Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[implosion]

I feel VP is generally spouting sensible analysis. As discussed earlier that doesn't automatically make him town because scum at the gate have every incentive to give sensible analysis. But I do also think he's town independently of how much I agree with his analysis, I think.

[implosion]

I also increasingly think Luke is the best vote in Keep. I feel like Aristeia's posting as a whole is some amount of fluff but like, a huge bulk of asking people leading questions rather than giving real original analysis or like, actual trying to figure out who is mafia. There are so many details of Luke's play that I feel would just be very difficult to emulate to the degree he has been if he is scum. 896/897 show a continuity in his train of thought. 881 is analysis that scum would have to go out of their way to think "I should fake what I would have been thinking during the break if I were town" and then do that accurately. Like, these things are not impossible but I feel like it would be fairly rare to see them emulated to the degree that I think they'd have to be if he's scum.

[implosion]

I could conceivably be convinced that Pavowski is a better vote but I don't know if anyone is really making that argument.

[Aristeia]

I feel VP is generally spouting sensible analysis. As discussed earlier that doesn't automatically make him town because scum at the gate have every incentive to give sensible analysis. But I do also think he's town independently of how much I agree with his analysis, I think.

What's the biggest reason you think VPB is town?

[implosion]

I feel like VP's solve explains the swap pretty easily as well. The scum plan is something like swap me with DArby, and then all Aristeia needs to do is look town to Luke, because Pavowski's slot is basically poisoned. It's like it's inevitable that it will never be voted for. So all Aristeia needs to do is convince Luke she's town, because the two of them were mutually townreading each other and Luke had indicated willingness to just be the one who votes in Keep rather than being the one voted for. And then Aristeia can just, say she's happy to vote luke but never actually do that before luke votes her. Meanwhile in Wall, I'm being shoved into a place with Toog and nQ, two of the few people in the player list who had not yet indicated a townread on me. And even if they both buy I'm town I still have to decide between them (of course this idea works regardless of which of them is scum, I just think nQ has been town independently of this argument).

It all seems generally fairly coherent.

[implosion]

I guess this is also all independent of which of VP/imag is town.

My reasons for thinking VP is town are the thing that feels most to me like I'm confirmation biasing myself. But it's mostly the way he's presenting arguments/interacting with the thread. It's not all that tangible. And there is still the dumbtell thing that I think is nontrivial. I can't really get much of a read on imaginality in isolation or at least haven't been able to at this point today.

[Aristeia]

I'm happy to vote for Luke if Tanner approves of it.

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

[implosion]

Oh one early thing is I liked VP's justification and thought process on his early townread of me around my talking about the scum PT in my previous game. Not a huge thing on its own though.

[implosion]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Why? Do you disagree with my argument that scum have every reason to bus in this setup?

[implosion]

And if you're specifically worried that I am scum trying to influence another game I'm happy to flip wall first generally. I mean, one advantage of flipping wall is that there's definitely the least happening from the people here >_>

Though perhaps that will change when Toog gets replaced.

[Aristeia]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Why? Do you disagree with my argument that scum have every reason to bus in this setup?

You don't need to worry about this if Luke is town.

[implosion]

Oh another thing that makes me feel Luke is town is his repeated assertions of "selfishly, I want ____" regarding going to keep and now keep being later to resolve. It feels so far from how at least I personally would be thinking about the game as scum.

[implosion]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Why? Do you disagree with my argument that scum have every reason to bus in this setup?

You don't need to worry about this if Luke is town.

...okay??

[implosion]

Ari, what precisely are your current reads in each area and how confident they each are?

[Aristeia]

so we are agreed?

[Aristeia]

Ari, what precisely are your current reads in each area and how confident they each are?

I'm around:

Town:

NQ, Luke
Imaginality
Implosion
Toogeloo, VPB, Pavo

Scum

[Aristeia]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Why? Do you disagree with my argument that scum have every reason to bus in this setup?

Bussing vs not bussing is simply a wifom argument

[Aristeia]

I feel like Aristeia's posting as a whole is some amount of fluff but like, a huge bulk of asking people leading questions rather than giving real original analysis or like, actual trying to figure out who is mafia.

Which question are you talking about?

[VP Baltar]

What makes NQ your top town read? Why is implosion low?

None of your reads have reasons.

[Aristeia]

NQ's depth of thought and posting feel much more pure/townie than when he was scum. I'm not picking up any of the performative stuff he did during Squid Game.

Implosion hasn't really impressed outside of the early mech analysis, I still have him rated as higher than Toogeloo which really is the only thing that matters regarding the Wall.

He feels like he's been just "fine" in terms of pushing the status quo which is somewhat concerning if the status quo is wrong, which is why I'd like to kill him if Lukewarm flips scum.

His initial reaction to me didn't feel right.

[Aristeia]

It's kind of weird for him to say that he thinks I'm scum who is performatively trying to pocket Lukewarm and never will vote Lukewarm.

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.

[Aristeia]

Like it's not just one of his beliefs that has to be wrong for him to react negatively to my offer, he has to be wrong on both his strongest townread AND his strongest scumread in the keep for it to blow up in his face and with how confidently he stated his reads in pushing for Luke over me I just don't see how he is suddenly backpedaling and making excuses.

[Aristeia]

Also if Lukewarm is scum, Implosion switching out of Keep makes very little sense with how much Implosion was townreading Lukewarm.

If Implo is town, why not let Implo stay in the keep and vote for Lukewarm to win? Why move a townread player like Implo into wall and move a limbait player like Pavo which is a poisoned slot into the Keep instead? The scum team would have to be actively throwing and worsening their chances of winning at BOTH locations.

[Aristeia]

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

I organized a badass sort. Doesn't get more obvtown than that.

Can you explain this in more detail please?

also you didn't respond to this so I am reposting it.

Please let me know how your sort is "pro-town" motivated.

[implosion]

It's kind of weird for him to say that he thinks I'm scum who is performatively trying to pocket Lukewarm and never will vote Lukewarm.

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.

I did not "fire back" with this in the way you're describing. Scum having reason to bus, and your alignment, were two completely different parts of the discussion. Don't conflate them.

You saying "I want implo to die if Luke flips scum" in that context, to me, read as you saying that if Luke flips scum it would be reason to think I'm scum based on pushing him to be voted when I think that simply isn't how this setup works, especially given that Tanner's current preference was to resolve wall before keep. Correlating us in that way mathematically implies that you'd think Luke would be more likely to be scum (at least a little bit) if I flipped scum, so... you see the problem here, hopefully, given that Wall is probably being voted first.

And regarding your stated willingness to vote Luke: words are not actions. And it's not like you have any recourse if you're scum and Tanner tells you to vote Luke.