Newbie 2086 - Reaction GIFs | End!

[Cape90]

I apologize for the inactivity, I was kinda tinfoiling catboi early on for jumping straight away into the "I am fine" camp which is not what notscince did and notsci kept pushing me and catboi retracted the suspicion as early as 44. I pressed on this as early as 182 on catboi. Like 60 felt icky to me as well, mostly because I heavily disagreed. I thought that 109 at the bottom looked insecure.

Right now my mental is shifting again back to Dunn because at least in the game that I saw catboi link not to long ago where Dunn was town and catboi was scum, Dunn was much more active consistently, meanwhile Dunn over here when he is in a critical spot just posts 735 and disappears from the realm of reality, not the first time Dunn made a single post then left. It seems unlike them in the town game that catboi linked. Catboi in the scum game they linked kinda does this similar thing that I do in scum games where they would do this whole quotewall thing on a player and give like a sentence or so on their read on the player based on the quotes they pulled up (this is based on the game in 725 and no it isn't the post they linked).

[butterchurn]

Can you explain to me what things dunn posted you thought were insightful/made sense?

Sure. His first post 221 didn't particularly say anything new, but I agreed with it, and the reasoning seemed fine. 222 was something that I hadn't noticed but immediately made sense to me, so that's probably what I was calling insightful. 378 was pretty much all things I agreed with, along with 379. In the time between 221/222 and 378/379, I think his content was quite weak, and I believe I thought so at the time as well. But up to this point, even now, nothing that he says reads as particularly scummy to me. It's all just reasonable, fairly logical statements, and most of them followed similar trains of thoughts to what I had. I tend to be inclined to townlean for that, although perhaps I should be more wary of a pattern of weak content than I was (and, now in the perspective of looking at him as mafia, I think they are the kind of statements that are easy to make as scum). Even after that, 420 and 421 are good points as well. The first post that really felt off to me at the time was 473, which I questioned him on. After that I was watching him more closely, although I don't think the posts between that and the end of day activity pushed the needle much either direction, since there wasn't much to them. I had him as my second choice after my void vote because after I stopped tunneling on Greeting, I was attempting to refocus on the low-content posters that I had mostly been giving a pass to, and felt like the weak content both of void and Dunn were enough at that point to be worth a vote, especially since I was doubting my reads on the higher-content posters. I also thought he was a pretty likely partner for void.

[Dunnstral]

I'm not always active consistently as town

[butterchurn]

I'm not always active consistently as town

Right now it doesn't even feel like you're trying. Who do you think is catboi's partner?

[Cape90]

In a game about reaction GIFs, I have to say Dunn, your anti-spew is boring.

[Cape90]

I don't think cross-bussing in ELO is nearly as invalid a tactic as you believe it to be. (thousands of chat games' worth of experience suggests otherwise)

I would say chat games don't exactly super translate to this format. Plus I feel like both of you could easily try to push zefiend or myself so

I think it's an entirely valid move strategically but wouldn't try it given what other people's reads were.

I get it is a valid strategy, but right now as the gamestate is, it feels extremely silly right now in a game where only town has died, it is a more understandable strategy in a bigger game IMO rather then a 2 scum game

[Cape90]

Personally, I already think one of you or dunn is scum, so I'm going to continue as if the game isn't lost.

I like the rest of this post, but I really don't know why you just felt the need to bring this up when it seemed pretty obvious even at that point, even if zefiend is mafia, like if I was mafia with zefiend, I could have literally arranged a time with ze to have this hammered by now. From your POV if you are town and both Dunn/catboi were innocent, this would mean the mafia would be both me/zefiend, which IMO I think was a valid world given I was kinda pushing zefeind day 1, then backed off, then have hardly talked about him today, bleh, anyway, this is why I bring this up.

[butterchurn]

It was just a response to catboi saying that he would explain later if the game wasn't lost. I didn't particularly feel like waiting.

[butterchurn]

Or are you saying I shouldn't have ruled out a team of you/zefiend already?

[Dunnstral]

I'm not always active consistently as town

Right now it doesn't even feel like you're trying. Who do you think is catboi's partner?

I'm leaning toward zefiend, I think that you look unaligned and cape has waffled in a convincing way this day phase

[catboi]

Dunn being extremely selective in his responses here is essentially a scumclaim, yes

[catboi]

I *wish* there was more to read into from zefiend...as it is it's been over a day since he posted. I had this post drafted but wanted to wait for butterchurn to respond to my questioning first and possibly for zefiend to talk a bit more.

That was terrible... I can't even.

I think saying "at least one mafia must be experienced" is a hollow conclusion at best and just WIFOM at worst. If I think about potential scumteams, all of them include someone with forum/chat experience.

Like, if we can rule out VOID+butterchurn, that's great, but we're still standing around like Spidermen pointing at each other.

Right now, I think catboi is coasting, and I also disagree with them. I think both Greeting or Cape's day entrance could be performative. Feel good about butter. I haven't thought deeply about the "scum!VOID is getting carried by an experienced scum" theory, but I guess it could be by anyone.

And Dunn, I don't have a solid read on at all. Nothing screams town, but nobody lights up as a potential partner either.

There's also this gut wrenching feeling that butter is playing a masterful game and I'm just giving them the benefit of the doubt because their posts are so coherent and thought progression is consistent. But I'm not gonna dwell on that unless I make it to ELLO. Definitely off the table today.

These are teams I can see as being decently possible:

Greeting/Dunnstral - not totally implausible, have pushed at each other a little bit but not so much that

Sure. I haven't given Dunn much thought since they don't say much. But nothing they've said has been scummy to me so I don't think so.

I would only vote VOID or dunn to secure a lim today.

zefiend's commentary on Dunn is very, very limited such that I really couldn't rule them out as partners based on anything in his ISO.

[catboi]

As things are I'd probably go with the notion that my earlier game reads are likely to be better than my ELO reads and say zefiend-scum, with the consideration that any other scumteam would be making a highly suboptimal kill in Greeting. I've seen scumteams make bad kills before, though.

It's not a high level of confidence at all.

[butterchurn]

Speaking of, I'll bring this up again:

Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.

I did not. I said that about Dunn. Very interesting that you mixed those up, though. Since before the kill even came in, I thought that only teams with you on them would kill Greeting. The change in opinion that I've had is that I see it could be possible for Dunn to be scum (specifically, with you), where previously I thought the kill only made sense if he were town.

I didn't push this that hard at the time, but I legitimately think this could be a slip. Especially for someone who puts a good deal of weight on logic, and doesn't usually make honest mistakes of this type. In 596, I said that only teams with zefiend would kill Greeting. In notes about the dunn/zefiend pairing, I said it may require a bus, but it isn't mentioned for the other two possibilities (zefiend/cape and zefiend/catboi). With both of those pairings, I would expect a bus to be very unlikely, and that they would instead try to miselim dunn. In 603, I talk through the possibilities of Dunn being scum, and say that I didn't think a Greeting kill made sense for Dunn teams unless they were planning a bus. In 605, I reconsider my initial analysis a bit and say that I think a dunn/zefiend pairing with a planned bus is more viable than I originally thought. In 614, I continue that line of reasoning. In 629, I talk about the catboi/zefiend pairing and explain why it seems very possible to me, with no mention of a bus. In 641 I explain why I think a Greeting kill most likely comes from a zefiend team, again with no mention of a bus. 656 I talk more about potential catboi motivations for killing Greeting, and then 657 I say I'm even more convinced that the team has to include zefiend.

Meanwhile, zefiend seems to have been reading those posts and only taking in information related to the dunn/zefiend pairing. That was the only case where I talked about planning a bus in relation to a scumteam with zefiend.

[ɀefiend]

Town can't slip, sorry.

596 is the post in question, right? Let's examine.

greeting: kinda weird choice, maybe don't want him leading town anywhere? or they are interpreting differently than me and think that greeting is the clear second choice elim after dunn, rather than zefiend. probably will try to miselim dunn. this in theory pushes me towards dunn, and zefiend towards cape/dunn.

i think it's really unlikely that a team with scum dunn chooses this kill (unless they're planning on a bus)

since I think it actually makes things worse for him despite the initial impression of it helping him (and that intial impression will draw suspicion),

zefiend cape
zefiend catboi

The bolded line is how you preclude a zefiend+dunn team.

"Unless they're planning on a bus"

implies either I'm bussing Dunn or Dunn's bussing me.

Now let's look at your pairings that include me:

dunn zefiend -> kill catboi maybe, hope to miselim greeting? these are the top two suspicions right now, so this is tough for them.

may require a bus

.

zefiend catboi -> this is a win almost guaranteed. kill... anyone? maybe lean cape? miselim dunn, or

catboi bus zefiend

Here you don't explicitly state I could bus catboi. But this pairing falls apart because catboi is currently crossed with Dunn.

zefiend cape -> elim dunn. kill anyone. in this case there's 3 town suspicions on dunn, should be easy for them

And this has fallen apart because obviously the game would be over.

So in the only scenario that hasn't fallen apart FYPOV, you say that 1) a Dunn + zefiend team "kill catboi maybe" and 2) we "may require a bus"

Well, Greeting is dead, and nobody is bussing/being bussed. There's a lot of posturing on all sides.

I don't know whether you thought you could frame a push I would make as a bus, and try to lim me instead (which is what you're trying to do anyway, despite a clear cross today. Why risk hitting your buddy when you can hit a sure townie?)

-OR-

Your "night time analysis" (scum chat) write-up was meant to deliberately paint me as the easiest mislim here.

The fact that you're going back on your earlier statements means I don't think you're working in good faith, i.e. you're scum.

[ɀefiend]

As it stands I am either hammering or giving the hammer to Cape, and I am absolutely not voting before Butter.

[catboi]

This is your first post in days and literally all your attention is devoted to defending yourself and saying nothing whatsoever about the cross?

[catboi]

No idea.

I thought I would be easily pulled towards scum!Dunn but with butter's behavior I am not sure AT ALL anymore.

As the day goes on I must admit I am more comfortable with you hammering but as it stands I will NOT be voting before butter.

I already asked you this, but WHY does butterchurn's affect your view of the cross? Why were you thinking dunn was scum in the first place?

I need

something

to work with and you're making this incredibly hard

[catboi]

Let me parse this in-thread:

If you and Dunn cross, and Cape+butter are scum, then we lose.

If Cape+butter were scum, would they kill Greeting? I find it quite unlikely. Because, they would know me and Greeting are TvT, and Dunn is universally scum-read. Meaning a kill on Catboi is an easy win for them. Counterpoint: if catboi had died and Greeting had lived, would Greeting have reconsidered this? Would I? I don't think I would have, but obviously I don't know how to read Greeting.

Therefore, if I discount Cape+butter, and I discount catboi+Dunn (no reason to consider this today if this is the inevitable cross), then I have:

> catboi+cape
They needed either: (1)Butter to vote me or Dunn (likely), (2)me to vote Butter or Dunn (half likely as of end of D2), or (3) Dunn to vote me or Butter (seems unlikely) - so after a catboi/Dunn cross, (1) and (2) both apply

> catboi+butter
They needed either: (1)Dunn to vote me or Cape (idk), (2)me to vote Dunn or cape (probable), (3)Cape to vote me or Dunn (probable) - so after the cross, (2) and (3) apply

> Dunn+cape
They needed either: (1)Butter to vote me or catboi (idk, half likely?), (2)me to vote butter or catboi (improbable), (3)catboi to vote me or butter (half to full probable?) - so after the cross, NONE apply

> Dunn+butter
They needed either: (1)catboi to vote me or cape (idk, half likely?), (2)me to vote catboi or cape (half likely), (3)cape to vote me or catboi (at least half likely?) - after the cross, NONE to maybe half of one applies.

---

So all this means that based on Greeting kill and current game-state attitude, catboi is most likely to be scum. (if I assume scum killed for easiest/helpful LiLo today)

This is my mind's work. But my gut tells me that I'm horribly, horribly wrong. Catboi, please show me where I'm wrong and prove my gut right.

Like, I don't know. Nominally you can spin your wheels all day on hypothetical stuff like this, I don't find it at all terribly meaningful, but at the end you say your gut says otherwise, it doesn't go anywhere. I can't get a sense of why you're thinking what you're thinking, at all.

[catboi]

To put it another way: do you really think coming back and arguing with butterchurn is the best use of your time right now?

[butterchurn]

Here you don't explicitly state I could bus catboi. But this pairing falls apart because catboi is currently crossed with Dunn.

This makes no sense. Obviously a you/catboi team is mechanically possible from my perspective, just as much as a you/dunn team, or a dunn/cape or a catboi/cape team. If the pairing was catboi/you, I said the most likely course of action for that team was to miselim dunn. And what teams are viable NOW does not have any effect on the words I've already said, so why is this relevant to your statement?

As a reminder, again, here's what you said:

Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.

This is just a false statement. I nowhere said that earlier. I said that for a scumteam with Dunn, I didn't think a Greeting kill was likely unless they were planning a bus. That says nothing about you. It's only even relevant to you in the case of the dunn/you pairing. And let's say I'm being very charitable and believe that for some reason you think the only possible team from my point of view that includes you is you/dunn, AND that by "Earlier you said..." you meant to say "By taking what you said earlier and narrowing it down based on what I believe to be the current viable teams FYPOV...". Even if I generously take both of those interpretations, me saying "Team X would likely only kill Y if they are planning a bus" does not mean that Team X is now ruled out if there is no bus. Going into the day planning a bus is different than executing one (and you still might hammer Dunn, who knows). You're actually making the same logical mistake Greeting made earlier, that you explained in great detail, of judging intent based on result. So even in this very charitable view of things, which is the only one where I can see a possible town perspective from you here, you make two significant logical errors, and then double down on them when called out on it. I have a very hard time believing that someone who cares so much about logic would be so bad at it.

As someone once said:

This all sounds pedantic, but it is actually quite important. In scumhunting, logical errors can be honest mistakes. But, they can also be due to cognitive dissonance, which is impossible to 100% erase as scum.

The more likely (and much simpler, to Occam's razor a bit here) explanation to me is that you are partners with Dunn and so that was the only pairing that you really cared about reading about or thinking about. So in your mind, me saying that "a Greeting kill for dunn/zefiend only makes sense if a bus was planned" is equivalent to saying that "if zefiend is scum, the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless he is planning to bus", because the only world that exists to you is one in which zefiend being scum is equivalent to the pairing being dunn/zefiend.

I'm also obviously not trying to lim you today anymore (I preferred that at the start of the day, but as soon as there's a cross, that's not going to happen). I'm just trying to show why you're the best lim tomorrow after we lim dunn.

[butterchurn]

I'm feeling pretty ready to lock in Dunn/zefiend. I don't mind being the next one to vote Dunn here, cape, you good with that? zefiend, you can even get in on the action and hammer if you want to.

Cape/catboi, if I'm right, one of us will be dead toMorrow. Anything else we need to talk about before that happens? I also don't at all mind waiting longer if you want to think more first, we have 3 more days to deadline, but it seems like Dunn has given up and, to me at least, zefiend is the clear partner. I don't have much else I feel like I need to look into or discuss.

[catboi]

I was actually going to comment that I'm struggling to come up with more things to say on the state of things as they are. I think in all likelihood I get nightkilled after a Dunn flip, in the event of that I'm most confident in clearing cape still. Doubt he distanced consistently all game as scum (and if he did, I simply tip my hat to it). Stated my lean but am not dictating a choice because I'm not at a level of confidence or skill where I feel comfortable in doing so. Really wish zefiend had given something more of substance here.

I pulled out some bits I think are relevant knowing Dunn is conf-scum FMPOV, but have actively resisted doing a full reread because I think it'll do more harm than good. That limits the amount of things I can say here.

[fferyllt]

et

[fferyllt]

allez