Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[catboi]

Vote Count 5.01

numberQ (1):

GuiltyLion

Shirou (1):

fua

Not Voting (5):

Cephrir, numberQ, Shirou, Tejate Raichu, Enchant

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 5 is February 25 at 10:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-25 11:00:00)

[Shirou]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

The plan is to eliminate NQ since Ceph can't confirm NQ.

GL, this is what is weird about you today to me as well. Why would I be suggesting for us to eliminate me rather than NQ if I'm scum?!

Unless you believe it's me/NQ? But that's not your core belief is it, it's that it's Fua/Me.

Why would I try to protect NQ when I could do NQ today and get at least one extra miselimination before Ceph confirming me?

And what kind of goddamn plan it would be for a Shirou/Fua team have me suggest leashing Ceph to fua?!

GL, YOUR SOLVE OF SHIROU/FUA MAKES NO SENSE. I'M EXPLICITLY SINCE YESTERDAY PLANNING AGAINST FUA.

[Shirou]

GL/Shirou from fua's perspective makes logical sense.

Shirou/Fua from GL's perspective makes NO logical sense whatsoever.

My actions are confirming fua downfall rather than just doing the EASY route of voting NQ like himself and Enchant suggested before. At minimum I would be able to get one extra miselimination before Ceph checking me.

Rather than doing that...I actually try to self-sacrifice today?

???

How does that make any sense in a fua/Shirou team. I'm willing to die today to change Ceph target from confirming me to confirming fua.

[GuiltyLion]

my core solve is Shirou/nQ, I let myself get tilted by fua pushing me and could imagine it being scum motivated, but until I actually see a townflip in either of you I don't think it's the most likely or reasonable solve

Meg/Ceph both being cops and morph being conftown puts me firmly back on Shirou/nQ train

[GuiltyLion]

either of you = shirou/nq

[GuiltyLion]

frankly I think Ceph is just spewed town whoever is scum here so I don't feel like limming nQ over Shirou today is particularly important even if it does fractionally reduce the chance of losing to Ceph+nQ

I'm happy with either of Shirou/nQ, with the main caveat that if either of them flips town, Ceph agrees to check someone

outside

of the other one, I would heavily recommend hell heavily

beg

for him to check me in that world so I don't have to deal with defending myself. I would much rather have the chance to hold the final hammer and solve correctly. but I think most likely scenario is they both flip scum and this is just town spinning its wheels

[Shirou]

If it was Shirou/Fua, rather than forcing Ceph to waste their cop check on me by voting NQ today, I would be trying to die today and leash Ceph to my partner?

Is that the galaxy brain plan?

The reason I'm so afraid of following on my plan yesterday is exactly because I know I'm town, but somehow NQ also seems like they may be town for me, which means the scum *needs*, by a process of elimination, be Fua/GL since I deeply believe that Enchant/Tejate are town regardless of anyone alignment right now.

If I can go back to believing NQ is scum, sure, I can just vote there and that's it for today. But right now...I can't.

Fua/GL seem like already setting up stuff to endgame. Even if I'm wrong on they being the team, at least one of them needs to be scum.

[Shirou]

frankly I think Ceph is just spewed town whoever is scum here so I don't feel like limming nQ over Shirou today is particularly important even if it does fractionally reduce the chance of losing to Ceph+nQ

I'm happy with either of Shirou/nQ, with the main caveat that if either of them flips town, Ceph agrees to check someone

outside

of the other one, I would heavily recommend hell heavily

beg

for him to check me in that world so I don't have to deal with defending myself. I would much rather have the chance to hold the final hammer and solve correctly. but I think most likely scenario is they both flip scum and this is just town spinning its wheels

Hm

that's a good justification but it was also after I started to attack fua/GL, so maybe you changed your mind after I didn't side with either of you or fua (which is what I imagine would be the plan more or less), and I didn't pay attention to all recent posts yet since I'm still replying and explaining my stuff.

[Shirou]

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

[fua]

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?

[Shirou]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

and also that approach is correct...if fua is town.

If you're town, imagine for a split second I'm town here as well. The scum team for me needs to be either exactly you/NQ, or...fua is scum which means we need to change gears.

what am I supposed to do here GL?

If I follow the plan and NQ is town, we straight up lose.

If I try to vote you today, if it's Fua/NQ, from decently winnable game since we still have a cop check, the game goes to "very bad odds of winning".

If I'm wrong on either you or NQ, we lose today basically and tomorrow is just mostly filler. The result of both cases would be obvious.

The unique situation where what I'm doing is bad, is if it's exactly GL/NQ, but also, it's the team with the least likely chances of winning since all of Fua/Enchant/Tejate would most likely default to that team if I died...

[Shirou]

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?

If you're town, it's gotta be GL/NQ from my perspective.

From what I'm expecting, the final day would have at least two of Tejate/Ceph/Enchant/Fua to decide the game result in that scenario.

That means the chance of us winning are still pretty good considering that's the solve all of you would most likely default to once I do flip.

If GL is town, it needs to be you/NQ, and the key to winning there is by leaving GL alive today so that he can protect Ceph, and for Ceph to check you.

If it's NQ/Ceph though...hm, what I'm doing right now is a terrible course of actions, and honestly there's a possibility it's just that, but hm...wouldn't it be a rather ballsy play...?

Sigh

[Shirou]

To be honest...it really can be NQ/Ceph theoretically speaking and miseliminating me today and giving they the opportunity to claim a guilty on fua is like giving the key for their win.

If that's the case I would feel rather guilty of that later...

[Shirou]

Fua/GL is honestly a bit ridiculous if looked through the lens of common sense. A scum team that not only gambitted once, but twice?

It reminds me of the wild scum team theories I would have as a newbie...completely detached from reality due to how much WIFOM there was on it.

However...by play alone, it really feels like the most likely team to me, but I hadn't realized how not eliminating NQ today gives the key for a NQ/Ceph team to win on a otherwise impossible game for them.

[Shirou]

Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore. I was just watching some anime before noticing this game opened sooner than I expected (didn't notice two days had already passed since hammer). I don't want to keep pouring so much time to writing my posts here for a "hero solve" of GL/Fua if no one is gonna give it the time of the day.

@Tejate, @Enchant you really think that Fua/GL is impossible and would bet on the game being literally any other team before that?

If the answer to the above is yes, I suppose I'll just shrug and vote NQ. Even though it certainly assures a Fua/GL team winning.

[Shirou]

I believe we should leash Ceph to fua though, although I would be fine if they investigated me, but it doesn't sound like a good idea. I don't think they should investigate GL as well.

If NQ is town, from GL's pov it needs to be Fua/Shirou right?

If that's the case, Ceph investigating Fua is a very good idea from GL's pov, since although GL vs Fua likely ends on a Fua win right now, a GL vs Shirou ends most likely on a GL win. There's nothing to fear in a Shirou/Fua team if Fua is guilted.

[Cephrir]

ok so immediately, and im still on 144 here but have skimmed some bits, i can be pretty sure it's 2 of nq/gl/shirou.

the shot on meg seems like a point for nq/gl, but i do kind of believe shirou has balls of steel given his repeated attempts to elim himself

[Cephrir]

i don't see myself supporting a GL elim today in any case, it just makes no sense

[Shirou]

If the answer to the above is yes, I suppose I'll just shrug and vote NQ. Even though it certainly assures a Fua/GL team winning.

If we win by voting NQ here, if it's GL/NQ or NQ/Ceph, hooray for non-wild theories I guess. Common sense saves the day again.

If we lose because it's GL/Fua...well, I tried. Wouldn't feel too bad.

p-edit: so no fua hmm...? But say Ceph, would you be up for checking fua just in case? since if it's 2 of NQ/GL/Shirou and we begin eliminating there today, we simply are in auto.

[Shirou]

i don't see myself supporting a GL elim today in any case, it just makes no sense

Yeah

Even though my top pick is Fua/GL I wouldn't support a GL elimination today. Could be wrong.

[Cephrir]

UNVOTE:

@Ceph

Check me tonight to confirm Tejate and myself.

After one of NQ/Shirou dies can we lim GL?

i'll agree to this if everyone's cool with it

[Shirou]

Everyone seems to agree that Enchant/Tejate are town now right?

If that's the case, it leaves us with Fua/Shirou/NQ/GL.

If Ceph checks fua, it leaves us with up to 2 miseliminations left in the pool of [Shirou/NQ/GL].

It's impossible to miseliminate twice if the scum team is in [Shirou/NQ/GL], so in that scenario we would be in auto.

Do you agree it would be therefore a good idea to check fua just in case Ceph?

p-edit: yeah I do 100% agree with it.

[Cephrir]

fua, you seemed to see something that made enchant 100% town at some point earlier in the game. i am strongly townreading him, but i didn't see the thing you saw; do you want to talk about that today to remove any doubt?

[Cephrir]

Hypothetical N4 Ceph guilty on Shirou would not change the gamestate dramatically for him here

interesting proposition

his partner would clearly not be you in this situation, i think?

[Cephrir]

Shirou's ONLY option today is to lim NQ since he townreads GL and that would allow Ceph to check any one of us three which would solve and win the game.

i seem to recall that shirou arrives here by the present