Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[bloodhail]

i am 89% confident aristeia is town after finishing reading her iso

in particular her approach to the conflict between my slot and menalque just desnt seem scummy to me - while i

could

see her as scum capitulating to elim irrelephant because thats the easy way out i dunno that she lampshades the thing as tvt as mafia, just feels like putting th cart before the horse too much, if shes trying to murder a town i expect her to just do it rather than set up for day 3 or w/e

Seems scummy to me

from me or from her? going to need a little elaboration

(1) i don't read games closely after i die in them
(2) from what i remember in that game, there was an ongoing bus between your slot and gl so it made sense to continue it. if you're replacing into a shitty situation here or if your partner would be likely to go down after you, you can't play the same way
(3) you're a much better scum player than needed for the "i would always play the same way in x situation" to work

point is my slot was marked for death because i replaced a hydra that flaked, so i just rolled over and died because it wasnt worth expending the effort and giving away associatives

herre not necessarily the same but im likely always poe and never escaping it and to that end my goal would be setting up associatives for my partner to win off of, most likely

thing is as a town replace in im unburdened by having to guard any secrets or work toward a goal so i can just generate reads freely and quickly


dunno you reflexively going to suggesting this is scummy from me rather than figuring out if im incorrect just feels like a scum response to me

[bloodhail]

I dont think bloodhail's done anything particularly townie (esp. for him ) since repping in

I still kinda think that slot's the scum
With quite a lot of paranoia on ari
And mild-to-moderate amts of paranoia on dats

think irrel was actually quite blatantly town if you view him as someone who strongly believes in his mena scumread and is getting flustered at not getting followed, s'why i took this


but i have precisely 0 objection to getting flipped today if i cant convince people of my worldview, its the best day to do it

[Datisi]

except your partner would win much easier if you get a misyeet or two, and again, if the partner is in a shit position themselves you need a hail mary

saying "you're scum for not trying to figure out if i'm a wrong town" is very funny considering you yourself first said that you have no plans of showing your work, and then you dropped a poe "not trying to find townies" scumread of me so like lol?

[Datisi]

dunno you reflexively going to suggesting this is scummy from me rather than figuring out if im incorrect just feels like a scum response to me

like yeah

i think your read on me being what it is, accompanied with "idk maybe i'm confbiased lol", and townreading skitt and ari for weird and easy reasons in a time where i am probably the most possible alternate flip? yeah it's not a good look from where i'm standing

[bloodhail]

except your partner would win much easier if you get a misyeet or two, and again, if the partner is in a shit position themselves you need a hail mary

saying "you're scum for not trying to figure out if i'm a wrong town" is very funny considering you yourself first said that you have no plans of showing your work, and then you dropped a poe "not trying to find townies" scumread of me so like lol?

i said i'm not doing a iso analysis, cuz this is a gut feelings game from me cuz i dont want to exert too much effort or overanalyze. im here to take it easy (which, i know, is insane but is the only way i could justify this to myself).

none of me going gut/simplistic in my reads rather than doing a big schmancy case with postnum links is preventing you from being able to talk to me. i will try to explain stuff as best as i can when asked. the fact you act like i am closing the door to discussion rather than you actively not trying to find me as town is ?????

[bloodhail]

dunno you reflexively going to suggesting this is scummy from me rather than figuring out if im incorrect just feels like a scum response to me

like yeah

i think your read on me being what it is, accompanied with "idk maybe i'm confbiased lol", and townreading skitt and ari for weird and easy reasons in a time where i am probably the most possible alternate flip? yeah it's not a good look from where i'm standing

ok then vote me

[Datisi]

i said i think your characterization of my play is wrong

you went "no, actually" and that was that

like excuse me for getting the idea that you were not planning to actually talk to me

[Datisi]

like 2019 is a post that just screams "i am open for a conversation about my reads with you"

[skitter30]

from me or from her? going to need a little elaboration

ari

[bloodhail]

i said i think your characterization of my play is wrong

you went "no, actually" and that was that

like excuse me for getting the idea that you were not planning to actually talk to me

i dont know how willing i am to get into the nitty gritty of this given my stated desire to not expend too much energy (sure, call this a cop out, whatever)

but i think if i went that route it's ultimately going to boil down to "here's what i see in your day 1 play with posts and reasons" and you go "well i disagree"

and i don't think that gets us anywhere

[skitter30]

i feel like this is a little unfair since you can't actually explain it since you aren't him
but i'm somewhat worried of the timing of irrel's backtrack on mena: when it looked like he/mena were going to go 1-2 in either order.
to me, i'm reading that a bit like he realized he's gonna die soon and needs to find a way to de-escalate and find another person to push

if you can share @bloodhail what you think was particularly townie abt irrel that would be appreciated

and i guess if it isn't you/him i'm kinda at a loss where i want to go
i feel v confident it isn't mena
otherwise idk

also i'm a little hmmmm? on your read on me

[Save The Dragons]

but again you actually took the time to talk to me about it so i appreciate it it's datisi and skitter who have just ignored all attempts irrel and i had to make cases against mena and who the hell knows where NK15 is at

i responded last night

apologies for missing this

[bloodhail]

i feel like this is a little unfair since you can't actually explain it since you aren't him
but i'm somewhat worried of the timing of irrel's backtrack on mena: when it looked like he/mena were going to go 1-2 in either order.
to me, i'm reading that a bit like he realized he's gonna die soon and needs to find a way to de-escalate and find another person to push

if you can share @bloodhail what you think was particularly townie abt irrel that would be appreciated

will try when i have time although i have like 3 different things to address now and attempting to towncase my slot is probably the least important, you know?

and i guess if it isn't you/him i'm kinda at a loss where i want to go
i feel v confident it isn't mena
otherwise idk

i mean: kill me and then maybe give consideration to my own read? just a thought

also i'm a little hmmmm? on your read on me

i can feel the jealousy

[bloodhail]

from me or from her? going to need a little elaboration

ari

okay so, i dunno how much i wanna drill down into the ari read in particular but: if ari is mafia who do you think has the potential to be her partner, because fmpov there aren't a lot of likely possibilities

[bloodhail]

Spoiler: datisi's posts about skitter

At eod tho, again, my point goes back to u wanting dats/yourself over std, and that's where my suspicions are stemming from, as that's the point if difference in my mind, and nof really what i wanted, and i very strongly consider him town

this is something that i wanna circle back to later but the tl;dr is that i went though skitt/ari interactions and there were a lot of posts from skitter where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

so the immediate pushback on d2 how this is not what skitter wanted and she is so frustrated that this isn't the coalition she wanted when she pretty much spent more time hinting at being fine with ari being in the coalition and saying how she's not really pushing her own coalition or not playing that hard feels a bit Off

attempting to analyze skitter's coalition preferences and pushes, starting from page 24:

page 24 is the first time ari offers to sheep skitter. 591 is skitt having a preference of skitt/dats/irrel/std/mena, idk who to go after if that fails. then we figure out the deadline is not as short, ok cool there's more time.

but yeah i guess i'll go through the thought experiment:

ari agreeing to be left out of a coalition of me/irrel/mena/std/dats
means it doesn't make sense for her to be scum with fire/mala/nk15

tbh i don't see anything impossible for ari + any of irrel/mena/std/dats

this is the next relevant post in the skitt/ari discussion - where skitter says it doesn't make sense for ari to be scum with a "lower-rated" player but does with a "higher-rated" player (you know what i mean)

Probably still you but apparently i relish paranoia and indecision
I.e. i'm still not confident on a 5th yet, if i had to pick one would probably be you but still not confident enuf to settle on that if that makes sense

I will probably get over this closer to deadline

next relevant post - skitter says she still prefers skitt/dats/irrel/std/mena, with me being lowest confidence

next relevant post...

i think if ari is scum she's likely scum with someone who is already in, and so there is very little utility to leaving her out

... honestly this is a p good point

Tbh the more I think abt it from this pov i'm not entirelu opposed to putting ari in
(On the condition that if it fails and she doesnt, like, solve the game she gets flipped before elo)

is skitter saying how fire has a point in his analysis and basically saying she could maybe sorta put ari into the coalition.

Mala do u have any response to my posts towards u on the prior page?

I'm leaning towards me/mena/irrel/std + one of ari/dats/fire rn

again, this is like, not showing a huge preference on which person gets added as the 5th.

And then i guess i kinda vibe with fire's point that if ari is scum its probably with someone in the consensus coalition anyways, so i'm no longer entirely opposed

I guess i dont object to putting ari in but i'd want her to go in with dats, and i want the condition to be that if its elo and she hasnt found all the scum, she gets flipped
Otherwise i probably want dats in

i cut this post a bit but the important part is that skitter was decently fine with ari being in a coalition, mostly due to fire's arguments

I think if you want to be the leader here you should put the reads you feel confident in.

I have a lot of thoughts about Dats and I'm not sure how helpful it will be for you to read them but I can write them down if you want me to.

I'm not confident I can find scum!him.

I mean i dont think i indicated i wanted to be a leader here at all >.> my reads arent confident enuf , and its not like i'm strongly pushing a given coalition either

And if ur not confident in dats either idk if i want to pit him in, but then it's hard for me to find a confident fifth

this is the next relevant post, where ari is nudging skitter to be a leader, and she openly says that she doesn't want to be the leader, she's not feeling confident enough, she's not strongly pushing, etc

1038 is a hmm post to me because i felt like std was viable at the time and the fact that she was going "is std viable? no? i guess i can remove him..." is Concerning

I think he knows I'm very hard to mis-eliminate so putting me into a coalition really is limiting his own mislim opportunities and making it harder for himself post-coalition failure and I'm not sure why he would want to do that? It really does feel like he wants a coalition that will work.

Ty for writing that all out, i appreciate it

I think the above is a cogent point + there's quite a lot of depth/nuance here that i had to ask for (i.e. it doesnt seem like a read that you made up to share to look Nuanced, its more just something internally that youu were wresting with that you shared when i asked), which makes me think its more likely real

this is a kind of a townread of ari

I still reallh want me/mena/irrel/std but alas we cannot all have the things we want

this is i think the last time skitter commented how much she wants the coalition, but immediately notes it's most likely not happening.

then it's mena appearing, the hammer, coalition failure, etc.

Me/mena/irrel/std

Ok so is this a viable core, and if yes, who should the fifth be?

we're all just guessing it's fine it's just a game

don't stress skitts pls let's make this a very low key and fun thing : )

I mean this is what i was pushing for a few days, you never seemed interested, and when i directly asked you this is what u answered

I also asked u directly about std a few posts down and you told me you wanted dats over him

this is what she says shortly after d2 starts.

and like, i have problems with her characterizing her posts on a coalition with std as "pushes" because all she did was ask a few times if a core that includes std is ok. like, that's not a push. she wasn't pushing for std to be included, she mentioned a few times that she townreads him (unless i missed it, it wasn't even explained why) and that she doesn't want ari and ari is not her first choice. except she also has so many posts on why she could maybe sorta put ari into the coalition.

so like

mmmm

this feels like "scum hyperfocusing on a thing that is Weird or maybe Contradictory but is not actually scum motivted behavior"

b/c while you can make that point that skitter didn't really try to get std added into the coalition but complained about it afterward


what is the scum motivation in that?


why does it

matter

?

if skitter is scum then

she is the scum in the coalition

and her not doing enough to get STD in is...entirely irrelevant. it does not change the gamestate AT ALL if STD is in coalition or out of coalition in skitter-scum worlds. I would think Datisi is sharp enough to realize this. the idea he posits is that skitter would have done more as town but is really just making the presumption that town always plays optimally or ideally and that's just not true. people are timid sometimes. it does not make them scum. skitter is often indecisive as town. i dont think this is a genuine suspicion on datisis part.

[bloodhail]

ok, i'm reading page 65 and i get this weird feeling of... panic? from irrel's 1606, 1611, 1613. what i mean is,

a good amount of these posts boil down to "things that this person did are weird and do not have obvious town motivation, therefore they come from scum" when i feel like most of experienced players don't use level-zero-logic like that in order to argue their points. or rather, they go through the thought process of "does it actually make sense for scum to do this"

. like, i get that it's not optimal to want to yeet outside the coalition but what does scum!mena gain with that?

heh

[bloodhail]

i just dont get the feeling datisi has really been trying to find who is mafia in the coalition much as i read through the iso

[bloodhail]

yeah i um


kind of think datisi and roden were distancing lol

will feel bad if i'm right and i just blew up their spot because i wanted to be the hero and chat with my fuzzy friends but i can't unsee it


i will get around to answering STD about his read on menalque in a bit

[fireisredsir]

hmm I had datisi and mala marked as explicitly not partners earlier

gonna go see if I can find why I did that

[skitter30]

will try when i have time although i have like 3 different things to address now and attempting to towncase my slot is probably the least important, you know?

that's fair
i do kinda want to read it tho, so if you could find the time for it i would appreciate it, but no worries
even just like 2-3 sentence summary of the key reason or two would be awesome

~

i mean: kill me and then maybe give consideration to my own read? just a thought

i mean if you end up being town i certainly would

~

i can feel the jealousy

not sure what u mean by this?
i'm a little concerned that the read on me is somewhat flat and easy

~

okay so, i dunno how much i wanna drill down into the ari read in particular but: if ari is mafia who do you think has the potential to be her partner, because fmpov there aren't a lot of likely possibilities

dats-roden-nk15 with some paranoia on u

~

if skitter is scum then she is the scum in the coalition and her not doing enough to get STD in is...entirely irrelevant. it does not change the gamestate

AT ALL if STD is in coalition or out of coalition in skitter-scum worlds.

I would think Datisi is sharp enough to realize this. the idea he posits is that skitter would have done more as town but is really just making the presumption that town always plays optimally or ideally and that's just not true. people are timid sometimes. it does not make them scum. skitter is often indecisive as town. i dont think this is a genuine suspicion on datisis part.

tbf i was also kinda ???? about the purpose of dats' questioning since i don't think it really seemed scum-motivated at all
but i also didn't realize the bolded

[fireisredsir]

i do agree that datisi's skitter suspicion is kinda weak reasoning but like

i don't think its even top 3 weakest reasoning for a suspicion

mena alone holds 2 of those spots

[fireisredsir]

hmm I had datisi and mala marked as explicitly not partners earlier

gonna go see if I can find why I did that

i think maybe it was the way that mala was fighting to get datisi out of the coalition near the end of phase when she was already being left out

ig the counterpoints are:
- she didn't have much sway anyway since a lot of people scumread her
- maybe there wasn't much chance for datisi to be left out at that point? idk I thought it was still possible since skitter didn't really want him in and she was kinda given the role of coalition leader
- as soon as the coalition fails she switches to townreading datisi and voting mena which is kinda hmm

[Aristeia]

you make me feel

like I matter

you do

[skitter30]

<3 ari

[fireisredsir]

dats-roden-nk15 with some paranoia on u

i don't think ari is partners with nk or roden/mala unless you believe that her asking to be left out alongside them was a gambit

but i think people were p down to roll with it and she seemed happy with that