Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.02

Tejate Raichu (3):

fua, Shirou, Cephrir

implosion (2):

GuiltyLion, numberQ

GuiltyLion (1):

implosion

Shirou (1):

MegAzumarill

Not Voting (5):

Amazonian Legends, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse

With 12 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is January 31 at 6:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-01-31 19:00:00)

[implosion]

nQ, that post isn't a caveat. It's an explanation that it's easy for me to townread GL in practice because I did it in the other two games I played with him recently, hence, I can't just townread him in this game for things that I "typically" would. I have been hedgy on it but I've also clearly listed him as a top scumread atm; it's just that I don't feel like my reads are the most solid in the world.

I've also explicitly said this game that I think opportunism is a good thing, generally. Why wouldn't I want to take an opportunity to pressure someone?

Oh, maybe I did misunderstand. When you said "hard townreading you [GL] when you were scum" I guess you were referring to that other game?

Yeah, I'm referring to a coalition game and a white flag game, both of which I was town and GL was town and then scum, and I hard townread him correctly in the coalition game and hard townread him incorrectly in the white flag game.

[numberQ]

Alright well, the point remains. I misinterpreted one part of your posts but I don't feel that negates my arguments. You're leaning into them by straight up admitting it was opportunistic and hedgy, instead of trying to rationalize it away like I think I was expecting. So I'm not sure how to feel about that.

What do you make of GL voting you while you were casing him? Does that point towards one alignment over the other?

[MegAzumarill]

@catboi the VC is using d1 text instead of d2

shirou you haven't interacted with me basically at all this game
you can blame that mostly on my low post count yes, bit trying to tie me to a town!tejate flip is not only bad logic but also helps scum.

Your position in general reflects a pretty common scum archetype and these two together make a pretty strong case fmpov.

I mean you can towncase yourself but OMGUS does nothing to help in the long run.

[MegAzumarill]

Want to focus on redtea and ydrasse but they don't exist so

[Tejate Raichu]

Good afternoon, I've thought about it a bit and I have come to a conclusion.

VOTE: implosion

Explanation coming whenever I'm done writing it, have some patience.

[Tejate Raichu]

Vote Count 2.02

Tejate Raichu (2):

fua, Shirou

implosion (2):

GuiltyLion, numberQ

GuiltyLion (1):

implosion

Shirou (1):

MegAzumarill

Tejate Raichu (1):

Cephrir

Not Voting (5):

Amazonian Legends, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse

With 12 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is January 31 at 6:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-01-31 19:00:00)

Also, you have duplicate votes on me. It should be one Tejate (3), but it's currently Tejate (2) and Tejate (1).

[implosion]

Alright well, the point remains. I misinterpreted one part of your posts but I don't feel that negates my arguments. You're leaning into them by straight up admitting it was opportunistic and hedgy, instead of trying to rationalize it away like I think I was expecting. So I'm not sure how to feel about that.

What do you make of GL voting you while you were casing him? Does that point towards one alignment over the other?

Granted the context of opportunism was bigger yesterday because the gamestate was stagnant and wagons needed to form but if it weren't for "opportunism" i'd want to pressure e.g. Ydrasse much more. But I have to wait for an opportunity to do so. And hedging, well, I don't think I'm especially confident in my reads as a player. I certainly was hedgy on a lot of my reads in guardians, and the one read that I ultimately was never hedgey on (luke) was wrong, so :shrug:

GL voting me while I was casing him is not an unreasonable tact as either alignment; actually having sat on it more it's maybe more unexpected if he's town, just since he'd said nothing negative about me before it. I think if he's town the reaction I'd

want

to see is like, a very aggressive "are you sure you're not misunderstanding something here", given the dynamics I think I'd expect from him. It's a little surprising he'd find this immediately voteworthy if he's town, it makes sense as an emotional reaction to having someone drop two walls of case on you but I don't remember GL being in-the-moment in that way. Also, it's possible that I'm unfairly BoPing here (especially since GL hasn't seen my scumgame since dedede) but I don't really think that a wall-case like this is the kind of thing that I'd really be catchable on as scum. I'm perfectly capable of making rational/logical arguments as scum just as much as I am as town, and I feel like he should be able to discern that about me; I think probably his insistence that my case was bad (which is fine) should not have led to an immediate insistence that I am scummy to the contrary of his previous stated town lean on me.

If he's scum then that kind of reaction I'm describing would be pretty difficult to fake probably because, at least at first, I didn't really give the impression that I was gonna budge any time soon. Which would make the easier thing to do as scum to just go after me. And yeah, I think there are sort-of logical flaws in my case that are easy to attack, and I think scum-GL would certainly have reason to go after them and call me scummy for them.

[implosion]

meg, did you see nQ's claim?

[implosion]

I'm looking at my other games with him and I actually forgot this/might have been conflating some specific things from the games at one point, but I did attack GL pretty strongly in the game where he was scum before flipping on him. Unfortunately not as useful as if I'd attacked him in the game we were both town, but in that one I called him town from the start.

There are also some big differences in context that make them hard to compare (in that game, GL was being attacked by both me and a scumbuddy of his pretty strongly, as well as some other people, and he was bussing back in return, and it happened earlyish d1). He initially acted frustrated and claimed he was very riled up, and he eventually called me townish for giving an olive branch. But I think the focus of the dynamic there was the crossbussing so decidedly less useful.

(yes this post is saying essentially nothing but i'm still choosing to make it)

[morph the cat]

Good afternoon, I've thought about it a bit and I have come to a conclusion.

VOTE: implosion

Explanation coming whenever I'm done writing it, have some patience.

You have implosion as a null-town read in your last reads list, which was about 2 calendar days ago, I think.

[Tejate Raichu]

Good afternoon, I've thought about it a bit and I have come to a conclusion.

VOTE: implosion

Explanation coming whenever I'm done writing it, have some patience.

You have implosion as a null-town read in your last reads list, which was about 2 calendar days ago, I think.

Did I not also state that he would probably be the first person I'd bump down given some re-thinking?

[implosion]

I am patiently awaiting this explanation.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean this is sort of the point. You never "scumread" him formally but you did unambiguously say you were getting scummy vibes from something of his, and then you quickly turned around on that. Hence my saying that you as town would want to push on that more. It's just weird to go so quickly from saying something Ceph did is suspicious (which you did do, even if you didn't formally scumread him) immediately to voting someone else specifically because of reasoning that assumes Ceph is town. Like I think it's pretty weird that early in the game to vote for a reason based on two specific people being town in the first place.

on this and your subsequent 1901

I think maybe this is just a disconnect in playstyle more than anything - when I return to a game and feeling like I should put some thoughts into the thread, especially if I'm a lil behind the number of active pages, I will often just react to posts or put my first thought down before I've really deeply thought through it. Doubly so when I'm not 100% sober and not tryharding.

That Saturday, I posted 135, then didn't come back to the game until later that night, there were some 170 posts to catch up on and read through. During the initial read through, my first reaction was that I didn't like the vibe of the Ceph-Tejate interactions on page 10, felt like Ceph was being overly aggressive to relatively innocuous posts from Tejate. I then saw nQ's post 273 on the next page saying the same thing I had been thinking, which gave me good feels about nQ and prompted me to post 308, then 310 to add my own take/perspective. But as I was writing out my thoughts, it was causing me to question them myself, which is already reflected even in that post. And then by the time I had read through the rest from 270-300, I kinda didn't feel as strong of a dislike toward's Ceph's posts anymore, and was trying to absorb that with also a gut dislike of fua's page 12 and vote on Ceph. I thought pushing/voting fua would be both more informative and based off a better read than my initial Ceph ping.

Being 100% sincere, is this something I could/would fake as scum? Possibly - I'm pretty sure I've said on site elsewhere before that I do like to fake these types of quick reads reversals as scum, both because it might appear agenda-less and because I do them as town. However, the fact is I

do

do them as town, so unless your argument is that the execution of this one in particular looks fake and designed to get towncred,

or

that it serves a certain agenda, to me it's just a non-indicative playstyle habit, to post a hipfire take and then reverse it moments later.

If you're intentionally trying to bias yourself, I can see how maybe it's "weird" and therefore worth calling out, but ultimately I don't really think you can genuinely believe it's weird in a

scummy

(rather than NAI) manner. At no point did I later try to push Ceph on those grounds, and my pressure on fua quickly turned into a townread, so it doesn't set me up down the road to scumread/push either of the players involved, the only real scum!agenda it could have is just trying to fake-solve in a way I think I'd solve as town around slots I wasn't planning on limming/pushing on D1. But you haven't been suggesting that it's a disingenuous/fake version of something I do as town, you're suggesting it's something I

wouldn't

do as town, which is just not true.

Your argument seems to rest on an idea that town!me should have been more suspicious of Ceph - why? Why is it inconceivable that I'd initially dislike something on my very first catchup read through, but then reflect on it / think about it and decide nevermind, it's not actually a good reason to suspect someone? Surely that has happened to you before?

[GuiltyLion]

And why would a 1v1 make your points less salient?

you ever been in a game where people start arguing every little point back and forth for pages on end? nobody wants to read all that, I had my initial reaction where I called out the stuff I thought was disingenous/motivated reasoning, and didn't imagine further discussion (before other players had a chance to react/post) would do much productive and would instead just bloat the thread - which is annoying to come back to and makes catching up a difficult process for other players

[implosion]

Actually am going to do other things now so will respond to above later but I want to mention while still here:

morph, any opinion on the me and GL thing? You've been quite aggressively quiet on us both despite us both being in your PoE and, well, this happening.

[MegAzumarill]

meg, did you see nQ's claim?

yes, I should have phrased it as assuming a numberQ scum flip but I took it out as I didn't want it tied to their opinion on ydrasse.

I figured it would be implied since if NumberQ is town ceph is mech!town anyway

[MegAzumarill]

Part of the problem I hold with Shirou is I find their cases built in basically nothing but feeling very confident in them.

Shirou can you restate your tejate case in full.

[GuiltyLion]

redtea is a lingering of me thinking their approach to the game is more sensible as detached town than detached scum. Like look at this page, I just don't think detached scum would typically have this little care about how they're perceived.

on the whole, how much do you really believe this? Like would you bet the game on redtea being town? Would you say you're more confident in me being scum than redtea?

I can vibe/understand your gamestate points about me feeling like I could be the active scum, but I think it's really dangerous/bad to be making gamestate views as the foundation for your sort on a hard-to-sort player (me) when you're simultaneously making base assumptions like town!redtea for

really

spurious reasoning. I don't see anything at all that makes me think redtea's play isn't just lazy scum faking apathy for townpoints.

[GuiltyLion]

I think Shirou's assessment of me as a gamestate read is fair, (and similar to implosion's) but unfortunately that means I'm dealing with a BoP dynamic where it's starting to feel like I have to sort correctly in the (in my mind) much harder to sort and less likely to be town low-content slots like Meg or redtea to try to

prove

myself town via gamestate, and if I pick incorrectly between them (or even Tejate as well) it sets scum up to push me pretty easily on D3 or beyond.

therefore I humbly request any N2 cops to strongly consider copping me if we mislim today, I'm probably not NK'd in that universe and it'd be a real asset to town if I were hard cleared imo

[numberQ]

I'm not sure I grok what a "gamestate read" is. Sounds similar to PoE, in that the read is due to elements outside the slot itself?

[GuiltyLion]

some other things I'm trying to sift through and form Real Opinions on

morph/Tejate shared mutual scumread based on prior game of experience - I feel like this is significant in some flavor, though I could see either side of a T/S or even a S/S distancing tactic. I find it somewhat unlikely that both slots would be town and both would be having genuine good faith concerns about disparity in each other's play from a past T-T game, yet not be doing much more to resolving it? Like Ceph has a really great point about their D1 interactions looking kinda wack, and it reminded me of the really bizarre Tejate comment about morph in 1265 that I called out in 1468 and 1475.

at the same time, having some small doubts about scum!Tejate given that he still feels kinda tonally honest to me... but not sure if they're enough to turn him into a legit townread - I also feel resoundingly meh about the way he's defending me against a bad point in implosion's case, implo already acknowledged that it was an intentionally biased case and Tejate isn't really acknowledging/responding to that, and I could see this as scum sucking up to me and trying to leverage a TvT into a convenient vote / alternate wagon.

Meg feels more likely to be the apathetic townie to me than redtea, I still scumread every redtea post reflexively with great vengeance. Like can we all agree 1925 is just a super LAMISTy post? what was redtea themself doing at end of D1 yesterday to keep the day going or to help generate content and sort players? why is there an assumption that the replacement can't or won't be active today?

as I just said in 2019, I feel I need to get the vote right between Tejate/Meg/redtea as a miselim on any of them is only going to further paranoia on my slot, but my current pref for lim is probably redtea->Tejate->Meg in that order.

here's another gamestate read, I also kinda feel like if town!redtea there'd be at least one scum making noise about kickstarting that wagon again, but basically everyone feels really apathetic about it. Why? It makes me feel either redtea is scum or redtea is a miselim scum want to save for later, and neither is a good thing to be ignoring right now.

[GuiltyLion]

Tejate wagon feels super solid composition wise so far though

VOTE: Tejate

[Tejate Raichu]

... I also feel resoundingly meh about the way he's defending me against a bad point in implosion's case, implo already acknowledged that it was an intentionally biased case and Tejate isn't really acknowledging/responding to that, and I could see this as scum sucking up to me and trying to leverage a TvT into a convenient vote / alternate wagon.

Ahem, the post I am making (referred to below) may or may not be in large part a response to that whole debacle.

Good afternoon, I've thought about it a bit and I have come to a conclusion.

VOTE: implosion

Explanation coming whenever I'm done writing it, have some patience.

[GuiltyLion]

one other last last thought on redtea and whether they're apathetic town/scum

if I were scum this game, I think I'd consider aiming for at least one scum teammate to try to act TSTBS/disengaged/unsortable in an effort try to vortex the cop shots away from the teammates trying to endgame/carry. IMO this is why it's more useful here to try to use cop checks on slots that are more likely to endgame rather than null-scum barely posters, but from a scum!perspective it'd probably be a good idea to have a slot trying to ride that line where nobody feels comfortable reading either way (due to lack of real content) who might be able to coast for quite a while yet is totally fine to discard in case they get guiltied