Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

this makes no sense to say either...why the hell would you vote Tejate?

like, aren't you a cop with a check?

This is pure AtE and appealing for Enchant to stick with you in my opinion.

Enchant, both GL/Fua have been defending you non stop since you repped in. You really think that's normal town behavior?

They are buddying you.

Because... Enchant literally... said that he wouldn't win against me in a 1v1?

They would. Literally everyone town reads Enchant more than you right now...

[Shirou]

The truth is I'm fine either way by doing this course of actions you know?

If It's just GL/NQ and I'm being too paranoid, my miselimination today isn't that big of a deal.

However if I'm right and it's Fua/GL, I tried my best to give us the best chances of winning this.

[Shirou]

What really made me hesitate for a fua/GL team is that it feels so...fictional.

They would not only have gambled on N1 with the no kill. They would also have gambled and left me alive betting on me not checking GL for WIFOM.

They would have chosen extremely risky options. Looking at it this way, I believe there's a chance of GL/NQ, or even Fua/NQ, but hm...fua vs GL sounds so much like theater, especially considering fua weird behavior towards GL being copped by me at the end of Day 3.

[Shirou]

Enchant, you really think there's any chance of us winning against a scum!fua by eliminating NQ first here?

We would only be able to afford one more miselimination if NQ is miseliminated.

How can you ever believe that the last miselimination wouldn't be me in that scenario? I've no chances of winning against scum!fua in a 1v1, but Ceph perhaps can.

[Shirou]

Either Ceph with a guilty or NQ by me giving him ammunition and predicting GL voluntarily guiltying themselves by NK'ing Ceph.

I believe in both of those scenarios, there's a much better shot against scum!fua in a 1v1 than if we do Shirou vs Fua for final day.

[Shirou]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

It's a very real possibility and I was eagerly waiting for NQ's reaction to me. However...suddenly NQ does a 180 on what they were saying yesterday now that I propose something similar?

Sigh

This game is so weird...

[Shirou]

I firmly believe Enchant is town now though I guess, that's something.

I believe Tejate is also very likely town. If he was scum with fua, fua wouldn't have tried to leash themselves to GL on Day 3.

[Shirou]

I don't exactly know if I should stick with Fua/GL, or Fua/NQ, or GL/NQ. I can see all of them being real possibilities due to process of elimination, and my gut tells me that Fua/GL is the most likely because of their so frequent spats that somehow end up with they not death tunneling each other by the end, however...I can be wrong. I'm so aware of that.

Fua should likely be town due to the no night kill. It would have been a rather huge gamble to do as scum. Losing a nightkill voluntarily is no joke when in a setup like this it's rather likely that at least one kill will be naturally blocked by town doctors. If fua is scum, they voluntarily risked a good chance of having to deal against a town with one extra elimination. It's simply NOT something you commonly see coming from scum, ever...

Guiltylion should ~likely~ be town for me living through N3? Even if they suspected I was doing WIFOM, there was also a possibility I wasn't. Risking getting a guilty like that is kinda no joke...it could have turned the tables in this game if I had got it and regained town trust on D4.

NQ...well, to be honest Meg dying should kinda point towards scum!NQ so there's not much reason to believe NQ isn't scum to be honest. But their posts on day opening felt...not like what scum should be planning for today unless I've misread it? Their most recent post saying they completely changed their mind on fua is kinda weird though, maybe I'm wrong here.

But either way, I feel like I've a reason or two to have everyone as town, which is why this game feels so weird at the moment. I think the least weird scum team is GL/NQ, but NQ behavior is still a mystery if that's the scum team.

I feel there's no easy solution to this game and I'm kinda doing my best to convince people to be wary of Fua/GL, because I think that's the team that wins here most of the time. NQ/Fua or GL/NQ isn't as big of a threat as GL/Fua.

However, to not lose to GL/NQ, WE ALSO NEED TO NOT ELIMINATE GL TODAY so that he can protect Ceph.

Look, I just don't know what else to do today other than eliminating myself later if I'm to do the optimal play against any combination of Fua/GL/NQ.

I'm settling for the "not best course of actions against X team, but best course of actions against all possible teams" philosophy.

[Shirou]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

The plan is to eliminate NQ since Ceph can't confirm NQ.

GL, this is what is weird about you today to me as well. Why would I be suggesting for us to eliminate me rather than NQ if I'm scum?!

Unless you believe it's me/NQ? But that's not your core belief is it, it's that it's Fua/Me.

Why would I try to protect NQ when I could do NQ today and get at least one extra miselimination before Ceph confirming me?

And what kind of goddamn plan it would be for a Shirou/Fua team have me suggest leashing Ceph to fua?!

GL, YOUR SOLVE OF SHIROU/FUA MAKES NO SENSE. I'M EXPLICITLY SINCE YESTERDAY PLANNING AGAINST FUA.

[Shirou]

GL/Shirou from fua's perspective makes logical sense.

Shirou/Fua from GL's perspective makes NO logical sense whatsoever.

My actions are confirming fua downfall rather than just doing the EASY route of voting NQ like himself and Enchant suggested before. At minimum I would be able to get one extra miselimination before Ceph checking me.

Rather than doing that...I actually try to self-sacrifice today?

???

How does that make any sense in a fua/Shirou team. I'm willing to die today to change Ceph target from confirming me to confirming fua.

[Shirou]

If it was Shirou/Fua, rather than forcing Ceph to waste their cop check on me by voting NQ today, I would be trying to die today and leash Ceph to my partner?

Is that the galaxy brain plan?

The reason I'm so afraid of following on my plan yesterday is exactly because I know I'm town, but somehow NQ also seems like they may be town for me, which means the scum *needs*, by a process of elimination, be Fua/GL since I deeply believe that Enchant/Tejate are town regardless of anyone alignment right now.

If I can go back to believing NQ is scum, sure, I can just vote there and that's it for today. But right now...I can't.

Fua/GL seem like already setting up stuff to endgame. Even if I'm wrong on they being the team, at least one of them needs to be scum.

[Shirou]

frankly I think Ceph is just spewed town whoever is scum here so I don't feel like limming nQ over Shirou today is particularly important even if it does fractionally reduce the chance of losing to Ceph+nQ

I'm happy with either of Shirou/nQ, with the main caveat that if either of them flips town, Ceph agrees to check someone

outside

of the other one, I would heavily recommend hell heavily

beg

for him to check me in that world so I don't have to deal with defending myself. I would much rather have the chance to hold the final hammer and solve correctly. but I think most likely scenario is they both flip scum and this is just town spinning its wheels

Hm

that's a good justification but it was also after I started to attack fua/GL, so maybe you changed your mind after I didn't side with either of you or fua (which is what I imagine would be the plan more or less), and I didn't pay attention to all recent posts yet since I'm still replying and explaining my stuff.

[Shirou]

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

[Shirou]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

and also that approach is correct...if fua is town.

If you're town, imagine for a split second I'm town here as well. The scum team for me needs to be either exactly you/NQ, or...fua is scum which means we need to change gears.

what am I supposed to do here GL?

If I follow the plan and NQ is town, we straight up lose.

If I try to vote you today, if it's Fua/NQ, from decently winnable game since we still have a cop check, the game goes to "very bad odds of winning".

If I'm wrong on either you or NQ, we lose today basically and tomorrow is just mostly filler. The result of both cases would be obvious.

The unique situation where what I'm doing is bad, is if it's exactly GL/NQ, but also, it's the team with the least likely chances of winning since all of Fua/Enchant/Tejate would most likely default to that team if I died...

[Shirou]

either of you = shirou/nq

okay but then what do you think is the solve if let's say, I flip town today?

What is the solve if either of me or GL flip town?

If you're town, it's gotta be GL/NQ from my perspective.

From what I'm expecting, the final day would have at least two of Tejate/Ceph/Enchant/Fua to decide the game result in that scenario.

That means the chance of us winning are still pretty good considering that's the solve all of you would most likely default to once I do flip.

If GL is town, it needs to be you/NQ, and the key to winning there is by leaving GL alive today so that he can protect Ceph, and for Ceph to check you.

If it's NQ/Ceph though...hm, what I'm doing right now is a terrible course of actions, and honestly there's a possibility it's just that, but hm...wouldn't it be a rather ballsy play...?

Sigh

[Shirou]

To be honest...it really can be NQ/Ceph theoretically speaking and miseliminating me today and giving they the opportunity to claim a guilty on fua is like giving the key for their win.

If that's the case I would feel rather guilty of that later...

[Shirou]

Fua/GL is honestly a bit ridiculous if looked through the lens of common sense. A scum team that not only gambitted once, but twice?

It reminds me of the wild scum team theories I would have as a newbie...completely detached from reality due to how much WIFOM there was on it.

However...by play alone, it really feels like the most likely team to me, but I hadn't realized how not eliminating NQ today gives the key for a NQ/Ceph team to win on a otherwise impossible game for them.

[Shirou]

Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore. I was just watching some anime before noticing this game opened sooner than I expected (didn't notice two days had already passed since hammer). I don't want to keep pouring so much time to writing my posts here for a "hero solve" of GL/Fua if no one is gonna give it the time of the day.

@Tejate, @Enchant you really think that Fua/GL is impossible and would bet on the game being literally any other team before that?

If the answer to the above is yes, I suppose I'll just shrug and vote NQ. Even though it certainly assures a Fua/GL team winning.

[Shirou]

I believe we should leash Ceph to fua though, although I would be fine if they investigated me, but it doesn't sound like a good idea. I don't think they should investigate GL as well.

If NQ is town, from GL's pov it needs to be Fua/Shirou right?

If that's the case, Ceph investigating Fua is a very good idea from GL's pov, since although GL vs Fua likely ends on a Fua win right now, a GL vs Shirou ends most likely on a GL win. There's nothing to fear in a Shirou/Fua team if Fua is guilted.

[Shirou]

If the answer to the above is yes, I suppose I'll just shrug and vote NQ. Even though it certainly assures a Fua/GL team winning.

If we win by voting NQ here, if it's GL/NQ or NQ/Ceph, hooray for non-wild theories I guess. Common sense saves the day again.

If we lose because it's GL/Fua...well, I tried. Wouldn't feel too bad.

p-edit: so no fua hmm...? But say Ceph, would you be up for checking fua just in case? since if it's 2 of NQ/GL/Shirou and we begin eliminating there today, we simply are in auto.

[Shirou]

i don't see myself supporting a GL elim today in any case, it just makes no sense

Yeah

Even though my top pick is Fua/GL I wouldn't support a GL elimination today. Could be wrong.

[Shirou]

Everyone seems to agree that Enchant/Tejate are town now right?

If that's the case, it leaves us with Fua/Shirou/NQ/GL.

If Ceph checks fua, it leaves us with up to 2 miseliminations left in the pool of [Shirou/NQ/GL].

It's impossible to miseliminate twice if the scum team is in [Shirou/NQ/GL], so in that scenario we would be in auto.

Do you agree it would be therefore a good idea to check fua just in case Ceph?

p-edit: yeah I do 100% agree with it.

[Shirou]

Your thought process has consistently been full of holes and has made no sense throughout the entirety of this game. You post no reasoning behind your reads, constantly fail to act on what you say you're going to do, and your ISO is full of LAMIST AtE.

there's literally no holes to what I said yesterday though. The plan IS optimal and I'm still willing to do it if everyone just says they can't see you ever being scum, but that's one of the initial assumptions for the plan: that you're town.

You don't feel like town, at all to me right now.

But I'm willing to concede if Enchant/Tejate just says they can't see you as scum, ever. (They already kinda said once but I'm trying to push their buttons, who knows, maybe they changed their mind because of what I said)

[Shirou]

Why Enchant/Tejate?

Because they are the likely slots that will decide the fate of this game.

This game is kinda truly in their hands I would say.

[Shirou]

There's no point to all this self-sacrifice stuff if Enchant/Tejate can't ever see Fua/GL being possible due to fua always being town in their eyes.

If that's the case voting NQ is just the better play to confirm Ceph.

[Shirou]

and that's why theoretically you would want to do NQ rather than me today. To confirm whatever result Ceph gets tomorrow is guaranteed to be true if NQ is town, and if NQ is scum, we would be able to test it since we would have 2 eliminations left.

If you eliminate me today and I'm not scum, you only have one miselimination left and would need to gamble if Ceph can be trusted or not I guess. I kinda think Ceph is just town though.

[Shirou]

okay I'm tired for now

see you all and Enchant/Tejate do not ignore me if possible...

[Shirou]

actually honestly, for a last post that's probably gonna be flagged as LAMIST but whatever:

This game really stopped making much sense to me when Morph flipped town. It's almost kinda guaranteed to me that one of Fua/GL needs to be scum, and it's a bit hard to believe they gambited which is why I was so skeptical of this yesterday, but right now...it's kinda confirmed to me that one of them gambited at least.

Either fua by no nightkill, or GL by leaving me alive. The unique team where this isn't the case is exactly NQ/Ceph, and I guess...maybe we'll check that hypothesis today.

[Shirou]

but that also means NQ/Ceph gambited by claiming a cop inno on a partner on day 1....

like

this game is so weird, god.

[Shirou]

maybe I should take a card out of RC's deck though

If I vote NQ here and I'm wrong on GL/Fua (therefore NQ would be scum), I played okay by conceding to the consensus town (that would have been right).

If I vote NQ and I was right (therefore they flip town and fua is scum), even if we probably lose, I could still shrug it off postgame with a "well, I tried to warn you..."

I don't want to keep taking this game so seriously

VOTE: NQ

I can still change it to the "self-sacrifice" stuff though if Enchant/Tejate/NQ all agree to at least consider GL/Fua more seriously if I'm flipped as town today.

Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore.

you clearly do lol

...

true, I still care, but I don't want to...!

I should already have finished half of what I was planning to watch today and I'm still on episode 1 because I can't stop thinking about this game/writing those posts...

so I'm liberating myself with this post by voting NQ and going along with consensus! I r-really am...

I DON'T CARE ANYMORE, I DON'T WANT TO CARE ANYMORE okay?

At least I talked about GL/Fua to everyone, if we lose here to that team it wouldn't be completely on me considering at least I tried, so I could live with that...

[Shirou]

also fua agreed to be copped so that Tejate is confirmed I think, Ceph.

Right, fua?



No reason to not want to be copped if you're town, right? It would make this game get on auto from your pov.

[Shirou]

Unless NQ is scum.

If NQ is scum it kinda means Ceph isn't gonna be confirmed after we flip NQ, and we will still have 2 miseliminations for one scum in [Shirou/Ceph/GL] (considering a scenario where fua is town, and fua/Tejate is the people I'm trying to convince here).

If NQ is scum, I believe Ceph should check GL for example. That way, even if he gets an inno on GL, it's guaranteed for us to win if fua is town, since we would have 2 miseliminations for two slots [Shirou/Ceph]

If NQ flips scum and we check fua, if the last scum is inside [Shirou/GL/Ceph] (which is what most people would believe if NQ flipped scum right?), we could end up losing.

I believe the cop checking fua if NQ flips town, and GL if flips scum, is a good plan.

@Fua What do you think? I'm also fine if you switch GL with me. We can't both be scum if NQ is scum, and if NQ is town and the scum team in your pov would be exactly NQ/GL, we check you so that there's no way for us to miseliminate you.

Sounds good?

[Shirou]

so if NQ flips scum, you'd rather the pool of suspects be {fua, Tejate, Shirou, Ceph} instead of {GL, Shirou, Ceph}? am I understanding you correctly?

Why would Tejate be a suspect if NQ flips scum? If NQ flips scum Tejate is also confirmed which is why it removes the additional benefit of checking fua.

If Tejate is scum he needs to be scum with fua, and with NQ being confirmed scum that's impossible since there would only be one scum left.

p-edit: yeah Tejate would be conftown

[Shirou]

oh wait nvm, if NQ is scum then Tejate is conftown

I don't think I see the difference between checking fua or myself on a NQ scumflip tbh, either should be fine?

The consensus opinion is that fua is townier than you or me.

Therefore, on everyone pov, Shirou/NQ or GL/NQ should be a much more likely team than Fua/NQ.

If Fua gets checked on a NQ scum flip, Ceph isn't confirmed so that makes it possible for one scum in [Ceph/Shirou/GL] to win a 1v1 in the last day.

If one of [Shirou/GL] gets checked, it of course makes it possible for a scum!fua to win in that situation if the team was Fua/NQ.

However, most people on a NQ scum flip believe that scum is in [Ceph/Shirou/GL], so to not receive the blame if for example, scum!Ceph or scum!GL wins here by us double checking fua on my request, I would like to point this out.

That if NQ is scum, there's a possibility of scum!Ceph or scum!GL winning if we do check fua.

[Shirou]

(and I guess from a 3rd person pov, there's a possibility of me winning if NQ is my partner and the cop checks fua rather than GL).

is it funny yet to suggest a Shirou/NQ team when like, everyone agreeing on copping fua would be the best result for us (even if it was still a really bad spot to be) and I am here stopping it?

p-edit: yeah, checking either you or me in a scum flip is the best we can hope, who knows maybe both of us are town and ceph is scum, if we check fua in that scenario we both lose

[Shirou]

I guess FYPOV if you assume NQ scum, fua town, and you town, then checking me should be highest odds of getting a guilty, but I feel like a fua inno just leads to the next two lims being Shirou/GL anyways

yeah exactly

which is why I know if NQ flips town the result on fua needs to be a guilty, just as you should know that as well, but from a 3rd person pov where they believe it's Shirou/GL for example, they should also be okay with us checking fua in that scenario because if fua gets an inno, we're always eliminated together next.

[Shirou]

So, my suggestion is:

If NQ is town, Ceph gets confirmed, and targets Fua, which leaves only [Shirou/GL] on the elimination pool if we exclude Enchant, and it seems everyone agrees to exclude Enchant from the pool. If Fua gets an inno there, from a 3rd person pov, the scum team needs to be Shirou + GL, and if Fua receives a guilty, town would need to decide who in [Shirou/GL] is Fua's partner.

If NQ is scum, Ceph isn't confirmed, therefore the pool is [Ceph/Shirou/GL] and since we only would have up to 2 miseliminations but 3 targets, Ceph should target either me or GL so that we either get the last guilty, or we get an inno and get back to 2 eliminations for 2 players, which leave us on auto again (unless fua is scum with NQ, but bleh, can't hope to win here if that's the team I think).

[Shirou]

The above is a completely neutral suggestion that should be the best from everyone pov if they are town I believe, even fua.

The above leaves no chance for a miselimination on fua for example, which is what a team like Shirou/GL would need, but also makes it impossible to get the extra elimination from Ceph if NQ is scum and the theoretical teams would be Shirou/NQ or GL/NQ.

The unique pairing it clearly loses to is Fua/NQ, but eh, if it's fua/NQ to hell with this game. There's no perfect solutions and I would have tried my best to be wary of fua as reasonable as possible.

[Shirou]

naturally, the "lim me" plan somehow finds its way into dissolving into a supposedly objectively better alternative. it always seems to do this

kkkkk

I know it sounds sus but I was actually quite a bit convinced it's fua/guilty by their random spat on the day opening. I still kinda am. However I'm also progressively more and more afraid of being wrong every time people just seem to shrug off my suggestion.

I'm not a very confident person, if no one says "hey, maybe you're onto something", I just kinda default to "maybe I should change tracks" most of the time, but especially because if Fua/GL isn't the solve and I do stray us from our mech plan yesterday for this, losing the game may end up being single-handedly my fault. I don't want to rob people of winning to try risking a "hero solve" that no one seems to believe in.

However, it's also true it's a bit...hm, ?manipulative?, true.

After all, if it's scenario 1, and NQ flips town, then naturally I would by process of elimination end up with Fua/Guilty again, just like from GL's pov it would be Fua/Shirou, and by doing what I did today, maybe I'll have a bit extra ammo to prove that GL is the hypothetical fua's partner rather than me.

(the above is once again, excluding Enchant from the pool, and I will stand by that...)

[Shirou]

Alternatively we could assume fua is town and check for Enchant if NQ flips town, but hmm, I feel like there would be more opposition to this version.

I'm not sure if I would be opposed to that despite what I said about fua though. I feel like...deep in my heart, scum!fua is kinda a nonsense solve because it's hard to believe they would have gone for a no kill gambit in N1 like that...

I can count on one hand the number of scum players I've known in 4 years that would resort to that ballsy tactic on N1. I really thought Morph had to be scum with NQ yesterday since that would be the unique scenario where scum didn't do an unusually risky gambit here...

[Shirou]

Pick your WIFOM poison, because it's soon gonna be confirmed to be *at least* one of those but could also be two of them:

> Scum voluntarily no night killed on N1 for a chance of being confirmed.

> Scum cleared their own partner on D2.

> Scum deliberately risked being guilted on N3 rather than nightkilling me on N2 or N3.

[Shirou]

I have already expressed my opinion on this on day 3. I thought fua's proposed pools were terrible and they made me physically grimace. You not going with a GL check when your read has suddenly wrapped back to scum!GL though isn't reassuring either.

Hm

If fua or NQ isn't scum I've no option right now other than assume GL is scum. (Since I'm assuming Enchant is town after today posts).

It's kinda PoE really, I still think GL is objectively towny but Morph flipping town just makes it hard to not mention him on the possible teams from my pov...?

This bothers me a lot still, because mechanically speaking Shirou's plan should be correct. So why is there this sudden backpedal, and conflicting reads from Shirou?

We've 2 eliminations left right now Tejate. If Fua/GL is the team as I suspected, if I blindly voted NQ here, tomorrow it would be GL pairing me off with Fua, and Fua pairing me off with GL. Even if Ceph got a guilty on one, the other one would try to pair me up with the remaining one. If I'm miseliminated there, it would be game over for us from my pov.

I really felt like their entrance posts talking about Fua/Shirou or GL/Shirou were the preparation for that, coupled with how fua suddenly tried to leash themselves on GL on Day 3, I strongly felt it was GL/Fua and still do to a good degree. So I got a bit riled up.

However the more I think about this, the more I realize that I probably shouldn't already assume NQ is town and go for that, even if I do still think that me self-voting and making a big show of NQ being town and GL/Fua being the team, would be the most likely way for us to win against that team specifically, but hm, the more I think about it like I said, the less sure I'm that I've the "hero solve" rather than just being too paranoid. A Fua/GL team would have played rather riskily compared to what I've seen around here in 4 years...

[Shirou]

I'd like to get mech stuff sorted before the end of the day since I feel like I'm just going to be super dead tonight, so if anyone has any problems with my Ceph check proposal please engage.

Hm, I think if whoever we flip today flips town, we kinda always should investigate fua because getting a guilty when the pool is this small isn't very helpful compared to an inno...

For example imagine we eliminate NQ today, they flip town for some reason and the pool is [Fua, GL, Shirou]. If you get a guilty there, you still need to risky a fifty-fifty on who is the last scum.

However if you get an inno, you automatically know the scum team.

Guilties are more valuable when you've multiple suspects (like the beginning of the game), but the smaller a pool is, the more helpful innos are.

The exception is...a guilty on fua. In my opinion if there's a deepwolf in this game, it's fua, and it's hard to imagine that we win against scum!fua without a guilty that can convince most people to vote there. I wouldn't want to vote fua without a guilty either if at all possible, if we're wrong, it would be a really bad mistake and everyone would be cursing us from the dead thread.

However hm...If I'm not being neutral, I guess I do like your plan considering a hypothetical inno on me would make me feel so peaceful/at ease. It would also be a really good result for town to narrow down the PoE as well, perhaps even more helpful than a guilty on fua since it would make the team look like GL/Fua by process of elimination.

However...that's only because I know I'm town of course...hypothetically speaking if you got a guilty on me, it would be actually a fairly wasted investigation since I was a common suspect anyway.

[Shirou]

common suspect anyway.

Who do you think Ceph should check in the case of scum!nQ flip?[/quote]
Hmm, I explained it before but in the case of a scum!NQ flip, we kinda have two choices:

Ceph would be not confirmed at all in that scenario, so:
1) If we treat them as conftown anyway we can try to confirm fua
2) If we include Ceph in the pool of suspects we need to give up in ever getting fua right here most likely

if NQ is scum, it means we've up to 2 miseliminations left to kill 3 players in the pool [Shirou, Ceph, GL]. There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose. If we check fua that problem remains, but if we check either GL or Me, it would mean we are guaranteed to win as long as fua isn't the last scum.

It's a tricky situation...and since I'm a coward, despite what I said, I believe including Ceph in the pool and not checking fua in this scenario is the correct choice to not have a potential salty postgame. If we lose to scum!fua everyone is just gonna praise fua, but if we lose to either scum!GL or scum!Ceph (and from a 3rd person pov, scum!me), we would be losing a game that was technically on a silver plate for us, just because of last minute paranoia.

Therefore, I would say if NQ is scum, either me or GL being checked is the go to choice for minimum risk? But I guess fua isn't unreasonable if you want to get dangerous...

[Shirou]

There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.

Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?

I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.

[Shirou]

Hmm, that's a detail I hadn't thought about Tejate, but still...the point isn't about trusting or not Ceph result though if NQ flips scum?

It's about removing either me or GL of the elimination pool so that there's exactly 2 eliminations for 2 players. If we check fua, if he doesn't come up with an inno and we win the game right there, we still would have the problem of 3 players left in the pool, but only 2 eliminations.

Your point is really good though.

[Shirou]

There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.

Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?

I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.

also this is a complete derp as well

forget math right now I'm too sleepy.

[Shirou]

There's by default/random a 25% mathematical probability we lose.

Hm, actually, I guess 33%. Derp?

I kinda thought two days being a fifty-fifty chance, but that's a weird way of thinking about this on hindsight.

also this is a complete derp as well

forget math right now I'm too sleepy.

okay the actual number is truly 33% I think? since there's 6 combinations but in 4 of them we win, so 4/6 -> 2/3 -> ~ 66%? Therefore around 33% chance of losing by default mhm.

May Implo confirm or deny this in postgame.

[Shirou]

Okay, how about this. We flip nQ, Ceph checks fua (regardless of nQ alignment), GL protects Ceph. Is everyone okay with that plan?

/shrug

I'm okay with this if it's what you want to do even though as I said, it's kinda risky if NQ flips scum since you give a 33% chance to scum!GL, scum!Shirou or scum!Ceph of winning...but hm, I'm fine with it I guess yeah.

[Shirou]

Shouldn't I be the one to decide what to do upon my flip though? I would be the confirmed town here, fua isn't strictly confirmed yet.

It's fine to decide what to do in a hypothetical scum flip on me, but can I get to decide what to do if we flip town?

Ceph checking GL is kind of a really bad idea. If they claim a guilty you'll have literally almost 0 new info. If I flip town it should naturally be GL vs NQ (and consequentially Ceph). scum!Ceph could claim a guilty there and sit on it for the rest of the game, you would have no way to confirm it without risking losing the game.

Honestly, on a town flip on me, I believe Ceph checking NQ isn't a bad idea. Either that or fua, since if they claim a guilty on fua it's a Fua vs Ceph/NQ dayphase, which is risky to them so they may think twice before faking a guilty there if they are scum.

[Shirou]

Probably checking fua is a better idea though...it's just that, hm wow, that's a very messy gamestate. The game can be over by tomorrow and that actually never happens unless Enchant is scum if NQ is eliminated rather than me. At the very least we get an free extra scum by the NQ chain, so we at maximum only would need to find the last one.

By doing me first though, you'll need to find 2 scum, with no room for error, in a 4 players pool [Fua, GL, NQ, Ceph]. Good luck I guess?

[Shirou]

yah wait isn't that just a meaningless idea/point? if Shirou's worry is scum!nQ faked an inno on scum!Ceph, how does Ceph telling us he has an inno/guiilty on nQ resolve that worry or provide any new info either?

You get the confirmation it has to be Ceph/NQ if NQ is scum. So the unique possible pairing for both Ceph and NQ to be scum would be Ceph/NQ...therefore

The game gets on a dilemma of the scum team being either Ceph/NQ or Fua/GL, and Enchant/Tejate gets to decide who is the most likely team, and by eliminating one of the scum in that situation, you get the last one for free.

This is all assuming a town flip on me though, I know that it's different if I flipped scum, but well, I know that's just not a possible scenario.

[Shirou]

Also important, are we all prepared to take the fat L if Enchant is scum, because we don't really have any contingency for that at all.

/shrug

I kinda am, my standing right now is bad enough and I don't want to actually make it worse by nitpicking on Enchant here. However even though I had much more doubt the previous days, today Enchant just focusing on what is mechanically better and telling me to stop the self-sacrifice stuff rather than shading it, kinda made me quite confident they slot is just town here 9 out of 10 times?

[Shirou]

The biggest problem with eliminating me from my pov, is that you'll need to catch 2 scum in 4 players without any room for error.

Ceph investigating NQ in that scenario either give us a free scum if Ceph claims a guilty (what still wouldn't confirm Ceph), or confirms the game has to be either Ceph/NQ or GL/Fua if they claim an inno, tying two slots together and making a fifty-fifty chance at a random that we win, which is actually much higher than the approximate 25% chance of winning otherwise.

If Ceph claims a guilty on someone tomorrow when I'm miseliminated, it'll just create a very WIFOM situation where you'll not only need to risk a fifty-fifty between whoever Ceph accuses and Ceph himself, but also another fifty-fifty between NQ/whoever is left of GL/Fua. They can also claim an inno if scum and try to tie the remaining one of Fua/GL with their partner NQ.

I think practically speaking you always lose to scum!Ceph here if we begin by my elimination and he doesn't check NQ, but it's up to you to decide.

[Shirou]

UNVOTE:

hmm, wait a second

[Shirou]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

[Shirou]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

actually Ceph please answer this as well

[Shirou]

I'm beginning to think that forcing a Ceph/NQ vs GL/Fua dilemma isn't too bad of an idea but hm...to be honest final day if Ceph claims a guilty on NQ there is still 1 elimination for 3 players which makes it 33% chance of winning...

But if it's guaranteed we lose by people just having a murder wish for me no matter the scenarios in final day, no matter if GL or Fua flips scum, maybe sticking with trying to force Ceph/NQ vs GL/Fua isn't a bad idea.

[Shirou]

I'm rather scared of NQ flipping town because from my pov it confirms it needs to be Fua/GL if we aren't wrong on Enchant, and no matter if it's fua or GL, I feel like "saving" the game by convincing people I'm the townie in those scenarios would be a real burden on my shoulders.

NQ isn't even voting me. It feels like they either already gave up as scum, or are simply town...

[Shirou]

NQ not having voted me and keeping the discussion about whether their own elimination is the correct play really doesn't make me confident he's scum.

[Shirou]

If NQ was scum I feel like they had a chance to have eliminated me here if they piled up on me. Are they shy in that scenario because one of his partners are already pushing me? Or...is he just town?

I'm wondering. If NQ flips town this game will be a real headache to me.

[Shirou]

I also do doubt fua is ever scum here with NQ because those course of actions just guaranteed their loss, since NQ was about to be eliminated and fua checked by Ceph.

Would feel weird for fua to missplay this badly if they are scum, since up to now they played an amazing game.

[Shirou]

Ah, this game is such a pain...

[Shirou]

The weirdest part of this game really has to be that even if I think NQ is town, mathematically speaking eliminating them right now is better than my other available options considering all possible scenarios

[Shirou]

If you had the choice of eliminating anyone today, who would it be?

I mean, considering mechanics always me and NQ which brings us to the same dilemma

but supposing that uh, everyone was vanilla townie here and the setup had no special mechanics, one of Fua/GL I would say.

But the weirdest thing is that, I do kinda town lean a little bit even Fua/GL. But it also gets a bit ridiculous to me that Fua/GL as a team would have gambited as much as they did here when we consider mechanics again...

It feels a bit plausible for everyone to be scum but it feels even more plausible they are town, except they can't all be.

[Shirou]

I think unhappily GL would be my top pick if I really had to decide on one person today if there was no mechanics, and I kinda do regret the WIFOM on not checking them.

I would be almost 100% sure they are town if implo hadn't revealed they were N3 Cop, but since Implo claimed, he instantly became a reasonable NK target other than me even if GL is scum.

I was kinda sighing when implo revealed they were a n3 cop, but it was also theoretically speaking the better choice since we truly could have ended up checking the same target since I wasn't ever planning on actually checking GL.

[Shirou]

(I'm never voting GL here though to be clear, it would be disastrous to be wrong there today and lose a free cop check from Ceph).

[Shirou]

Ah, the cold truth is that it's either me or NQ today, and honestly I do secretly want to just die here, but mechanically speaking there isn't a good reason even if I searched for it twice. Maybe I kinda get Dazai from Bungou Stray Dogs now. A person that wants to die but is unable to huh.

VOTE: NQ

Up to you if you want to hammer or not @Tejate. About Ceph checking Fua regardless of what NQ flips, I already explained that in my opinion it may not be the best choice, but I'll concede and agree to it.

Basically, Ceph checking Fua rather than me on a NQ scum flip, means that no matter NQ flip, only hell and suffering waits me on the next few days (will need to keep fighting for other people eliminations/trying to convince people I'm town which sounds like a bit of a lost cause sometimes), but I'll try to resign myself to fate.

[Shirou]

I hope I'm wrong on NQ just like I was wrong on redtea.

See you guys in two days maybe?

[Shirou]

Fua rather than me

me or GL*

[Shirou]

Would you be comfortable with having Ceph choose between checking fua or you on nQ townflip?

Hmm, on town flip?

I totally would but just to be clear, if I'm scum I would be taking advantage of you guys with that. If NQ flips town and you get a guilty on me, it would be kinda suboptimal rather than for example an inno on Fua to confirm that the team is GL/Shirou.

Of course knowing my alignment...I know that an inno on me here on a NQ town flip would simply confirm it to be Fua/GL and from there the game would be basically over (if we aren't wrong on Enchant), but yeah, it relies on me being town to be a good idea, and that isn't public information now is it...

[Shirou]

also hm...sorry I feel like I'm being too bossy. I may be quick to suggest stuff but I also like to not be too stubborn on compromising. At least I feel it doesn't make me an entirely problematic person to deal with, just half problematic.

[Shirou]

1) whoever is scum in the usual suspects is not trying for a viable endgame plan and is just playing how they think town in their spot would play it, or

Hm, I agree so hard with this if NQ is the scum.

I feel like, if they were scum they had such a good shot on eliminating me today and throwing town on chaos tomorrow but they would have missed momentum by trying to play how they think they would play as town, and now it would be making they pay the price.

But I also feel like scum!NQ wouldn't do that maybe...? I don't know NQ well enough.

I guess the same could be said for me maybe but I personally know I'm not scum so...

[Shirou]

Spoiler: useless meta trivia from me

metawise I can affirm that I never played for town wincon more than mafia wincon like I'm doing here, but I know no one cares and neither they should technically speaking. Just trivia info for postgame I guess?

When I suggest something as scum, even if at times (quite frequently in fact) it was truly pro-town and optimal, it often relied on suggesting it when I was immensely distrusted or in a way that would make me distrusted, just so that even if it was optimal, people wouldn't actually follow it and therefore later when the game is a mess, I could say "well, my suggestion was gonna leave us on a better state than this" for town credit.

The distrust part would be kinda on point this game but...I kept pushing for it until it was accepted as the correct play right? I could have given up on that much sooner if I didn't want everyone following it. At the beginning no one even cared that much about it but I kept insisting.

p-edit: I think if Enchant is scum this game would be funny so I'm fine losing to them to be honest. It would be a defeat due to...everyone's fault so technically no one fault? That's an acceptable outcome I think.

p-edit 2: kkkkkk

That would be quite funny.

Honestly I don't scum read your play as much as by process of elimination I think you are the most likely scum. Other than the redtea insistence I guess, that's still creepy to me on hindsight.

[Shirou]

Honestly I don't scum read your play as much as by process of elimination I think you are the most likely scum. Other than the redtea insistence I guess, that's still creepy to me on hindsight.

eh, I still don't like how you were so insistent on not limming redtea for multiple days and then didn't even investigate me to clear me when you had the chance

Yeah, it's fair to suspect me for that yeah.

Do you know what it's funny though?

If I hadn't checked redtea meta, I probably would have simply shrugged off and voted the slot like everyone else. That adds to truly like...the tenth or so time where checking a player "meta" made me get their alignment wrong even if normally I may have got it right without checking.

I really think I'm cursed with this meta stuff. I don't know, maybe I've no ability for it, I rarely ever get a meta read correctly so I've been thinking about stopping using it in most cases altogether (I did even argue for people not using on meta in DK on Team Mafia, which by the way was the correct play because DK was also scum there even if ~towny~ by meta arguments by their friends/acquaintances). Redtea was so hard to read that I thought maybe, just maybe, meta would finally help me, but oh...how wrong I was.

kkkkkk

This game may have been a town win simply by me never defending redtea here, because I probably wouldn't have started the chain of events that did lead me to dropping from one of the highest consensus town read to one of the highest consensus scum read, therefore we would perhaps have an extra elimination than we do now, and that would be a lot. I may use this game to explain why I don't like using meta personally in the future (even if I think it's a good tool when used by the right people in the right way).

[Shirou]

I still gutfeel I would rather the investigate be fua or myself to cover more paranoia scenarios, but I guess I also just have to accept that if nQ flips town and Shirou is town then we've just lost. heck we've lost in that world even if I am cleared cause I'd probably cast a game losing vote on Shirou lol

Same to me if both you and NQ are town. We kinda already lost the game in that scenario in my opinion.

[Shirou]

If you're town though GL, even if I was right on implo, I still think you kinda deserve that scum hunting hat we discussed on Day 2 or so due to getting redtea right here and insisting on it from Day 1.

[Shirou]

Implo was my iconic "I town read them but everyone else thinks they may be scum" read here, except redtea also did fit the bill, and most of the time I only have one of those reads, so no surprise I was wrong on redtea huh! kkkkk

In the future if I end up with two of those reads I may rethink defending them.

It's also funny that I did look at a lot of redtea games and got they wrong, but merely followed my gut on implo and got it right.

[Shirou]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

"hey friends, who should i kill tonight?"

-_-

uh...sure.

Flashback to Shirou silently removing himself from cop pools.

If I remove myself from cop checks you guys see it in a negative light, but if I want to be copped now it's also bad.

What do you guys want exactly...

[Shirou]

i mean, you claim it's an important question but how is it an important question to town-you when there is nothing you can do about it anyway.

I could have refused to kill NQ and killed myself if everyone thought I was scum no matter what, that's what I was considering when I did unvote NQ, but the mathematical chances of us winning here by that kind of chain is kinda...lower even if I do believe maybe it could have worked. Also NQ is perhaps just scum and it would be just a waste if that's the case.

Also²...everyone belittles me when I begin my "actually maybe I should just die" thing here so I kinda didn't want to go for that route again because if it failed to come to fruition, it would lower even more our chances of winning here if I'm to be in the final day against someone.

p-edit: Yeah?

[Shirou]

If I remove myself from cop checks you guys see it in a negative light, but if I want to be copped now it's also bad.

What do you guys want exactly...

Do you want to just let Ceph choose between you and fua regardless of flip result?

Basically: Yeah very much so.

It's actually a scummy thing from me even if you may not think it is, but I would like to be one of the possible targets for a cop check from Ceph because I personally know the result is always an inno on me and it would be very, very helpful.

Dare I say, the game winning move in some scenarios.

[Shirou]

I do wonder if I should have not assumed a complete intellectually honest mindset when discussing those plans and cop targets. Since I know my alignment, what is optimal from my personal POV is different than what may be optimal to everyone else, since I've that extra info, but I haven't tried to deceive any of you into a plan that plays to my advantage due to that extra info.

I may have been completely honest and transparent, but I wonder if whether that's bad play from a townie in my shoes is a valid discussion. Maybe trying to make you genuinely believe that cop checking me here or a bit before is good play in all possible scenarios may have played more favorably to us later.

p-edit: uh, I think that was hammer though Tejate?

NQ (4): GL, Ceph, Shirou, Fua

7 alive therefore it's 4 for an elimination

Kinda weird that fua said it's 5 as if "oh I didn't know this was hammer"...

[Shirou]

like kkkkk

damn I just stopped to think that may be why fua argued it wasn't hammer and "it's 5 to eliminate"

I don't think it would have been a bad hammer at all, but it kinda feels like the perfect excuse to not possibly get flake for the hammer if they were afraid about it?

[Shirou]

So we are in twilight then? Oh.

Yep

which why it's also kiiindaaa scummy for me to want to change the plans and make Ceph maybe cop me

but hey

since I'm already so scum read anyway, wink wink, please check me if possible Ceph?

I PROMISE you it's a green result.

(kkkk, this is totally gonna make him NOT check me isn't it? but maybe if I act so openly sus like this he may check me for the wrong reasons anyway, which would still be a win in my book)

[Shirou]

You know my copium on the previous night was "They may kill Ceph for some random reason rather than Meg, and then I will be the optimal elimination on D5", but I knew deep down it was unlikely.

However, humans need to have hope in their hearts to be able to face life you know?

Therefore my hope tonight is "Ceph for some cosmic random reason is gonna change his mind and actually check me". I'll let hope live in my heart until the inevitable tomorrow comes to crush it.

That's my

mafiascum

way.

[Shirou]

That'd kind of be a weird hammer to try and pull a play like that on, seeing as I declared intent. No real need to distance yourself if you don't hop on the hammer at all.

That's actually a fair argument.

[Shirou]

is this all just some elaborate gambit to get yourself guilted so you don't have to play out a losing game

I'M TRYING TO MAKE HIM BELIEVE I'M SCUM SO HE CHECKS ME GL

DON'T EXPOSE ME LIKE THIS

[Shirou]

It's also funny to tease people by acting scummy when I know I'm town, sometimes.

Then later on I completely regret it because it's a pain to deal with the consequences. When I complain about being scum read here someone should say "Well, well, well. If it isn't the consequence of your actions Shirou". It would be a fun and good way to shade me?

p-edit: it's okay fua, I'm on the top ranking of foolishness here so no one will pay attention to the second, third or fourth place. We only pay attention to the first/top ranking, be it in a negative or positive way...

[Shirou]

I wonder if implo and NSG are still following the game, I want to see their takes on it if they have any.

[Shirou]

Damn Tejate, you wanted to be mafia in this game?

Look at how easily things can go wrong for mafia depending on mech stuff. I was the opposite and even though I'm fine with being mafia in most games nowadays, I always prayed for a town pm here. It's a shame I didn't ge-

...

*cough*

I mean I'm happy I got one yeah

(CEPH DOES THIS POST MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE CHECKING ME RATHER THAN FUA YET?)

[Shirou]

Not gonna lie, I secretly want to die because I kind of want to see how the ghosts are doing. I miss when Amazonian was alive.

Ghosts are probably shit talking us a lot for being dumbasses. Especially now that Morph is there.

If you're town, you've no idea how afraid I'm to read the likely multiple, long insults I'm probably receiving over there for introducing paranoia about your slot in this game...

[Shirou]

listen. i hate you.

kkkkkkk

[Shirou]

I'm rather curious since NQ hasn't posted after being hammered

[Shirou]

Fua is innocent

You really checked fua when from your POV it would be better to check the most suspicious person (aka me) on a NQ scum flip?

Like, if you really are that confident I'm scum, you could have just checked me and ended the game right there from your PoV. The fact you didn't is really weird.

[Shirou]

For what is worth regardless of the outcome this game ends up in, I want to note I suggested either me or GL being checked on a NQ scum flip, rather than fua. I think it would have been a better cop check when there's only one scum left, so a guilty here ends the game.

We did get Enchant/Tejate to endorse checking me or GL as an option by the end, but Ceph still did choose to check fua even though he has firmly believed I'm scum since forever (and therefore the game would end from his PoV if he checked me?). It's kinda an interesting point to explore, but I don't know, I don't necessarily believe Ceph is scum now, but I was really ready to call him town if he had checked either me or GL here rather than fua.

If he had checked either me or GL, if he was scum he would need to 1v1 fua to win, which would be much harder to do than to 1v1 either me or GL.

[Shirou]

So far Ceph has done exactly what scum!Ceph should do.

He tried to get my elimination yesterday if it was possible, but switched to NQ due to demand.

He checked fua when given the options of me or GL, when if he got a guilty on one of us (his top suspects), it would end the game.

/shrug

Dunno what to think about this but I feel he's arguably less town than before, and I was almost considering him conftown back in D3.

[Shirou]

I do wonder if there's a reason for Enchant dying rather than Tejate, or if it's just WIFOM.

[Shirou]

Hm, I think Implosion died because they had NQ in their pool as well, maybe?

Which...actually also makes it weird if GL is scum, kinda?

*Maybe* Implosion would check NQ, but that was a maybe. There was also Morph that was fairly suspected.

However I was almost leashing myself to GL...for two days.

Amazonian also died rather than Ceph on N2.

I know that if I was scum angling for Ceph would be my job, but like, I'm genuinely a bit surprised that this game kinda makes more sense if Ceph is scum than if GL is.

p-edit: yeah kinda

[Shirou]

Also I know this is self-defense but yesterday if I was scum I also did intentionally tried to get Ceph off checking fua (which was the best result to me since it means I need to duel GL/Ceph rather than risk a guilty on me or to duel Ceph/Fua). I even did try to bait them into checking me by posting acting sus by the end.

My unique question about this game if it's Ceph/NQ is...why the hell was NQ trying to get fua eliminated? It sounded like desperation but I don't think they had to despair like that...

Although initially we planned to just assume fua is town rather than cop check, so that guaranteed Ceph/NQ to lose as well by my plan, therefore that's where the desperation came from.

[Shirou]

2809 leaves such a bad taste in my mouth. I don't know what a good way is for town to justify their poorly-received gambits, but this did not look like that. The gambit itself is totally disproportionate in terms of risk/reward, and everything Shirou has said about it afterwards has just been scum desperate to paint it in a better light. I really struggle to see it as anything but that. Shirou was pretty high on my reads list up until the GL thing yesterday, and the aftermath today is just making me feel worse and worse about the slot.

VOTE: Shirou

At this point I don't see a reason to see out their cop claim. It will just muddy the waters more when they do turn out to be scum. Unless we have a strong contender for who their partner is and people think there's value in letting the cop claim go through for some reason.

There are sour opinions on morph's alignment so maybe somebody will argue that they're a better lim today. I'm not getting those same vibes, morph's felt null-town for most of the game and as I go back and look at the reaction to fua's fake-claim I do think it's +town.

Actually I think everyone should keep claiming. Why listen to Shirou?

ouch...

sigh

numberq

please

I'm begging you and anyone with the same idea...

it's fine to eliminate me and scum read me even if I come up with a guilty tomorrow, but please not today.

If you are scum, I think it would be a bad idea to let you live another day. It will mean a wasted day as we mull over your fake result. Even if we quick lim you, what does that gain us over getting rid of scum today? And I don't like the idea of giving you another chance to NK someone to try and turn perception away from limming you tomorrow.

If anyone has a compelling reason to want hear the results of Shirou's investigation tomorrow I'll listen, but to me it just feels like setting ourselves up to muddy the waters further.

For what it's worth, the way he tried to get me eliminated before I could get my cop shot, but on a later day completely rethought their read on me, is kinda the same thing he did to fua, and we now know fua is town?

:thonking:

(Yes I'm shamelessly trying to convince you I'm town here)

[Shirou]

I'm curious to see what GL has to say.

It also pinged me that yesterday he said something that seemed to only make sense for him to be scum, if NQ was town, but NQ flipped scum so I wonder if that's an extra reason to think from my pov that it's Ceph rather than GL the final one.

[Shirou]

it's effectively the plan we followed, and I wonder if he really can get this far and expect to win just by trying to play mechanically as if he were town

*nod*

this was literally the plan:

One of the cops check one of Shirou/NQ, and we eliminate the other. Who we eliminated was based on who in Meg/Ceph dies, so since Meg that had to check NQ died, we eliminated NQ. If Ceph had died, it would be me. Effectively making impossible for a Shirou/NQ team to win.

What I wanted to change back on D5 was that if it was GL/Fua the team, it was better to eliminate ME first, and have Ceph check NQ. I never tried to change the plan to do if we eliminated NQ first, which would be for the cop to check me, but since we were in 6:6 on claims, it was also viable to check you.

I think even if you believe in me playing for WIFOM, there's a difference between WIFOM and just digging the hole yourself single-handedly you know...

If Ceph/Tejate had done what I said yesterday to do if NQ flipped scum (and had also said since D4), I would have already lost this game.

[Shirou]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

Your idea sounds good I think...

except I know I'm town and probably never picked as the assumed town here so basically from my PoV we either win today or likely lose

WHICH IS WHY I DIDN'T WANT A FUA CHECK IF NQ FLIPPED SCUM.

[Shirou]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

Your idea sounds good I think...

except I know I'm town and probably never picked as the assumed town here so basically from my PoV we either win today or likely lose

WHICH IS WHY I DIDN'T WANT A FUA CHECK IF NQ FLIPPED SCUM.

If it's any consolation I won't vote for you today.

kkkk

thanks?

[Shirou]

Honestly, thinking about it, it may have been better if nQ flipped town funnily enough. town!nQ flip + town!fua check = scumteam 100% confirmed.

kkkk

I knew this had to be an impossible combination of events unless Enchant was scum, so that's why I wanted a fua check only if NQ flipped town.

I knew Ceph had to get a guilty on fua in that scenario. But that's also why I didn't want Ceph checking fua if NQ flipped scum, Fua/NQ just wasn't likely. If Fua was scum, I knew it had to be with GL.

But hm, I'm the impatient kind and I don't think I'm gonna wait weeks to vote here. I've mulled over this and I think Ceph being scum may make more sense than GL.

p-edit: Yeah, GL sacrificing himself would perhaps be the best play to counter that.

[Shirou]

No, to be more precise.

GL makes more sense as scum by dayplay.

Ceph makes more sense as scum by associatives + night actions.

[Shirou]

/shrug

I'm okay with betting this game is town!GL and scum!Ceph right now

If I'm wrong I guess we lose tomorrow but I won't blame myself too badly because I said, multiple times, that in a scum flip on NQ it was better to check me, or at least GL.

VOTE: Ceph

Also If anyone thinks this is too fast for me to have made a decision, you're wrong and if you're annoying enough about it I can link you the game where in the last day I just almost insta-voted even when I was town (and it's not actual last day here at the moment). You should have noticed by now that I hate waiting when I already have made my decision.

[Shirou]

If we lose this game now I expect so much salt in postgame

By the way if Ceph flips town this game is likely over just saying

[Shirou]

I think the last thing I've to say about NQ, is that they didn't seem to be trying to distance themselves from GL as they were dying, which is...weird.

They weren't voting me or GL, even though it was the perfect time to try to distance yourself from your partners.

But...they tried really hard to get me eliminated on D3 before I could get my cop shot out...

Coincidence? I don't think so.

p-edit: wait a min GL, I'm gonna eat something and then come back to reply why I think your dayplay is scummier than Ceph depending on how you look at it, but I also think Ceph has been scummy here on dayplay.

[Shirou]

Okay back, to sum up why I think by dayplay GL is probably a bit more likely to come from scum compared to Ceph when looked at a vacuum, is because it seems hm...a bit too safe considering the flips?

He suspected redtea from the start, voted NQ as soon as it seemed like the "correct play" to do, etc. Look at fua for example that is confirmed town right now, they hesitated a lot, they changed their mind a lot through the days/weeks, and similarly that also applies to some level on Tejate.

However GL play here is kinda like hmm...a perfect cube?

All the proportions feel right. It's hard to point anything wrong with it, and that's kinda exactly the problem to me...

You see, normally people that just pick a pen and try to draw, don't get a perfect or remotely perfect cube like that. They need to intentionally be calculating stuff to achieve that.

GL here gives me the vibe he has consciously choose course of actions that would give him a good image in the end of this game, and it's also how me and a lot other people play scum.

I did read Implosion as town for doing the exact opposite thing as well; Openly defending redtea like that, even if they were town (and especially if they were scum), is simply BAD. Scum like to play safe most of the time, and GL's play has been safe all around. Even fua that is one of the towniest players alive at the moment, or Tejate, has a lot of things you can delve deeper into in their ISO to create a scum case/narrative, but that's not very much the case with GL.

It's smooth and safe, picturesque even, but it's actually rather rare to look at a townie's ISO and not see some dubious stuff. When scum!GL played against me in my first newbie, I clearly remember it being exactly like this: His play was clean, to the point it was

too clean

.

However, I also do feel like he has hesitated about stuff and reconsidered here more than back in my newbie, and also that game is ancient by this point. It's just my view on GL as a whole I think, the more superficially scummy he sounds, the more I probably would town read him, and the more superficially town in all aspects he sounds, the more I suspect him. I simply have that high standard for his scum game and I don't see why I should change it based on what I've seen from him.

Hmm, but either way, that's in a vacuum, and also Ceph has been just as scummy all things considered since they have...dunno, by dayplay kinda seemed like just completely disinterested on this game for the longest time, and from the night actions, it also seems to point to him.

Therefore I think it's just Ceph at the moment...?

/shrug

I'm fine losing to GL by this point I guess.

[Shirou]

Basically I don't think GL is necessarily scum as much as I think he shouldn't be town read by the reasons Tejate for example is using...but I'm also no expert on GL to make some sort of guide about what is alignment indicative or not on him.

Well either way, by voting Ceph I've already bet all my chips there, so...maybe should save this discussion for postgame kkkk?

[Shirou]

If Ceph is town I feel a bit guilty about being the one to introduce paranoia about fua, which ended up influencing Tejate to recommend checking fua even on a NQ scum flip, but ultimately I still don't think I should be held totally accountable for that because when I talked about a cop check on fua, I was always talking about a scenario where NQ flipped town.

I always recommended checking either me or GL in a scum flip on NQ, and if that had been the case we probably would have automatically won this, but still...I don't feel like this situation is solely due to my actions. I did introduce paranoia about fua...but it ended up being more effective than what I actually wanted to accomplish (people becoming aware of the fact fua feels so competent that it's not impossible they would be scum here if NQ was town, in my opinion, and in fact I would have kinda known that due to PoE if NQ had flipped town).

I was working on a possible scenario where I would need to fight fua, to not seem like I suddenly had to get suspicious of their slot out of desperation in the final day, but if Ceph is town I may have ended up influencing the consensus so much about fua that it ended up backfiring really badly...?

Honestly it's kinda funny that if GL is scum, we almost caught him twice already with night actions.

p-edit: I know, but what am I supposed to do other than talk about what I think of the game? Maybe not you, but maybe fua by a miracle could see that I may be town if we get Ceph wrong.

I'm almost finishing my rants for today though, dunno if I have anything else to say.

[Shirou]

To be honest it's just that I want to talk about my thoughts on the game naturally, even if it's kinda meaningless.

Who cares if it's useful or not by this point. I've thoughts about it and am unloading them right now?

But hm, maybe I'll try to tone down on activity if that's what everyone thinks I should do.

[Shirou]

I was more pointing out who you want elim'd on its own doesn't really hold much weight, since all 3 of you should always pretty much want to elim those 2 people no matter what.

Ah, I see. That's true.

By the way unrelated but...catboi, I've newfound admiration for you. Those are some really good chainsaw man fanart in the votecounts.

I wonder when the anime starts airing...I remember it's at some point this year but dunno when.

p-edit: yep fua, very based.

[Shirou]

kkkkk

that feels like a really pointless question Tejate...but hmmm, let's see what fua replies I guess, since they were the one you asked this to.

[Shirou]

Unless you mean who between Ceph/GL would fua be "screaming" at you for from dead thread in case I get limmed today. That's an interesting question, although it's probably just answered by who they are voting today.

[Shirou]

Well, I myself haven't come to a decision yet, but I figure now's a good a time as any to ask. fua, if you don't survive the night and I am the decision maker at LiLo assuming we flip town!Ceph today, who would you be most likely to scream at me from dead thread to vote?

Shirou because I would feel better about losing to GL than letting scum Shirou win after everything that's happened.

can't say that's the wrong mindset to have

If I was on your shoes and didn't know my meta I would do/say the same

[Shirou]

Although it's not 100% and I would rather let you choose than anything else.

I know, but man LiLo is stressful. My worst fear is that I survive to it and get all the flak if we lose.

As long as you vote me NO ONE in this game can blame you if GL is the final scum...

...

oh no...

DID I JUST GIVE AWAY THE KEY TO NOT BEING BLAMED EVEN IF WE LOSE BY THAT COURSE OF ACTION?

[Shirou]

NSG is probably not reading this at all but I really would have liked to see her read on me here

probably strong scum read but hm, who knows I guess.

I think only one person would correctly town read me here, maybe two?

[Shirou]

Honestly I think this game is already kinda over and from anyone's POV if GL is town we win and if GL is scum we lose, so...

is it bad that I would already like a hammer on Ceph? I know it's a pipe dream but uh, yeah kkkkk.

If I'm flipped today rather than Ceph because I can't keep my mouth shut and keep spouting scummy shit like this, do know that I would be leaning for Ceph tomorrow as well most likely.

p-edit: oh wow, seems like today may perhaps be our first quick day...

[Shirou]

The way that Ceph has been kinda shrugging off this game kinda reminds me of how he played on Jingle's large game where the setup was 2 micros by dividing the playerlist (forgot the name).

On hindsight, it also doesn't seem like anything similar to Baton Pass.

I feel like not only Ceph, but also NQ and redtea were kinda very demotivated from playing the game, and I don't think it's a coincidence...

Redtea may have been scum, but it's genuinely the first time in at least half a year that they played a scum game so non-energetically.

[Shirou]

The way that Ceph has been kinda shrugging off this game kinda reminds me of how he played on Jingle's large game where the setup was 2 micros by dividing the playerlist (forgot the name).

On hindsight, it also doesn't seem like anything similar to Baton Pass.

I feel like not only Ceph, but also NQ and redtea were kinda very demotivated from playing the game, and I don't think it's a coincidence...

Redtea may have been scum, but it's genuinely the first time in at least half a year that they played a scum game so non-energetically.

to be clear on Jingle's game he was scum and ended up replacing after increasingly talking less and less

On Baton Pass he kept posting and engaging.

Kinda a two-dimensional read since my experience with them is so small, but hm, yeah?

[Shirou]

wait, wait, wait.

and what do you mean

my actions

exactly...?

I'm completely fine with losing, but to be clear, even though I'm partially responsible of course for losing the consensus trust you had on me by acting too emotionally to GL associating me with redtea back then, we wouldn't lose this game at all if either you or Ceph had followed what I said yesterday (checking either me or GL on a scum flip on NQ), if Ceph is town by any chance.

I'm completely fine with us losing if I'm wrong on Ceph, and if you're all fine with losing if you're wrong on me as well, feel free to hammer yes. That's the natural course of action this game would take even if we waited weeks. I know GL well enough to know that if he's scum, he's not gonna slip now that the game is almost practically won for him.

However...don't put the entire fault of losing this game on me if I'm wrong on Ceph okay? I don't think I would be the sole responsible for our loss here in that scenario, even if I had a part on it.

If by "consequence of my actions" you mean that I accept being turboeliminated tomorrow if we're wrong on Ceph, yes I do. I would be okay with that.

However if you mean that I should accept that if Ceph is town, us losing this game is all my fault, hm no? I don't accept that version of the history...

[Shirou]

Oh, okay.

Ah, I'm getting a cold feeling in my stomach to be honest...scum claiming cop on D2 and clearing their own partner sounds kinda like a fantasy novel rather than what happens in an actual game usually but...

Hmm, I'm fine with it yes. Feel free to hammer. Liberate me from this game if I'm wrong *or* right on Ceph.

(Also yes, let's all vote for fast night here if the game doesn't end).

[Shirou]

Catboi, if we win today you need to post a really good chainsaw man fanart at the votecount you know...

it's like, a reward or something.

(you're free to post as well if it doesn't end though)

[Shirou]

Impressive town, you resisted miseliminating me for the rest of the game even though I messed up by getting too riled up about GL pushing me on D2.

kkkkkk

I can't believe I didn't die here at some point.

@NQ did you guys claim an inno on Ceph so that you were less likely to be investigated during the night?

To be honest, it was a smart move and you almost won, it's just unusual for scum to be so bold usually, even if being bold may be the best move.

[Shirou]

also nice chainsaw man art catboi!

thanks for modding, it was stressing but since we won it was fun.

sorry for messing up on pronouns early on, I think I got better by the end though. I was just unsure of what to call Meg/Enchant but kept forgetting about directly asking.

[Shirou]

thanks for playing everybody it was an enjoyable experience for me and I hope it was the same for you all as well! I apologize that I got a bit salty/aggro with Shirou, implo, and fua at points this game, there were a few times it felt like everyone was suspecting me and I let it rile me up a bit more than I should have. but glad it didn't ever compromise the game state and we were still able to block it out and win!!

Sorry for the D2 stuff as well.

I got so riled up with you pushing me that I biased myself on your alignment and did stuff that I regretted almost instantly due to becoming less sure you really were scum after a few minutes/seconds had passed.

When I get too angry/stressed about something I do very questionable actions...

[Shirou]

I think this setup is anywhere between very balanced and very unbalanced based on randomization.

I don't mean randomization as only what roles/nights are randed though, I mean randomization as in "are the cops also the most beneficial players to nightkill considering dayplay?"

I enjoy swingy setups but I feel like scum should have...some kind of counterplay to do here rather than solely rely on randomization not being atrocious for them...

[Shirou]

A rather good point for scum!Ceph in my head by the end was the Amazonian NK. I think this game is a rare case where NK speculation was useful.

Wanted to point this out because I think in the final day or close to it, looking on the nightkills collectively on hindsight can actually tell us one thing or two, and not many people do that nowadays (or accept that as valid arguments).

It's easy to do one single WIFOM nightkill, but it's hard for scum to always do WIFOM NKs without cornering themselves.

[Shirou]

Shirou dying D5 was probably our last hope, so it does make me feel slightly better lol

me not dying was due to the mech but can we laugh at the fact that not only every townie wanted me to die, but I also personally truly wanted to die for 3 in-game days (and therefore IRL weeks), and brought that up multiple times trying to find a way where it was optimal for us to start some kind of plan by eliminating me, but survived until endgame?

I couldn't stop paying attention/caring about this game, but at the same time it was distracting me a bit too much from some other stuff I need to focus on right now. I didn't want to replace out because I used to replace out a lot in the past and therefore vowed to stop that behavior whenever possible (and it was possible really, I just wanted the commitment to be done asap, either by winning the game by turboeliminating, or by getting eliminated myself).

[Shirou]

Can’t believe y’all would torment my friend Shirou like this.

the chainsaw man art by the end was worth it after all though

Spoiler: