Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

Hmm, that's a detail I hadn't thought about Tejate, but still...the point isn't about trusting or not Ceph result though if NQ flips scum?

It's about removing either me or GL of the elimination pool so that there's exactly 2 eliminations for 2 players. If we check fua, if he doesn't come up with an inno and we win the game right there, we still would have the problem of 3 players left in the pool, but only 2 eliminations.

Your point is really good though.

[Shirou]

There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.

Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?

I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.

also this is a complete derp as well

forget math right now I'm too sleepy.

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually give me like an hour, I'll make a flow chart.

[Shirou]

There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.

Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?

I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.

also this is a complete derp as well

forget math right now I'm too sleepy.

okay the actual number is truly 33% I think? since there's 6 combinations but in 4 of them we win, so 4/6 -> 2/3 -> ~ 66%? Therefore around 33% chance of losing by default mhm.

May Implo confirm or deny this in postgame.

[Shirou]

Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?

/shrug

I'm okay with this if it's what you want to do even though as I said, it's kinda risky if NQ flips scum since you give a 33% chance to scum!GL, scum!Shirou or scum!Ceph of winning...but hm, I'm fine with it I guess yeah.

[Cephrir]

I can live with that

[Tejate Raichu]

Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?

/shrug

I'm okay with this if it's what you want to do even though as I said, it's kinda risky if NQ flips scum since you give a 33% chance to scum!GL, scum!Shirou or scum!Ceph of winning...but hm, I'm fine with it I guess yeah.

To be fair this plan gives us a 100% chance of losing if Enchant is scum.

[fua]

Enchant isn’t scum though.

[fua]

Also I’m staying on Shirou. Ceph is 100% confirmed anyway if Shirou flips scum, so…

[fua]

Shirou’s alignment is far more valuable to figure out than NQ’s tonight and I can’t be convinced otherwise.

[Cephrir]

sure

VOTE: shirou

[fua]

Shirou flipping scum heavily indicates GL. Voting NQ just produces WIFOM. I don’t even understand how or why we’re going with what Shirou says for the third day in a row when he has yet to be correct so far.

[Cephrir]

how would you like me to use my investigation?

[fua]

I really don’t mind. Check me to confirm two people if you want. I will probably be voting GL tomorrow if Shirou flips scum anyways, that should just be an extra level of reassurance in case you have any doubts. If it’s not GL then NQ is just confirmed scum.

[fua]

Now that I’m thinking about it, I’m just gonna vote GL tomorrow regardless of Shirou’s alignment. Trust him less than NQ.

[fua]

Actually, I kind of also feel like you could just target GL tonight depending on what happens. Regardless of the outcome at least one scum will be confirmed from my PoV. Neither answer is wrong.

[fua]

Okay, here’s an idea. If Shirou somehow flips town then Cephrir should 100% check me to clear up any and all doubts. Otherwise he can do whatever he fancies. This is objectively the correct play because it prevents Shirou’s WIFOM from getting yet another day forward. It’s also the objectively correct play for GL too since he SRs Shirou and wants me to be confirmed.

I cannot wrap my head around how an NQ lim is more beneficial than a Shirou lim in any way.

[fua]

(If GL is town, obviously he knows Ceph can’t be killed and will be able to get a result.)

Checking Enchant is just a waste and NQ is not a good choice from you since you’re essentially just being asked to confirm yourself.

[fua]

Actually.

@Ceph Why did you switch to Shirou so easily? Don’t you see a merit in being mech confirmed so your word is law compared to the potential WIFOM tomorrow?

[fua]

UNVOTE:

I need to think. Maybe it really is safest to just yeet NQ.

[Tejate Raichu]

You know what, I'm opening paint.net. Don't end the day yet.

[Cephrir]

Actually.

@Ceph Why did you switch to Shirou so easily? Don’t you see a merit in being mech confirmed so your word is law compared to the potential WIFOM tomorrow?

Switch? How did I switch?

I just think shirou's the most likely scum. I already made noises to that effect but was willing to go along with his plan if people I trust thought it was better.

Also if my word becomes law I'll have to try.

[numberQ]

I need to wrap my head around this. There's a lot of plan discussion flying around and it keeps changing, and I haven't been able to stay current in the conversation. So here's what I think people are saying, please correct if wrong.

Plan 1

Lim me (numberQ).

Ceph investigates fua.

Lim fua on a guilty, GL on inno.

If fua/GL is a mislim, we're at 3p ELo out of [fua/GL], Shirou, Tejate, Enchant, and Ceph (minus 2 nightkills).
Otherwise, we have one more mislim to hit the last scum.

Plan 2

Lim Shirou.

Ceph investigates fua or GL.

On a guilty result, we get an obvious lim.
Innocent result: inno!fua means lim GL. inno!GL means lim... fua? me? Unclear.

? from here

Plan 2 is less complete than Plan 1 but in some ways that's preferable, to allow for flexible thinking as the days arrive. Plus, Plan 1 involves an immediate mislim and a stronger possibility fmpov of ELo in a very WIFOM-y gamestate. I do think we should just be trying to hit scum instead of banking on mech confirms, because of that ELo possibility.

The more I think about it the less I like me being the lim, and I was already iffy on it. Obviously this is partially from me already knowing my alignment (and Ceph's), but still. Am I looking at this wrong?

[Cephrir]

how strange everyone dislikes themselves being the elim we are really gaming now folks