Mewbie 2094 -- GAME OVER

[syugar]

The post I was responding to was when you said was that in 3 man elo with Luke+catboi+Bella, kill Luke.

oh yeah, i agree with myself then

u tr catboi so i dont see how u find it unreasonable, altho in a perfect world id be able to elim both u and bella

[Lukewarm]

the disconnect between some of your statements today and your supposedly very insightful townread on catboi is giving me whiplash

What does this even mean.

I am scum because I have a good reason to town read catboi, who you also think is town?

I am scum because I thought that scum would no kill here?

You somehow think that me town reading catboi but thinking scum might no kill are somehow incompatible from a town pov?

[Lukewarm]

otoh i just skimmed a towngame of urs and didnt see any posts close to looking like this

Like this seems to be the only thing that would have changed to push your read from one way to the other.

I need you to put some more words to this.

What game did you read in that time? What about that post are you saying never existed in that game?

I still want answers to these questions

given what you just said, does this mean that you don't think that I would have "insightful town reads" as town? Or that I would have them as scum?

[Lukewarm]

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

[catboi]

My gut reaction is to omgus catboi, but also because he seems to have that angle to push me ready to go, when for all we knew there was not going to be a kill.

Actually, I don't know that scum!boi would be so blatant with it tho?

I don't particularly see what's so surprising about it, I correctly anticipated cat.jpeg was town yesterday based on how they were posting. A no-kill was extraordinarily unlikely as doing so is mechanically suboptimal for mafia - it raises the chances they'll get jailed again. Also removes T02 as a clear when he's shown he can be strong-willed and independent minded. Was more or less the anticipated conclusion and I'd developed a feeling overnight it might be you, had read into ISOs to check that. Will get into detail but as previously stated the paranoia from syugar and bella had begun to feel believable to me and it meant I had to re-examine you

Obviously if there

had

been a no-kill I would have mentally re-adjusted

Well I know who's entrance to today I like more!

Shrug, I'm not writing my posts to get townread, the game finally opened at approcimately 1:30 AM my time and I wanted to make a post before I went to sleep

[syugar]

the disconnect between some of your statements today and your supposedly very insightful townread on catboi is giving me whiplash

What does this even mean.

I am scum because I have a good reason to town read catboi, who you also think is town?

I am scum because I thought that scum would no kill here?

You somehow think that me town reading catboi but thinking scum might no kill are somehow incompatible from a town pov?

i feel like some of ur more insightful analysis seems like tmi in that u have considered it far more than other things

[syugar]

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

some open in ur post history i forgot

none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough

[syugar]

i.e. ur post on catboi today seems like you started w. the assumption he is town and drew some of your own dots to connect to get there, dots strong enough to justify tring him over the two jks in ur own eyes

[syugar]

and it just flatly doesnt make sense either because theres no reason or him to coordinate it such that he and his teammate agree on massclaims in the thread in a world where hes scum, it seems almost completely irrelevant

[Lukewarm]

A no-kill was extraordinarily unlikely as doing so is mechanically suboptimal for mafia - it raises the chances they'll get jailed again.

I guess we were just thinking about it differently.

I saw people comment on the no kill possibility, and I thought that that might just happen

Spoiler:

Although I don't see the point of calling who I'm jaling. Maf could just do a no kill on purpose and have us elim bella

For the record I'm fine with being jailed because im either cleared or theres a no-kill. I would prefer Bella but whatever.

I still don't know that it would have been entirely mechanically suboptimal. Seems to me that the scum would have had to decide wheather it was more likely that they could lead 2 miselims in a row in [catboi, bella, syugar, me] and since we get to kill 2 of those names, it is a 50% chance that they are voted out.

OR that T02 would hit them the following night when he had 4 options (25%) and then won the 1 scum vs 2 unconfirmed townies at melo. Which is a 47.5% chance they are either jailed or voted out.

I did not run the math before just now, but they were both pretty close to 50/50 with no kill actually slightly ahead.

[Lukewarm]

and it just flatly doesnt make sense either because theres no reason or him to coordinate it such that he and his teammate agree on massclaims in the thread in a world where hes scum, it seems almost completely irrelevant

That line of thinking started from me yesterday thinking that the scum would not want the mass claim to happen because they would have likely been worried that who ever did their kill was jailkept, and that the jailkeeper could out a guilty on one of them.

[Lukewarm]

I did not run the math before just now, but they were both pretty close to 50/50 with no kill actually slightly ahead.

I actually think that I ran that math not quite right.

I think that they would be identical.

They lost 25% (either in this 1 out of 4 or by being jailed 1 out of 4)

Then, if they pass that, they are in a 1v2 at either elo or melo

[syugar]

and it just flatly doesnt make sense either because theres no reason or him to coordinate it such that he and his teammate agree on massclaims in the thread in a world where hes scum, it seems almost completely irrelevant

That line of thinking started from me yesterday thinking that the scum would not want the mass claim to happen because they would have likely been worried that who ever did their kill was jailkept, and that the jailkeeper could out a guilty on one of them.

that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers

most likely they went to attack a consensus town slot, they would have no way of guessing whether or not they thought the person who did the kill was jailkept

even if (me/bella, i forget, whichever of these would have been assigned the kill) was jailkept n1 it's perfectly plausible that it was a save from a kill so they would have no reason to be so paranoid about a massclaim

massclaiming is actually beneficial to them in that situation because they can start knocking the PRs off, especially if this setup isn't an option

[syugar]

is an option*

[syugar]

I did not run the math before just now, but they were both pretty close to 50/50 with no kill actually slightly ahead.

I actually think that I ran that math not quite right.

I think that they would be identical.

They lost 25% (either in this 1 out of 4 or by being jailed 1 out of 4)

Then, if they pass that, they are in a 1v2 at either elo or melo

hmm

u are right actually

[catboi]

@catboi, why Luke over syugae? Considering your reaction to the hammer.

My reaction was panicky at that moment in time because I'd had a vague unease about him throughout the day in how he was gunning for Cat.jpeg over goodmorning and strongly disliked the fact that he hammered when I'd requested waiting for T02.

something about the acerbic snapback of eliminating me if he was cleared by the jailer rang true to me, possible I was overthinking it but meh. I'm not sure day 3 makes a ton of sense as coordinated strategy between syugar and gm and I felt on a read back I wasn't sure if their interactions were partnery. I'll get into it in a bit.

[syugar]

yeah i got kinda butthurt there not gon lie

[catboi]

classic game where I'm onto scum early then talk myself out of it for 2 days

VOTE: lukewarm

I did a little rereading during the night. I think my reasons for un-aligning him with goodmorning were poor in hindsight. I think that both jailkeeper targets were plausibly saves, and I think both displayed a believable level of paranoia yesterday that is more likely to come from town.

not gonna lie im closer to voting bella than this lmao

alright i'm done reading, i've been finding mafia stupider and stupider of a pastime in the past week so i'm not going to put a lot of effort into this

VOTE: Lukewarm

e-1

uhhh....okay?

[Lukewarm]

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

some open in ur post history i forgot

none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough

that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers

I don't believe this.

I don't believe that you have read a single game of mine and come to the conclusion that once I start making cases, this isnt how I approach them. If anything this is tame, and very par for the course for my cases.

[catboi]

UNVOTE:

[syugar]

Specifically what game did you read.

What about that post were you looking for in that game that you say you didnt see?

some open in ur post history i forgot

none of your reads were as empathetically specific or comprehensive as uve been doing this game so i decided it was good enough

that also doesn't make sense and doesn't seem like a towny thought process, you're assuming 3 chess moves in advance in a game of checkers

I don't believe this.

I don't believe that you have read a single game of mine and come to the conclusion that once I start making cases, this isnt how I approach them. If anything this is tame, and very par for the course for my cases.

ok

[catboi]

it's been a hot day and I have had a hard time focusing. My issue with luke had been that he had seemingly consistently had goodmorning in his POE but had always found reason to vote and push somewhere else. More than a little squinting and frowning at syugar's posts today, though.

[catboi]

? You spent a lot of time yesterday implying you wanted to move the elim off GM onto cat, and then made this post. If, as maf, you knew you were going to kill to2, then you knew you'd get a cat inno, and then your mis elim of me is set up. It's even more flaggy as I was your lock town at one point.

If you are scum, it's a shame because I am actually thinking/reacting like Luke a lot. I had the same nk thought as he did, but you react to it (either organically or inorganically) with ????

It basically leaves me with you or catboi as an option.

P-edit I haven't read that.

shrug

i had seen everyone alive being paired with gm as fairly impossible

because the scumteam played well, the exception being catjpeg who had a dearth of interactions with gm although in hindsight that also didn't make sense

was gonna have to go back to the drawing board regardless, can't treat any reads i've been sliding on as sacred

killing no one to get cat jpeg elimed is a pretty suboptimal move on its face, interest or reaction doesn't look genuine, but i'm not really basing my vote off of that

When we had discussedthis before you had said there was no reason to rule out bella/gm, is there a reason your opinion on that changed?

[syugar]

When we had discussedthis before you had said there was no reason to rule out bella/gm, is there a reason your opinion on that changed?

i reread bella's d1 where she referred to gm as "not towntelling compared to a previous game" and saying that she hated gm's response to my accusation at the beginning of d1 when i was prodding her

seems kinda risky to do as partners because it'd probably encourage me to snowball my slight suspicions into some sort of thunderdome, and rereading some other game i came to see her interacting with gm again and it felt contextually right

[syugar]

tbf though i was also half sponging you because i've lost patience for this game and have been wrong 4 times in a row so i dont even know, im just hoping townreading you is enough at this point