Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[skitter30]

where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

This is reductive and not my actual position

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

[skitter30]

yes
(1) why do i bring up the game where he loltunneled his own partners first
(2) this universe would be 100x easier to win if i don't shut down the nk15 townreads in the beginning but instead scumread enough other players to get him into the coalition, flip him, then carry myself; as opposed to getting myself into the coalition and banking on winning by flipping 3 out of skitt/irrel/mena/ari before myself
(3) i don't have the wim to play like this with a deadbeat partner who's doing nothing but tunnelling me in thread
(4) i'm not scum

1. Dont know, but iirc didnt ari bring it up already?
2. Uhhhhj not sure that would actually be an easier gameplan / doable? Like you can say that's what you would have done but its sufficiently different from how tue day actually played out that i'm not sure you could have made the day happen that way ...
3. I mean ok fair
4. Idk that, and it seems a reasonable explanation for nk15's actions
5. Your post explaining why you didnt scumread nk15 for the hammer gave me the creeps

[skitter30]

yes
(1) why do i bring up the game where he loltunneled his own partners first
(2) this universe would be 100x easier to win if i don't shut down the nk15 townreads in the beginning but instead scumread enough other players to get him into the coalition, flip him, then carry myself; as opposed to getting myself into the coalition and banking on winning by flipping 3 out of skitt/irrel/mena/ari before myself
(3) i don't have the wim to play like this with a deadbeat partner who's doing nothing but tunnelling me in thread
(4) i'm not scum

1. Dont know, but iirc didnt ari bring it up already?
2. Uhhhhj not sure that would actually be an easier gameplan / doable? Like you can say that's what you would have done but its sufficiently different from how tue day actually played out that i'm not sure you could have made the day happen that way ...
3. I mean ok fair
4. Idk that, and it seems a reasonable explanation for nk15's actions
5. Your post explaining why you didnt scumread nk15 for the hammer gave me the creeps

[skitter30]

so basically what you're saying is: you townread std over all of the current coalition members (excluding yourself)?

Yes

[skitter30]

like i was asking how did you think she was gonna accomplish that / why did you think it was a viable path for scum!her to do tha

I dont know, i hadnt thought that far in advance but that was the first thought that paranoia-popped into my head upon failure

When if wad pointed out that didnt make much sense, i retracted

[skitter30]

anyway when you're around, skitter, let's jam because i feel like the only reasons you suspect me are (1) awkward interaction with ari back on like page 0.5 (2) ~*paranoia*~ and like. those are not really good reasons.

K. I have a busy morning but i'll be around this afternoon

But i dont really have great reasons, i just townread you the least and now i need to find scum in this group so

I am open (and considering) to the possibility of it being someone else, but you (or ari) being scum makes my worldview the least wrong so that's where i'm starting

[Datisi]

yes
(1) why do i bring up the game where he loltunneled his own partners first
(2) this universe would be 100x easier to win if i don't shut down the nk15 townreads in the beginning but instead scumread enough other players to get him into the coalition, flip him, then carry myself; as opposed to getting myself into the coalition and banking on winning by flipping 3 out of skitt/irrel/mena/ari before myself
(3) i don't have the wim to play like this with a deadbeat partner who's doing nothing but tunnelling me in thread
(4) i'm not scum

1. Dont know, but iirc didnt ari bring it up already?
2. Uhhhhj not sure that( would actually be an easier gameplan / doable? Like you can say that's what you would have done but its sufficiently different from how tue day actually played out that i'm not sure you could have made the day happen that way ...
3. I mean ok fair
4. Idk that, and it seems a reasonable explanation for nk15's actions
5. Your post explaining why you didnt scumread nk15 for the hammer gave me the creeps

(1) ari first brought it up in 725. i first brought it up in 289.
(2) i'm not saying it would be 100% doable but it would be worth a shot enough for me to keep my mouth shut about nk15 while y'all are thinking he's town because "isn't grabbing towncred"
(5) if the scumteam is me/nk, then nk is never getting flipped before me. so you'll only be looking for nk AFTER i'm confirmed to flip red. and i make that post explaining why nk is not lockscum when he's never getting voted before me because ???

[Datisi]

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

i mean yes you made it very clear you did not want ari in, but you also kept hinting that you could i guess maybe vote there and you did approximately nothing to push std into a coalition so...

i have to pretend to be a contributing member to society for a bit but i'll write out a bigger post later today

[Irrelephant11]

Day 2 has strengthened my townread on Aristeia and my scumread on mena
Datisi and skitter are each, if scum, knocking it out of the park.

[fireisredsir]

what do you expect scum!skitter to do

in short, suspect people for good reasons. like ive only ever seen early game scum skitter but i mostly remember her saying lots of reasonable things that most people would agree with and couldn't really be disputed that easily.

so id think she would express some paranoia around you and/or datisi to keep those options open but i don't really think she'd jump to you as a team right off the bat and then also back off right after. as someone widely townread she doesn't really have to lead and can just prod around a bit and let other people convince her of things

her reaction does follow from what she wanted earlier, so it isn't like out of nowhere, but it feels like she just jumped headfirst into the fire for no good reason... ok actually wait there is one possible good reason which is if she is partnered with irrel/mena. but anyway outside of that i just don't expect scum skitter to do things for no good reason

maybe im wrong on that and if you can convince me that there is a good reason (outside of just matching town tone, don't think she needs that) or of her doing similar things in the past as scum then i can reconsider

[Aristeia]

what do you expect scum!skitter to do

in short, suspect people for good reasons. like ive only ever seen early game scum skitter but i mostly remember her saying lots of reasonable things that most people would agree with and couldn't really be disputed that easily.

so id think she would express some paranoia around you and/or datisi to keep those options open but i don't really think she'd jump to you as a team right off the bat and then also back off right after. as someone widely townread she doesn't really have to lead and can just prod around a bit and let other people convince her of things

her reaction does follow from what she wanted earlier, so it isn't like out of nowhere, but it feels like she just jumped headfirst into the fire for no good reason... ok actually wait there is one possible good reason which is if she is partnered with irrel/mena. but anyway outside of that i just don't expect scum skitter to do things for no good reason

maybe im wrong on that and if you can convince me that there is a good reason (outside of just matching town tone, don't think she needs that) or of her doing similar things in the past as scum then i can reconsider

correct me if I'm wrong but you're townreading her for making a bad push against me?

[Aristeia]

where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

This is reductive and not my actual position

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

I don't actually know which coalition you wanted that excluded both me and datisi.

as far as I remember you wanted irrel/yourself/mena/std but you didn't have a fifth?

[fireisredsir]

correct me if I'm wrong but you're townreading her for making a bad push against me?

well i kinda thought it was more nuanced than that

i think specifically in the position she is in in the current gamestate with the current level of suspicion on her she would be more likely to lose standing by making that push and there's very little she could gain from it, and i think she as scum would know that

i also was townreading her already so i mean its not like its my only reason

[Aristeia]

I don't think you quite understand how to play mafia alignment if you think a mafia skitter would be content to sit still and poke/prod without shaping the game state towards mis-eliminating townies because that's *literally* her win condition if she is mafia.

As for why skitter would push me -> like mala/nk15 have both indicated they thought I was at the top of their scum list[which makes me viable for being eliminated], she's a town leader and she already set up a trajectory to push me for "paranoia" and being the failure point on her coalition - it allows her to push through this day phase without doing meaningful re-evaluation of her original coalition.

The goal of being scum is to kill people who are town, one of the central tenets of that is to have a believable push progression; it is fairly trivial and simple for her to continue her push against me, it is far simpler and cleaner for her to do than to flip a read on say irrel or mena because that would be complicated - she has to actually push someone inside the coalition as being mafia.

[Aristeia]

i think specifically in the position she is in in the current gamestate with the current level of suspicion on her she would be more likely to lose standing by making that push and there's very little she could gain from it, and i think she as scum would know that

the gain would be eliminating me, it would be [1/3] of the way to winning for her.

[Save The Dragons]

i feel adrift and lost now

[Not Known 15]

i feel adrift and lost now

Why?

[Aristeia]

like a lot of her thoughts are incongruent and don't make sense to me in aggregate;



here she's suspect of mala's suspicion of me - she kind of has a back and forth with mala and I don't see anything in it that makes me think she actually changed her mind on this.



She thinks you made a good point about including me but she's promptly forgotten this and decided to push me without examining who I am supposed to be allied to on her original coalition.



like how does it make sense for her to think I'm scum with NK15? like sure maybe he's semi-gamethrowing by tunneling his partner for the lulz but like I kind of pointed out his meta so I'd be gamethrowing too? also this contradicts previous point she thought that I am allied with someone already in the coalition.



and when NK15 votes me (this really should be kind of expected because he's been tunneling me all game for garbage reasons) - she seems surprised? Which is kind of ????? because in her original post about voting me she is basically pegging the scum team as me/nk15 which makes sense due to his meta of derptunneling his teammate so why is she even asking him why he's voting for me ???

[fireisredsir]

ok yes i know i am not as good at scum as some people here

but that was actually my point, like i think that her making a somewhat weak kneejerk reactionary push on you and then backing off actually makes it harder for her to shape the game-state towards mis-eliminating townies because

1) it weakens her position as a universal townread and as a town leader
2) it somewhat discredits any later pushes she makes in the same direction since you can easily push back on it and gives you more control
3) it's not likely to be immediately successful, there's still a lot of day left to play

if you think that her actions so far this phase have meaningfully advanced the gamestate toward a goal of eliminating you and remaining as a town leader afterwards then tbh i think you're misreading the gamestate. i think they've done the opposite if anything

i think that if scum skitter were to push you she would do it more methodically and logically build it up. that's my point.

[fireisredsir]

maybe the response is just "she thought it would work out and it didn't" but idk again my impression of scum skitter is that she is not that impulsive and plans things out better than that

[Aristeia]

if you think that her actions so far this phase have meaningfully advanced the gamestate toward a goal of eliminating you and remaining as a town leader afterwards then tbh i think you're misreading the gamestate. i think they've done the opposite if anything

I mean she doesn't know how the push will go before she makes it?

like everything involves risk. You're townreading her for her push failing. This is kind of similar to Prism trying to push me and getting shoved back and doing a reflexive stepback.

Mafia do not know which pushes will work when they try them - they can only make an educated guess and try their best.

[Save The Dragons]

i feel adrift and lost now

Why?

i feel it's hard to get my voice heard in this pl but i dunno if what i've said is worth anything

[Datisi]

i am trying to make art but the fact that this game exists is giving me anxiety so i will instead try to write out what i was planning to write earlier

[fireisredsir]

if you think that her actions so far this phase have meaningfully advanced the gamestate toward a goal of eliminating you and remaining as a town leader afterwards then tbh i think you're misreading the gamestate. i think they've done the opposite if anything

I mean she doesn't know how the push will go before she makes it?

like everything involves risk. You're townreading her for her push failing. This is kind of similar to Prism trying to push me and getting shoved back and doing a reflexive stepback.

Mafia do not know which pushes will work when they try them - they can only make an educated guess and try their best.

i guess so, i did think of prism briefly. i still think the situation is different since prism knew she was always going to get eliminated at some point that game, and skitter at the start of this phase was the most widely townread player. it seems like more risk than is necessary for not much reward, compared to making a more logical and methodical push

i also do not think that she would have much expectation of a knee jerk reaction to coalition failure as being a push that would work out. i think the main potential benefit to it is looking town, but that's unnecessary when almost everyone already thinks she's town

[Aristeia]

I feel bad about giving you anxiety : (