy plus Alyssa or House.
Scum can't shoot T3 without confirming RR as town. So that means I'll be shot as the only non pooled person.

-----RR result, I live
If RR claims a result, then he narrows the game further by confirming either Alyssa or House as conftown. Mastina in the game. This means RR + T3 versus Amy plus 1 of Alyssa/House.

mastina + the other of house/Alyssa and I are conftown. Mastina likely townsides as her wincon has yet to be met.

If we flip RR in that scenario, we confirm the team is either RR plus T3 or Amy plus House or Alyssa.

My survival buys us the miselimination to confirm the game.

-----I live, RR blocked

RR + T3 versus Amy plus House or Alyssa

Flip RR. If RR scum, then T3 concede.
Flip RR. If town, scum shoot T3.
Amy flipped as confscum. Scum shoots me.
House versus Alyssa --- mastina is tiebreaker.

Flip Amy. If town, scum shoot me. Flip RR plus T3 as confscum.
Flip Amy. If scum, then Alyssa or House. T3 and RR conftown. Scum lose.

If I live, the game is over for the scumteam.

.

---
If I fail to live and RR gets a result, then it's

RR + T3 v Amy plus one of House/Alyssa
mastina and the other of House/Alyssa must agree.

Then mastina holds ultimate tiebreaker.

------
If there is no protective role or strongman exists and RR fails to get a result, then we enter

RR + T3 versus Amy and one of House/Alyssa.
mastina serves as a tiebreaker. Even if House and Alyssa agree, they still need mastina.

mastina and the town in house/alyssa must agree.

The only difference in these two scenarios is that we don't know who is town.

[Titus]

Now we just need Amy to hammer.

[Titus]

If I live, we flip Amy tomorrow.

[Titus]

Taking this further, let's say scum shoot RR in town Dunn world (why and how?), they confirm Amy scum. They confirm the last scum is in Alyssa/House.

We get a 50/50.

[mastina]

god RR was so transparently scum

I mean.

They were my preferred vote for a reason.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I feel like it should've also been obvious Titus was scum but the exact thought process leading to it escapes me

shrug

[Titus]

god RR was so transparently scum

I mean.

They were my preferred vote for a reason.

Teehee. Titus the tank ftw.

[Titus]

There's a reason I voted when I did. It would have been correct play to force RR to vote first as he was under even more suspicion than me.

[mastina]

RR is legit UB. Please don't eliminate them.

This was never really in question IMO, but there is a thing which keeps RR from being conftown:

Themes aren't bound by the same rules as Normals.

In a Normal, a UB must be the same alignment of the role to inherit it.

But, less so for themes, which can be "first PR" rather than "first PR of your alignment".

After all, RR loses very little from being a truthfully claiming UB if it still nets them towncred and a free ticket to push for a scum-favored gamestate.

If they're town, scum will need to deal with them, so that's why I am not pushing them today, but until RR flips town, I'll remain skeptical, so as to not lose 2/3 games, thank you very much.

[mastina]

A Win Condition has been achieved!

CheekyTeeky, Mafia Rolecop, has survived to the endgame and won.
Radical Rat, Mafia Goon, has survived to the endgame and won.
Titus, Mafia Simple-Checker, has survived to the endgame and won.
T3, Rolecop Finder, has been endgamed!
Lady Chloe, VT, has been endgamed!
Dwlee99, VT, has been endgamed!

For the record: that setup's insanely scumsided.

We're talking upwards of 75+% when the cutoff is 60%. Town CAN win it, but legitimately won't like 80% of the time because the scum are WAY too strong and the town too weak.

I get that 2/3 of the town PRS flipped in the first two game phases, but the death of town PRS was inevitable when the scum had THREE methods of checking for PRS. (The nightkill is the third.)

Will be back after I get work stuff done.

[mastina]

My continued life is very strong evidence that A50/Titus are Town here.

I claimed UB in the Game 1 scum thread fairly early on. While obviously they couldn't have fully explained their reasoning, I would expect a scum Titus/A50 to insist on killing me before I got any results.

While this is true if you are town, scum are generally disinclined from killing scum.

Also, a UB only becomes a threat after a PR dies. So you living wasn't a town indicator for Titus until this day phase.

[mastina]

BTW Titus is wrong on T3/RR.

RR can be scum even with T3 town.

[Titus]

Disagree mastina. We can talk after B.

[mastina]

BTW Titus is wrong on T3/RR.

RR can be scum even with T3 town.

To explain:
We know that there's an alignment change after CheekyTeeky.

We do NOT know WHERE it is.

If it's immediately after Cheeky, then both T3 and RR are scum.
If it's after T3, then RR is scum.
It's only if it's after RR that both T3 and RR are town.

We know that one of the three above is correct.
We do NOT know which.

T3 flipping scum condemns RR as the last scum…
…But T3 flipping town says NOTHING about RRs alignment.
RR flipping town hardclears T3…
…But RR flipping scum says NOTHING about T3s alignment.

[Radical Rat]

BTW Titus is wrong on T3/RR.

RR can be scum even with T3 town.

This is correct. I didn't want to point it out in case scum ALSO thought the way Titus did, but yeah if I'm Town T3 has to be, and if T3 is scum I have to be, but it's at least mechanically possible that T3 is Town and I'm Scum. It's just not actually the case here.