Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]


User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2600 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:39 am

Post by morph the cat »

In post 2599, Tejate Raichu wrote:unless you believe Amazonian is also scum
I would literally self-vote in xylim under the assumption that Spay gave me a fake town role PM than vote Amazonians at any point in this game levels of they're town.

Which is why i'm lock-towning the shit out of Fua too.
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Tejate Raichu
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Goon
Goon
Posts: 806
Joined: December 21, 2021
Location: PST

Post Post #2601 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:50 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

In post 2600, morph the cat wrote:
In post 2599, Tejate Raichu wrote:unless you believe Amazonian is also scum
I would literally self-vote in xylim under the assumption that Spay gave me a fake town role PM than vote Amazonians at any point in this game levels of they're town.

Which is why i'm lock-towning the shit out of Fua too.
I townread them! Just pointing out that suspecting fua over possible no NK shenanigans seems like the wrong way to entertain the possibilities of N1. Realistically, there are 4 things that could have happened night one.

1) doc!Amazonian protected cop!fua. Exactly what was stated was what happened. I really see no reason to doubt this at the moment.
2) scum!Amazonian fake protects scum!fua. But why? Neither of them are like, anywhere close to being in the danger zone? Amazonian was fairly TR'd and fua was close to locktown for almost everyone but me. This really makes no sense from a motivation perspective, even as WIFOM this would be baffling?
3) doc!Amazonian protected scum!fua, mafia make no kills this night. As stated, this seems unlikely. It would essentially require mafia to make a lucky guess that A) there was a night 1 doc at all and B) that the n1 doc would protect scum. This makes no sense unless 4 cop 6 doc, again even as WIFOM.
4) scum!Amazonian "protected" cop!fua, mafia make no kills. Of the 3 possibilities besides the obvious, this seems the most likely. Amazonian is in complete control of their own claim, so this wouldn't be relying on luck to pull off in theory. And fua is just an obvious protect. This would also have the benefit of strengthening all TR's on Amazonian, which is something scum may actually consider worth not killing for after pulling off a mis-elim d1.

That being said, while I have thought about this some, I still feel like it makes the most sense that a doc protected a cop.
User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2602 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:55 am

Post by morph the cat »

I just discount (4) because Penguin's not capable to my knowledge of faking the smugness radiating from her first few posts of day two.
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Tejate Raichu
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Goon
Goon
Posts: 806
Joined: December 21, 2021
Location: PST

Post Post #2603 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:07 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

I'll take your word for it.
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2604 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:10 am

Post by numberQ »

Okay, I've been picking at the thread for the past few hours between doing actual work. Got to the end of page 92, and it's making me want to pivot back to implosion. Though part of that pivot does depend on a redtea town flip, and the main reason I think that could be the flip is because of the vibes I'm getting from implosion, so it's kind of an ouroboros.

Spoiler: comments on implo, pages 88-92
In post 2211, implosion wrote:I want to point out that Tejate's eagerness to claim is also something that I feel like is drastically more typical of newbie town than of newbie scum. There are exceptions of course but as a rule, I feel like newbie town is more likely to earnestly feel like a claim will make a difference than newbie scum who would rather hold their cards to their chest.
In post 2197, Tejate Raichu wrote:It's honestly at the point where even if redtea is town, the reactions from implo and Shirou are outright bizzare. Shirou has listed them in their "options for who to vote today" list along with myself and Meg, yet has not so much as even hinted at voting or even pressuring the slot.

If anything, implosion has handled it
less
strangely than Shirou has, since implo seems to have some degree of intent to actually properly case redtea.

I smell blood in the water. I'm not that good at getting all of my thoughts out in large blocks, so hopefully this smaller post helps you guys understand better why exactly I want Shirou copped beyond him simply being the obvious wagon leader.
Do you vaguely think that me and/or Shirou are like, trying to keep the limbait around for later or something like that?
This is a setup where every player either has a PR, or has to pretend like they have one. I don’t think in that light Tejate’s eagerness to claim is more likely newbie town. Would newb scum rather just never claim at all? I think they’d be on pins and needles about it and ready to get it off their chest ASAP. This feels like a fake reason to townread someone.

---
In post 2216, implosion wrote:The condensed version has already been said, hence wanting to elaborate.

redtea is town because their approach to the game lacks any coherent scum motivation, whereas town struggling to keep up could reasonably play in this way.
Why can’t scum struggling to keep up also play this way?

---
In post 2294, implosion wrote:I feel very shrug. I can't really deny that it's good for the game even if I think it'll flip town. I'll just either have more egg on my face than when i said i had egg on my face or i'll be slightly more smug than i said i'd be (although I guess some people are saying my reasons aren't valid even if redtea flips town, so I'm legally not allowed to be smug if they do flip town :()
Don’t like this at all. Makes me think a town flip for redtea means implosion is scum. Feels a lot like scum knowing what the flip will be and trying to get points so they can say “see! I was right all along! But I didn’t
know
I’d be right.”

---
In post 2296, implosion wrote:My read on Shirou hasn't changed: still think he's town, wouldn't be surprised if wrong but not interested in limming any time soon.

My thoughts on that thing you called out and your alignment depending on redtea's are that I did the same thing as Shirou, just more explicitly, so I can't exactly fault him for it. At this point I will suspect you more on a townflip than a scumflip though tbf part of that is just because there'll be 3 scum alive instead of 2. One of the big reasons I incorrectly townread you in white flag was off of "this couldn't be a bus" so I'm reluctant to give any material credit to your alignment in the event of a scumflip (yes, that conflict was very different from this one, but etc).
Admitting to scummy behavior is still scummy behavior. This line also pings me: "At this point I will suspect you more on a townflip than a scumflip though tbf part of that is just because there'll be 3 scum alive instead of 2." - It's basically a complete non-statement, and looks designed to lay a foundation for SRing GL after redtea flips town.


I am determined to get through the rest of the pages, unlike last day-end where I kept saying I would and ended up never doing it lol. So expect more from me later tonight after I go home and eat.
Hey!
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Tejate Raichu
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Goon
Goon
Posts: 806
Joined: December 21, 2021
Location: PST

Post Post #2605 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:32 pm

Post by Tejate Raichu »

Ah, real quick something just occurred to me in regards to 2601. Again, this is still wild conspiracy theory stuff so take this with a grain of salt.

5) doc!Amazonian protects cop!fua... but scum didn't night kill anyone. Let's think about option 3 for a second, why does the scum (possibly) attempting such a play have to be fua? I even noted in this possibility that there is no real guarantee of success which made it seem unlikely, but what if it failed? What if the scum tried to draw in the doctor for this play but ended up needlessly confirming fua?

Okay enough of that. By the way, I really like 2604. Overall I've actually liked a number of nQ's posts better than day 1, regardless of the claim.
User avatar
catboi
catboi
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
catboi
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8101
Joined: March 26, 2013

Post Post #2606 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:36 pm

Post by catboi »

Vote Count 2.07

redtea (5):
fua, GuiltyLion, MegAzumarill, Tejate Raichu, Shirou
Tejate Raichu (1):
Cephrir
GuiltyLion (1):
implosion
MegAzumarill (1):
numberQ


Not Voting (4):
Amazonian Legends, morph the cat, redtea, Enchant


With 12 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.



Deadline for Day 2 is January 31 at 6:00 PM EST.


Deadline Timer:
(expired on 2022-01-31 19:00:00)
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Amazonian Legends
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Goon
Goon
Posts: 201
Joined: January 7, 2022

Post Post #2607 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:50 pm

Post by Amazonian Legends »

In post 2605, Tejate Raichu wrote:Ah, real quick something just occurred to me in regards to 2601. Again, this is still wild conspiracy theory stuff so take this with a grain of salt.

5) doc!Amazonian protects cop!fua... but scum didn't night kill anyone. Let's think about option 3 for a second, why does the scum (possibly) attempting such a play have to be fua? I even noted in this possibility that there is no real guarantee of success which made it seem unlikely, but what if it failed? What if the scum tried to draw in the doctor for this play but ended up needlessly confirming fua?

Okay enough of that. By the way, I really like 2604. Overall I've actually liked a number of nQ's posts better than day 1, regardless of the claim.
I’m the queen of paranoid theories, but your two theories where scum decided not to kill the cop just aren’t very likely, at least in the case of most scum teams. I can’t imagine a scum team deciding to just not kill a claimed cop in a game with at least four cops without having a counter to the cop. There are just too many variables you can’t control; the risk is way too high for no guarantee of a tiny reward. Unless you can neuter the cop, thou shall not suffer a cop to live.

Having a minimum of four cops is why I also don’t think there was a no kill. Is it possible, yes, but I don’t think it’s likely at this moment.
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Amazonian Legends
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Goon
Goon
Posts: 201
Joined: January 7, 2022

Post Post #2608 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:04 pm

Post by Amazonian Legends »

In post 2598, GuiltyLion wrote:I also think it's kinda dissonant Shirou 180'd over the last couple days from "I'm bored/apathetic with this game and don't have energy, let's just move on to D3" to "OMFG I'M COP AND GL IS SCUM AND I NEED TO DESTROY THE TOWNCRED OF HIS SLOT", the switch in mood/energy felt kinda outta nowhere for me
It did come out of nowhere. I already knew about the claim and y’alls interaction yesterday, so I was specifically looking for the spark. I didn’t really find where the strong reaction came from.

I’m trying to figure out where I stand there. There’s a lot about shirou that I like. I like the self-referential bits, I like the stream of consciousness in some of his posts, I like some of the self-doubt in parts, I like the bits where he’s like aha if I were scum this is what I’d do, I like the bits about watching to see what people would just rather do because that makes them more readable, and I liked yesterday when he got bummed because he wanted to lead the imaginality wagon.

But this is a dense game with a lot of words, and I was thinking about various ways that scum can help to create apathy. Making a game so toxic that people don’t want to post isn’t a tactic that can really fly anymore, but there’s also inundating the game with too many posts or too many long posts that people won’t want to read. Now that I’ve typed that out I don’t think it’s going on with shirou, but I can’t make sense of yesterday.

I wanted to give implosion a townread for the sheer amount of words going to the redtea defense. I still kinda want to but I think I lost the plot some time back lol.
User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2609 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:06 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 2605, Tejate Raichu wrote:Overall I've actually liked a number of nQ's posts better than day 1, regardless of the claim.
This is the kind of posting what I'm thinking that happened a lot in the newbie game.

--------------

My opinion of paranoia takes is please don't infect me.
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Amazonian Legends
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Goon
Goon
Posts: 201
Joined: January 7, 2022

Post Post #2610 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:09 pm

Post by Amazonian Legends »

In post 2594, Amazonian Legends wrote:Also, wagon:
In post 1750, catboi wrote:imaginality (7):
fua, Ydrasse,
implosion, Shirou, GuiltyLion,
Cephrir,
morph the cat
Is interesting. I think given how the day was going/not going, I'm not putting too much weight on it, but the green folks are very likely town. Tammy had some theories about the wagon; not sure if seeing it here will help her organize them.

--PA
I’m just posting this here real quick to post something else. I should be on my computer where this would be easier but I’m not :/
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Amazonian Legends
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Goon
Goon
Posts: 201
Joined: January 7, 2022

Post Post #2611 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:38 pm

Post by Amazonian Legends »

In post 1201, catboi wrote:
Vote Count 1.07
Image

imaginality (5):
fua, Cephrir, Ydrasse, implosion, Shirou
implosion (2):
Amazonian Legends, imaginality
Tejate Raichu (1):
northsidegal
Cephrir (1):
numberQ
redtea (1):
GuiltyLion
numberQ (1):
Tejate Raichu


Not Voting (2):
morph the cat, redtea


With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.



Deadline for Day 1 is January 22 at 2:00 PM EST.


Deadline Timer:
(expired on 2022-01-22 15:00:00)


Notes:
numberQ is V/LA until January 14

So this is the vote count after imaginality claimed. Shirou voted after he claimed disbelieving the claim and thinking his reaction seemed non town. Raichu votes soon after but unvotes because he put him to l1 and we asked for the unvote (I think someone asked)
In post 1750, catboi wrote:
Vote Count 1.12 (FINAL)
Image


imaginality (7):
fua, Ydrasse, implosion, Shirou, GuiltyLion, Cephrir, morph the cat
redtea (2):
Amazonian Legends, imaginality
Cephrir (1):
numberQ
Ydrasse (1):
MegAzumarill

Not Voting (2):
redtea, Tejate Raichu


With 13 alive, it took 7 to eliminate.



Deadline for Day 1 was January 22 at 2:00 PM EST.
Guilty lion then voted due to the numbers bargaining, which has been gone over quite completely, cephrir thought both redtea and imagine sounded like scum, and morph hammered to end the day.

We didn’t have a problem with the wagon going through. Penguin didn’t like some of the vote hops onto imaginality and wanted to see who else would push it.

But what I’m interested in is that nobody had any real hesitation there. I know we’re all rolled so claims don’t count as much as they normally would. But when we ended up with no kill last night, with us being the only claimed n1 doc with a protect on a claimed cop, penguin theorized that we may be in a 6 cop/4 doc situation and they gambled on there being no night 1 doc. With two night two doc claims out there, would they have been especially interested in eliminating one of the night two docs if they had the slightest chance?

I feel like my brain is going somewhere with this but I can’t quite get it out clearly. It’s just that redtea discussion did largely drop in favor of pushing imaginality, and if redtea is scum then that’s a more obvious answer, but Blah I don’t know. Maybe it means nothing.
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Amazonian Legends
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Amazonian Legends
Goon
Goon
Posts: 201
Joined: January 7, 2022

Post Post #2612 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:01 pm

Post by Amazonian Legends »

I wish I knew what implosions scum game looked like, but a few times today I’ve just thought I don’t think implosion scum does this. Like for instance, the way that implosion is handling guilty lion with the purposefully biased case. I didn’t like or buy into a lot of the case. Some parts, especially in part one, were a bit nit picky. I’ve changed my mind multiple times on a read in less than 7 minutes, so things like that didn’t resonate. GL not being paranoid is eh. I don’t know if he is usually, and not entirely sure whatthere is to be paranoid about right now. The points I did like was the push on the strength of the red tea read and the turn around on imaginality. Thought there was another one, but my brains failing me. Anyway those two points were the most salient to me. (Though for me I also disliked the bargaining and thought it made him likely scum, so I understand How someone could think that way). I think the town read on redtea is a bit overdone for someone weak reasons, even if he’s right, I just don’t buy into the optics argument that much when not coupled with other things. But why go to bat for redtea to that extent as scum. He’s not trying to stop the elimination so that he can probably fit in anyway unless the argument is that he’s trying to keep his hands clean. I also like the kind of appealing he’s been doing to shirou, thinking they’re gelling and wanting him to be town.

So yeah I just don’t know that that ^ is implosions scum game. I don’t see the agenda that others have claimed. Yesterday after mega voted ydrasse, I said to penguin that maybe she was scum after all and everyone else is seeing something that I’m not, but with enchants posts that might not be the case and my early town read on ydrasse was right. I feel the same with implosion. He doesn’t look like scum to me but with other people’s suspicion I’m like what am I missing?
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Tejate Raichu
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Goon
Goon
Posts: 806
Joined: December 21, 2021
Location: PST

Post Post #2613 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:04 pm

Post by Tejate Raichu »

In post 2607, Amazonian Legends wrote:
In post 2605, Tejate Raichu wrote:Ah, real quick something just occurred to me in regards to 2601. Again, this is still wild conspiracy theory stuff so take this with a grain of salt.

5) doc!Amazonian protects cop!fua... but scum didn't night kill anyone. Let's think about option 3 for a second, why does the scum (possibly) attempting such a play have to be fua? I even noted in this possibility that there is no real guarantee of success which made it seem unlikely, but what if it failed? What if the scum tried to draw in the doctor for this play but ended up needlessly confirming fua?

Okay enough of that. By the way, I really like 2604. Overall I've actually liked a number of nQ's posts better than day 1, regardless of the claim.
I’m the queen of paranoid theories, but your two theories where scum decided not to kill the cop just aren’t very likely, at least in the case of most scum teams. I can’t imagine a scum team deciding to just not kill a claimed cop in a game with at least four cops without having a counter to the cop. There are just too many variables you can’t control; the risk is way too high for no guarantee of a tiny reward. Unless you can neuter the cop, thou shall not suffer a cop to live.

Having a minimum of four cops is why I also don’t think there was a no kill. Is it possible, yes, but I don’t think it’s likely at this moment.
I'm still of the camp that you are probably just town doc who healed a town cop. The chances of this very weird edge case scenario are pretty low, but I figured I might as well mention it while I'm entertaining Meg's conspiracy theory.
User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2614 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:23 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 2612, Amazonian Legends wrote:I wish I knew what implosions scum game looked like, but a few times today I’ve just thought I don’t think implosion scum does this. Like for instance, the way that implosion is handling guilty lion with the purposefully biased case. I didn’t like or buy into a lot of the case. Some parts, especially in part one, were a bit nit picky. I’ve changed my mind multiple times on a read in less than 7 minutes, so things like that didn’t resonate. GL not being paranoid is eh. I don’t know if he is usually, and not entirely sure whatthere is to be paranoid about right now. The points I did like was the push on the strength of the red tea read and the turn around on imaginality. Thought there was another one, but my brains failing me. Anyway those two points were the most salient to me. (Though for me I also disliked the bargaining and thought it made him likely scum, so I understand How someone could think that way). I think the town read on redtea is a bit overdone for someone weak reasons, even if he’s right, I just don’t buy into the optics argument that much when not coupled with other things. But why go to bat for redtea to that extent as scum. He’s not trying to stop the elimination so that he can probably fit in anyway unless the argument is that he’s trying to keep his hands clean. I also like the kind of appealing he’s been doing to shirou, thinking they’re gelling and wanting him to be town.

So yeah I just don’t know that that ^ is implosions scum game. I don’t see the agenda that others have claimed. Yesterday after mega voted ydrasse, I said to penguin that maybe she was scum after all and everyone else is seeing something that I’m not, but with enchants posts that might not be the case and my early town read on ydrasse was right. I feel the same with implosion. He doesn’t look like scum to me but with other people’s suspicion I’m like what am I missing?
Such mood. If I'm wrong about my top four/five or so I'm gonna cry, but below that hellifiknow.

Cabd wants to make you/Ceph a double voter and I don't object at all.
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2615 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:26 pm

Post by numberQ »

Got to the end of page 98 before needing to take a break. As you can imagine most of my thoughts are on Shirou. It's pretty stream of conscious, fair warning.

Spoiler: Shirou thoughts, pages 93-98ish
In post 2339, Shirou wrote:oh why am I claiming

BECAUSE GL IS SCUM

and I don't have enough energy to convince you guys in this slow ass game that he's scum, so If I die not only I get the easy way to confirm my slot that's increasingly looking like a miselimination, but also still manage to shade GL.

If GL is town I don't see why scum would nightkill me here. Tomorrow like this they would get a free no elimination day which would remove the advantage we have because we protected a townie correctly, and GL if town would still tunnel me anyway and miseliminate me even if I got an inno. "What if GL changed his mind". I think if GL changes his mind he's also scum so...?

Meg may be town

Tejate may or not be town

Right now gun to my head it's 3 out of GL/Morph/Ydra/Tejate
I really don’t think you’re increasingly looking like a mislim. And this whole plan is… weird.

Here are the outcomes:

Town!Shirou, scum!GL. Now you have to convince us that he’s scum, even though you said you don’t want to convince us that he’s scum in this “slow ass game” (which tbh I think is moving at a pretty decent pace).

Town!Shirou, town!GL. You predict that GL will tunnel you and it could result in a mislim, but at least we have confirm town in GL. Probably the best outcome of this plan, but still a -town one ultimately.

Scum!Shirou, scum!GL. Uhhh, no clue. Very unlikely I think. I’m only including this for completeness.

Scum!Shirou, town!GL. You claim guilty and trade 1 for 1 at best, which seems suboptimal when we’ve got the advantage right now. Or you claim inno and, as stated before, you’ve already predicted GL will tunnel you. So maybe a smokescreen or something for a scumbuddy?

Going to hold off on forming a solid opinion until I read further.

---
In post 2343, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 2341, Shirou wrote:WHY YOU THINK SCUM ME NEVER CLAIMS AN INNO ON YOU TO TRY TO WIFOM?
uh, yeah. Correct play for scum on D3 is to claim a guilty and use it to brute force a miselim, especially if we've already miselimmed twice

if you're scum, claiming an inno is a bad move 100% of the time
Is this still the best move when there was a protection N1 and we lim their scum buddy D2? Because now scum is down two points, and they only get a 1 for 1 trade out of this. This is assuming we do hit scum today, so if redtea is Shirou’s buddy, I don’t see the 1-for-1 scenario being the plan here.

Shirou says pretty much the same thing in the very next post.

---
In post 2351, Shirou wrote:The reason I'm doing this is because even if I go down I'm trying my best to bring GL with me.

After redtea likely flips town GL is gonna do the whole "OH SHIROU AND IMPLO WERE SO SCUMMY BY DEFENDING REDTEA" and try to get the last two miseliminations to win

I'm not fucking sitting while I watch that. If I call cop tomorrow I don't have energy enough to convince you guys away from the argument he's gonna use that "it's a desperation claim to buy a no elimination day!" either. I bet money he would get another free miselimination tomorrow on either me or implo from the way this is going.

We can also do this:

We can no eliminate today, and eliminate redtea tomorrow, and if I die you eliminate GL next. I would be fine with it as well.
Putting aside the actual validity of the plan here, how can you possibly say something like “if I die, lim GL”? It’s like you’re chugging from the WIFOM hose.

---
In post 2363, Shirou wrote:what's theoretically optimal doesn't matter once you realize GL is very very likely scum and you're gonna let him endgame from the way things are going.

The more consensus suspects seem like redtea...implo and now me?

yeah that's a mafia win in my book
Idk what this consensus is you’re talking about. redtea is the only widely SRed slot in that list. implo’s slot is in some contention, and before this whole thing I think you were pretty strongly TRed.

Looks like Tejate had the same thought.

---
In post 2376, Shirou wrote:If I'm scum with redtea as you all seem to be thinking, the worst that can happen by no eliminating one day and eliminating redtea on the other, is that you'll lose the possibility to get one extra elimination, but you'll still have nailed down two scum either way, and would have used NONE of the remaining cop checks on either of us

If I'm truly a town cop and GL is scum, if you eliminate me before I get the check on GL, you're basically gonna be likely two mislims down (me and redtea) and have no confirmed scum.
As far as I can tell GL is the main person pushing the idea that you’re scum with redtea. So “you all” seems like a bit of an overexaggeration.

And again I’m pretty sure your plan only works if we already have confidence in your reads.

---

There’s a lot more Shirou content and I’m done commenting on every single one. Suffice to say I had Shirou pretty high up my reads list before, and now I’m really seeing what GL has been saying about them. This outburst is a pretty intense emotional 180, and the entire time Shirou keeps saying how they have no energy to argue their points. But they have the energy to lay out no lim plans and, well, argue their points.

Oh and this is very strange too:
In post 2470, Shirou wrote:VOTE: no elimination

I believe we should do this but I can vote redtea as long as most people explicitly agree with this:
In post 2456, Shirou wrote:@everyone Do we agree on no elimination tomorrow?
I can't find it now but I'm pretty sure Shirou had a post just a few pages before this one saying they don't trust that we'll do the no lim tomorrow even if we agree to it today, which is why he was pushing so hard to do it today. Either I missed a change of heart or... idk. That's about as far as I got in that thought.


Going to take a break then try to push through the last few pages to be current.
Hey!
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2616 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:58 pm

Post by numberQ »

Made it through but definitely felt some fatigue the past 5 or 6 pages. Thoughts will be scattered.

---

Shirou's no lim plan still has me wary. I think redtea's flip (assuming the wagon actually manages to go through and stop sputtering) will help me decide how I feel about it.

Town!redtea I think points towards no lim being a good idea. It would be +town for Shirou so I'd be less suspicious of scum motivation behind the plan, plus we'll be two mislims in so more caution is probably a good thing.

Scum!redtea, I think we don't no lim, for essentially the exact opposite reasons.

---

I once had the same thought as Meg's paranoia over fua and AL possibly gambiting the cop/doc claim, but ultimately felt like there were too many holes and contrivances for that to be true, so I didn't bring it up. I think it's an easy hole for scum to poke in the confidence of the claims to potentially head off an unwanted fua investigation now that we have at least one protect set up to make it more likely the investigation comes to pass.

Buuuut reading back over that, I'm going to call myself out on that argument being a little reachy lol. Probably more NAI than anything for Meg to have that thought.

---
In post 2581, redtea wrote:interesting mix on/off of my wagon
This encapsulates every redtea post in the thread, every single one
Hey!
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2617 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:58 pm

Post by numberQ »

In post 2601, Tejate Raichu wrote:
In post 2600, morph the cat wrote:
In post 2599, Tejate Raichu wrote:unless you believe Amazonian is also scum
I would literally self-vote in xylim under the assumption that Spay gave me a fake town role PM than vote Amazonians at any point in this game levels of they're town.

Which is why i'm lock-towning the shit out of Fua too.
I townread them! Just pointing out that suspecting fua over possible no NK shenanigans seems like the wrong way to entertain the possibilities of N1. Realistically, there are 4 things that could have happened night one.

1) doc!Amazonian protected cop!fua. Exactly what was stated was what happened. I really see no reason to doubt this at the moment.
2) scum!Amazonian fake protects scum!fua. But why? Neither of them are like, anywhere close to being in the danger zone? Amazonian was fairly TR'd and fua was close to locktown for almost everyone but me. This really makes no sense from a motivation perspective, even as WIFOM this would be baffling?
3) doc!Amazonian protected scum!fua, mafia make no kills this night. As stated, this seems unlikely. It would essentially require mafia to make a lucky guess that A) there was a night 1 doc at all and B) that the n1 doc would protect scum. This makes no sense unless 4 cop 6 doc, again even as WIFOM.
4) scum!Amazonian "protected" cop!fua, mafia make no kills. Of the 3 possibilities besides the obvious, this seems the most likely. Amazonian is in complete control of their own claim, so this wouldn't be relying on luck to pull off in theory. And fua is just an obvious protect. This would also have the benefit of strengthening all TR's on Amazonian, which is something scum may actually consider worth not killing for after pulling off a mis-elim d1.

That being said, while I have thought about this some, I still feel like it makes the most sense that a doc protected a cop.
Mostly playing devil's advocate here, but 2 could just be to lock themselves into townreads. You don't have to be in the danger zone as scum to want that.
Hey!
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2618 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:58 pm

Post by numberQ »

In post 2593, Amazonian Legends wrote:[snip]

I could be completely offbase here. But the last part of that theory is that if scum know they have six town cops they're fighting, they're going to be positioning themselves around that now. Especially since I'd expect to see at least eight cop claims total. This means I'd expect scum to have planned their claims already and be ready to get them out there. I'm very much side-eyeing premature cop claims as such.

--PA
Why would there be 8 cop claims? Any claim split besides 6:7 or 7:6 would be suboptimal for scum because it gives more information about the setup composition. Maxing out at 7 means at most town can deduce there's a single scum in that group. Going all the way to 8 means town can guarantee there are 2 in that group.
Hey!
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2619 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:01 pm

Post by numberQ »

VOTE: redtea
Hey!
User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2620 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:15 pm

Post by morph the cat »

I'm not mad at the vote, but unless I missed something, that was hammer?

Had hoped Morph-Amazonians would have a chance to all four be current with the game and talking, but alas.
User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2621 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:18 pm

Post by morph the cat »

Oh right, 7 to elim.

That's E-1 again.
User avatar
numberQ
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
numberQ
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1502
Joined: May 26, 2011
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #2622 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:35 pm

Post by numberQ »

Yeah pretty sure E-1, that was my intent anyway
Hey!
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Tejate Raichu
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Tejate Raichu
Goon
Goon
Posts: 806
Joined: December 21, 2021
Location: PST

Post Post #2623 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:39 pm

Post by Tejate Raichu »

I was kinda hoping redtea would offer a little more than "hmm yes the game state is interesting" with no elaboration. Oh well. I have no problem with a hammer right about now.
User avatar
morph the cat
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
User avatar
User avatar
morph the cat
Sync Achieved
Sync Achieved
Posts: 9687
Joined: July 14, 2013
Location: Skagway, Alaska

Post Post #2624 (ISO) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:12 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 2623, Tejate Raichu wrote:I was kinda hoping redtea would offer a little more than "hmm yes the game state is interesting" with no elaboration. Oh well. I have no problem with a hammer right about now.
What leads you to think this is an attainable hope?

I'm NOT suggesting a hammer. Not until Tammyhydra is ready to end it.

Return to “Completed Open Games”