Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[MalcolmTucker]

Yeah, I read that as him saying that Day 1 could actually be the most beneficial time to eliminate a Beloved Princess, because there are the maximum amount of town role actions available. So, I guess the risk is mitigated if she is a town Beloved Princess, and there's also a good chance of her just being scum. I'm not really sure how accurate that is, but I did have a thought along those lines as well.

there's also little to no other claims out there, so scum can't PR snipe well, so it's just mowing down people.

Scum can also choose not to kill because they only to kill 2 times in each 3 phases.

On this, do we reckon all scum teams kill tonight? I'd initially expect so since it's D1 and the game is still big enough that you can probably eliminate someone as scum and get away with it without people making obvious associatives. But then it obviously gets trickier further down the line once role player are perhaps revealed - if you don't have a kill, you risk them being able to live another day.

i agree. going Mastina, if they are actually town BP, opens up a lot of bloodshed, but it's more of a matter of does the bloodshed matter. scum can hit possible scum anyways. And if Mastina is scum, they're just scum.

The double night is always gonna feel drastic, though, but there's also the possibility that scum kill Mastina if she's on the right track ever, but not looking likely based on her weak reasonings, so either way.

Catboi still my preferred.

I'm personally not in favour of Mastina for now - not entirely keen on their read on Butter without more detail being put to that and I feel like their read of you is not entirely honest either.

On Catboi...I think I'm 50/50. Very much didn't get the scum reads initially but didn't like their approach to the Bnuuy wagon at all. Felt like a very useful way to potentially get some pressure off them.

[The Keeper]

Mastina also trying really hard to make ToogelooScum a thing

The claim means it’s not really worth pushing Mastina today, but there’s some icky stuff there.

She does seem to like running similar seeds...

[MalcolmTucker]

Looking over Mastina's last game I can see she is an extremely high content poster and contributed to her towns win as a Town Mason. I am not comfortable with eliming her as a claimed BP. Based on the claim she is the player I would last like to see eliminated. In fact anyone proposing her elimination I am extremely suspicious of now that I think about it.

Monkey, where do you stand re this given recent pushes on Mastina? I'm unsure on the slot but I don't think your post here is entirely unreasonable, however unsure if you've changed since you don't appear to be pushing particularly hard on players you initially thought would have been scummy for pushing Mastina at all D1.

[MonkeyMan576]

Odds on Mastina's alignment:
Town(70%)
Scum(30%)

I just realized Mastina can't be a jester because the setup is pre-revealed. And while Mastina could be scum I am against eliminating her and find the idea of doing so scummy in general, but not as scummy as the bnuuy wagon.

[MalcolmTucker]

Reading through their ISO and I am really, really split on Cassowary.

On the one hand, I like their posts as a rule - not too confrontational as such but the logic is mostly solid.

They TR'd me at a time when it would have been easy and opportunistic for them to hop onto a wagon.

Their suspicion of Monkey felt perfectly reasonable at the time and similarly to me they have progressed on the slot as the game has gone on. They've pushed the slot a bit but not gotten too hyper-focused on it either.

And the fact they have TR'd Sword early on to a degree gives me an indication they're not just opportunistically pushing slots for easy eliminations.

But by the same token...given the multiball setup, it also feels like they're employing a fairly cautious and careful style that allows them to scumhunt in a way that helps them avoid any suspicion while perhaps managing to be subtle mafia. Their post count is fairly thin so far and in terms of pushes they've not done much beyond going for Monkey a bit before backing out and tentatively - but still not really - pushing Flavor a little bit.

[Flavor Leaf]

Odds on Mastina's alignment:
Town(70%)
Scum(30%)

I just realized Mastina can't be a jester because the setup is pre-revealed. And while Mastina could be scum I am against eliminating her and find the idea of doing so scummy in general, but not as scummy as the bnuuy wagon.

30% is an insanely strong scum read on Day 1, btw.

[MonkeyMan576]

I wouldn't say that. That's her odds in a vacuum, not compared to every other player in the game. She's kind of put herself out there with the BP claim.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, you're right. Normally that'd be an insanely strong scum read, but there's a lot of total scum here, so 37.5% of being scum is the neutral for this game.

[Flavor Leaf]

and neutral scum reading isn't strong at all because it's just gambler's fallacy.

[Save The Dragons]

i think i'd still lim malcolm if given the opportunity

[MalcolmTucker]

Reading back I'd be surprised if Mastina/Nashville are aligned. Nashville saying they don't necessarily believe the claim but don't think it's scummy feels like an incredibly weird way for a teammate to try and defend another teammate...easier to just openly believe the claim.

If Mastina is town, perfectly feasible Nashville could be taking a punt on Mastina not being on the other team and viewing it as a good chance to try and build some town-cred going forward. In fact if Mastina is town I'd be very surprised if no scum attempt to do this. Obviously scum can't definitively know Mastina isn't rival scum but the odds drop significantly if Mastina isn't in one of their teams, statistically speaking.

[The Keeper]

i mean there's 9 scum you can be like there's definitely scum in any 4 people and probably hit

90.2% chance of hitting one, I think? It's been a while since I've done that type of math.

I think you picked up Bob's Brain.
We have around a 39% chance to hit a non-town faction.
35% to hit Hushies or Mom's Minions.

[Save The Dragons]

Reading through their ISO and I am really, really split on Cassowary.

On the one hand, I like their posts as a rule - not too confrontational as such but the logic is mostly solid.

They TR'd me at a time when it would have been easy and opportunistic for them to hop onto a wagon.

Their suspicion of Monkey felt perfectly reasonable at the time and similarly to me they have progressed on the slot as the game has gone on. They've pushed the slot a bit but not gotten too hyper-focused on it either.

And the fact they have TR'd Sword early on to a degree gives me an indication they're not just opportunistically pushing slots for easy eliminations.

But by the same token...given the multiball setup, it also feels like they're employing a fairly cautious and careful style that allows them to scumhunt in a way that helps them avoid any suspicion while perhaps managing to be subtle mafia. Their post count is fairly thin so far and in terms of pushes they've not done much beyond going for Monkey a bit before backing out and tentatively - but still not really - pushing Flavor a little bit.

like this doesn't say anything it just makes him look like that he's putting in work

Reading back I'd be surprised if Mastina/Nashville are aligned. Nashville saying they don't necessarily believe the claim but don't think it's scummy feels like an incredibly weird way for a teammate to try and defend another teammate...easier to just openly believe the claim.

If Mastina is town, perfectly feasible Nashville could be taking a punt on Mastina not being on the other team and viewing it as a good chance to try and build some town-cred going forward. In fact if Mastina is town I'd be very surprised if no scum attempt to do this. Obviously scum can't definitively know Mastina isn't rival scum but the odds drop significantly if Mastina isn't in one of their teams, statistically speaking.

like this doesn't really say much again a random toothless comment that makes it look like he's putting in work

[The Keeper]

FL continues to pick up Black hearts I see.
even sharing them with the MonkeyMan...

[butterchurn]

i mean there's 9 scum you can be like there's definitely scum in any 4 people and probably hit

90.2% chance of hitting one, I think? It's been a while since I've done that type of math.

I think you picked up Bob's Brain.
We have around a 39% chance to hit a non-town faction.
35% to hit Hushies or Mom's Minions.

I think you misunderstood. I'm surprised you thought I meant the chance of any one person being scum, because obviously that would not be that high. The 90.2% was the chance that any randomly chosen group of 4 has at least 1 scum in it, in this setup.

[butterchurn]

Controllllll

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=88500

Thanks. On a first glance, that does have a similar feel to it. Interesting then that in her first readlist, the 3 people she said she was most suspicious of were her 3 scum partners. I feel like that's important context. I doubt she would replicate that exactly, and in fact, I know she didn't, since I was one of her top 3 in this game. Here it was me, Flavor Leaf, and MonkeyMan.

[Well Done]

We think that Flavor Leaf is scum and has taken great efforts to establish narratives this game to control the flow of the game. Setting up strong ideas that it is this person vs that person, or that this other person is pocketing people, that scum are covering for Catboi and that mastina is a good elimination (she's not). They feel like they're talking past us and setting up their own version of events for this game. It doesn't feel like he is focused on finding and killing scum so much as trying to push narratives today and trying to get people to think about the game in certain ways.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

[Save The Dragons]

no

[Well Done]

Yes and stop disagreeing with us about every single thing

[Sword of Ducks]

no

what

[Save The Dragons]

present arguments that are agreeable then

[Well Done]

There's a lot of bad math on this page. 1911 is correct.

[Save The Dragons]

the zeal from FL just seems town tbh

i just don't know if he's right about things but i don't really see it coming from scum

[Save The Dragons]

Probability of 1 scum in 4 random people is not 35%

[Well Done]

Probability of 1 scum in 4 random people is not 35%

It is if you act like the malefactor is a bad elim, which is what they're talking about