Mini Normal 2268 Game Over

[humaneatingmonkey]

Meuh, what's your read on Koba and Gamma?

[DkKoba]

Koba, do you think Gamma is town?

Yes

[humaneatingmonkey]

can you drive me to that conclusion as well? i personally think i'm not seeing the confident scumhunting Gamma that I usually see in D1, and there wasn't any effort to sort my slot (which he usually starts with). also think that E-1 was blatantly anti-town.

[Meuh]

Just a bunch of Gamma posts

Spoiler:

lolwut
I actually think you're town here koba???

I just get a vibe that's similar to his play in the white flag game where he was scum (the one cyrus62 modded)
I'll say your specific thought process does feel distinctly towny, HEM

outside the traitor claim thing, the biggest thing that sticks out to me is dwlee justifying their rvs vote, it feels overwrought, so even outside the hood deal I have dwlee as leanscum

Do you think scum!Dwlee panics around town!Koba like that though? It would be a stark contrast to how SCP went.

maybe
we were all scum in a normal at one point

I'm in a bit of a weird mood rn, I'll explain later
nk15 feels actually like he's trying to contribute, scum!nk15 I would expect to feel less like that
marci I think is just vibing town rn
I dunno about pocketing but I don't entirely grasp what GL's trying to say rn

also i think roden/gl are a potential s/s pair

Maybe
Something about the way Roden came in against the GL wagon feels rather sus
Actually, I think I have a good idea of what alarm bells are being rung here

also i think roden/gl are a potential s/s pair

Maybe
Something about the way Roden came in against the GL wagon feels rather sus
Actually, I think I have a good idea of what alarm bells are being rung here

oh and gamma remembers exactly the way I scumread roden in SCP upick

Maybe? I’m kinda working with my own set of sparknotes for reading Roden
Speaking of which
VOTE: roden
Just on tone he feels kinda scummy, I don’t think this is 100% success rate but it has been decent iirc

So are just repeating Open 835 again or are you just scum

el em ay oh
This is not a town response.

I'm 100% confident Roden doesn't "swoop in" to defend me like that as scum, there wouldn't be a need to

actually why tho

because I'm town and at E-1, what on earth does scum Roden gain from pushing so hard against the wagon that he attracts attention/votes instead? I'm useful to keep around scum should want me gone

I get that it will look different to someone who doesn't know my alignment but I give exactly 0% chance Roden had any scum agenda to what he posted. The better question is why do you think it's a scum-indicative action?

I think it's scum indicative

how

he went about defending you. It felt like he had too much skin in the game there. The only feasible explanation I could see for town!Roden to have felt that way would be if he had a tangible townread on you before the E-1.

VOTE: Gamma

The L-1 vote with no conviction even though he's mentioned GL as a suspect reads bad, like he knows GL will flip town and is already trying to pivot. It coming right after GL's post that my vote is +town for bravery is a funny juxtaposition. Have to go, will be back on later tonight.

I only really voted there in order to progress the game, with the expectation being that I would cause some reactions from folks were weren't okay with a hammer happening. I do feel like GL's reaction is at least okay rn. Meuh I'm a little interested in her reaction but Roden's was definitely the one that pinged me immediately.

Also, I'll back the statement that Koba has a good read rate on chaos

I made no posts between these two. Koba just made a joke about not listening to other people at all when I asked them to consider they could be wrong :^)

Do you mind giving me your current reads of the players (town/scum/null)?

@tictac: Do you mind giving me your thoughts on my other post to you, re: Meuh?

HEM/Gamma scum

NK/Marci/Koba one scum

your reads are trash

My brain has been churning and I think I am at the point where I agree with Roden’s idea that the game being stagnant when it was indicates GL is town. That doesn’t really alleviate my feelings on Roden tho, it just affects how I see GL

Like I myself binned GL for now and was only pressuring them bc of the reasons you stated there, but I have nowhere seen anything that makes me feel I should townread them here.

this is a bit of a mood
it's rlly great when two read sources give v contrary ideas of a person's alignment. gamestate suggests GL is town but on vibes he's scummy

that tracks
you just feel a bit like you were in the white flag game (I mentioned this earlier but I wanna mention it to you directly, see your input)

okay that actually makes a ton of sense to why I thought this was similar

These all lean towards town to me to varying extents, the E-1 was anti-town but not something I can’t imagine town doing
Gamma’s read progression actually feels realistic and some of the confidence in her posts I think comes from townies more often; “your reads are trash” and stuff like that

[Meuh]

So yeah I actually lean town on Gamma a bit

[humaneatingmonkey]

Meuh im gonna be honest with you i think you're town

[humaneatingmonkey]

God if you’re scum you’re playing well, if you’re town you really need to work on avoiding conf-bias

do you think koba is scum here?

[humaneatingmonkey]

[3] Meuh: marcistar, GuiltyLion, DkKoba

this is your wagon. are these all town?

[NorwegianboyEE]

[3] ChaosOmega: tictac, Meuh, ShadowGirl
[3] Meuh: marcistar, GuiltyLion, DkKoba
[2] humaneatingmonkey: Dwlee99, Roden
[2] Roden: Gamma Emerald, humaneatingmonkey
[1] Gamma Emerald: ChaosOmega
[1] GuiltyLion: Not Known 15

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are needed for an elimination.

D1: deadline: (expired on 2022-03-29 21:32:48)

[Gamma Emerald]

@Gamma:

Can we get an updated town/null/scum reads list?

Town: GL, Koba, NK15, marci, tictac
Null: HEM, ChaosOmega, Meuh, ShadowGirl
Scum: Dwlee, Roden

[humaneatingmonkey]

why do you scumread dwlee gamma

[Meuh]

God if you’re scum you’re playing well, if you’re town you really need to work on avoiding conf-bias

do you think koba is scum here?

I honestly don’t really know
A lot of the things that have stuck out to me about Koba’s gameplay comes down more to their approach to the game and their play style, but I haven’t really taken a step back to think “okay, but are these things scummy or not?”
They don’t particularly come off as disingenuous and would be the kind of player I’d be fine with just assuming is town for D1 and then scrutinizing later most of the time. Usually I do this with a town leaderesque player who seems solvey early on. (I think I also mentioned this in Trust Fall)
Thing is, I think they have some wrong takes and have made bad decisions and that makes that assumption worse to make and the slot more nebulous.
Either way I don’t really see the benefit of limming Dk until later in the game, I don’t see how it’s particularly beneficial unless there’s a strong reason to believe they’re scum, which there isn’t.

[Gamma Emerald]

im confident that Koba, Meuh, Dwlee99, marci. townvibes from tictac but there really isn't anything strongly townie about them. i like NK15, but i dont know if the mindmeld is organic or they're trying to pocket me.

Gamma deserves a wagon just for putting GL in E-1.
Roden deserves a wagon just for their activity around GL's slot, how they're responding to Koba's pressure. Also, after voting me in #240 — there was no push in him to build a wagon on me. I wonder why, especially since the read and the vote stuck around for 20+ pages.

I want to know who's against both wagons.

ok nvm this is prolly scum
these are bad surface-level takes

[humaneatingmonkey]

why do you think chaosomega is scum? that's where your vote is right now.

[Gamma Emerald]

okay thanks for this post because i took a closer look

Whats the difference between roden and meuh that makes you think that the meuh defense came from town and the roden defense from scum?

first, my impression was meuh had townread GL all along. i also thought her explanation for gamestates differentiates her from Roden's angle (which was GL was obvtown). but i wasn't sure enough, so so i looked. but to my surprise, that's not the case. she was scumreading him.

so im going to consider this.

I think there’s a pretty significant difference between Roden & I’s approaches to the whole defence counter push anti-wagon criticism movement or whatever you wanna call it

My read on GL was like, slight scum lean at first, but the stagnant game state irked me and made me reconsider

Also my push against the GL wagon wasn’t primarily motivated by my read on him, it was mostly because:
-I wanted to fight against him being put on E-1, which I thought and still think was an anti-town move from both Gamma and Dk. I tend to feel pretty strongly about some mechanical play and that’s an instance that I felt strongly about
-I don’t feel strongly about GL (or most people, really)’s alignment, like I said I haven’t gotten into this game that much, but I wanted to contribute. That was one of the best ways to actually help out with the game despite my lack of strong feelings. Poof, I gave people more material to read me off of and I helped motivate some more discussion, overall I’m happy with it
-I especially wanted Dk to shake up their reads instead of being overconfident about GL’s alignment, because I think they were tunneling and confbiasing pretty hard, which isn’t really productive. (and also frustrated me lol) That’s why most of the posts I initially made about the GL wagon are directed at Dk.
They changed up their vote which is cool although their reads haven’t seemed to have gotten better from where their vote is placed now but that’s okay

If you look at the posts I made the evening E-1 was placed, you’ll see that I don’t actually take any stance about GL’s alignment, because I don’t really have one to make. It’s mostly me being critical of the points Dk was making.
523 is the most I discuss my stance about GL’s alignment at that point and it’s vague and made to make Dk reflect, only saying I think it’s “fairly likely” for a scenario where GL’s town to be true

That’s why I felt less and was less committal, I didn’t and still don’t feel that strongly about GL’s alignment. Because of that, my motivation towards pushing against the wagon wasn’t motivated as strongly or in the same way Roden’s was

ngl your thought process seems somewhat abrupt but I think there's a nuance to it

[Gamma Emerald]

why do you scumread dwlee gamma

I haven't seen anything to go against the point that they reacted poorly to Koba's traitor claim

[humaneatingmonkey]

I haven't seen anything to go against the point that they reacted poorly to Koba's traitor claim

dwlee is very good at image management. i dont buy that as scum, he blunders immediately in koba's hood when koba jokes about being traitor and here when he immediately picks a fight with Koba, Testarossa and you.

you in this case was GL.

[Gamma Emerald]

no one answered who would quickhammer a player as town in this playerlist

so this discussion is just a distraction and meant to avoid critical thinking about the action itself

the thing is that was not exactly a point I myself had considered. Instead, I figured if someone did quickhammer they were making a pretty substantial misplay no matter what, plus I had about a 40% expectation that someone would unvote in response to my vote, which would be a talking point.
Also, it's irrelevant since I was the E-1 vote, but depending on my mood I would potentially quickhammer as town.

[Not Known 15]

no one answered who would quickhammer a player as town in this playerlist

Me...
Can't answer about anyone else though, and I was already on that wagon.

[Gamma Emerald]

I haven't seen anything to go against the point that they reacted poorly to Koba's traitor claim

dwlee is very good at image management. i dont buy that as scum, he blunders immediately in koba's hood when koba jokes about being traitor and here when he immediately picks a fight with Koba, Testarossa and you.

you in this case was GL.

maybe you have a point?
how would you expect scum!Dwlee to respond to a traitor claim in a hood?

[humaneatingmonkey]

use it immediately against Koba and attract townreads from the protown activity of scumhunting.

[Gamma Emerald]

Meuh im gonna be honest with you i think you're town

I'm feeling this way too

[Gamma Emerald]

use it immediately against Koba and attract townreads from the protown activity of scumhunting.

that tracks

[Not Known 15]

Why do you think that putting gl at e-1 was mechanically bad?

Here are the benefits each alignment gets from it:

Town (if town!GL):
-Discussion is slightly fuelled (can also be done in many less risky ways)

Town (if scum!GL):
-Discussion fuelled
-If GL gets hammered, that’s scum down (but we could always yknow, just do that later; so we aren’t missing out on much by not putting GL on E-1 at the time it happened)

Mafia (if town!GL)
-If the day concludes early, town’s progressed less far in their reads, giving mafia a bit of a headstart
-If a townie’s prone to take the opportunity and hammer GL, mafia can reasonably get that player limmed the following day, poof that’s F8 made with the mafia team intact
-The potential halt to town’s reads from an early flip is amplified by the fact that GL’s one of the most vocal players, mafia would benefit strongly to have him out of the picture
-E-1 existing gives scum an opportunity to try a chaotic play (especially scary considering the setup’s closed)

Mafia (if scum!GL)
-Day could end early
-Scum have wiggle room to try a play
-Bussing potential

Ultimately there’s no major benefits for town to put people on E-1. For scum however, although there’s a good chance they don’t do anything (hammering would be risky), we’re still providing the mafia team for an opportunity to try out a play, or for a townie to hammer and end up helping out scum.
It’s giving ammo to the scum team, even if we don’t think it’s likely they use that ammo

You say discussion slightly fuelled if gl town and discussion fuelled if gl scum. But the actual result is discussion fuelled, not just slightly. That would be a reason for a scumread, so...

[Meuh]

why do you think chaosomega is scum? that's where your vote is right now.

Meuh

VOTE: chaos
Better spot for my vote than still randomly on tictac

Why the vote on Chaos, again, because Gamma was E-1?

I voted on Chaos because:
-I realized my vote was still on tictac and that’s not a place where I wanted it
-I feel pretty null about Chaos so I don’t mind voting for them
-I think tictac’s town so I wanted to amplify their thoughts
-The point made about Chaos’s entrance seemed fair to me (even though it also applies to me )
-It puts pressure on a less vocal slot

Gamma is someone I do want to look into some more, although iirc some of their posts earlier on actually seemed townie to me, so I’m not interested in voting for them before looking into them

Also just POE, there’s some slots who to me look slightly more likely to be town than Chaos which pushes them to the bottom of my reads
I don’t really outright scumread anyone on their own merit, most players seem neut or slight town so POE helps
HEM, Dwlee and NK15 are definitely slots I should reread to get a better grasp on though, don’t have a good read on them. Considering the vibe I get from the other players I wouldn’t be surprised to find scum there