In post 2339, Shirou wrote:oh why am I claiming
BECAUSE GL IS SCUM
and I don't have enough energy to convince you guys in this slow ass game that he's scum, so If I die not only I get the easy way to confirm my slot that's increasingly looking like a miselimination, but also still manage to shade GL.
If GL is town I don't see why scum would nightkill me here. Tomorrow like this they would get a free no elimination day which would remove the advantage we have because we protected a townie correctly, and GL if town would still tunnel me anyway and miseliminate me even if I got an inno. "What if GL changed his mind". I think if GL changes his mind he's also scum so...?
Meg may be town
Tejate may or not be town
Right now gun to my head it's 3 out of GL/Morph/Ydra/Tejate
I really don’t think you’re increasingly looking like a mislim. And this whole plan is… weird.
Here are the outcomes:
Town!Shirou, scum!GL. Now you have to convince us that he’s scum, even though you said you don’t want to convince us that he’s scum in this “slow ass game” (which tbh I think is moving at a pretty decent pace).
Town!Shirou, town!GL. You predict that GL will tunnel you and it could result in a mislim, but at least we have confirm town in GL. Probably the best outcome of this plan, but still a -town one ultimately.
Scum!Shirou, scum!GL. Uhhh, no clue. Very unlikely I think. I’m only including this for completeness.
Scum!Shirou, town!GL. You claim guilty and trade 1 for 1 at best, which seems suboptimal when we’ve got the advantage right now. Or you claim inno and, as stated before, you’ve already predicted GL will tunnel you. So maybe a smokescreen or something for a scumbuddy?
Going to hold off on forming a solid opinion until I read further.
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In post 2343, GuiltyLion wrote: In post 2341, Shirou wrote:WHY YOU THINK SCUM ME NEVER CLAIMS AN INNO ON YOU TO TRY TO WIFOM?
uh, yeah. Correct play for scum on D3 is to claim a guilty and use it to brute force a miselim, especially if we've already miselimmed twice
if you're scum, claiming an inno is a bad move 100% of the time
Is this still the best move when there was a protection N1 and we lim their scum buddy D2? Because now scum is down two points, and they only get a 1 for 1 trade out of this. This is assuming we do hit scum today, so if redtea is Shirou’s buddy, I don’t see the 1-for-1 scenario being the plan here.
Shirou says pretty much the same thing in the very next post.
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In post 2351, Shirou wrote:The reason I'm doing this is because even if I go down I'm trying my best to bring GL with me.
After redtea likely flips town GL is gonna do the whole "OH SHIROU AND IMPLO WERE SO SCUMMY BY DEFENDING REDTEA" and try to get the last two miseliminations to win
I'm not fucking sitting while I watch that. If I call cop tomorrow I don't have energy enough to convince you guys away from the argument he's gonna use that "it's a desperation claim to buy a no elimination day!" either. I bet money he would get another free miselimination tomorrow on either me or implo from the way this is going.
We can also do this:
We can no eliminate today, and eliminate redtea tomorrow, and if I die you eliminate GL next. I would be fine with it as well.
Putting aside the actual validity of the plan here, how can you possibly say something like “if I die, lim GL”? It’s like you’re chugging from the WIFOM hose.
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In post 2363, Shirou wrote:what's theoretically optimal doesn't matter once you realize GL is very very likely scum and you're gonna let him endgame from the way things are going.
The more consensus suspects seem like redtea...implo and now me?
yeah that's a mafia win in my book
Idk what this consensus is you’re talking about. redtea is the only widely SRed slot in that list. implo’s slot is in some contention, and before this whole thing I think you were pretty strongly TRed.
Looks like Tejate had the same thought.
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In post 2376, Shirou wrote:If I'm scum with redtea as you all seem to be thinking, the worst that can happen by no eliminating one day and eliminating redtea on the other, is that you'll lose the possibility to get one extra elimination, but you'll still have nailed down two scum either way, and would have used NONE of the remaining cop checks on either of us
If I'm truly a town cop and GL is scum, if you eliminate me before I get the check on GL, you're basically gonna be likely two mislims down (me and redtea) and have no confirmed scum.
As far as I can tell GL is the main person pushing the idea that you’re scum with redtea. So “you all” seems like a bit of an overexaggeration.
And again I’m pretty sure your plan only works if we already have confidence in your reads.
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There’s a lot more Shirou content and I’m done commenting on every single one. Suffice to say I had Shirou pretty high up my reads list before, and now I’m really seeing what GL has been saying about them. This outburst is a pretty intense emotional 180, and the entire time Shirou keeps saying how they have no energy to argue their points. But they have the energy to lay out no lim plans and, well, argue their points.
Oh and this is very strange too:
In post 2470, Shirou wrote:VOTE: no elimination
I believe we should do this but I can vote redtea as long as most people explicitly agree with this:
I can't find it now but I'm pretty sure Shirou had a post just a few pages before this one saying they don't trust that we'll do the no lim tomorrow even if we agree to it today, which is why he was pushing so hard to do it today. Either I missed a change of heart or... idk. That's about as far as I got in that thought.