Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[fua]

If anyone pushes Enchant they should be turbolimmed.

[MegAzumarill]

shoves Enchant

whoops

[fua]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

[morph the cat]

...Interesting.

Have you played in a game with popcorn claiming before, Tejate?

Nope.

Generally speaking with popcorn claims, you ask your largest scum suspect to claim next, as to give your suspects the least info possible when claiming in order.

[Shirou]

Hm, on second thought I'll give you guys the director's cut version maybe

If the consensus is already that it's not very optimal to vote me today, it's good enough.

Feeling a bit lazy about writing walls, also this game has too many long posts already either way...so director's cut version it is.

[Shirou]

okay actually I just realized while typing

We really should stop the claims

I think the most beneficial thing here for town would be to risk everything to get another save in night actions

We shouldn't expose our doctors here beyond what we already did imo. We're throwing away our chance on an extra elimination by massclaiming right now.

[Shirou]

Tejate claimed but it's still okay in my opinion because it confirms fua shouldn't die tonight as long as Tejate is town, and fua night action is tonight

it's still ok to stop at the moment I think, even if kinda suboptimal compared to not claiming anything at all...?

Although there's a positive fact about this: since the designated fua doctor is already outed, any other doctors should target other players to attempt on giving us another save for an extra elimination.

[Shirou]

okay, back to typing

[morph the cat]

Am I wrong in thinking the amount of ATE coming out of your slot this game is pretty atypical

You've already demonstrated you lack the experience to read my outrage accurately. I'll say experience because I do think you're able to do better at reading my reactions to a bullshit game situation, but you're being lazy and I don't think you'll put the work in to do remedial ffery meta in the first place.

You're town to me. but ffs pull your socks up.

If townreading you is a requirement for entry, the big kids' table is actually just for cowards.

DAAAAAMN. That was savage.[/quote]



I think mass claiming is pretty sub-optimal but y'all do y'all.

--------------------

vote: GuiltyLion

His reaction to fua's fake claim was ass.

redtea/GL/???

[Shirou]

So

Yesterday when I said I wanted to no eliminate today (day 3) it was mostly a bluff. I thought no eliminating yesterday made a bit more sense since I was unsure of redtea's alignment but favoring no elimination after their flip was kinda made up (I'll explain why below).

Me claiming early may make little sense if you approach this as if I was very confident on redtea alignment, but the truth is I didn't, that's why I ended up voting they by the end anyway. The more GL/Tejate talked, the more I began to notice that it was likely as if they were posting in preparation to what would happen after redtea's flip to me and implo. It felt very much like someone that already knew how things would play out
and were playing their trajectory for the next day.

Therefore, I believed at least one of them were scum and still kinda think so, and at the time I did scum read GL more than Tejate so I focused on him.

If I didn't claim at all, and redtea flipped town, if I did put effort (what I truly didn't want to tbh) I could perhaps fight back the predicted Tejate/GL push on me today and be in a good position to even lead on them maybe. However, I thought if I bet all my chips that redtea was flipping town, if they did flip scum (as it actually happened), I could very well become today elimination without being able to get my result.

Therefore...I gambled.

I made myself look like a bit of a madman back there to get people at least a bit suspicious of me, claimed my role, and as a bonus I proposed no elimination while focusing on shading GL.

Q: Why act like a madman to get a bit of suspicious on me?
A: If redtea flipped town, to hopefully increase the choices of living through night 2 by looking like a potential miselimination later on. If redtea flipped scum, I believe I would be under suspicious either way, so I figured I may as well hurt my slot in long-term (by making my slot almost a necessity to eliminate at some point) while benefiting me in short-term (increasing the odds I'm not the D3 elimination so that I can get my result). I'm just trying to avoid the worst possible scenario and also...something else that may or not come up later.

Q: Why claim my role early?
A: If redtea flipped town although it would still help me have an easier time pushing back any attempts to vote me today, it was more of a decision based on trying to avoid the worst-case scenario of "redtea flips scum > I'm D3 elimination before I get my cop check". It's also really true that I was and still am not in the mood to put a lot of effort on this game, so even if redtea flipped town and I was the NK for claiming cop early, I believe that would likely cause GL to die anyway, and he was going to be my cop check either way.
It was the lazy way to do it all but that's kinda why I did it as well.

Q:Why propose no elimination?
A: Because even if redtea flipped town and GL was scum for example, as long as they believed I was gonna push for a no elimination rather than an elimination on them, they had something to gain by leaving me alive for today. At minimum they could nullify our actual night advantage from a no nightkill N1, but there was also more that they could try to get from it. I did think however it wasn't that bad of a day to perhaps no eliminate yesterday, and today do redtea (so that I would be almost guaranteed to live until N3 since we would be on a dilemma), but yeah, I don't think think a no elimination is good at all.

As implo had pointed out, I thought no elimination was mechanically kinda bad before, and still think this way, so I basically lied on that yesterday for said motives above, but I also thought no eliminating yesterday and doing redtea would be an easy way to survive until N3 at least, but still, I decided to do a bit of a song and dance that I was convinced by GL and vote for someone anyway.

Q: Why do a 180º on the trajectory before that I was beginning to think redtea may be scum, to say that redtea must be GL designated miselimination?
A: Well...because I was already gonna be suspected anyway if redtea flipped scum, but if redtea flipped town that trajectory would give more ammo today to push him, or if I was NK'd, make sure that his slot is thrown in scrutinity.

TL;DR: Hmm, basically I was uncertain about what redtea was gonna flip but wanted to reduce at all costs the risk of ever being the elimination before I get my result if they flipped scum. I kinda acted a bit on some parts I guess, but either way all I ask is not to believe I'm town here necessarily, but just not to vote me today yeah.

[fua]

Am I wrong in thinking the amount of ATE coming out of your slot this game is pretty atypical

You've already demonstrated you lack the experience to read my outrage accurately. I'll say experience because I do think you're able to do better at reading my reactions to a bullshit game situation, but you're being lazy and I don't think you'll put the work in to do remedial ffery meta in the first place.

You're town to me. but ffs pull your socks up.

If townreading you is a requirement for entry, the big kids' table is actually just for cowards.

DAAAAAMN. That was savage.



I think mass claiming is pretty sub-optimal but y'all do y'all.

--------------------

vote: GuiltyLion

His reaction to fua's fake claim was ass.

redtea/GL/???

You have to admit it was a pretty damn good comeback.

fixed busted quote tags, not interpreting this post as a vote as it was clearly not intended -- mod

[Shirou]

huh, that ended up being a wall anyway

but dunno how I could make it any shorter hmmm

well either way that's it, I kinda played a bit with a ~scum mindset~ by being survivalistic, and it's fine if you all think I should be eliminated later for it (I know, kinda defeatist as I accused Imaginality but at this point I do believe I'm objectively not a bad elimination on other people's pov), however...yeah just vote someone else for today please?

That's all I wanted to say in regards to my claim/my posts yesterday.

[Shirou]

about my reads today...hm, I'm less confident but I still mostly believe there's scum in Tejate/GL/Morph yeah.

[Shirou]

I'll be honest though, I get a scummy vibe from fua and would probably be suspecting them if it wasn't for the doc save, but I also know voting they here at all is kinda gamethrowing bad if it turns out we're wrong, so I believe mathematically speaking is just better to let they win if they are scum that gambited here on N1.

Like, Meg even said the above yesterday and now Amazon dies, Amazon was a sensible NK either way for me, but it would also make sense for scum!fua to target them to ~confirm~ themselves more with the gambit.

Forget I ever talked about this from now on though, I doubt I would ever vote fua here in any scenario.

[Shirou]

I sincerely believe we should stop massclaiming as well as I said before.

Also...I think it'll affect one idea I've for tomorrow. But blah, I guess you would need to trust me and you kinda don't.

Either way, I'm checking GL tonight yes.

See you, gonna have dinner now.

[Shirou]

(not sure if I should vote GL today though...he's valuable if town)

[morph the cat]

I'd be a lot more trusting of your intent to cop GL if you hadn't worked so damn hard to knock the wheels off the redtea wagon on day 1, and went so overboard pushing a no-elim yesterday.

[Shirou]

I'd be a lot more trusting of your intent to cop GL if you hadn't worked so damn hard to knock the wheels off the redtea wagon on day 1, and went so overboard pushing a no-elim yesterday.

yeah hm, I don't have a comeback to that except...a kind of argument that no one here would buy?

therefore, since no one would buy it I'm gonna put on a spoiler, up to each one if they want to read or not (I warned!)

Spoiler:

eh my unique comeback to that is...I doubt I would be in this kind of position here if I was scum...?

I'm not

that

dumb, even if I wanted to protect redtea if they were my partner, I could simply push Imaginality harder rather than constantly trying to defend accusations to redtea. What I did here would be a very poor way of trying to deflect suspicious on your buddy.

Hmm, I think NSG overestimate my scum game but maybe you should at least believe her words a bit in the extent of "he can't possibly be THIS bad/obvious as scum right?"

/shrug

Even if you argue I may have done it as WIFOM, that kind of risky wifom only works with people that know you and expect better from you, but I've literally no experience with most of this playerlist.

Oh well, I know it's the kind of argument no one buys until postgame though. But at least future advice for future games maybe?

[GuiltyLion]

His reaction to fua's fake claim was ass.

how was it ass

[GuiltyLion]

I've skimmed Shirou's wall and still need to actually read it closer and digest the arguments being made but like

dude, if you are town, in this game and in all future games with me can you please cut any of this gambit shit and acting or whatever? your reads are not as good as you think they are, and being manipulative to achieve whatever ends you want based on your reads just winds up making you look... manipulative, and leads to you now having to write these long ass walls where you're explaining ~ secret motivations ~ to what you were doing. it just makes your slot fundamentally harder to read and harder to trust.

like all of this is basically what you would need to say if you were scum and had a meltdown about your buddy being eliminated, right? so why am I supposed to prefer an explanation where you're actually town ~ gambiting ~ instead of just scum playing to a scum-agenda?

ultimately you claim to have done all this because you think I'm scum who was going to try to eliminate you today. I'm not scum, and if you hadn't been defending and townreading redtea so hard and just helped lim them I probably wouldn't have been suspecting you at all today. instead, none of any of your play around redtea or Tejate/myself has felt like it helped us find scum or do anything productive, the only thing you have accomplished so far was making yourself a massive obstacle towards limming Actual Scum yesterday

[morph the cat]

His reaction to fua's fake claim was ass.

how was it ass

I'm inclined to believe fua's claimed result, morph is definitely in my POE and I share similar feelings that it felt like they were posturing and stalling/non-committing on redtea throughout yesterday. I also don't think implo/Shirou together as a team would make much sense, I doubt both scum buds go hard on trying to protect a buddy together like they did. I agree with Tejate I think Shirou's D2 posting at the end of the day yesterday is hard to understand coming from town. I also did a little bit of rereading and rethinking last night and I get more vibes from implosion that he was genuinely uninformed about redtea, Shirou also seemed to bounce his read around redtea is town LHF or redtea scum whenever it was convenient for whatever argument he was pushing at the time.

The main reasons I had for townreading morph were:
- AL didn't seem too concerned about them yet
- I liked when they seemed to be re-evaluating on Tejate in 2198, I thought that was more likely genuine at a time when scum could be setting up to hop on Tejate

but the second reason is not super great, I could see it coming from scum just trying to bank some towncred by projecting mixed feelings or uncertainty on Tejate

the one thing I want to ask fua just to do my due diligence - fua, why did you write the case on morph first if you were planning on immediately outing your result after their first response? Why not just open with your result?

The way you hedged.

You believed fua's fake claim but your reasons for townreading us before the fake claim hadn't been overturned.

The "due diligence" is pure hedge and I feel very much that you saw a potential opportunity to elim us and then turn on fua on day 4.

And after fua retracted their claim you've had jack to say the fake claim OR about us.

[GuiltyLion]

uhhh

it should be pretty obvious those reasons aren't especially compelling reasons to have somebody as strong town, especially in light of another player claiming to have a guilty result

how am I "hedging" by asking fua that question? do you think at any point I was going to actually suspect/accuse fua of lying? I wanted to understand what the thought process was, because it was a little bit of an odd way to play a guilty.

I still think you're POE scum, none of that has really changed based on fua retracting the claim, just makes the game slightly harder than it would have been if it were a true guilty. what would you have expected town!GL to say, that I haven't said?

[Shirou]

I've skimmed Shirou's wall and still need to actually read it closer and digest the arguments being made but like

dude, if you are town, in this game and in all future games with me can you please cut any of this gambit shit and acting or whatever? your reads are not as good as you think they are, and being manipulative to achieve whatever ends you want based on your reads just winds up making you look... manipulative, and leads to you now having to write these long ass walls where you're explaining ~ secret motivations ~ to what you were doing. it just makes your slot fundamentally harder to read and harder to trust.

like all of this is basically what you would need to say if you were scum and had a meltdown about your buddy being eliminated, right? so why am I supposed to prefer an explanation where you're actually town ~ gambiting ~ instead of just scum playing to a scum-agenda?

ultimately you claim to have done all this because you think I'm scum who was going to try to eliminate you today. I'm not scum, and if you hadn't been defending and townreading redtea so hard and just helped lim them I probably wouldn't have been suspecting you at all today. instead, none of any of your play around redtea or Tejate/myself has felt like it helped us find scum or do anything productive, the only thing you have accomplished so far was making yourself a massive obstacle towards limming Actual Scum yesterday

I didn't do this because I think my reads are super good at all? It's precisely because I thought redtea was more likely town than not but was afraid of being wrong that I did all of this?

Even if you're town GL, or Tejate town, it wouldn't make much difference? You could miseliminate me even if you're both town, and I just wanted to avoid that one scenario with the least amount of effort possible. I literally did all this to avoid my miselimination before my result in the worst case scenario, not because I necessarily think you're scum in all scenarios here...? I don't think you got my point there but it's fine.

I do agree though that it's a pain in the ass to read that kind of stuff from a third person's pov, and also that I negatively impacted the game by delaying redtea elimination. That part is my bad.

[Shirou]

Sorry if it felt that way to anyone else as well. I don't think my reads are good at all. That's why I did it...I was afraid of being wrong and being the miselimination today before I could out my result.

Honestly it kinda made me sad now that you think that way of me GL, but it's fine, I guess it's not an unreasonable way to view it...

[GuiltyLion]

The more GL/Tejate talked, the more I began to notice that it was likely as if they were posting in preparation to what would happen after redtea's flip to me and implo. It felt very much like someone that already knew how things would play out
and were playing their trajectory for the next day.

can you go back and highlight where you felt I was doing this

I didn't even start suspecting you until

after

you started accusing me of being scummy

regardless of any of redtea, Meg, or Tejate's alignments

. Which I called out as a fundamentally disingenuous way of treating me. YOU were the one playing to a trajectory, not me

Let's check the receipts:

I think the unique warning/hot take I've about redtea right now is towards GL

Sure I would be okay with compromising on redtea if the slot isn't replaced/completely change their approach here, but if redtea flips town, I do think I'll give GL a scum lean.

If redtea is town I feel like the probability that this is scum!GL trying to redirect us into the LHF is quite high, if one of Meg/Tejate are scum.

GL, you seem to have an issue the ~confidence~ that implosion has about redtea being town, but conversely I kinda am still a bit puzzled about how ~confident~ you're about their slot being scum.

I'm saying confidence weirdly like that because I know both of you already said it's not exactly confidence, but the thing is implosion is almost always assuming redtea is town or at least not a very good vote right now (kinda?), and it feels you're mostly always assuming they're scum/a very good vote, since D1.

It feels like you're in fact both doing a similar thing, but each on a different side of the coin more or less? But I suppose since I agree with implosion points/logic/pov more than yours (and I town lean him), to me personally it means your posts bug me more than implo's.

also one last thing

it's an unfair take I know but even if I'll give scum points for GL if redtea flips town, I don't think I'll give that many town points if they flip scum...

it's like I said before, the confidence that redtea is scum seems a bit overdone to me...I would still suspect that GL may or not have thrown his most fragile teammate under the bus to gain town cred.

I don't think at any point prior to these posts was I setting up to push you after redtea, but if my memory is wrong by all means highlight the posts that gave you that impression. But in my mind THESE posts are where I fully reset my townread on you and started seeing your play as scum-siding. I had you as town defending redtea up until you started finding ways to scumread me for both town!redtea and scum!redtea universes, had you not taken this angle at all I probably would have been happily still omgusing on implo