Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]


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Post Post #2150 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:50 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

implosion, the issue is you opened the day with this:
In post 1789, implosion wrote:The dynamics of whether scum are likely to have been on the imag wagon depend a lot on redtea's alignment; if redtea is town then it's not like scum were at any real risk yesterday and they probably would have voted more for looking town than for caring who got elimmed.
and then have basically since treated redtea as town, not once pressuring them, not once discussing how you'd view the game on them being scum, instead pushing me because you didn't like my D1 nor my progression on the imaginality wagon

I get that you're saying you don't see our alignments as tied together in any way, but that doesn't feel true to me in how you're behaving. You're spending all this effort casing me because you don't like my redtea scumread and because you think the gamestate points to me being scum if your townpool (which includes redtea) is correct. I don't feel at all like you're considering the world in which redtea is scum who I would be correctly pushing on, I imagine you'd say "well you could still be just distancing/bussing them in that world", which is certainly fair to speculate about, but I don't feel you even thinking about the first step of "what if redtea is scum". That's why I'm so hung up on trying to figure out why you have all this confidence in redtea town, you're basing a lot of your subsequent play
off
that assumption instead of revisiting the assumption itself.
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Post Post #2151 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:52 am

Post by Ydrasse »

In post 2147, morph the cat wrote:
In post 2144, Ydrasse wrote:everyone feels my raw towny energy even through such few words
Urge to burn
i don’t even have to try for the townreads :)
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Post Post #2152 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:53 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 2146, implosion wrote:It might be partially unfair to accuse you of lacking nuance on redtea but posts like this make me feel like it. Who the heck "fakes apathy for townpoints"??? Like I could see redtea being scum who is apathetic about the game, but what kind of scum who is genuinely engaged in the game will then fake apathy because they think apathy will look townier than them engaging with people. That just sounds absurd to me, apathy is usually not viewed as townish.
this also feels like a semantic nitpick or misunderstanding, maybe "fake apathy for townpoints" isn't the best phrasing but it should be obvious I'm not saying redtea is
actually
secretly engaged and just faking apathy, I mean more like they're staying in their projected apathetic lane because no one is forcing them to do anything outside of that. Maybe I should have said "faking [being apathetic town] for townpoints", "fake" is meant to be operative on "town" not "apathy", but I can see how that's not well-written.
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Post Post #2153 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:59 am

Post by catboi »

Prodding redtea.
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Post Post #2154 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:06 am

Post by morph the cat »

In post 2148, Cephrir wrote:yeah, but today isn't the day to worry about that
hence urge, not vote.
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Post Post #2155 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:07 am

Post by implosion »

I mean maybe there's something subconscious with me assuming redtea is town but I'm not exactly in tune with my subconscious. I don't feel like it's informing the way I'm thinking about you; the concern with your redtea push is with the push itself and the fact that it's on essentially lhf. I disagree that no one is forcing them to go outside their apathetic lane. Sure they haven't been wagoned yet today but you've been harping them forever and most of the player list is listing them in their bottom 2-3 reads. If they're scum they basically know they're not living forever. I'm not worried about me pressuring them per se. I did in real time this game day and, well, they disappeared despite me posting two minutes after them. How the hell am I supposed to "pressure" them? It's the same problem as yesterday. In my mind they're kind of like Ydrasse, they're just not a slot I can do anything with and so I might as well focus my effort on other slots right now. I really would love to make them do shit. I don't think them not doing shit is meaningfully scum indicative though. Even though I think they'd flip town, like I just said I wouldn't really shed much of a tear if they were limmed because, well, the slot is empty and half the player list thinks it's scum. I'd just either feel slightly smug or have egg on my face depending on the flip.
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Post Post #2156 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:09 am

Post by implosion »

And regarding me opening the day with 1789, that was just a general purpose response to people talking about wagon analysis; it was not me giving my Central Point of Focus for the day.
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Post Post #2157 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:45 am

Post by implosion »

PA, are you able to elaborate on the current state of your morph read, in terms of confidence and any reasons you think might be compelling?
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Post Post #2158 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:49 am

Post by Shirou »

In post 2153, catboi wrote:
Prodding redtea.
It's a bit mean but if the slot will keep going like this I may hope that they don't pick up the prodge...

if redtea is town, it's even more likely that one of Meg/Tejate is scum and it's of vital importance the slot to be here for us to attempt to solve it...today elimination can quite literally change the direction this game goes.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

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"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
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Post Post #2159 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:02 am

Post by Shirou »

I think GL is asking around if we would be willing to switch to redtea and my personal opinion is fairly consistent to what I said before: yes and no.

I still think that Meg/Tejate are the best eliminations for today so I'll probably stay in those wagons for longer, but if later it feels like it's hopeless to get an elimination on those wagons (or maybe I change my opinion on them/redtea?), I probably would happily compromise on redtea.

The same goes to GL/Morph for today, that's why I said redtea was added to "that" pool.

I think redtea wouldn't be a bad flip, neither would GL/Morph, but in redtea case for example, I feel like it's a question of "there's less reasons to town read them" than "there's more reasons to scum read them". Sort of? I'm not saying it's not reasonable to scum read redtea for certain points that GL brought up, I just think that it's something that it's also relatively easy to explain by assuming he's simply a disengaged townie.

On the other hand I've Tejate/Meg which have done stuff that I look and think "how can I explain this from a town pov?", and the justifications...just get harder, I think especially for Tejate on hindsight. A lot of Meg's play could be explained if they are a ~stubborn~/~tunnely~ townie, but Tejate explanation that he would be a more ~timid~ player due to also his inexperience doesn't vibe well with his other game so...it feels worse.

After reading this you may think why am I still torn between Meg/Tejate then if I do think that Tejate is kinda worse objectively speaking?

Well...I'm kinda human, I've my confirmation biases okay? I simply do really dislike Meg's posts vibe. From the weird logic in some of their accusations to back their entrance where they simply said nothing of relevance about the major topics in the game. Sometimes the more logically sound answer isn't the correct one you know? Mafia isn't math.
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Post Post #2160 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:05 am

Post by Shirou »

I'm interested to see if redtea slot will be replaced out
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
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Post Post #2161 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:14 am

Post by Shirou »

I think the unique warning/hot take I've about redtea right now is towards GL

Sure I would be okay with compromising on redtea if the slot isn't replaced/completely change their approach here, but if redtea flips town, I do think I'll give GL a scum lean.

If redtea is town I feel like the probability that this is scum!GL trying to redirect us into the LHF is quite high, if one of Meg/Tejate are scum.

GL, you seem to have an issue the ~confidence~ that implosion has about redtea being town, but conversely I kinda am still a bit puzzled about how ~confident~ you're about their slot being scum.

I'm saying confidence weirdly like that because I know both of you already said it's not exactly confidence, but the thing is implosion is almost always assuming redtea is town or at least not a very good vote right now (kinda?), and it feels you're mostly always assuming they're scum/a very good vote, since D1.

It feels like you're in fact both doing a similar thing, but each on a different side of the coin more or less? But I suppose since I agree with implosion points/logic/pov more than yours (and I town lean him), to me personally it means your posts bug me more than implo's.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2162 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:15 am

Post by Shirou »

I think the Meg/Tejate/Redtea trio are really important to solve this game perhaps

if all of the above are town, gun to my head it would be GL/Morph/Ydra, but...I do think that there's at least one scum in the above, and understanding who that scum is, may be the most important thing to solve the rest of the PL?
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2163 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:19 am

Post by Shirou »

also one last thing

it's an unfair take I know but even if I'll give scum points for GL if redtea flips town, I don't think I'll give that many town points if they flip scum...

it's like I said before, the confidence that redtea is scum seems a bit overdone to me...I would still suspect that GL may or not have thrown his most fragile teammate under the bus to gain town cred.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2164 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:29 am

Post by morph the cat »

In post 2160, Shirou wrote:I'm interested to see if redtea slot will be replaced out
Same.

If he's not going to step up and start putting content in the game, I hope he's replaced.
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Post Post #2165 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:34 am

Post by morph the cat »

@Implosion


Was that it re your interest in my take on you vs GL?
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Post Post #2166 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:31 am

Post by implosion »

In post 2165, morph the cat wrote:
@Implosion


Was that it re your interest in my take on you vs GL?
This is not going to actually be an answer to what you're asking here but what I think you're getting at. Tbh i spent like several minutes trying to figure out something else to ask you about earlier and I just couldn't. I've just felt like you've been very sidelined today and you saying you felt incredibly meh about the game just made me not really sure what to say. I guess it's consistent with you feeling like you had nothing on either of us and then townreading something GL said but like, idk, to a degree I'm starting to feel like my opinions in this game are just an enormous ball of mess. There's a part of me that is okay with being copped since I'm fairly contentious but also I don't really want to be because I really don't trust myself right now. There's a part of me that just wants to throw out all my reads and start over, and there's a part of me that is annoyed at certain slots not reading me correctly but really I just haven't played that much mafia as of late so that annoyance isn't really justified (and some of those slots may be scum, etc).

I asked you about me/GL because I thought it was weird you hadn't commented on it, and because I still feel this weird sense of obligation to try to interact directly with your slot to sort it, but maybe that's not the best way to go about things. I feel like if you don't have more to say on the interaction then I don't really have more to ask you about it.
In post 2162, Shirou wrote:I think the Meg/Tejate/Redtea trio are really important to solve this game perhaps

if all of the above are town, gun to my head it would be GL/Morph/Ydra, but...I do think that there's at least one scum in the above, and understanding who that scum is, may be the most important thing to solve the rest of the PL?
I know you didn't want to reiterate your case for meg but I'd appreciate if you could try specifically to convince me tejate is scum, from the perspective where I currently feel like his play is pretty consistent with newbie town. I've felt like he has taken the reins here to some degree, and that it's unfair to compare his ability to take the reins in a newbie game whose four days spanned 59 pages and this game whose 1.5 days have spanned 87 and with 13 (really 15) players to 9.

I think this framing of the game as "we should think about these three slots first" is useful to me, and I want to focus on them for a bit and step away from thinking much about GL.
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Post Post #2167 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:44 am

Post by morph the cat »

I feel like interacting with me directly is the best way to sort me.

Possibly less effective with Cabd, though it's usually a major factor in my sorting him.
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Post Post #2168 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:47 am

Post by morph the cat »

direct interaction also helps me sort others, and I need to get over my sense of meh and do more of that.
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Post Post #2169 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:52 am

Post by morph the cat »

I feel like there's absolutely no spiciness to my current reads. more or less agreeing with some reads lists while snorting at where we're placed. Maybe that's a sign of town converging, but I don't really trust that's what's going on.
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Post Post #2170 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:59 am

Post by numberQ »

After some rumination this is where I think my reads are right now.

Conf town

Ceph

Town

Shirou
AL
fua

Null town

morph

Null

Ydrasse

Lean scum

GL
implosion
Tejate

Scum

redtea
Meg

Every category is ordered more or less, so for example Shirou is townier than AL, who's townier than fua.

AL is so high mainly because of the doc claim. I actually think by play fua is probably more town, but the claim put AL a slot higher. Otherwise AL would be null town or maybe null.

I waffled a bit on whether I thought there was enough association between GL/implo from the interaction earlier today, that they shouldn't be in the same category. But ultimately it was too much wine so I threw them both in lean scum. If either flips scum I'd put the other higher, but a town flip would not necessarily make the other one drop lower.

I built a case off redtea's ISO yesterday and then just kind of dropped it since the day ended before I could finalize my thoughts in comparison to imaginality. Literally nothing has changed in my read since then, except they have less of a shield to defend their low activity / light touch since it's not day 1 anymore. I actually had redtea in lean scum at first, because the lack of activity was still softening my read a little. But nah. AL pointed out redtea probably shouldn't live until M/ELo without demonstrating more activity, and I agree.

Which leads to Meg. The stand outs in their ISO include: a hyperfast skim, the fua self-awareness thing, and the Shirou thing. The more I think about their tunneling on Shirou the worse it looks. I want to see Meg look through Shirou's ISO and point out a pattern of scummy behavior, because their main points (they are approaching Tejate with an agenda, and they're noncommittal/uninquisitive) just really ring hollow. Particularly after saying multiple times through their catch up that Shirou is town. Which, yeah, it's just a skim and reads can change. But at some point if you really see scum in a slot that others do not, you have to actually read the slot.

VOTE: Meg
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Post Post #2171 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:24 am

Post by implosion »

Of course in ISOing redtea I got to the part where they reply to GL's wallpost and now i'm thinking about GL again ._. I want to make one amendment which is that I think my read on GL does depend on redtea's alignment, it's just that I think his play is scummy in different ways depending on what redtea is. If redtea is town then I default to the argument of "GL has spent the game happily pushing multiple LHF town players". If redtea is scum then well GL's play makes plenty of sense as a bus where redtea is kind of dead weight to the scumteam, yada yada. This is like obviously very logically unsatisfying because it's a sort of damned if you do damned if you don't but idk. i just still don't like his push toward redtea and I like it less now that I'm reviewing his wallish post () and redtea's responses to it. It all just looks like either scum who decided they saw something they thought they could push from redtea and then let that color their reading of all of redtea's posts or, if GL is town, confirmation bias; I think a lot of the reasons in that post to scumread redtea are just flatly bad reasons that won't indicate scum more often than town. And ISOing redtea has also made me feel like redtea is town so I think I'll just try to loosely towncase them, though I am confirmation biased as well certainly.
In post 1470, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1298, Cephrir wrote:i suppose i would be interested in why he chose redtea specifically.
right so I finally have the time/energy to specifically go into what I didn't like in redtea's ISO

let me break it down:

- it seems a little odd to me to open by saying that made you laugh while also claiming to have not read the game fully yet. There'd be missing context for what I was pushing fua for, no reads on fua/myself to interpret our interaction - like is that post still as funny if fua is scum trying to discredit me? just seemed to me like an odd entry in the game and something that's more likely to come from an informed perspective re:fua and I's alignments, rather than town who hasn't read up

is a bad post. redtea doesn't give any indication of whether they are townreading fua, all they do is strawman the reason for suspecting fua and push against that strawman, while joking about themselves. Vibes exactly to me like scum who want to make a buddy in fua and also get a joking foothold into the game. The "conversationalist" remark feels like fake analysis, again there's no evidence of a thought process regarding whether town or scum is more likely to be "conversationalist", no evidence of trying to reason about fua's alignment.

is also inconsistent with - if redtea only read between posts 248 and 330, and didn't read the beginning of the game, how are they making comments about fua's entry or their ISO? Did redtea read fua in ISO but not the game? why?

- reminds me of stuff I do as scum to try to make it seem like I don't have an agenda, giving one opinion then immediately reversing it. it was also just an immediate hasty misrepresentation of my position, redtea acted like I was demanding a lim immediately ("we have 12 days left") when I wasn't.

as for a general pattern of play remark, a lot of redtea's content is in response to stuff happening in the thread when they are here, which indicates that they're at least reading along at some points in the game, but redtea doesn't give any indication whatsoever of their reads or how they see the game until . I don't see proactive effort to engage with people or an obvious direction redtea wants to go for lim or pressure. Very much gives me scum coasting and not giving information vibes

And then is a janky post in that the questions/thoughts section doesn't correlate to the reads at all, as far as I can tell. It's also weird to have a "can go" category (which presumably means scumreads), but then a "flip would help" category for Tejate/Cephrir - what's the difference between "can go" and "flip would help", like is "flip would help" null? Why is that different than the "???" tier? I don't think that part of their post is inherently scum indicative but it sure doesn't show me a solvey/uninformed mindset, it's missing indicators of a town mindset that show me how the reads relate to each other or how they were arrived at.
I never got to this post when I was ISOing GL and I did respond to it a while ago saying I didn't buy it but I think it merits a longer form response both for the sake of sorting GL and of sorting redtea.

330 is kind of a wild claim; the claim is that redtea-town wouldn't have been likely to find as funny without context. First of all I personally think that post is funny in isolation and I think it's kind of unreasonable to think that someone wouldn't be able to find it funny in isolation with phrases like "hop in balls-out into a pre-existing feud" and "because I'm eager to get away from the pressure of zero votes". But like, the fact that I have to say this is just absurd. Litigating whether the humor of a post is intrinsic or extrinsic and whether someone's finding humor in that post must necessitate them having read more than they claimed or be informed of alignments. It's just like, so far removed from how I think about games, to the point where I feel like I have to be misinterpreting GL's point somehow but I literally cannot see what else the point means.

331 is fine and I probably agree with GL's analysis of redtea here and that post is a little scummy.

332 is like a "gotcha" moment that is meaningless. Like, so what if redtea saying they only read between two posts is inconsistent with them saying they saw fua's entry. They did also say that they ISO'd fua. I think it's obvious to interpret 331-332 as redtea saying they only read those posts + fua's iso. But instead GL is calling this out as an inconsistency, and, in context of the whole post, implying that inconsistency is scummy. Again, I feel like I have to be misinterpreting GL's point somehow because it seems really weird to me. Either he's implying that redtea is lying about what they've read and is therefore scummy for lying, or he's saying that... idk what else. And there's no reason for scum to lie about what they've read. The asking why redtea specifically read those posts + fua's iso is fine but like, also not an implicitly scummy thing. I've certainly read random ISOs as I catch up if someone catches my eye.

I just remembered GL did clarify this point so ignore the piece about lying (I'm not deleting it because I'm lazy):
GL wrote:I don't think I said redtea was lying about how much they've read of the thread? The point was more I don't understand how they could genuinely engage with things in the way that they did, if they hadn't read the thread.
Well, they said they read fua's ISO. Seems like perfectly enough to make that comment.

No major comments on the rest of the post, these are the two points that just feel really weird to me. I'll say more about redtea later
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Post Post #2172 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:28 am

Post by implosion »

In post 2169, morph the cat wrote:I feel like there's absolutely no spiciness to my current reads. more or less agreeing with some reads lists while snorting at where we're placed. Maybe that's a sign of town converging, but I don't really trust that's what's going on.
I think part of my problem with the status quo of the world is that the people at the "bottom" being meg/redtea/tejate feels a lot like the Charisma Fallacy. Maybe not tejate per se but it really feels to me like there's some amount of conflation at large between play that is some combination of poor/hard to follow the logic of/erratic and play that is scum-indicative.
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Post Post #2173 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:29 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

@catboi
can we get a VC?
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Post Post #2174 (ISO) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:37 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

Honestly, should I just claim now? Do I even bother waiting til E-1?

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