CONTROL - GAME OVER!

[The Three Bears]

ok i've decided. after my tests, tuesday night, im going to read all of day 1.

[NorwegianboyEE]

why do you townread us norwee?

Do you think i should be scumreading or paranoid of you?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m more in doubt of whether Roden or Mastina could possibly be scum.

[The Three Bears]

i wanna know why you think we're town

[NorwegianboyEE]

That’s gonna require quoting posts. I’ll do it later.

[mastina]

No message?

I assume incompetence as the only options are sending to scum who didn't claim, Malakittens in spite of her being the obv kill, or tictac the ascetic.

Best I can think of is to reread Day 7 and see if anyone TMI'd that it wasn't actually ELo.

This, but for TMI of only 4 scum. I can't do that until Thursday, but I'll see what I can do then.

That's what I was thinking, but that's also the easy answer, and every time we tried to vote for the easy answer the past three days, we ended up flipping town. I'm hesitant to just say "yeah it's probably Tictac" after we said "yeah it's probably Galron/Toog/Andante" and barely even got any info out of the flips.

I mean Galron was just incompetence. There was no way Galron was scum there. You pushed that through in spite of me literally giving you the reasons why Galron should've just been town.

Toogeloo fakeclaimed as town--during massclaim. That biased our perspectives by giving us faulty information and making us operate under false assumptions.

Yesterday, for Andante, we assumed yesterday was mylo. That was a false assumption.

False assumptions may have led to the Toog/Andante mislims, but those two flipping town does not mean the poe in of itself was wrong. It just meant that we had faulty assumptions that led us to eliminate the town in the PoE first, before the scum. But the PoE basically

can't

be wrong.

me doing everything in my power to avoid a town elim?

That in of itself is arguably TMI.

Yesterday was not mylo. Town could die without the town losing the game. So scum defending the town mislim sets that scum up for mylo.

why would i bus tictac in that situation? it would be suicide

If it actually went through, sure. But scum had the knowledge that yesterday wasn't actually mylo so they had the knowledge that quickhammers would never be a real thing, which meant that voting tictac was far less risky.

Fake Vote: tictac

HURT: tictac
+1 to this.

I think that tictac is actually the best elimination here, even though I still believe Ceph is scum per the above. As for why tictac,

i think if we have 2 scum with molding ability then Tictac is prob one, and the other is fake claiming being molded to get townread for it.

^This would be why.

(And, again: Norwee saying what I was thinking before I could say it? Proof that Norwee is town.)

[Cephrir]

False assumptions may have led to the Toog/Andante mislims, but those two flipping town does not mean the poe in of itself was wrong. It just meant that we had faulty assumptions that led us to eliminate the town in the PoE first, before the scum. But the PoE basically can't be wrong.

"This thing that didnt work 3 times is guaranteed to work this time for sure! Don't worry town, no need to reevaluate!"

[Cephrir]

That in of itself is arguably TMI.

This is a laughable excuse to continue to push the same crap.

[mastina]

like her reads were good good good and then they just went totally downhill. i need to revisit her day 1 reads with the current flips in mind

My reads never stopped being good, with the exception of Toogeloo and Andante. I had Galron as locktown for instance, and have been calling Ceph scum the whole game. I've also been calling you town which you know to be correct, so my accuracy here is just fine, thankyouverymuch.

Page 232 shows Tictac "forgetting" we didn't have a "mislim banked" or whatever. If that's something you'd be looking for.

Also tictac pushed for a no-lim when, per the mold existing, that would be a hilariously bad idea.

liked mastina being pissed that i stole her rightful place on scum-andante wagon, but then she updated not at all on town-andante

You might not have hammered a wagon on scum for the towncred, but what you

did

do was get a fast-pass to mylo.

And, what I said about the denial of information remains true. You prevented me from having a chance to analyze more, as I had intended to do later that day.

The exact reasons for why the hammer was a scumclaim have changed, sure! That the hammer was a scumclaim has not, because it still very much was one.

[mastina]

I’m more in doubt of whether Roden or Mastina could possibly be scum.

Roden is

possible

, I admit, but incredibly unlikely.

We know mold is probably scum.

We know that Roden claimed molded.

Roden has seemed town by play the entire game.

And Roden's interactions with flipped scum (as well as their interactions with Roden) strongly indicate Roden to be town.

The only way Roden could be scum is if Roden fakeclaimed the mold to be set up as a deepwolf via crossbussing shenanigans and Roden's scumgame is much better than I have given credit for.

But even if Roden

was

scum, who would it be with?

Not you; you're town.
Not Bears; Bears is town.
Not me; I am town.

The options would be Roden/Cephrir or Roden/tictac--and I don't see any world where we eliminate Roden first, there; it should always be whichever of Cephrir/tictac you most strongly believe is the best player to eliminate. Especially given that if Roden is in fact town as I believe, then the scumteam would just be Ceph/tictac.

[The Three Bears]

Mastina show me a world in which town can win here.

-Pinkie.

[Cephrir]

harebrained theory:

tet claimed to be roleblocked. as far as i'm aware, we have seen no further evidence a roleblocker exists.

tet targeted bears early on, while they were moldy.

what if the effect of mold is "players who target moldy targets are roleblocked the following night" ? is there anything that disproves this?

[Cephrir]

i'm starting to think galron has just stopped playing.

[Cephrir]

i didn't go into this with an agenda and intending to produce a case, moreso just to do some research with an open mind as part of my goal to figure out who is town in tictac/mastina/norwe, but i mostly came up with negatives so i guess it ended up looking a little case-y. still, if ur wondering why i bothered to post positives it's because i'm not cherry picking to arrive at a particular conclusion.

Proxy my vote to: Lady Lambdadelta

I'll vote whoever LLD does (even if it's me).

Peace offering: I promise never to vote LLD prior to D5-at-earliest (barring guilties on her). I reserve right to state suspicion, but promise not to act on it, and the proxy vote is proof of commitment to this promise.

u guys got beef?

i'm ascetic.

this would be a surprising first post from a slot that is scum with mastina (which has been my leading theory). it seems to be aimed at creating drama & inviting LLD to do her anti-mastina spiel.

greet: i don't hate the T3 vote
ceph vs roden: revisionist history just people being people, but standand fare 4 what folks think are "smoking guns" on day 1.
irceher: dunno. did ping early on, but could be playstyle and now gone quiet.
std: looks town -> is scum. sad bell went back on this. i don't think town std is this opinionated. lean read cause the reason is a bit silly.

makes pretty insubstantial & flimsy excuses for ircher while offering real analysis of other stuff.

i don't buy that std believes the populist crap he's pushing. he is the kind of player who does not make reads easily because "is this AI" is a consideration. all i'm reading from him is "is this a thing i can push and people will agree". like looking 4 logical inconsisteency. many folks i'd buy this approach as honest, from std, no.
VOTE: STD
#hereisurthunder.

add galron to my scumlist also 4 the line of questioning that starts w 884. like what else is emotion-read based off on than tone ever? predestined ending to the line and it went nowheree. classic fake curiosity.

too much consensus on irch
too much consensus on arcane

this post is the only instance i could really find of tictac making any serious push in the entire game. it also offers excuses for scum, and part of that ("too much consensus on arcade") i don't think was even fair at the time, but i will admit i have not rigorously fact checked this. i'll also take this opportunity to point out my observation that the only time tictac has voted for scum was after dunnstral effectively claimed scum. i don't think it's possible he has voted for any alive scum either - i don't think he has voted for any currently living player at any point, despite his longstanding concerns about mastina

too much consensus on irch

Then what is your explanation for him not being dead yet?

folks don't die from mean looks.
could be wrong on my read on thread temp, but don't currently think so

i might want to give town points for this post? it's hard, albeit possible, to come off this chill and whatever about a partner's wagon imo

opposed to gendel yeet 4 what it's worth

this post has no chance of stopping the grendel yeet -- why not make a real push back if this is where your head is?

yea, still don't think day 1 is shaped like this w ircher-scum

VOTE: andante
this is okay as far as compromise goes tho. lets see if it has legs.

i am beginning to think it's strange that we haven't killed this slot yet. i would have liked to see some backup for this thought, because without that i just see doubtcasting

RB existence in 20p game p much a given imo.
why not just kill town irch here tho?
p sure he wasn't the nk target cause then they don't use a block on him. (unless catboy suicidal!scum or jailed block on town!irch existed both super unlikely)
still don't really scumread him outside of the claims stuff, and also not inclined to go 4 info-yeet. dunno.

bears-stuff: having a role reason to ask 4 info is pretty standard and i'd be inclined to cooperate w such. generally best practice to let folks play their own prs like they will and if later on turns out the reasoning was insufficient that is an issue for then.

pedit: wot norw: u finnish? i thought u were from norway or some such.

for someone detached from the game, tictac sure has time to defend ircher

good thing about being ascetic is i'm always the yeet at some point down the line, so might as well argue when people try to do dumb fast-yeets.
not a mold. i do have a theory tho. have u given up on getting claims?

okay, but where has this supposed aruing against fast yeets happened? one post weakly objecting to the grendel elim does not count. also, the rest of this iso isn't consistent with the opinion that ascetics should always die -- i think it's mentioned in other places, but i don't really see that reflected in the play. what i would expect is hard pushing reads. fwiw, i don't agree that ascetics should always die, but that isn't really the point.

ur optimism about the general reads of this town never ceases to amaze me.

the reason this post might be significant is that it's on day 2. at this point, a) ircher is clearly being at least run up today, so it's effectively anti-that elim, and b) we don't have enough flips yet to be able to say whether town has accurate reads this game, so how would anyone know that?

actually flavorclaiming might be a thing that matters.
i'm benicoff tv.

i don't think you've ever explained the flavor reason for this being an ascetic. would you care to? also did toog ever weigh in on this?

i dunno what does help town here tho.
i'd argue more if i disagreed more.
@bell

Do you not see anything odd that you have nothing better to say than, “ I wish people would stop misspelling my name, “I’m not sure about this guys” on world and obvious emotional nonchalance?

s odd that noone seriously pushed 4 my lim when ircher was on the block, but std already posted about there likely being bussing going on w that wagon. As for looking town, i'm not actually convinced that getting rid of the neg-util isn't the smart move here.

i guess the idea here is that being an ascetic is supposed to excuse not scumhunting? that doesn't really make sense to me. if you think you're going to be a required elim by endgame, shouldn't you be trying to have MORE impact on town's decisions now, with no fear of being NKed if you're right?

the 2 major day1 pushes (ircher & mariar) were not both on scum.
that's not a thing that happens.

this speaks for itself

my solve 4 today is galron.

this doesn't come with any reason. i think by this point if scum tictac is no longer trying to survive the game and might just be lazily happy to vote whatever townie. i think town with seemingly numbered days at this point should be pushing their scumread (mastina)

o come on now. we don't have 2 neighborizers. catboy is the vig hiding behind tissue paper.
this doesn't have to be rocket science, let's just yeet someting and let him shoot.

im hardly the first to say so, but there is 0 town motivation for this post

hokay. was waiting 4 massclaim to finish, but i guess i should go into why.

I'm Casper Darling. I am a 2-shot Hedron Resonance Amplifier Researcher. Non-lethal hostile actions used against me or a person whom I target to give one of my shots to, will consume a charge, and that action will not succeed. My assumption is that it is an anti-blocker power, but I think it pretty much works on any hostile action that isn't lethal. I gave one to LLD on Night 1, and my other charge I was holding was consumed last night. The shot lasts until it is consumed. I was trying to feign power early by dropping Jesse Faden quotes to draw scum actions against me, and figured holding a charge would let me know if it ever worked. I didn't really know who else to use it on since there weren't many open claims on the table.

so implication is u getting molded and it not working?
thing is i don't think inventor-types get to use their own shots usually.
also a shot being consumed not something i'd expect u to be informed about if u have this role. i mean presumably lld would not have been informed if targeted?
also consumes a shot if u target someone else, whether or not it does anything or not, AND consumes a charge on u ONLY when it does something? seems asymmetrical.
looked at control wiki a bit and i do think HRAs would be a thing and nobody else claiming anything related to that so the flavor works v well, but mech is wonky. safeclaims would be chosen by cakes so don't think u being a flavor-person is super relevant.

if anyone has counterexamples of the mech-points (games where similar role worked as toog describes) hearing about those would be good.

so yeah i wanna finish the massclaims to see if there's an alt explanation 4 the missing mold, and get an idea of the balance of the game before committing to yeeting, but u could be fakeclaiming.

it's curious to me that talking about the mold is something that can draw tictac's attention back to the game when he's been pretty checked out.

In that game, by the time I subbed in, there were three wagons on scum and none were on town. My team begged me to bus to try and go deep.

On Day 1, the two major wagons that didn't go through were on Ircher and Dunn.

~Mama

yeah. i was hoping 4 insight into how such a situation comes about in the first place.
just a case of townies having supernatural reads or did the scumteam go hard-in into crossbussing at get-go and succeed too well or what.
if there was an explanation maybe something similar happened here.

pro: this is a brave post to make as scum
con: the reason it would be brave is that it kinda reads as salty about the team being caught for the wrong reasons. kinda makes me think that if it does flip scum, we're kinda on the right track and scum think they are going to lose.

also, curious where the idea about scum cross-bussing comes from. like who specifically is doing this and why is that a leading theory? because ircher/dunn didn't really bus each other much.

so scumz declined the mystery-box of super-duper-PRness and went for the fruitvendor?
wanna fininish massclaims now, or just yeet bears?

this is the first time i've seen suspicion of bears from the slot. so it's a little odd to me that we jumped straight to yeet it. particularly when:

i'm like 80% on mastina being scum.

we are allegedly still very suspicious of mastina, so why suggest yeeting bears instead, and why not vote either of them? feels to me like testing the water on bears.

liked mastina being pissed that i stole her rightful place on scum-andante wagon, but then she updated not at all on town-andante
don't really have much super constructive to say rn, i'll let things mull over.

mastina being essentially your only expressed suspect, i want this thought to evolve further. like. who is scum then? if still mastina, who is her partner? show me some urgency on solving the game in this obviously bad situation we are in.

incidentally, i think anyone who didn't show much urgency or try hard to push their reads yesterday showed scum signs. since town didn't know it wasn't the final day, and i for one start feeling a lot of pressure to get it right when the game is nearly over. maybe less weight behind this point for anyone who has expressed feeling demotivated though, i do recognize not everyone thinks the way i do

=====

so if this is scum, who is it partnered with?

-mastina has been a regular target, insofar as tictac has ever pushed any reads at all, but has never gotten a vote. i see some associatives and some antiassociatives here, not 100% sure what wins.
-norwe, meanwhile, has been pretty much completely absent from the whole iso. that could easily be a partner too, so in the end i don't have a conclusion here yet, at least from this alone.

[Cephrir]

im not gonna iso mastina. there are only so many ways to say "her reads have not changed in response to game events in any way at any point", "she somehow finds her way onto the town wagon du jour every time" and "this is a disingenuous attack on me" and she doesn't actually post analyzable content so i don't see the point. might do norwe later, or maybe just "norwe since the last time i isoed him" since iirc i already did that a few days ago

[Cephrir]

-norwe, meanwhile, has been pretty much completely absent from the whole iso. that could easily be a partner too, so in the end i don't have a conclusion here yet, at least from this alone.

appending to this i think it would be fair to call norwe the most ignored slot in the entire game by basically everyone. im not sure this is meaningful, but there's no partner for him that i would rule out on associatives flowing in a x -> norwe direction, basically

[Cephrir]

it doesn't look like toog ever commented on the ascetic claim from a flavor standpoint. i did find these points basiucally arguing some of what i just said tho.

You'd think an ascetic player would go out of their way to look more town considering they can't be cleared by other means.

I wonder why we would have an ascetic and a hated asceticizer. If they're both real, that is

Maybe it's because of the mold

TBF, I haven't like tictac's claim because they aren't being a thorn in scum's side, and now they have all the rest of waffling over their slot with nothing to do about it but play chicken with it.

[Cephrir]

harebrained theory:

tet claimed to be roleblocked. as far as i'm aware, we have seen no further evidence a roleblocker exists.

tet targeted bears early on, while they were moldy.

what if the effect of mold is "players who target moldy targets are roleblocked the following night" ? is there anything that disproves this?

the more i think about this, the more likely i think it is

im not saying we should stop being paranoid about losing to the mold, i still think that might happen, but i think it's a plausible alternative explanation.

[mastina]

Mastina show me a world in which town can win here.

Easy; eliminating two scum in a row. Ideally mold-source-scum first.

It's really not that hard. You just need to eliminate the scum.

I am aware Ceph just cased tictac as scum. I'm ambivalent about whether it's genuinely not scum-scum or if it's scum distancing, but I actually think that no matter what, tictac is the right elimination here. The only world where tictac isn't scum is if it's Cephrir + Roden, but I seem to recall midgame interactions that very strongly suggest that wouldn't be the case.

I can go back to verify these on Thursday to be sure, but I just think that tictac's the best elimination here by far.

[mastina]

Basically.

Bears is never scum here. I've said this for the whole game, and there's a plethora of evidence to support this. The modslip that townspewed them; that they were molded; that this is all three heads' towngames by a landslide; by them being heavily against Ircher; by them hard-hard-HARD pushing Dunnstral; by their hydra's hydraness being on display with clear times where they lacked synergy and then needed to talk it out to create synergy.

Norwee is never scum here. He's been on the same exact wavelength as me the entire game in a way that scum cannot orchestrate. There's no way that he can think the same things I do, before I actually think them. He's playing to his town meta and he's basically just radiating town energy, an aura that I can just

see

. I am sticking to my soulread there because that soulread is never wrong.

I am town.

With 6 alive and the above 3 as town, that means 2/3 of the following are scum:
{Cephrir, Roden, tictac}.
Whoever you call town in there, you must call the other two scum.

I've had Roden as town due to Roden playing as I would expect Roden to play as town combined with Roden's interactions with scum combined with Roden's claim of being molded combined with Roden's flavor being a very important character (altho I admit it's a bit strange that Polaris is a VT; I honestly thought Polaris was the vig enabler because flavorwise it makes a whole lot more sense for Polaris to enable the vig than it does for her brother to enable the vig because Polaris is kinda sorta merged with Jesse? Kinda sorta empowers Jesse? It's a bit hard to explain, but Polaris is bonded with Jesse, is her biggest ally, is the source that allows for fighting against The Hiss, so I thought Roden was the enabler until Roden claimed VT).
But I admit that, this being mylo, I do in fact need to give Roden a more thorough look to see if the townread holds or if the above are weaker than I thought or if the above are outweighed by the reasons for Roden to be scum.

Basically, if I were to trust my game-long reads it'd be {Cephrir, tictac}.
If I were wrong on Cephrir/Roden, it'd be {Roden, tictac}.

But I genuinely don't see the world where tictac is ever town here. Yes, I will need to look into Ceph-Roden interactions to see if they're scum-scum, but while there's reasons for Ceph to be town and there's reasons for Roden to be town, there...really isn't any reason for tictac to be town.

At all.

[NorwegianboyEE]

My vote is basically on Tictac btw.

[NorwegianboyEE]

In case it wasn’t clear.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Actually ima just put the money where my mouth is.
I 100% agree with the opinion that Tictac has to be scum here.
I know there has been townflips earlier but Galron did indeed fake claim when he shouldn’t have, and Andante i feel would have been the lim today on an Tictac!scumflip anyways.
So my reads are not really proven to have been wrong based on those flips. It’s just unlucky distractions imo. So i don’t see the need to re-evaluate away from Tictac!scum. So i say, kill Tictac today. Find the partner tommorow.
VOTE: Tictac

[SirCakez]

bump

[SirCakez]

bump