Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[morph the cat]

3000 and a pagetop?

mine.

[Tejate Raichu]

<ultimasnip>
Shirou: Enchant/fua/GuiltyLion
fua: implosion/Meg/morph
implosion: numberQ/Shirou/Tejate
<gigasnip>

Regarding this, can I also add that I don't think a Shirou check is that valuable at this point, but if we're going to include him in the pool could we maybe let fua have it? I'm still entertaining redtea/Shirou/implo, so I'd rather not have my second biggest scumread check my biggest scumread thanks.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't really think implo claims N3 cop if it's redtea/Shirou/implo, just way too much of an all in at that point especially if fua gets a guilty on either one

[morph the cat]

You have an interesting way of applying Ockham's razor, GL.

[GuiltyLion]

You have an interesting way of applying Ockham's razor, GL.

I'm not following what this is in response to?

[morph the cat]

It's in response to your reply to Tejate.

But I have different question for you.

You say you're now scumreading us, and yet you seem to be trying to convince me that I'm wrong about you. What are you trying to accomplish with this back and forth?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not trying to convince you that you're wrong about me, I'm trying to understand why you think I'm scum and determine if I feel that's genuine or not

[GuiltyLion]

You say you're now scumreading us

also, it's not that I'm "now" scumreading you, you've been in my POE since yesterday

however, if you are town, then I think that points pretty strongly towards numberQ as the POE third wolf rather than you

[GuiltyLion]

I think my current working theory is like

AL, fua, Ceph are locktown, but AL/Ceph are kinda taking the backseat and not driving so much, giving scum room to drive discussion

Meg/Tejate are limbait townies scum is planning on miseliminating

redtea is scum

there is another scum in implo/Shirou defending them so much (hot take wild conspiracy theory would be both but I don't really want to confbias myself that much yet)

and then the pool of people I need to sort more definitively alongside the implo/Shirou group is numberQ, Ydrasse, morph. All of them feel fairly town to me, numberQ especially I've liked a lot of his posts today, but it's not impossible there's a deep scum in there just coasting (assuming there is a town in implo/Shirou).

I thought about my "nobody is bussing redtea" thing but I think it's stupid, in a set up with so many cops scum probably don't want to bus unless they absolutely have to

this is still basically where my reads are at, even throughout all the hubbub of Shirou's claim yesterday. YdrassEnchant is a more confident TR now

I dunno how to respond the suggestion that I lack "paranoia" this game, I'm not going to be paranoid until my primary suspects flip green and my gamestate view is proven off the mark, imaginality flipping town was a bummer but not like wildly surprising. Maybe in a normal game I'd be a little more cautious around fua/Ceph slots but with mechanical information in their favor I put a lot of stock into that, especially since it's still just D2.

this is

still

my operating framework since mid-late D2, though Enchant is now basically a locktown, implosion stock is rising, numberQ stock falling

[morph the cat]

My stance on you is quite genuine. And if you're scum you know that it's going to be the stance of a town hydra who usually has good reads and whose day 1 strong townreads have already become either facts, or the gamestate has evolved to make those townreads look damn good so far.

A problem I have with how you're approaching me is that if I were scum here then all I would be doing is spewing you town here by my stance when I flip, which is very likely to happen today.

To anyone outside us who can't bank on either of our alignments maybe they can see an off chance this is mega-distancing if we're the last two scum and you're the one with a chance of going long enough.

But to you, if you're town then then my approach here is quixotic. It doesn't save me today. It doesn't scumpaint you if you're right about your flip.

And if you're truly trying to figure me out, then the interactions should be more evenly initiated, rather than you mostly reacting to me.

I've entered a place of calm in this game where everything I do is limned with a light -- the light of knowing my alignment is going to be confirmed soon and my interactions with you and with everyone else still alive in this game become town-me <--> ??? you. And maybe I'm onto something here.

What is it about numbers the player and his body of work here suggests to you that scum him would gambit a cop result on N1?

Because that would have to have happened for him to be proceeding with an informed town-lean on us -- which is the suggestion you've advanced.

[morph the cat]

To me, your stance on numbers looks like you're setting up to pivot on him after my flip.

[GuiltyLion]

My stance on you is quite genuine. And if you're scum you know that it's going to be the stance of a town hydra who usually has good reads and whose day 1 strong townreads have already become either facts, or the gamestate has evolved to make those townreads look damn good so far.

A problem I have with how you're approaching me is that if I were scum here then all I would be doing is spewing you town here by my stance when I flip, which is very likely to happen today.

I mean I'm trying to decide if I want your flip to happen today, part of me is thinking we just no lim it and shake out the

three

cop checks. I don't think your flip is a given here at all - not that that should say anything about my alignment really

But to you, if you're town then then my approach here is quixotic. It doesn't save me today. It doesn't scumpaint you if you're right about your flip.

And if you're truly trying to figure me out, then the interactions should be more evenly initiated, rather than you mostly reacting to me.

I mean it might save you today? What do you think scum!you would be doing today that's different from what you've done?

I have been initiating interactions... 2818, 2821, 2831, 2979

yes, a lot of these are in response to thinks you've said or things you've said about me, but they're open ended engagements meant to dig into why you're saying what you're saying. That's how I figure people out, press them on what they've posted and then try to decide how I feel about their answers. There's not much outside of your posts that I would want to 'initiate' an interaction over, other than numberQ, which I also did in 2995

What is it about numbers the player and his body of work here suggests to you that scum him would gambit a cop result on N1?

Because that would have to have happened for him to be proceeding with an informed town-lean on us -- which is the suggestion you've advanced.

I'll answer this in detail a little later when I have more time and energy, though I did case/suspect him several times throughout D1 which you are free to go reread. The gist of it would be basically that he's given safe, reasonable sounding posts while not actually doing a whole lot to take hard stances/votes on main threads of the game, D1 especially he kinda just tunneled Ceph at a time when Ceph was not the priority slot to resolve nor one that other players were really engaging with numberQ on.

I've already said a few times as well that I don't think gambiting a cop inno on D1 is especially useful/good scum play, which is why I've been iffy on numberQ being scum ever since. But it's not totally impossible/unreasonable that his plan might be to make a fairly safe, non-controversial claim as early as possible, to give it legitimacy when we enter the counterclaim clusterfuck stage of mid-lategame.

Also, you said a couple times now that you think his play is consistent, my counter to that is that consistency is not intrinsically townie. It's not especially scummy, but it's not really a great reason to think somebody is town.

[GuiltyLion]

To me, your stance on numbers looks like you're setting up to pivot on him after my flip.

this though, you're not wrong! because if you are town then I think that makes numberQ likely scum, and so if you flip town then yeah, I would pivot to him.

[GuiltyLion]

if I may indulge in a little Shirou style self-aware tangential diatribe on mafia philosophy, I feel like it's wonky when people act like someone suspecting somebody, while also thinking somebody else would look scummy if that suspect were to flip town, is something that only scum would do to chain miselims. I'm almost never 100% confident in my scumreads and I'm always trying to think about what the game looks like if/when I'm wrong. It's also the easiest way to offer an olive branch to your scumreads to try to see if you have mutual scumreads elsewhere, what the gamestate looks like from their assumed-town PoV.

for me to not be suspecting numberQ (or anyone else for that matter) in any capacity today, it would require me to be

fully convinced

that morph/Shirou is the scum team, and that's just not how I operate. I've been wrong too many times to be that full of myself. I think Shirou's prob scum, and then I'm like 40% morph, 35% numberQ, 25% the field on a third scum. And Shirou might not even be scum! so why would I mindlessly tunnel a morph elim without even trying to be openminded that you might be town? why do I get assigned scumpoints for trying to reach out to you to say "hey, if you are town, to me it looks like numberQ reacted to the fake guilty in a way that reflects an informed perspective"?

[morph the cat]

I mean it might save you today? What do you think scum!you would be doing today that's different from what you've done?

This is a terrible question to ask someone like me, because while I'm self-aware enough to know my limitations as any alignment, and know that those limitations are being stretched, especially with every scum game. Mostly due to a statistically improbable low number of scum games for someone whose forum mafia games must number well over 200 overall, and definitely well over 100 at MS.

So while I know what I couldn't have done here as scum and also what I could do, I don't know if the next time I draw scum those limits won't have moved.

But, anyway, if I decided to bus a partner as early as I was on redtea, as opposed to try to help her, I would have been positioning as uber-opposed to moving from redtea to imaginality, even if I didn't do much to prevent it happening.

With Cabd in this hydra that makes coaching and protecting redtea much more of a certainty.

The other stuff that I would have done differently as scum mostly come down to being in a hydra with a much better scum player, and yet I'm the one making most of the posts, and making extremely unguarded in-the-moment posts, especially day 2 and today.

But, back to the matter at hand, this is not a good question to ask most players and I'm surprised you asked me. Not surprised in a good way.

[morph the cat]

if I may indulge in a little Shirou style self-aware tangential diatribe on mafia philosophy, I feel like it's wonky when people act like someone suspecting somebody, while also thinking somebody else would look scummy if that suspect were to flip town, is something that only scum would do to chain miselims. I'm almost never 100% confident in my scumreads and I'm always trying to think about what the game looks like if/when I'm wrong. It's also the easiest way to offer an olive branch to your scumreads to try to see if you have mutual scumreads elsewhere, what the gamestate looks like from their assumed-town PoV.

for me to not be suspecting numberQ (or anyone else for that matter) in any capacity today, it would require me to be

fully convinced

that morph/Shirou is the scum team, and that's just not how I operate. I've been wrong too many times to be that full of myself. I think Shirou's prob scum, and then I'm like 40% morph, 35% numberQ, 25% the field on a third scum. And Shirou might not even be scum! so why would I mindlessly tunnel a morph elim without even trying to be openminded that you might be town? why do I get assigned scumpoints for trying to reach out to you to say "hey, if you are town, to me it looks like numberQ reacted to the fake guilty in a way that reflects an informed perspective"?

Really the only thing about your play around me specifically that gives me town-glimmers today is that you're kinda pushing no-elim more so than merely entertaining the idea IMO. If you're scum you know that my elim today is very achievable and that the elim pool potentially narrows A LOT at the start of day 4, or there's a REAL guilty result(s) tomorrow as opposed to today's bullshit. A town elim today is not a bad result for scum.

Maybe there's enough scum favorability in a no-elim today even with potential clears tomorrow if not actual guilties, though. I dunno. And maybe raising all the concern about Numbers increases the likelihood that town uses a cop on him, despite his cop result, rather than someplace more likely to hit scum.

This kind of spec is not my forte, though, so I'm hesitant to put much weight on that being a good indicator of town-you.

My forte is developing townreads and effective POEs.

[fua]

What are the benefits of no limming again?

[MegAzumarill]

something something ev?

[MegAzumarill]

I mean it doesn't hurt us
We don't lose a mislim
We just delay some information over others

[Tejate Raichu]

What are the benefits of no limming again?

We have 3 claimed cops, one of which is pretty much locktown and guaranteed to get a result. That'd be you, fua. We aren't limming the scummiest looking player today (Shirou) because of this very claim. We lose effectively nothing by doing this since with 1 missed night kill and 1 scum dead, we are at a pretty major advantage where we would have to mis-lim two days in a row AND have 2 night kills go through to reach LiLo. By no limming, we guarantee no mis-lims on potential later day cops or unclaimed N3 docs. I think it is worth going for the safe play here since, again, at worst we get 1 scum a day late when they're already losing.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean it doesn't hurt us
We don't lose a mislim
We just delay some information over others

^ this, basically we can use the lim we otherwise would have used today with the fuller information of all the claimed night results

p-edit: also what Tejate said

I am TRing morph I think. last few posts feel sincere and I also think the paranoia around me trying to get numbers copped is genuine

VOTE: no elimination

[GuiltyLion]

I mean actually I guess I'm down to lim numberQ - it is a safer call given he's already claimed and fua's point about it hardconfirming Ceph if he flips town - but do we have the votes for that

[GuiltyLion]

I'll re-ISO numberQ at some point tonight probably and case it if I feel inclined

[fua]

Counterpoint: Limming a scummy player who is not Shirou means the three claimed cops have less spaces to check. It’s not like we’re going to gain more information by just letting scum kill a person and keeping the lim pool wider. Limming someone just means that we don’t have to use a check on them.

[MegAzumarill]

put it like this, do you want the check before we get more info, or after