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[Something_Smart]

Do you think there was a busser on the Lap wagon now?

It's likely.

[Datisi]

though, i'm skeptical if outworld enters the day with "vp and skitter are the only ones that kill rtp, vp is posting badly but he's town so let me vote my partner instead huehuehue" like

imagine if the team actually is ari and andres and i'm being an idiot ahahahaa

[Something_Smart]

I have had an inordinate amount of trouble remembering Andres is in the game. Why is he town?

[Datisi]

ari and andres are town for similar reasons - they sheeped people onto lap in a very non-towncred-grabbing way, at the times where they really did not have to do it. like, why does scum andres post ANY of 593, 602, 604 at the time rtp is voting his partner? he can just as easily NOT post those posts. it's adding fuel to the fire without much gain. similarly to that, ari sheeped me on lap without question and without ever trying to divert me from him.

ari was fourth on that wagon, sure, but she was also second on that wagon right after i voted him originally - all she did on day 1 was sheep my vote. and the reason why i don't think she's scum because it just doesn't *feel* like a bus. her vote is helping move the wagon along, but she's not gaining any cred from it whatsoever. that's the reason why i don't think we had a lot of bus votes - votes like andres and ari were made in ways where they do not give towncred, and those players showed no trying to divert. like, that's how i imagine bus-votes. either the busser is making a show out of it so that they get as much towncred as possible, or they're looking for someone else to vote. ari specifically, i know she's anti-bus. i don't think she would've been playing this game by blindly sheeping me on a scum vote without even trying to divert my attention away, what does she gain with it?

ari and andres have admittedly weak votes on lapla. but those weak votes make no sense as bussing votes. what do scum!andres or scum!ari gain by blindly sheeping me/rtp onto the wagon, and not even trying to divert any attention elsehwere? they're not getting towncred for the vote, they're not opening the door for any other yeet, they're not setting up shit, they're just gamethrowing.

[Datisi]

my one and only argument for andres!town is "his vote is neither towncred-gaining nor is he looking for a different wagon, and i think scum would be doing either of that"

i don't know how correct i am in that assessment

[Frogsterking]

I have had an inordinate amount of trouble remembering Andres is in the game. Why is he town?

RTP vetoed it for D1 said andres is in town meta and lunchbait and late game beast so we should keep him D1 even though we feel like voting him. Does that advice still apply now? Kinda I think so.

[Frogsterking]

Do you think there was a busser on the Lap wagon now?

It's likely.

Okay, do you think it's likely there were TWO bussers on the Lap wagon?

[Something_Smart]

my one and only argument for andres!town is "his vote is neither towncred-gaining nor is he looking for a different wagon, and i think scum would be doing either of that"

i don't know how correct i am in that assessment

That doesn't feel towny with my perception that scum expected Lap to die from pretty early on.

[Frogsterking]

If it's scum!skitter + 1 busser maybe they weren't anticipating VP would claim and clear a50 in the process so they thought it would be safe to take out RTP because VP and a50 would still be on the PoE.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, do you think it's likely there were TWO bussers on the Lap wagon?

Uh idk. I don't feel like there's a strong argument either way.

[Frogsterking]

So I guess the list of potential bussers who aren't BWing skitter right now might be a good place to look.

VCs:

Spoiler:

Laplacian (7):

Reformed Toxic Player,

Andresvmb,

Datisi, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking,

Almost50

With 13 alive, it took 7 to eliminate.

skitter30 (3):

Datisi, Aristeia, OutWorldER

With 11 alive, it's 6 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is February 7 at 8:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-07 21:00:00)

Andresvmb, House, Frogsterking, Almost50

are the potential bussers who aren't bwing skitter.

So fmpov if I choose to believe everything I heard today and last night, including reading House as town based on dayplay, skitter and andres are the most likely scum team.

So the bias here is that skitter and andres have also spoken the least, so being that the general voices of the crowd are pushing me in a direction toward them, maybe that's not too surprising.

so if I assume that skitter and andres are NOT the correct solve, maybe I can work backwards and isolate the voices until I have a coherent whole with a minimum amount of assumptions.

[House]

my one and only argument for andres!town is "his vote is neither towncred-gaining nor is he looking for a different wagon, and i think scum would be doing either of that"

i don't know how correct i am in that assessment

Doesn't really apply when he's never here to participate.

[VP Baltar]

@1615 Your Datisi push at the beginning of the day was really tinfoily and reachy. The "chain elim" argument is something I've seen from town before when they're paranoid about a slot and it's usually a bad argument since it's much more likely that the slot in question is just looking through potential associatives.

So let me ask if you agree with datisi it is unlikely the other two scum were on a Lap bus. You think both scum were off wagon?

[VP Baltar]

If it's scum!skitter + 1 busser maybe they weren't anticipating VP would claim and clear a50 in the process so they thought it would be safe to take out RTP because VP and a50 would still be on the PoE.

On what planet would anyone anticipate the play I made? That was the whole point of me making that play, it is very unpredictable.

[MathBlade]

I think the most likely is one and one. Both would be a bit heavy handed and from what I have read didn’t seem like that.

[VP Baltar]

I think the most likely is one and one. Both would be a bit heavy handed and from what I have read didn’t seem like that.

This is my guess as well.

I don't have that much of a strong instinct for which of the folks on was it. I went into the night hoping it was A50 and this was easy, but that's just not the case.

I find it fairly unlikely neither remaining scum would want to be on the lap wagon when he was so underwater. That would seem like a POE risk to me if I was scum.

[MathBlade]

Correct. That’s why I am voting Ari. Still catching up but the move off of Lap to IV is sus. It matches the initial hop I would expect then back on when the wagon was a foregone conclusion. I haven’t read her plop back on but that’s what the vote count says

[MathBlade]

I also don’t like how Frog is clearing Ari without a good reason.

[Frogsterking]

Introduction: Everybody Makes Mistakes

Spoiler:

im not a big "explain" person

i just sense energies

and i share those energies

and those energies are very likely to be correct

I cant really vocalize it but laplacian isnt a towny bumbling - its something in their language choice and how they approach the game that its from a solved perspective where they know the correct answers but have to avoid them

Is it tone, syntax, behavior?

A mix of the first 2.

Fwiw my very first normal game was against a scum vp baltar and i correctly clocked them as scum d2 even through a pr claim

Above is the setup for catching the first scum while allowing a second scum to slip through the cracks.

Contrast the above approach with the below:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

yes but you are townreading someone off vibes - so at a minimum you should know if those vibes are actually AI?

The vibes I use are based on the gamestate not a player.

Sort of like when the hero in a movie knows when there’s bad mojo.

Reading people is a weakness but games as a whole is strong.

It’s why I am good at TRs and shit at SRs

In other words:

Ari: Says correct thing
Mathblade: egoegoego

It’s not ego it’s playstyle difference
I am on the spectrum so trying to be neurotypical leads to fights
So instead I hunt in my own way

Like by vibing you mean the context of how a player would be acting based on the stage of the game, what they're trying to achieve, and how their posts are going after achieving that goal? As opposed to the emotional tone and syntax of their post?

Correct. That’s like most of it yeah.

Okay, so what were the consequences of following the first approach?

Lap gets executed which is good, but this also happens:

Spoiler:

i think ari is town :3

ari v house is tvt

I think you're town.

I think OWER's iso regarding you/lapla is not great

nobody is even suspecting you.

OWER IS TOWN

YOURE TOWN

SIITTER IS TOWN

HOUSE IS TOWN

DATISI IS TOWN

just fuckin trust me for d1

This is one of my d1s where I'm fucking up scum just let me do my thing

Okay, so how do we fix it?

Spoiler:

VOTE: Ari

Don’t mind me I am just a lurkin

Okay, well then where's the evidence?

Spoiler:

Have you actually read the game mathblade?

I have head the like 4-5 pages that game up this morning
VP v Dat seems like a TvT shitfest
You seem content to egg Dat on and push VP

Then combined with a little VCA meaning Andres and you only potential bussers left means I want to see some pressure on you while I do

Yes this checks out. Ari is pushing the not-having-read the game angle because Math has newly entered the game and is interrupting Ari's narrative and dynamic between the players.

Vote Count 1.01

Datisi (5):

VP Baltar, Aristeia, skitter30, House, Reformed Toxic Player

Not Voting (8):

Andresvmb, Almost50, Datisi, Frogsterking, innocentvillager, Laplacian, OutWorldER, Something_Smart

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

This doesn’t happen without a scum on it lol

I don't know about this, but I appreciate the theory.

VP is miselim bait imho

House is well House
RTP is flipped

Means a scum in you / Skitter

Bus vote seems to be you/Andres

So either you’re scum or Skitter+Andres is a fine start point

Right. It took me a while to figure this part out, but I got there. And skitter+andres is not a fine start point. They are both easy pushes at the moment. That's why the wagons are developing the way they are IMO, it's called recency bias, we haven't heard much from them recently so we're trusting them less.

Is there any reason skitt and OutworldER CANT be the scum team?

Lack of votes on Lap makes it unlikely.
Skitter is experienced scum and knows optics well.
When you play with experienced people they know to put at least one player on a scum wagon for cred. So since majority of game is experienced leads to Ari/Andres and Andres D1 is better than Ari’s so far.

I can get behind this.

i'm not sure if t/t or t/s, but i don't think it's s/s

if it's t/s i think dats is t and ari is s

I actually agree with this. Maybe Skitter needed time to warm up?

Ari/Skitter is out of the question based on this post

I eliminated Ari/Skitter a different way, I eliminated Ari/Skitter based on Ari's day 2 dayplay including but not limited to joining the bandwagon.

Spoiler: placeholder so I can laugh at myself later

Datisi
House
RTP
Skitter
A50

PoE has like no scum and vote is on Lap.
Seems still typical scum play

Yes!

This has to be the earliest I've caught scum.

This has to be the earliest I disagree with House and townread him for it

Idk why, it's not like we're ever been surfing the same wavelength in any games we've ever been in, in the history of everything.

For Datisi to be scum there’s have to be an intentional plan to RVS him.

It’s much more believable that it was a coordinated scum attempt to get him off his game than that.

Again, not personally sure about this part, but it's interesting.

Spoiler: placeholder so I can laugh at myself later

Datisi
House
RTP
Skitter
A50

PoE has like no scum and vote is on Lap.
Seems still typical scum play

those are townreads

K then you still haven’t expressed a scumread or done anything to push Lap so still bad

can you stop being tunneled on me!scum and actually read the game without confbiasing yourself.

This is me reading the game.

Until you do something meritting a townread you don’t get one

This is a scum line from Ari, Math is building a case and reading the game, maybe some of it is confbias but the logic is not overall.

VOTE: IV

that was easy

Oooh vote off a buddy at flimsiest excuse without reasons still.

Spicy. My vote is good.

You want to be townread, earn it by doing something.

Mathblade

You don't know if I am doing something

because you literally have not read the game.

That is me reading the game.
Up til that point your votes have been naked and you’ve spent you’re entire ISO buddying Dat.

Nailed it. Mathblade has quite literally "read" the game. This is a continued weak resistance from Ari.

Okay, I'm convinced, but what do I do about it?

VOTE: Ari

Epilogue: Everybody Makes Mistakes II

Spoiler:

Hey guys I read Lap's most recent posts as pr so don't wagon him please if he doesn't seem to be town telling.

There is literally zero town motivation in this post.

Hey I agree with House here!

Ari Frog?

Nope.

Why do you think these responses are towny? The Datisi one I can maybe maybe see, but definitely not the VP Baltar one.

Counterpoint, mine was the towniest answer.

Why?

Because that is what I would do as scum. Take the survey and just tank the results by lying.

Idk maybe, that feels way too first order though. I think scum could approach this in more ways than just that. Maybe it's because I got here late after he posted the survey, but I don't really feel there's that much benefit for scum to take the survey at all.

I already proved it isn't effective by pulling his reads from the last game he used it in.

Posting it is NAI at best imo. It isn't going to lead to actually catching scum, and that's my main problem with it. If he's town, I'd like to dissuade him from pulling this in future games.

That's not how math works - if I claim to have a model that predicts a 50% event with 75% probability and I predict wrong in one instance, that doesn't prove my model is trash.

ok vp's town

Okay, why?

Okay I am pausing here to do some fun stuff.
The bad math makes me want to cry.

Okay thanks for laying out the case, you go cry and tinfoil how to force Lap/Frog into your good scum!Ari read, I'll push this out and brainstorm for the third scum.

[Aristeia]

Correct. That’s why I am voting Ari. Still catching up but the move off of Lap to IV is sus. It matches the initial hop I would expect then back on when the wagon was a foregone conclusion. I haven’t read her plop back on but that’s what the vote count says

the hop where I follow Datisi is suspicious to you.

Amazing

[Frogsterking]

I noticed some slightly different things which lead me to believe the case Math laid out (which I assembled) in 1668. I can make a case out of the things I noticed on my own if you really want but they're kind of weird.

[Frogsterking]

I noticed some slightly different things which lead me to believe the case Math laid out (which I assembled) in 1668. I can make a case out of the things I noticed on my own if you really want but they're kind of weird.

Math made progress on his read a lot faster as well.

[Aristeia]

I'd defend myself but I think it would only make you double down on your incorrect read and ultimately be a waste of my time.

[MathBlade]

So I guess the list of potential bussers who aren't BWing skitter right now might be a good place to look.

VCs:

Spoiler:

Laplacian (7):

Reformed Toxic Player,

Andresvmb,

Datisi, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking,

Almost50

With 13 alive, it took 7 to eliminate.

skitter30 (3):

Datisi, Aristeia, OutWorldER

With 11 alive, it's 6 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is February 7 at 8:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-07 21:00:00)

Andresvmb, House, Frogsterking, Almost50

are the potential bussers who aren't bwing skitter.

So fmpov if I choose to believe everything I heard today and last night, including reading House as town based on dayplay, skitter and andres are the most likely scum team.

So the bias here is that skitter and andres have also spoken the least, so being that the general voices of the crowd are pushing me in a direction toward them, maybe that's not too surprising.

so if I assume that skitter and andres are NOT the correct solve, maybe I can work backwards and isolate the voices until I have a coherent whole with a minimum amount of assumptions.

So how exactly did you go from Ari not bussing to Ari bussing?

And what does BW stand for?

[MathBlade]

Correct. That’s why I am voting Ari. Still catching up but the move off of Lap to IV is sus. It matches the initial hop I would expect then back on when the wagon was a foregone conclusion. I haven’t read her plop back on but that’s what the vote count says

the hop where I follow Datisi is suspicious to you.

Amazing

Correct. It looks like you care more about pocketing Datisi than getting scum with the IV vote.