Newbie 2093 | New Wave | Postgame

[Asphodelus]

Because I was part of the informed minority and forgot that meant what was obvious to me isn't obvious to the majority.

[BigTerp]

I'm not sure why you would assume that was obvious.

If the claim is legit, and I'm not quite ready to buy that until that everyone else has checked in, albeit a potential fake claim here seems a tiny bit premature to my eyes, then I think that's further evidence against the scum!Italiano theory.

I mean it'd be a stupid claim to make if it wasn't true.

Agree that it would be a dumb fake claim at this point in the game. I can't really think of any reason why scum!Aspho would fake claim here. If trying again to protect abdbla, they have just outed themselves and would be found out with plenty of time for town to secure the win.

Aspho - I do wonder why you decided now was a good time to claim though? Any specific reason other than your response of "I can easily break that solve" to my solve of yourself and abdbla? You are currently at E-2, but with only 2 votes. One from myself and the other from Val who has been begging for everyone to back off of E-1 votes and give players a chance to further discuss things. Just seems like you had plenty of time to claim later, if even needed.

[BigTerp]

Because I was part of the informed minority and forgot that meant what was obvious to me isn't obvious to the majority.

Alright, I suppose.

Do you have any other reason to scum read me besides my "pushing" for the obvious elim's early in day 2? If I'm scum, who's my partner?

I still don't quite understand your play. You advocated for abdbla at the end of day 1. Came in and took Take to E-1, which ended up being an accidental hammer thus preventing the inevitable elim of abdbla. Mistake, fair enough. But you obviously liked Take for the elim over abdbla. Start of day 2 you immediately vote abdbla, without reason. You've now switched your vote to me, which at least you have given reasons for.

If you're the Jailkeeper, which we'll find out for certain soon enough, I just don't understand your play. It comes across as strange and a bit disorganized. And I don't mean that as an insult or anything, it's just the way I'm reading your play. Can you help me understand the above?

[BigTerp]

So then we get to the possibility of scumteams that don't include Asph. Call me if I'm wrong, but to me the most effective strategy here would be to eliminate Asph and I. The whole hammering discussion earlier really made me think of this. I'm not sure if it implicates anyone. I'm also not sure I like furtive's complete disregard for the self-hammer. As I've seen mentioned in several games, "informed perspective?"?

Thanks for agreeing to share your thoughts rather than whither away with the threat of being eliminated.

I read all of it, but want to address the above. Now that Asp has claimed a PR, do you still think eliminating yourself today is the best move? Why? If not, who would you suggest for the elim today?

[BigTerp]

UNVOTE: Asphodelus

[Malakittens]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

The reason why I “hmmm” at this because it felt like a soft for some PR.

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

Go on..........

This really bothered me. You should be experienced enough to know not to push a soft hence my scum read here...

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

hmmmmmm

and super hmmmmmmmmmm

at BigT

id be ok with a BigT & apb scum team

idk about asph

Please explain.

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

Still waiting. Why come in and make the above statement then disappear? It just screams scum!!!

Lolnope

Something about the game state is making me uneasy. Not even sure I can put it into words at the moment, but something feels off.

Anyone else feel that way or is it just me?

BigT is definitely scum here

[BigTerp]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

The reason why I “hmmm” at this because it felt like a soft for some PR.

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

Go on..........

This really bothered me. You should be experienced enough to know not to push a soft hence my scum read here...

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

hmmmmmm

and super hmmmmmmmmmm

at BigT

id be ok with a BigT & apb scum team

idk about asph

Please explain.

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

Still waiting. Why come in and make the above statement then disappear? It just screams scum!!!

Lolnope

Something about the game state is making me uneasy. Not even sure I can put it into words at the moment, but something feels off.

Anyone else feel that way or is it just me?

BigT is definitely scum here

Never picked up on the "soft" claim whatsoever. And, FWIW, this is only my second game since I last played in 2013(ish). Not using inexperience as an excuse, but I'm far from experienced in this game.

I was a hard scum read on Aspho after the way day 1 ended. They put that on themselves, however. Called them out and they responded with what were now saying is a "soft" claim. Seems unnecessary at that point in the game, but that's on me for not picking up on it I guess. I still feel the Aspho claim was too early. I believe I was really the only one putting pressure there. Why the need to claim so soon?

You're reading way to much into my interrogation of Aspho. I've explained it a few times already, and I would think even you can see how I drew a scum conclusion from their play at the end of day 1.

[Val89]

I am conscious there are still 2 people who haven't checked in yet that could potentially CC the JK claim, but having examined my ego, I accept now that the hang ups I have about the claim are likely just me not wanting to have been proven wrong in a read a second time rather than a real risk the claim isn't legit.

Firstly, if you sole or main reason for pushing BigTerp is that he was suspicious of you Asph, you should know that I absolutely consider that suspicion to have been legitimate. I know it's hard to understand when you are sat on a green role pm, and the instinctive reaction is to think anyone who therefore pushes a lim you (but only you) knows for sure would be a mislim is therefore scummy, but that suspicion was absolutely warranted in the circumstances and I make no criticism of BigTerp for expressing it.

In fact, I can't help but find myself slightly more suspicious of abdbla in light of that revelation for not being suspicious of your slot. The conclusions drawn in post 666 are sound, and spot on with respect as to why you couldn't have been scum partnered with me, furtive or mala; I initially took that as spew that the only scum!Aspho solve that made sense was {Aspho, Abdbla}, but now it appears like it is informed. Either abdbla is the third town slot in this game after Aspho and T02 to have acted in such a way to have become widely scumread, but unlike the other two, while acting in such a manner was capable of delivering razor-sharp, on point insights contrary to prevailing wisdom (and I'm not saying such a thing is impossible, please don't take this as an insult: abdbla might well be that outlying exceptionally insightful scummy-town player, I'm just considering the relative probabilities here), or abdbla had a much easier time coming up with a post like 666 because he started with the foreknowledge that Aspho was in fact town.

I lean towards the second, not only because of the balance of probabilities, but also because of some of the logic in said post:

I have mixed feelings on some of the other arguments made against Asph. On one hand, the "T02 was a top town-read" is a little unconvincing, considering I was apparently fairly townread. On the other hand, the immediate turn around to vote me afterwards, along with the discussed previous awareness of vote counts, makes me more than just suspicious.

This seems somewhat circular to me. I read the first part of it as "I find the argument that Aspho is scum because she voted T02 as a top town-read as a little unconvincing because she did the same to me" , and on the surface that makes sense; Aspho did have a townread for abdbla in 316, and the reads in [/post]447[/post] centered around finding people scummy for being on the abdbla wagon suggests it was quite a strong townread, they did turn around and vote abdbla as soon as Itailiano was off the table with the tracker claim. The next sentence however, says that having done so was "more than just suspicious", indicating that abdbla is aware that doing so can be considered highly scummy in how opportunistic it appeared and is happy to dish out that shade.

I find it difficult to tally how someone can effectively say, although in the reverse order so it wasn't entirely obvious on a quick glance, 'immediately turning around and voting for someone you've been townreading with no progression is more than just suspicious, but on the other hand she has done it twice" and come to the conclusion that "well, that's a positive and a negative, so I don't know how to feel about that" and not take a stance, rather than the more obvious "well, that's doubly suspicious", unless you were starting with the foreknowledge that Aspho was in fact town, and I'll go further and say that, for me, it also indicates, assuming a scum!abdbla, that the source of the a little bit unconvincing "she voted T02 as a top town-read" argument - namely BigTerp in 601 is also town, and knowing that town was pushing town, the point of this ambiguity was to be able to push one or another as a mislim depending on the way the wind blows.

[Val89]

Mala, I have to say, I think you have the most experience out of all of us here with the exception of Itailiano. You moderate games in the newbie queue. I can see perfectly well why Aspho might scumread there after BigTerp pushed her, but I should think you should have enough experience behind you to see why town might find Aspho scummy, and you aren't going to convince me that pushing legitimately scummy slots is a scumtell, even when it turns out they were incorrect pushes.

If you want to shade BigTerp on that basis, you should have noted that I also pushed Aspho, and took her "I can break that solve" as "I have an argument that anti-associates me and abdbla" rather than a PR soft, and criticize me for the same, but I note that you aren't. You give the other half of your scum!BigT solve as abdbla.

Talk to me about that. Why did you say you thought they were a pair in 610?

[BigTerp]

Interesting stuff from Val above.

Val - Does abdbla's post seem, to you, like they are coming from an informed player? If abdbla is scum, who is their partner?

Mala - If you got the soft claim from Aspho here 603 why did you say IDK about Aspho here 610?

Val makes good points in regards to your criticism of myself but no mention of Val's suspicion of Aspho as well. I'd like to hear your reasons there.

[Malakittens]

Mala, I have to say, I think you have the most experience out of all of us here with the exception of Itailiano. You moderate games in the newbie queue. I can see perfectly well why Aspho might scumread there after BigTerp pushed her, but I should think you should have enough experience behind you to see why town might find Aspho scummy, and you aren't going to convince me that pushing legitimately scummy slots is a scumtell, even when it turns out they were incorrect pushes.

If you want to shade BigTerp on that basis, you should have noted that I also pushed Aspho, and took her "I can break that solve" as "I have an argument that anti-associates me and abdbla" rather than a PR soft, and criticize me for the same, but I note that you aren't. You give the other half of your scum!BigT solve as abdbla.

Talk to me about that. Why did you say you thought they were a pair in 610?

Tbh i havent’t caught up so really haven’t noticed that you psushed her as well. I was trying to quickly post this morning, but then i got a call.

As for why I’m going with a BigT & adbbla scum team is i think this is more likely. BigT is pushing a counter wagon on Adbbla. I think you are more likely town; JV is an uncc’d pr. Ashp softed a pr. Which leaves me with a Poe of {adbbla, BigT & FG}

[ItalianoVD]

Oh. Yeah, sorry, I thought it was obvious. I'm the other PR role in the game. I roleblocked/protected Italiano last night, since the way I saw it was that he was either the target, or would be roleblocked anyway, and both routes would reveal we're in a game with a Mafia Roleblocker

assuming

the tracker actually exists.

I didn't realize i had to explicitly state it -- Jailor here. I'd love to hear any CC's.

Yes I was blocked, but I knew it couldn’t have been scum because scum would just kill me, not roleblock me. I posted my night action first post Day 2 so I could hint at what setup we were in to give the townies some info. I’m inclined to believe Asphodelus.

[Malakittens]

So abdl is the lim i want.

My Poe as follows: {BigT, abdl &. FG}
I’m less likely to lim FG over the first two.

[Val89]

Val - Does abdbla's post seem, to you, like they are coming from an informed player? If abdbla is scum, who is their partner?

Yes, that's the whole gist of my post above. Abdbla has been scummy enough to have been a leading wagon, on the absolute cusp of a flip, on both days. We know town can act scummy, we've seen it already this game, but if abdbla is town that'll be the

3rd

scummy newbtown slot. The difference with this one is, when pushed specifically to do so, this scummy slot has come up with some excellent insight contrary to how I was feeling about the game, that despite being quite wild to me based on the gamestate, has actually proven to be spot on. I say that, overall, being informed explains the pattern of behavior better than the alternative, particular as I think town would have shared that earlier than waiting, particular as I feel now that had I not intervened to delay the lim, we would never have seen that.

I might have bought, in isolation "I default to town!Aspho because I can't find a scum partner for her that makes sense", but when dealing with the scummy behavior arguments for scum!Aspho independently without considering the partner in paragraph 3, as I explained, the argument seems circular and contrary to what I think a logical town mindset would arrive at unless you were starting from the perspective of explaining that behavior knowing it was coming from town; but it also seems to reserve the right to push Aspho for being "more than a little suspicious", and also you for advancing an argument that is "a little unconvincing". In other words, it's fencesitty on the actual heart of the matter.

With respect to the partner, I think it's a little premature to be engaging in pre-flips, but I don't see any reason why Mala would advance the solve of BigT & abdbla, then charge after the more widely townread half of that pair, which is why I asked her what I have.

pedit: OK, I see we might have an answer to that point.

[Val89]

JV is an uncc’d pr.

I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this one.

[Val89]

Just to be sure, you aren't an alt of JacksonVirgo are you, Italiano? That was Mala getting mixed up with a previous game?

[BigTerp]

Val - Does abdbla's post seem, to you, like they are coming from an informed player? If abdbla is scum, who is their partner?

Yes, that's the whole gist of my post above. Abdbla has been scummy enough to have been a leading wagon, on the absolute cusp of a flip, on both days. We know town can act scummy, we've seen it already this game, but if abdbla is town that'll be the

3rd

scummy newbtown slot. The difference with this one is, when pushed specifically to do so, this scummy slot has come up with some excellent insight contrary to how I was feeling about the game, that despite being quite wild to me based on the gamestate, has actually proven to be spot on. I say that, overall, being informed explains the pattern of behavior better than the alternative, particular as I think town would have shared that earlier than waiting, particular as I feel now that had I not intervened to delay the lim, we would never have seen that.

I might have bought, in isolation "I default to town!Aspho because I can't find a scum partner for her that makes sense", but when dealing with the scummy behavior arguments for scum!Aspho independently without considering the partner in paragraph 3, as I explained, the argument seems circular and contrary to what I think a logical town mindset would arrive at unless you were starting from the perspective of explaining that behavior knowing it was coming from town; but it also seems to reserve the right to push Aspho for being "more than a little suspicious", and also you for advancing an argument that is "a little unconvincing". In other words, it's fencesitty on the actual heart of the matter.

With respect to the partner, I think it's a little premature to be engaging in pre-flips, but I don't see any reason why Mala would advance the solve of BigT & abdbla, then charge after the more widely townread half of that pair, which is why I asked her what I have.

pedit: OK, I see we might have an answer to that point.

Thanks. I mentioned earlier that abdbla's post here 605 seemed rather contrived and overdone. And now that you've read it as informed, and explained it well, it makes a lot of sense.

[BigTerp]

JV is an uncc’d pr.

I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this one.

I'm not even sure who JV is??

[BigTerp]

Just to be sure, you aren't an alt of JacksonVirgo are you, Italiano? That was Mala getting mixed up with a previous game?

Nevermind my previous post. Looks like Mala got Italiano's alt mixed up?

[furtiveglance]

I think it's a good thing Aspho claimed. Makes the scumpool abdbla/Val/Malakittens/BigTerp. Val and Malakittens wouldn't pair so openly as scum. I can't see any pair that doesn't involve abdbla. It's also noteable that we're meeting a kind of vague resistance with this abdbla vote for the second day running. Hard to pinpoint the partner among 2 cautious townies.

[BigTerp]

So abdl is the lim i want.

My Poe as follows: {BigT, abdl &. FG}
I’m less likely to lim FG over the first two.

So you vote Take over abdbla day 1. Take gets miselim'd.
Day 2 you say I'm "definitely scum" here 680, yet you prefer an abdbla elim over myself?

Help me understand your thinking here.

[ItalianoVD]

JV is an uncc’d pr.

I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this one.

Just to be sure, you aren't an alt of JacksonVirgo are you, Italiano? That was Mala getting mixed up with a previous game?

JV is an uncc’d pr.

I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this one.

I'm not even sure who JV is??

Just to be sure, you aren't an alt of JacksonVirgo are you, Italiano? That was Mala getting mixed up with a previous game?

Nevermind my previous post. Looks like Mala got Italiano's alt mixed up?

Yeah definitely not Jackson. Not sure if that was a typo or what.

[Val89]

Nevermind my previous post. Looks like Mala got Italiano's alt mixed up?

I don't this he is, I was just asking to be sure, because that's the alternative explanation.

It looks to me like Mala got confused with the last game we played together, the one I referenced in [post=X]X[/post]; but thinking about it I think an argument could be made that it was a towntell (because it indicates a lack of attention not usually associated with scum) and a scumtell (because she was scum in that game, and her play was to attempt to buddy me and JV in a neighborhood and lurk it out otherwise, a mindset that might have bled through here); so I think the safest thing is to consider it NAI and forget it.

pedit: Yeah, I thought as much.

[Val89]

It looks to me like Mala got confused with the last game we played together, the one I referenced in 628;

EBWODP

[abdbla]

No cc, obviously.

Either abdbla is the third town slot in this game after Aspho and T02 to have acted in such a way to have become widely scumread, but unlike the other two, while acting in such a manner was capable of delivering razor-sharp, on point insights contrary to prevailing wisdom.

. . .

The difference with this one is, when pushed specifically to do so, this scummy slot has come up with some excellent insight contrary to how I was feeling about the game, that despite being quite wild to me based on the gamestate, has actually proven to be spot on.

I feel pocketed, but like, in a good way.

I lean towards the second, not only because of the balance of probabilities, but also because of some of the logic in said post:

I have mixed feelings on some of the other arguments made against Asph. On one hand, the "T02 was a top town-read" is a little unconvincing, considering I was apparently fairly townread. On the other hand, the immediate turn around to vote me afterwards, along with the discussed previous awareness of vote counts, makes me more than just suspicious.

This seems somewhat circular to me. I read the first part of it as "I find the argument that Aspho is scum because she voted T02 as a top town-read as a little unconvincing because she did the same to me" , and on the surface that makes sense; Aspho did have a townread for abdbla in 316, and the reads in [/post]447[/post] centered around finding people scummy for being on the abdbla wagon suggests it was quite a strong townread, they did turn around and vote abdbla as soon as Itailiano was off the table with the tracker claim. The next sentence however, says that having done so was "more than just suspicious", indicating that abdbla is aware that doing so can be considered highly scummy in how opportunistic it appeared and is happy to dish out that shade.

I find it difficult to tally how someone can effectively say, although in the reverse order so it wasn't entirely obvious on a quick glance, 'immediately turning around and voting for someone you've been townreading with no progression is more than just suspicious, but on the other hand she has done it twice" and come to the conclusion that "well, that's a positive and a negative, so I don't know how to feel about that" and not take a stance, rather than the more obvious "well, that's doubly suspicious", unless you were starting with the foreknowledge that Aspho was in fact town, and I'll go further and say that, for me, it also indicates, assuming a scum!abdbla, that the source of the a little bit unconvincing "she voted T02 as a top town-read" argument - namely BigTerp in 601 is also town, and knowing that town was pushing town, the point of this ambiguity was to be able to push one or another as a mislim depending on the way the wind blows.

I don't think you read my argument correctly on that one. I find voting for your townreads suspicious, but willing to accept that they might've been conceding that they aren't confident in their read accuracy when opposed by most of the game, and just voting whoever is lowest of them, even if they find both fairly townie. The argument there was that I think the difference between me and T02 wasn't all that high, so after liking the post I made, turning around and voting T02 instead isn't implausible. What I did find suspicious was immediately voting me the next day, considering its a new day and with plenty of time for discussions to be held, considering she (supposedly) thought I was townie.

Val - Does abdbla's post seem, to you, like they are coming from an informed player? If abdbla is scum, who is their partner?

I might have bought, in isolation "I default to town!Aspho because I can't find a scum partner for her that makes sense", but when dealing with the scummy behavior arguments for scum!Aspho independently without considering the partner in paragraph 3, as I explained, the argument seems circular and contrary to what I think a logical town mindset would arrive at unless you were starting from the perspective of explaining that behavior knowing it was coming from town; but it also seems to reserve the right to push Aspho for being "more than a little suspicious", and also you for advancing an argument that is "a little unconvincing". In other words, it's fencesitty on the actual heart of the matter.

I am fencesitting. The Italiano/Asph solve haunts me - which, for the record, equally possible at the moment, considering it had to coexist with a non-jailkeeper setup - but disregarding that, I have no clue. Terp, for all my bashing, has townie inertia, and I'm still unwilling to believe Terp is scum. If I had to narrow it down right now I'd say it's probably furtive and Mala. I don't see a reason for scum!Val to push the gamestate to this degree, though muddled by the fact that some of the discussion is "objectively correct" arguments, like the self-hammering stuff, which is practically NAI in my opinion.

Between Mala and furtive, I have no idea. I'm not particularly swayed by the recent posts by Mala, but I'm less favorable of furtive at this point. Apart from pushing me today, they haven't said much. Their argumentation has been based almost solely on yesterdays wagon and around the assumption that I'm scum. Apart from that, 622 has thoughts on mala that are almost completely echoed from Val's own 592, and their thoughts on Asph are just a wishy-washy "it could be an accident, but it could also not be".