I had a lot of time off so I went through quite a few scenarios following a massclaim. An assumption is made that all Town tells the truth.
If you make a matrix with all possible setup specs on one axis and all possible scum claims on the other axis, you get 72 scenarios. Not all scenarios are equally likely (duh).
However, you can only get 25 unique sets of logical claims. If we went down a massclaim path, these would require further analysis to design an optimal decision strategy.
20 of the 25 sets (80%) give us immediate information that make traditional scumhunting easier.
In a
perfect
town world where scum must claim first AND claim suboptimally, town's average winrate is AT LEAST 93.5% based on pure mechanical play. Note that whether scum has Doc or RB does not matter here.
I have only tested 24 scenarios (33% of all scenarios), but so far I have found 8 guaranteed wins (33% of tested scenarios). In the worst case of these scenarios (the last one I tested), town wins only 48.8% of the time (based on mechanics alone).
I stopped testing to get some feedback whether I should keep going with this or not. There are chances for guaranteed wins, but there are also chances for poor winrate. Of course, this only assumes purely mechanical play. If I finished testing all possible scenarios, a more robust analysis of overall winrate can be done. But I don't want to do all that work if A) people figure the odds are already great and we should massclaim now, or B) the chance of bad odds is already terrible and it would never be worth the risk.
Part of the appeal of this setup is going to be watching chain reactions of people blowing up and mass casualties, so maths aside I would lean against a full claim here.
In post 54, ɀefiend wrote:I had a lot of time off so I went through quite a few scenarios following a massclaim. An assumption is made that all Town tells the truth.
If you make a matrix with all possible setup specs on one axis and all possible scum claims on the other axis, you get 72 scenarios. Not all scenarios are equally likely (duh).
However, you can only get 25 unique sets of logical claims. If we went down a massclaim path, these would require further analysis to design an optimal decision strategy.
20 of the 25 sets (80%) give us immediate information that make traditional scumhunting easier.
In a
perfect
town world where scum must claim first AND claim suboptimally, town's average winrate is AT LEAST 93.5% based on pure mechanical play. Note that whether scum has Doc or RB does not matter here.
I have only tested 24 scenarios (33% of all scenarios), but so far I have found 8 guaranteed wins (33% of tested scenarios). In the worst case of these scenarios (the last one I tested), town wins only 48.8% of the time (based on mechanics alone).
I stopped testing to get some feedback whether I should keep going with this or not. There are chances for guaranteed wins, but there are also chances for poor winrate. Of course, this only assumes purely mechanical play. If I finished testing all possible scenarios, a more robust analysis of overall winrate can be done. But I don't want to do all that work if A) people figure the odds are already great and we should massclaim now, or B) the chance of bad odds is already terrible and it would never be worth the risk.
I am absolutely against a massclaim. It didn't work last time, as theres a randomisation factor.
Bombs absolutely should not claim.
-- Or here if you just wanna see fae/faer used in context.
