Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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The plan is to eliminate NQ since Ceph can't confirm NQ.In post 3698, GuiltyLion wrote:
if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...In post 3695, Shirou wrote:My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.
GL, this is what is weird about you today to me as well. Why would I be suggesting for us to eliminate me rather than NQ if I'm scum?!
Unless you believe it's me/NQ? But that's not your core belief is it, it's that it's Fua/Me.
Why would I try to protect NQ when I could do NQ today and get at least one extra miselimination before Ceph confirming me?
And what kind of goddamn plan it would be for a Shirou/Fua team have me suggest leashing Ceph to fua?!
GL, YOUR SOLVE OF SHIROU/FUA MAKES NO SENSE. I'M EXPLICITLY SINCE YESTERDAY PLANNING AGAINST FUA."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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GL/Shirou from fua's perspective makes logical sense.
Shirou/Fua from GL's perspective makes NO logical sense whatsoever.
My actions are confirming fua downfall rather than just doing the EASY route of voting NQ like himself and Enchant suggested before. At minimum I would be able to get one extra miselimination before Ceph checking me.
Rather than doing that...I actually try to self-sacrifice today?
???
How does that make any sense in a fua/Shirou team. I'm willing to die today to change Ceph target from confirming me to confirming fua."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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my core solve is Shirou/nQ, I let myself get tilted by fua pushing me and could imagine it being scum motivated, but until I actually see a townflip in either of you I don't think it's the most likely or reasonable solve
Meg/Ceph both being cops and morph being conftown puts me firmly back on Shirou/nQ train"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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In post 3670, GuiltyLion wrote:frankly I think Ceph is just spewed town whoever is scum here so I don't feel like limming nQ over Shirou today is particularly important even if it does fractionally reduce the chance of losing to Ceph+nQ
I'm happy with either of Shirou/nQ, with the main caveat that if either of them flips town, Ceph agrees to check someoneoutsideof the other one, I would heavily recommend hell heavilybegfor him to check me in that world so I don't have to deal with defending myself. I would much rather have the chance to hold the final hammer and solve correctly. but I think most likely scenario is they both flip scum and this is just town spinning its wheels"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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If it was Shirou/Fua, rather than forcing Ceph to waste their cop check on me by voting NQ today, I would be trying to die today and leash Ceph to my partner?
Is that the galaxy brain plan?
The reason I'm so afraid of following on my plan yesterday is exactly because I know I'm town, but somehow NQ also seems like they may be town for me, which means the scum *needs*, by a process of elimination, be Fua/GL since I deeply believe that Enchant/Tejate are town regardless of anyone alignment right now.
If I can go back to believing NQ is scum, sure, I can just vote there and that's it for today. But right now...I can't.
Fua/GL seem like already setting up stuff to endgame. Even if I'm wrong on they being the team, at least one of them needs to be scum."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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HmIn post 3705, GuiltyLion wrote:In post 3670, GuiltyLion wrote:frankly I think Ceph is just spewed town whoever is scum here so I don't feel like limming nQ over Shirou today is particularly important even if it does fractionally reduce the chance of losing to Ceph+nQ
I'm happy with either of Shirou/nQ, with the main caveat that if either of them flips town, Ceph agrees to check someoneoutsideof the other one, I would heavily recommend hell heavilybegfor him to check me in that world so I don't have to deal with defending myself. I would much rather have the chance to hold the final hammer and solve correctly. but I think most likely scenario is they both flip scum and this is just town spinning its wheels
that's a good justification but it was also after I started to attack fua/GL, so maybe you changed your mind after I didn't side with either of you or fua (which is what I imagine would be the plan more or less), and I didn't pay attention to all recent posts yet since I'm still replying and explaining my stuff."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?In post 3704, GuiltyLion wrote:either of you = shirou/nq"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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fua Mafia Scum
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What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?In post 3708, Shirou wrote:
okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?In post 3704, GuiltyLion wrote:either of you = shirou/nq-
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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and also that approach is correct...if fua is town.In post 3698, GuiltyLion wrote:
if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...In post 3695, Shirou wrote:My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.
If you're town, imagine for a split second I'm town here as well. The scum team for me needs to be either exactly you/NQ, or...fua is scum which means we need to change gears.
what am I supposed to do here GL?
If I follow the plan and NQ is town, we straight up lose.
If I try to vote you today, if it's Fua/NQ, from decently winnable game since we still have a cop check, the game goes to "very bad odds of winning".
If I'm wrong on either you or NQ, we lose today basically and tomorrow is just mostly filler. The result of both cases would be obvious.
The unique situation where what I'm doing is bad, is if it's exactly GL/NQ, but also, it's the team with the least likely chances of winning since all of Fua/Enchant/Tejate would most likely default to that team if I died..."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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If you're town, it's gotta be GL/NQ from my perspective.In post 3709, fua wrote:
What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?In post 3708, Shirou wrote:
okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?In post 3704, GuiltyLion wrote:either of you = shirou/nq
From what I'm expecting, the final day would have at least two of Tejate/Ceph/Enchant/Fua to decide the game result in that scenario.
That means the chance of us winning are still pretty good considering that's the solve all of you would most likely default to once I do flip.
If GL is town, it needs to be you/NQ, and the key to winning there is by leaving GL alive today so that he can protect Ceph, and for Ceph to check you.
If it's NQ/Ceph though...hm, what I'm doing right now is a terrible course of actions, and honestly there's a possibility it's just that, but hm...wouldn't it be a rather ballsy play...?
Sigh"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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To be honest...it really can be NQ/Ceph theoretically speaking and miseliminating me today and giving they the opportunity to claim a guilty on fua is like giving the key for their win.
If that's the case I would feel rather guilty of that later..."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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Fua/GL is honestly a bit ridiculous if looked through the lens of common sense. A scum team that not only gambitted once, but twice?
It reminds me of the wild scum team theories I would have as a newbie...completely detached from reality due to how much WIFOM there was on it.
However...by play alone, it really feels like the most likely team to me, but I hadn't realized how not eliminating NQ today gives the key for a NQ/Ceph team to win on a otherwise impossible game for them."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore. I was just watching some anime before noticing this game opened sooner than I expected (didn't notice two days had already passed since hammer). I don't want to keep pouring so much time to writing my posts here for a "hero solve" of GL/Fua if no one is gonna give it the time of the day.
@Tejate, @Enchant you really think that Fua/GL is impossible and would bet on the game being literally any other team before that?
If the answer to the above is yes, I suppose I'll just shrug and vote NQ. Even though it certainly assures a Fua/GL team winning."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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I believe we should leash Ceph to fua though, although I would be fine if they investigated me, but it doesn't sound like a good idea. I don't think they should investigate GL as well.
If NQ is town, from GL's pov it needs to be Fua/Shirou right?
If that's the case, Ceph investigating Fua is a very good idea from GL's pov, since although GL vs Fua likely ends on a Fua win right now, a GL vs Shirou ends most likely on a GL win. There's nothing to fear in a Shirou/Fua team if Fua is guilted."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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ok so immediately, and im still on 144 here but have skimmed some bits, i can be pretty sure it's 2 of nq/gl/shirou.
the shot on meg seems like a point for nq/gl, but i do kind of believe shirou has balls of steel given his repeated attempts to elim himself"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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If we win by voting NQ here, if it's GL/NQ or NQ/Ceph, hooray for non-wild theories I guess. Common sense saves the day again.In post 3714, Shirou wrote:If the answer to the above is yes, I suppose I'll just shrug and vote NQ. Even though it certainly assures a Fua/GL team winning.
If we lose because it's GL/Fua...well, I tried. Wouldn't feel too bad.
p-edit: so no fua hmm...? But say Ceph, would you be up for checking fua just in case? since if it's 2 of NQ/GL/Shirou and we begin eliminating there today, we simply are in auto."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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YeahIn post 3717, Cephrir wrote:i don't see myself supporting a GL elim today in any case, it just makes no sense
Even though my top pick is Fua/GL I wouldn't support a GL elimination today. Could be wrong."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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i'll agree to this if everyone's cool with itIn post 3623, fua wrote:UNVOTE:
@CephCheck me tonight to confirm Tejate and myself.
After one of NQ/Shirou dies can we lim GL?"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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Everyone seems to agree that Enchant/Tejate are town now right?
If that's the case, it leaves us with Fua/Shirou/NQ/GL.
If Ceph checks fua, it leaves us with up to 2 miseliminations left in the pool of [Shirou/NQ/GL].
It's impossible to miseliminate twice if the scum team is in [Shirou/NQ/GL], so in that scenario we would be in auto.
Do you agree it would be therefore a good idea to check fua just in case Ceph?
p-edit: yeah I do 100% agree with it."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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interesting propositionIn post 3639, GuiltyLion wrote:Hypothetical N4 Ceph guilty on Shirou would not change the gamestate dramatically for him here
his partner would clearly not be you in this situation, i think?"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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i seem to recall that shirou arrives here by the presentIn post 3645, fua wrote:Shirou's ONLY option today is to lim NQ since he townreads GL and that would allow Ceph to check any one of us three which would solve and win the game."I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener
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