Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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Hmm, that's a detail I hadn't thought about Tejate, but still...the point isn't about trusting or not Ceph result though if NQ flips scum?
It's about removing either me or GL of the elimination pool so that there's exactly 2 eliminations for 2 players. If we check fua, if he doesn't come up with an inno and we win the game right there, we still would have the problem of 3 players left in the pool, but only 2 eliminations.
Your point is really good though."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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also this is a complete derp as wellIn post 3773, Shirou wrote:
Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?In post 3772, Shirou wrote:There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.
I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.
forget math right now I'm too sleepy."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Tejate Raichu Goon
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Tejate Raichu Goon
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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okay the actual number is truly 33% I think? since there's 6 combinations but in 4 of them we win, so 4/6 -> 2/3 -> ~ 66%? Therefore around 33% chance of losing by default mhm.In post 3776, Shirou wrote:
also this is a complete derp as wellIn post 3773, Shirou wrote:
Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?In post 3772, Shirou wrote:There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.
I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.
forget math right now I'm too sleepy.
May Implo confirm or deny this in postgame."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Shirou He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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/shrugIn post 3777, Tejate Raichu wrote:Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?
I'm okay with this if it's what you want to do even though as I said, it's kinda risky if NQ flips scum since you give a 33% chance to scum!GL, scum!Shirou or scum!Ceph of winning...but hm, I'm fine with it I guess yeah."Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."
"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Tejate Raichu Goon
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To be fair this plan gives us a 100% chance of losing if Enchant is scum.In post 3780, Shirou wrote:
/shrugIn post 3777, Tejate Raichu wrote:Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?
I'm okay with this if it's what you want to do even though as I said, it's kinda risky if NQ flips scum since you give a 33% chance to scum!GL, scum!Shirou or scum!Ceph of winning...but hm, I'm fine with it I guess yeah.-
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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fua Mafia Scum
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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Okay, here’s an idea. If Shirou somehow flips town then Cephrir should 100% check me to clear up any and all doubts. Otherwise he can do whatever he fancies. This is objectively the correct play because it prevents Shirou’s WIFOM from getting yet another day forward. It’s also the objectively correct play for GL too since he SRs Shirou and wants me to be confirmed.
I cannot wrap my head around how an NQ lim is more beneficial than a Shirou lim in any way.-
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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fua Mafia Scum
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Tejate Raichu Goon
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Switch? How did I switch?In post 3794, fua wrote:Actually.
@Ceph Why did you switch to Shirou so easily? Don’t you see a merit in being mech confirmed so your word is law compared to the potential WIFOM tomorrow?
I just think shirou's the most likely scum. I already made noises to that effect but was willing to go along with his plan if people I trust thought it was better.
Also if my word becomes law I'll have to try."I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,Bartleby the Scrivener-
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numberQ he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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I need to wrap my head around this. There's a lot of plan discussion flying around and it keeps changing, and I haven't been able to stay current in the conversation. So here's what I think people are saying, please correct if wrong.
Plan 2 is less complete than Plan 1 but in some ways that's preferable, to allow for flexible thinking as the days arrive. Plus, Plan 1 involves an immediate mislim and a stronger possibility fmpov of ELo in a very WIFOM-y gamestate. I do think we should just be trying to hit scum instead of banking on mech confirms, because of that ELo possibility.
The more I think about it the less I like me being the lim, and I was already iffy on it. Obviously this is partially from me already knowing my alignment (and Ceph's), but still. Am I looking at this wrong?Hey!-
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Cephrir he/himSurvivorhe/him
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