Newbie 2093 | New Wave | Postgame

[TTTT]

I'd like to hear out TTTT's response to 242 though.

which part?
I don't like the quick change from TRing me to voting me
but the admission that it's OMGUS looks honest

[catboi]

Vote Count 1.05

ItalianoVD (2):

BigTerp, Takemikazuchi02

CornPuffBuddha (2):

abdbla, TTTT

abdbla (1):

furtiveglance

Asphodelus (1):

Val89

Takemikazuchi02 (1):

ItalianoVD

TTTT (1):

Asphodelus

Not Voting (1):

CornPuffBuddha

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is April 24 at 6:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-04-24 18:00:00)

[TTTT]

I don't find TTTT Town-Leaning since a lot of their points are reaches

this point about my points being reachy is decent
but why didn't you think this until

after

I got feisty with you?

[TTTT]

Furtive
I need more from you buddy

[BigTerp]

On that subject, Italiano mindset in general feels very iffy to me. His early posting definitely gave me the vibe of a (perhaps overly) confident mafia player with a lot of experience, that arrogance and ego shining through. His recent posts have dialied this back pretty heavily, though, and it really just reads like scum changing tacks when the previous tactic didn't go over so well.

The shift in tone after post 180 is

drastic

.

Very interesting point here, and I have to agree. It actually happened between being taken to E-1 and you removing your vote to take it back to E-2 (if I'm reading the voting progression correctly). Could very well be mafia feeling like they overreached with their play and had to dial things back.

I've got the vote count at....

Italiano - 2
abdbla - 1
CornPuff - 2
Take - 1
TTTT - 1

W/CornPuff the only one not voting.

I'm comfortable with my vote on Italiano. Would like to see a second wagon to hopefully generate more and better discussion, but am not against getting Italiano back up to E-2 or even E-1 to see what might shake out.

[TTTT]

yeah I like both abdbla and BigTerp for town

[CornPuffBuddha]

@abdbla

244

First line is meh but whatever.

[Referring to my 239

"
The way you phrased this makes it seem like you think its a towntell in your opinion. Is that what you think? If it is, why did you hedge yourself like this? If you don't think it is a towntell, again, why hedge that it might be by phrasing it like this?"

- I don't think I understand what you mean. I specifically added that caveat to make it explicit that I don't necessarily think TTTT making a bad read and T02 being in the clear in this specific instance doesn't mean they can't be scum. That sentence hurt to write. Sorry. Tell me if you need additional clarification there's probably a more lucid way to say that.

"I don't think I agree with this interpretation, or the interpretation of Italiano at large. I find T02 to be acting fairly similar to how he was later in the game, with the differences being accounted for by a boost of confidence from correct scumreads (though I don't agree how he got there) and the fact that Italiano's arguing is often iffy at best."

- I guess we just disagree here. I agree that Italiano's arguing has been suspect, but reading back through 2091, even when I was pushing hard to get him miselimmed, T02 did not get as consistently

toxic

as he has been so far in this thread. Confidence being boosted by his correct scum reads is something of an explanation but I don't buy that it accounts for his entire, very noticeable change in demeanor here. He was literally saying shit like "it's only a game, nobody has to be mad" later in 2091. There's definitely something else going on, but the thing is I'm not sure what it is yet.

"I'm largely in agreement with val on the post, Asph tended to have game commentary as well as the pigeon thing going, it wasn't just meaningless/tangential topics that half the playerlist didn't care about."

- Back in 2091 Aspho also caught some initial heat for similar things they are here though, to be fair. I think it's possible town!Aspho needs some time to spin their wheels, and their most recent post has been significantly more substantive anyways.

By the way for anyone interested TTTT was scum in Newbie 2088. So if anyone wants to try to get some metareads with me there you go.

[CornPuffBuddha]

I'd like to hear out TTTT's response to 242 though.

which part?
I don't like the quick change from TRing me to voting me
but the admission that it's OMGUS looks honest

Eh you pretty much covered what I wanted to see covered in 247 and 252.

[CornPuffBuddha]

And 250 too.

[BigTerp]

In response to my own post 254 Asphodelus quietly took Italiano back down to E-3 with a OMGUS vote on TTTT here 214. To be fair, Asphodelus initial vote on Italiano was a RVS vote. But something to note considering the change in posting style/attitude from Italiano quickly followed by them getting back to below E-2 when they found themselves at E-1 all of a sudden. I find CornPuff's unvote here 167 much more town like. Especially considering they took Italiano to E-2 themselves here 92.

With all of that said, I think putting the heat back to Italiano gets us the most information in our current game state.

[BigTerp]

Vote Count 1.05

ItalianoVD (2):

BigTerp, Takemikazuchi02

CornPuffBuddha (2):

abdbla, TTTT

abdbla (1):

furtiveglance

Asphodelus (1):

Val89

Takemikazuchi02 (1):

ItalianoVD

TTTT (1):

Asphodelus

Not Voting (1):

CornPuffBuddha

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is April 24 at 6:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-04-24 18:00:00)

Sorry, I missed this before I went back to tally votes. I hope me doing that and posting it wasn't some sort of violation or anything. Didn't think of that until just now. Apologizes if so!!

[Asphodelus]

@Asph
plz see below
thanks

200
It comes down to the fact you both are arguing at each other with no real end goal in mind. The very fact you both seem like you have no idea what you're doing besides flinging shit at each other makes me think you're both town.

yeah that's gonna need more explanation

I'd still like more explanation of the TRs on me and T02 for "flinging shit at each other"
which you defined as "bickering" in 197 when I asked about it

No. That is all.

[abdbla]

I'm not sure how I missed this post when responding previously, but I guess I did. Whoops.

No, I definitely don't think TTTT is town leaning, but more importantly to me, they're just annoying. Between 205 and 213, it just gives me the entire vibe of 'i have played more therefor i know more than you'. Quite frankly, I'm not actually enjoying playing with them as much as I enjoyed the previous group of players. Or, to confirm BigTerp's, it's definitely a OMGUS vote. The mistake thats being made here as well is thinking that interrogation and activity is the same as indicating town; but you've played with GoodMorning -- neither posting 5 one line sentences, one massive paragraph, or anything akin to it is AI. Poking at people over a frikkin fallacy and then getting mad at them for calling you out is literal 'well, i was only pretending to be bad!'

nevermind, I guess I will comment on this again, but the fallacy you're saying it is just isn't very applicable.
In any case, I think activity is AI. Engagement, as an example, is certainly somewhat affected by how unique your role is, and I don't think it's controversial to claim engagement affects activity.
I responded to this last game too, but in case it wasn't clear, activity =/= postcount.

Going back to post 230 and 231 -- the entire point of that 'information without telling' was to state the grounds of what I believe. The entire Train on T02 is started from a faulty premise, based on inappropiate statistical analysis and confusion on what a meta was. The

entire

point of it was to say I dislike the entire shit-flinging contest that was going on.

The issue I'm having is this is basically the same thing that happened in the last game under the guise of expertise over statistical analysis. Italiano's entire gimmick is saying pointed and accusatory things to see their reactions, then judge them from a sample set of one game and draw a completely different conclusion. TTTT's is much the same, except there's a pointed approach to T02 for some reason.

I'm worried I misread the actual point of your re-entrance. I was fairly certain that the meta talk and fallacy stuff in post 194 was revolving around the discussion on the greetings. Am I wrong?

T02 isn't stupid, just inexperienced, and seeing from previous games, tends to write what he means. The entire thing coming on from 'why put Ash on e-2' is predicated on the fact the entire move was stupid and pretty obvious from anyone who was reading. It served no real purpose, except, as this thread is showing 'well the fact you called it stupid means we got the result we wanted!'. It's almost like

Spoiler: Bait

and then everyone saying 'he recognized its bait, therefore it worked!'.

Not relevant to the point in general, but I dislike the images. They make it hard to read the post.

You're either accepting the fact that Italiano, with his weird 'i have solved the game in turn 1 but now we must slow post and wait' (which I think he just has his head up his own ass) is being town indicative for being _active_, or 'null-scum' for being vague, but at the same flip of the coin, you can't actually say that posting many lines of just stupid, fallacious ideas that are obvious to people with half a brain is AI.

I actually have no clue what you're trying to say here. Are you saying that Italiano's main arguments aren't AI because they're dumb?

I don't find TTTT Town-Leaning since a lot of their points are reaches. And more importantly, if there was an elim for tonight, I'd want it to be them.

I don't want to misrepresent your argument, but do you want to eliminate them because you think they're scum, or because they're not useful for town and you just dislike them?


P-edit:

[Referring to my 239]

"The way you phrased this makes it seem like you think its a towntell in your opinion. Is that what you think? If it is, why did you hedge yourself like this? If you don't think it is a towntell, again, why hedge that it might be by phrasing it like this?"

- I don't think I understand what you mean. I specifically added that caveat to make it explicit that I don't necessarily think TTTT making a bad read and T02 being in the clear in this specific instance doesn't mean they can't be scum. That sentence hurt to write. Sorry. Tell me if you need additional clarification there's probably a more lucid way to say that.

Okay, so you're saying that it just isn't a tell?

[CornPuffBuddha]

I don't think 60 was a slip. But I also don't think that necessarily gives T02 towncred, atleast not enough for me to have a strong TR on him. That's basically my position. It was just a dumb thing to fixate on in general. Maybe it'll become more useful as a tell as the game progresses and we get more information.

[BigTerp]

@abdbla

244

First line is meh but whatever.

[Referring to my 239

"
The way you phrased this makes it seem like you think its a towntell in your opinion. Is that what you think? If it is, why did you hedge yourself like this? If you don't think it is a towntell, again, why hedge that it might be by phrasing it like this?"

- I don't think I understand what you mean. I specifically added that caveat to make it explicit that I don't necessarily think TTTT making a bad read and T02 being in the clear in this specific instance doesn't mean they can't be scum. That sentence hurt to write. Sorry. Tell me if you need additional clarification there's probably a more lucid way to say that.

"I don't think I agree with this interpretation, or the interpretation of Italiano at large. I find T02 to be acting fairly similar to how he was later in the game, with the differences being accounted for by a boost of confidence from correct scumreads (though I don't agree how he got there) and the fact that Italiano's arguing is often iffy at best."

- I guess we just disagree here. I agree that Italiano's arguing has been suspect, but reading back through 2091, even when I was pushing hard to get him miselimmed, T02 did not get as consistently

toxic

as he has been so far in this thread. Confidence being boosted by his correct scum reads is something of an explanation but I don't buy that it accounts for his entire, very noticeable change in demeanor here. He was literally saying shit like "it's only a game, nobody has to be mad" later in 2091. There's definitely something else going on, but the thing is I'm not sure what it is yet.

"I'm largely in agreement with val on the post, Asph tended to have game commentary as well as the pigeon thing going, it wasn't just meaningless/tangential topics that half the playerlist didn't care about."

- Back in 2091 Aspho also caught some initial heat for similar things they are here though, to be fair. I think it's possible town!Aspho needs some time to spin their wheels, and their most recent post has been significantly more substantive anyways.

By the way for anyone interested TTTT was scum in Newbie 2088. So if anyone wants to try to get some metareads with me there you go.

Is Italiano still a scum read? Your biggest? Why not put your vote back there to get some pressure on them and see what happens?

If not Italiano, who is your biggest read? Would you be willing to get a second wagon going there then?

[furtiveglance]

CornPuffBuddha

: Tone is very logical and matter-of-fact. I usually associate this with scum, but I'm aware some users play like this as town (MalcolmTucker and TistDaniel for instance). I like that Corn has got stuck into reading other players in an outspoken way. Vote and unvote on Italiano both seem fairly measured, and I don't get the sense that there's a sinister motive in defending Take repeatedly - TTTT suggested 'false associatives', but I don't think that lines up with Corn's insistence in 239 that his read on Take was 'complicated'. I can see a natural thought process with Corn's posting, and I townread him.

BigTerp:

Tone early game is similar to last game (2090) when he was town. 236 gives 3 townreads, 3 null and 2 null/scumreads. I don't really think scum would give a list like this and then be so self-aware about the lack of scumreads, but that's just WIFOM I guess. My worry is that those reads are very easy to fake, and in 2090 Terp was more confident with a 'gut feel' on Somnus early. I understand his lack of committal could be due to some players coasting. I know logically he hasn't really earned a townread, but I'll go with my gut feel. BigTerp, if you had to guess one mafia right now, who would it be?

TTTT

: I've played with TTTT as both alignments now (2088 and 2090). As scum TTTT jumped on the first push day 1, which they haven't done with Italiano. However 185 is a weird post to make - last game TTTT didn't support my push at all, instead trailblazing his own path. I suppose 216 is more in line with this. Gut read is closer to town!TTTT than scum!TTTT, but it's not as strong a townread as last game.

Asphodelus

: 194 is imo one of the most interesting posts all game, (not the bit about the tell or pigeons) because in the bit under the dotted line Aspho gives reads on a lot of the playerlist - if you manage to pick apart what she says. TTTT and T02 are both townreads, as well as everyone who voted Italiano (BigTerp, Corn and Take) - with the reasoning that scum would want to sit back rather than wagon someone early. Whether you agree with this logic or not, I like the analysis and I can see the thought process. Then in 214 and 242 the TR on TTTT is retracted and it's hard to understand why. This latest move is really strange and dampens my townread. I just don't know why Aspho's entire view of the game changed so suddenly. Asphodelus, do you think TTTT is scum, find him very annoying, or both?

Takemikazuchi02

: I townread Take early for the aggression and frankness. Looking at his ISO now though, I can see that defensive mafia is a possibility. Italiano has suggested that Take's tone is different to 2091, which I can understand. It's worth noting though that players play differently in different situations as well as different alignments. My main problem with Take is that he seems to be conflating reads with his general attitude towards players - examples being Italiano and TTTT who are 'arrogant veterans'. In order to move Take out of null I'll need him to give reads on players other than those two, and 196 isn't really enough. On a side note, insulting people and calling them stupid won't help you as either alignment.

Val89

: Val was scum in 2088, and largely inactive that game. His play this game feels similar post-count wise, and I don't like that what he has said is mostly strategy, apart from an omgus vote on Aspho. Other users (TTTT, Corn and Terp I think) have town-leaned Val for his latest posts but I want more analysis from Val. Hopefully his visitors go away soon. Null/scumlean.

ItalianoVD

: I've already expressed my concern that the 'death tunnel' with Take started when Italiano had a few votes on him. It makes me think panicking scum looking for a pivot. I don't think the average town would react like that, but Italiano clearly isn't the average player which muddies my thinking on him. In my experience the 'know-it-all' act is more often used by mafia than town. His latest posts are showing signs of improvement however, and in a scum!Take world Italiano is obviously clear. I'm just not convinced by his push on Take. Scumlean.

abdbla

: I don't like the tone here at all. It comes across as confrontational and assuming things are obvious to people - 'What else?', 'am I misreading the thread?' etc. Furthermore there's a lack of explicit analysis in favour of pointless maths/strategy talk, which in my experience is indicative of scum. I could be being influenced by low post count here but for now it's a scumread.

I will keep my vote where it is, and encourage others to join if you agree.

[furtiveglance]

Furtive
I need more from you buddy

abdbla/Val with Italiano 3rd mafia and Take 4th?

That's the best I've got for you

[Asphodelus]

I'm not sure how I missed this post when responding previously, but I guess I did. Whoops.

No, I definitely don't think TTTT is town leaning, but more importantly to me, they're just annoying. Between 205 and 213, it just gives me the entire vibe of 'i have played more therefor i know more than you'. Quite frankly, I'm not actually enjoying playing with them as much as I enjoyed the previous group of players. Or, to confirm BigTerp's, it's definitely a OMGUS vote. The mistake thats being made here as well is thinking that interrogation and activity is the same as indicating town; but you've played with GoodMorning -- neither posting 5 one line sentences, one massive paragraph, or anything akin to it is AI. Poking at people over a frikkin fallacy and then getting mad at them for calling you out is literal 'well, i was only pretending to be bad!'

nevermind, I guess I will comment on this again, but the fallacy you're saying it is just isn't very applicable.
In any case, I think activity is AI. Engagement, as an example, is certainly somewhat affected by how unique your role is, and I don't think it's controversial to claim engagement affects activity.
I responded to this last game too, but in case it wasn't clear, activity =/= postcount.

Going back to post 230 and 231 -- the entire point of that 'information without telling' was to state the grounds of what I believe. The entire Train on T02 is started from a faulty premise, based on inappropiate statistical analysis and confusion on what a meta was. The

entire

point of it was to say I dislike the entire shit-flinging contest that was going on.

The issue I'm having is this is basically the same thing that happened in the last game under the guise of expertise over statistical analysis. Italiano's entire gimmick is saying pointed and accusatory things to see their reactions, then judge them from a sample set of one game and draw a completely different conclusion. TTTT's is much the same, except there's a pointed approach to T02 for some reason.

I'm worried I misread the actual point of your re-entrance. I was fairly certain that the meta talk and fallacy stuff in post 194 was revolving around the discussion on the greetings. Am I wrong?

T02 isn't stupid, just inexperienced, and seeing from previous games, tends to write what he means. The entire thing coming on from 'why put Ash on e-2' is predicated on the fact the entire move was stupid and pretty obvious from anyone who was reading. It served no real purpose, except, as this thread is showing 'well the fact you called it stupid means we got the result we wanted!'. It's almost like

Spoiler: Bait

and then everyone saying 'he recognized its bait, therefore it worked!'.

Not relevant to the point in general, but I dislike the images. They make it hard to read the post.

You're either accepting the fact that Italiano, with his weird 'i have solved the game in turn 1 but now we must slow post and wait' (which I think he just has his head up his own ass) is being town indicative for being _active_, or 'null-scum' for being vague, but at the same flip of the coin, you can't actually say that posting many lines of just stupid, fallacious ideas that are obvious to people with half a brain is AI.

I actually have no clue what you're trying to say here. Are you saying that Italiano's main arguments aren't AI because they're dumb?

I don't find TTTT Town-Leaning since a lot of their points are reaches. And more importantly, if there was an elim for tonight, I'd want it to be them.

I don't want to misrepresent your argument, but do you want to eliminate them because you think they're scum, or because they're not useful for town and you just dislike them?


P-edit:

[Referring to my 239]

"The way you phrased this makes it seem like you think its a towntell in your opinion. Is that what you think? If it is, why did you hedge yourself like this? If you don't think it is a towntell, again, why hedge that it might be by phrasing it like this?"

- I don't think I understand what you mean. I specifically added that caveat to make it explicit that I don't necessarily think TTTT making a bad read and T02 being in the clear in this specific instance doesn't mean they can't be scum. That sentence hurt to write. Sorry. Tell me if you need additional clarification there's probably a more lucid way to say that.

Okay, so you're saying that it just isn't a tell?

1) It absolutely is: And unlike your point in 209 where I was trying to drop it, but since we have to go back to it --

you even say that it's because of the summer that the two happen.

It has

nothing

to do with each other, and I even posted in my statement there, which you're ignoring, the

Stronger

statement was

people having a non-vanilla role causes them to engage more

. The entire reasoning that goes into 'Scum will greet the game more' is based on the idea that if you've a power role you're more engaged, but that's not

the only reason

someone can be engaged. The

entire

point of my math statement there was that you're mistaking two unrelated things for the more common, and actual reason -- it's why I picked one that even had the summer picked instead of the famous 'the lack of pirates is the leading cause of global warming' fallacy.

Your actual claim, as per the thread which I was arguing against is

Scum are more likely to engage

, but that's not because they're scum. You're coming in from the opposite angle: It's not greeting the thread that's AI, it's being Engaged that's indicative of having a power role, allegedly.

2) Yeah, and it was dumb last game too. Daniel was wrong, and you used it but you were scum, so it wasn't likely to be 'useful' as much as biased.

3) The image is great.

4) Pretty much. The actual arguement I was making was that scum wouldn't be pushing hard on one person or trying to do so -- it doens't benefit them to do that. But that entire thing is easily a WIFOM. A lot of his arguements aren't

town-indicative

since it's basically blowing hot air that doesn't lead anywhere. It's not Scum indicative to me since it's randomly pointed on T02 for no reason. You have to play a lot more subtle and let the town lead if you were scum.

5) Yes. Both.

[Asphodelus]

EB-WOP:

I find TTTT annoying and Scummy.

I am aware I am biased.

[CornPuffBuddha]

@BigTerp

264 - Yes, I'd say Italiano is still a scum lean. My biggest? Unsure. Gun to my head, currently I'd either put my vote on abdbla or Italiano, that seems like the most productive use of it. I have few strong TRs at this point and I think atleast one of the scum is someone without major FoS on them.

[CornPuffBuddha]

You know what, why not.

VOTE: abdbla

[abdbla]

@furtiveglance

It comes across as confrontational and assuming things are obvious to people - 'What else?', 'am I misreading the thread?'

If I come across as confrontational when asking these questions, that's not the intent. In general, and in those specific instances, the question has an obvious answer

to me

, but since the question was posed, it follows that there's some ambiguity. Ergo, I might've missed something, and ask for clarification or correction.

As an example, if we take my 'am I misreading the thread?' question (post 126), I was geniuinely wondering if I had missed some intro posts, or personally misdefined what an intro post was.

@Asphodelus

<snip>

1) It absolutely is: And unlike your point in 209 where I was trying to drop it, but since we have to go back to it --

you even say that it's because of the summer that the two happen.

It has

nothing

to do with each other, and I even posted in my statement there, which you're ignoring, the

Stronger

statement was

people having a non-vanilla role causes them to engage more

. The entire reasoning that goes into 'Scum will greet the game more' is based on the idea that if you've a power role you're more engaged, but that's not

the only reason

someone can be engaged. The

entire

point of my math statement there was that you're mistaking two unrelated things for the more common, and actual reason -- it's why I picked one that even had the summer picked instead of the famous 'the lack of pirates is the leading cause of global warming' fallacy.

Your actual claim, as per the thread which I was arguing against is

Scum are more likely to engage

, but that's not because they're scum. You're coming in from the opposite angle: It's not greeting the thread that's AI, it's being Engaged that's indicative of having a power role, allegedly.

Huh, I see your point. I don't agree, since choosing random people to elim from people who intro posted will hit scum more often than just choosing completely randomly, but the post does make sense.

3) The image is great.

4) Pretty much. The actual arguement I was making was that scum wouldn't be pushing hard on one person or trying to do so -- it doens't benefit them to do that. But that entire thing is easily a WIFOM. A lot of his arguements aren't

town-indicative

since it's basically blowing hot air that doesn't lead anywhere. It's not Scum indicative to me since it's randomly pointed on T02 for no reason. You have to play a lot more subtle and let the town lead if you were scum.

I guess I just disagree. The case for scum doing something like this is fairly simple: you've got two out of three experienced players against T02, so you just try to leverage experience into getting newbies to miselim. It also handily explains the very high and mighty stance he took earlier on, and why he switched out of it when nobody went along.

5) Yes. Both.

Could you elaborate on your scumtells on TTTT?

[Takemikazuchi02]

I don't think all this bickering is gonna get us anywhere. I sympathize with Aspho, I do find Italiano and to a lesser extent TTTT annoying and unfun to play but we need to play to win.

I'm gonna try to be more civil and I hope Aspho does the same and TTTT gets off high horse. I think Italiano is beyond compromise unfortunately..

[furtiveglance]

I don't think all this bickering is gonna get us anywhere. I sympathize with Aspho, I do find Italiano and to a lesser extent TTTT annoying and unfun to play but we need to play to win.

I'm gonna try to be more civil and I hope Aspho does the same and TTTT gets off high horse. I think Italiano is beyond compromise unfortunately..

[BigTerp]

BigTerp, if you had to guess one mafia right now, who would it be?

Italiano would be my #1. But it's not a highly confident feel right now. Hence my own response to my reads list as insufficient. We (I) need more discussion to help move things along. I think Italiano sticks out the most for reasons I mentioned here 236 and here 254. Then I go back and read 259 and feel like I'm reaching a bit to try and solidify my read on Italiano. I know I'm being hyper self-aware here, but I'm honestly feeling a bit lost so far this game. Such a different feel this game for me and I'm having a little trouble getting in the groove.