In post 6354, Nashville Dreams wrote:That's why I said semi far. It's impossible to read her engagement but it can still undeniably ping. I'm reading her by her FL read but still can't deny but I hope the lack of activity doesn't factor. People can and frequently do consider inadmissible evidence.
jjh developed a rather fine trick to track my engagement:
My blog reflects my engagement in most aspects of my life, mafia included.
No blog? No online life.
Minimal blog? Probably Minimal online life.
You'd have to ask him for his exact methodology, but it's definitely accurate, in my experience with his usage of the technique.
I just find mastina's low activity suspicious in general.
My activity is, objectively: not low. Not in posts per day (dead serious, if you math it out--which I did--it comes out to over 3 posts per 24 hours, and is actually even closer to 4 per day), and not in content (almost every post of mine contains content which was, well: content).
But again, players see raw numbers of pages, posts, etc. And blindly make claims that are provably false, because of sheer laziness and/ or scumminess.
Don't believe me?
Well you can either wait for me to post the math and give iso highlights, or if you don't wanna wait, do the math yourself (don't forget to subtract 48 hours due to the night phase) and the iso yourself to see for yourself that I actually AM actively here, playing, and contributing IN SPITE OF MY IOBLIGATIONS.
I literally am making time for this game at almost every opportunity that I can.
You're acting like no one that posts regularly has other obligations. So I'm not buying it, sorry. You can go all Colin Raye on us all you want.
In post 5921, mastina wrote:(Read everything in the day phase so far but fuck going through to respond to it all I'm not falling behind again by trying that)
VOTE: Flavor Leaf
-Still scum,
-Still alive,
-I don't care about FL's claim, the prior to are more important,
-He has a wagon on him
-{MegAzumarill, Nashville Dreams, SCP, Cat Scratch Fever, Menalque} are all town so the wagons on them suck.
So this is my preference.
Would also vote {bnuuy, Enchant, butterchurn, Monkeyman, Malcolm Tucker},
maybe
cassowary.
Butyeah,
FL >>>>> bnuuy
>
Monkeyman
>
Enchant = Malcolm Tucker = butterchurn >>> cassowary >>>>> slots y'all are being stupid for wagoning because they're town
In terms of eliminations here. (I admit that Klick
could
be a werewolf, but being a mason + vibing with Klick's reads yesterday make me think the masonry is all town.)
These are mastina's latest reads.
She has CSF town. Nero has CSF scum.
She has FL scum. Nero has FL town.
She has Meg town. Nero has Meg scum.
She has Klick town. Nero has Klick scum.
She has Melanque town. Nero appears to FoS Melanque.
mastina doesn't mention Nero in her wall at all.
Players' competency levels change, and my opinion of players is fluid, also changing.
A Nero Cain of 6-8 years ago having reads opposite of mine would instantly make me scumread him since his whole shtick was being accurate but uncharasmatic.
These days though, frankly, I'd scumread Nero if his reads were too good.
If Nero Cain thinks that he's as good a scumhuntwr now as he was 6-8 years ago, he's delusional. Because in my experience with him in the last 4 years, his reads have been terrible. He's not as good as he used to be and is notably much worse.
So his terrible reads is a reason why I still townread the slot.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
Actually, Mastina said that I was town b/c my reads were horrible.
great reading that.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
Nashville Dreams, bnuuy, tictac, Ydrasse, Save The Dragons, Menalque
Okay so I was going to get to this when I got to my last post at work, but I'm gonna address it now.
Spoiler: RE: Nero Cain
In post 6452, mastina wrote:Players' competency levels change, and my opinion of players is fluid, also changing.
A Nero Cain of 6-8 years ago having reads opposite of mine would instantly make me scumread him since his whole shtick was being accurate but uncharasmatic.
These days though, frankly, I'd scumread Nero if his reads were too good.
If Nero Cain thinks that he's as good a scumhuntwr now as he was 6-8 years ago, he's delusional. Because in my experience with him in the last 4 years, his reads have been terrible. He's not as good as he used to be and is notably much worse.
So his terrible reads is a reason why I still townread the slot.
This was overly harsh to Nero Cain and he has every right to, justifiably, be ticked off at my description of him because it is unfair to him.
I apologize for that, it was due to me running out of time, and phoneposting, and being unable to explain it properly.
The Nero Cain of now is not terrible. But the Nero Cain of 6-8 years ago was more accurate in reads.
The Nero Cain of 6-8 years ago was mostly accurate, with the occasional miss, but genuinely without stretching logic, was right like 80+% of the time. The scum in games with him were actually consistently in the bottom half of his reads and the town were consistently in the top half of his reads.
The Nero Cain I've seen more recently has been, largely, less accurate. Instead of the scum consistently being in the bottom half of his reads, he'll have
some
scum there (~20-40% of them), and then the remaining scum he'll have made one or two passing comments where he is criticizing them while townreading them. Between that, and swapping reads, I've seen Nero use what is a less-disingenuous version of what FL says. (Basically, FL's model is if he townreads and scumreads every single player in the game, he can claim that he was correct, and that the wrong read was a lie. Nero's version is less disingenuous, but it still is present.)
What this means to me is that Nero Cain is not as good as he used to be, to me.
6-8 years ago, Nero Cain's reads were some of the best onsite and his reads being entirely opposite of mine meant something was usually amiss.
In the last 4 or so years, Nero Cain's reads haven't been that level of best onsite. He's terrible
compared to what he used to be
, not terrible in general. He's still decent, but his actual strong most-of-the-game-long consistent reads are far more middle of the road: not terrible, but not amazing. (I do stand by that if Nero thinks he's just as good as he was back then, that he's delusional tho, because the Nero Cain of back then was genuinely
amazing
, and the Nero Cain of now is...well, not bad, just not amazing.)
So these days, I would consider it a scumtell if Nero Cain's reads aligned with my own the way they did 6-8 years ago. These days, them being opposite to mine is a towntell for Nero Cain.
Mind you--I consider myself middle of the road overall, too.
So I would expect Nero Cain to be right on some reads I am wrong on, and for me to be right on some reads that Nero Cain is wrong on (regardless of what he says about said wrong reads in the postgame).
But there is one thing all of this is leading up to, and it is about the quoted Nero Cain post.
And that is, that there is still something Nero is good at, just as good at doing now as he was 6-8 years ago:
Making good points, regardless of the accuracy of those points.
And Nero Cain for 6381 is making an incredibly good point--the wagon on Cat Scratch Fever is nearly identical to the mislim wagon on Toogeloo.
Now, Nero is saying that it is suspect for those players to be both, at least I assume his implication is such, but that's where I diverge from him, in that I believe those players to be almost all town.
But Nero's point about the wagons being nearly identical in tone/feel/composition/etc. is dead on the money, and is apt for demonstrating that Cat Scratch Fever is a mislim. Regardless of whether Nero Cain is right about the name overlap being suspect containing scum or whether I am right about the name overlap being mostly town, we both agree on one thing; the wagon sucks ass, and is identical to the Toogeloo wagon in how it will turn out. (With a mislim.)
tldr version:
The Nero Cain of old I would expect to have our reads mostly align and for his reads to be Really Damn Good.
The Nero Cain of now, I would expect to have reads largely opposite of mine, and for his reads to be average/mid-tiered: not terrible, but not the same level of Really Damn Good of old.
I would also expect with me also being average/mid-tiered in reads, that Nero Cain and I would have some overlap in both reads and thought process, in spite of our conclusions still largely coming up opposites in a lot of key areas.
Or in other words: we disagree on more areas than we agree, but that means the areas we agree on are all the more important and all the more likely to be accurate.
If Nero Cain and I are both saying a slot is town, it's basically guaranteed the slot IS town.
If Nero Cain and I disagree on a read, one of us is right and the other is wrong and it's a 50/50 as to which, but if Nero Cain and I agree on a read, the read is right.
(For the record, Titus is in a similar boat to Nero Cain. It is not where we disagree that's important, it's where we agree. Titus's level of agreeing with me vs. disagreeing with me is dead on the money for Titus being town, and where she and I align makes the read be more certain.)
In post 6441, mastina wrote:Oh, yes, FL was accurate on a scumread on a werewolf when via being a Monk, he couldn't be a Werewolf.
Pardon my lack of confidence in FLs townness.
We knew from D1 that FL couldn't be a Werewolf, and his accuracy was in a single player being a werewolf, the faction he already couldn't be.
I would be perfectly fine with being vigged, for the record, but I flat-out just don't believe that FL is a town vig. He's either mafia fakeclaiming or a legit gated mafia vig.
pmuch this yea.
the likelyhood of leaf being gated vig like he says and deciding to out all the monks day1 is not astronomical.
so not actually expecting a 3 kill night, but willing to allow 4 the possibility.
and if he wants to feed us wolves on the way out i'm fine w that also.
why do u townread scratcy?
In post 6407, Nero Cain wrote:We could vote for sure scum Dunn but this town is a clusterfuck and the game is a scum paridise
Ima keep it real I do think Dunn could be scum but I feel like the CSF wagon is okay too, while I don’t get the exact science of it I think Flavor Leaf’s pool of 4 theory seems sounds.
In post 6441, mastina wrote:I would be perfectly fine with being vigged, for the record, but I flat-out just don't believe that FL is a town vig.
When you say that you are ok with being vigged and then you are trying to kill the claimed vig....
and so what? If he's scum masquerading as a vig then you just eat up the scums 2nd shot.
Because I don't believe FL is going to actually shoot me, that simple.
He's Flavor Leaf.
Anything he says he will do, he won't.
And then after the fact he will claim whatever is most convenient. Be honest that he didn't, or lie and say he did, or often both on the same gameday.
If it were literally any other slot in the game claiming vig, I would not vote them because I would believe their claim that they would vig me, and I would welcome the vig on me.
But it's Flavor Leaf--so he's not going to actually vig me.
If he's a scum vig he's going to have any number of reasons for not genuinely shooting me as a vig.
And if he's just mafia fakeclaiming vig, you said it yourself: shooting me would be wasting a mafia nightkill. Flavor Leaf isn't going to waste a mafia nightkill on me, so if he's mafia fakeclaiming vig, he's not going to shoot me and waste the mafia shot.
Fuck, even if he's a town vig (he isn't), he probably wouldn't shoot me. He's scum, so that's not a real thing, but even a town-FL couldn't be trusted to shoot me.
If he's not going to shoot me (and regardless of town, mafia vig, or mafia fakeclaiming vig, he's not going to genuinely shoot me no matter what), then why would I let him live through the day?
In post 6445, Nero Cain wrote:Anyways, what happened in the last 4 pages that made you decide to comment?
There was things actually worth commenting on, which were easy enough to comment on while phoneposting.
