Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Rhyme and Reason]

I mean, I'm kind of coming round to you being town now after looking at your ISO again Cakez (plus S_S thinks you're town) but I had some pretty bad desire to kill you yesterday and that was definitely part of it, so I don't think Luke is crazy for thinking along the same lines

~Rhyme

You can think I'm scum but I hate that Luke is using me being correct about my Lavar read as the reason because it's like saying that I wasn't actually good enough to have just read Lavar correctly

I don't think that's what Luke was saying, but I won't put words into his mouth. I thought his point was that your level of confidence seemed hella high on Lavar!town given what Lavar had done.

I wasn't sold on Lavar scum, but I couldn't see what you were getting from him that was making you so confident (in how your posts came across) that your read was right. I don't think that means that he or I think your reads are bad, but there's a difference between having good reads and having confident reads, and the confidence level was the problematic thing.

So for me it wasn't disbelief that you could be right on Lavar -- it's that standing against a wagon with not that much evidence to back what you're saying seems scummy, especially when you turn out to be right, because scum who

know

what a flip is going to be can sometimes-to-often present themselves as being very confident in order to leverage being right into getting the pushes they want on future days. I've done it myself in the past ("no, you all need to shut up and listen to me because I was right on X on Day Y and you were all wrong and now I'm telling you Z is scum so we're fucking flipping them today because I have good reads and y'all don't" <- only more subtle)

~Rhyme

[Val89]

^ My opinion is similar, except I explicitly acknowledged the confidence on that read may well come from the fact you are a much better player.

But then, I see posts like 1309, and the fact you aren't reading me right pushes me to believe it's because you

knew

Lavar was town.

[Fey]

I’m struggling to word this but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to think a dead person’s scumreads are clearing; there is always the potential to be shot at night the same way you can be tracked/copped/etc, but like.

For LLD specifically I’m willing for now to accept that Bell is cleared for now by virtue of his actions. Sure. Bell was one of the people she suspected and did so with more... interaction? To it. Oomph. I think it is perhaps reasonable to assume she would have shot Bell... a town clearing PR.

But why exactly in this situation would a mafia Dwlee be cleared?? Like everyone’s kind of hand waving it imo. “Cleared because scumread” is such an insane thought process to me even factoring in the mechanics.

Also because “clearing” LLD’s scumreads narrows down the POE for a wagon that flipped town D1 and that is...???

[gorilla]

^ My opinion is similar, except I explicitly acknowledged the confidence on that read may well come from the fact you are a much better player.

But then, I see posts like 1309, and the fact you aren't reading me right pushes me to believe it's because you

knew

Lavar was town.

"you're reading me wrong so you're scum" is not exactly the most convincing of cases.

[Fey]

Like to me this is indulging a bit in WIFOM I guess which, nose wrinkle, but everyone is kind of just going “yep they’re alllll cleared” and isn’t that... a risk worth taking for mafia if they can feel confident they won’t get shot, let alone any role that could protect people from a shot/stop it/etc?

[Fey]

Like if anyone has a ~really strong towncase~ or something for Dwlee I’d actually appreciate it versus just giving the pass for reasons I don’t think are strong. Meuh gave some at day start but I didn’t find it compelling.

[Fey]

Also it’s pretty hurtful even though it shouldn’t be to be told that because I don’t come to the same conclusions that I am... not trying to apply my logic even if it goes against the logic being seen as “correct” which is uh, perhaps why I might seem upsetish right now.

[gorilla]

I’m struggling to word this but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to think a dead person’s scumreads are clearing; there is always the potential to be shot at night the same way you can be tracked/copped/etc, but like.

For LLD specifically I’m willing for now to accept that Bell is cleared for now by virtue of his actions. Sure. Bell was one of the people she suspected and did so with more... interaction? To it. Oomph. I think it is perhaps reasonable to assume she would have shot Bell... a town clearing PR.

But why exactly in this situation would a mafia Dwlee be cleared?? Like everyone’s kind of hand waving it imo. “Cleared because scumread” is such an insane thought process to me even factoring in the mechanics.

Also because “clearing” LLD’s scumreads narrows down the POE for a wagon that flipped town D1 and that is...???

I'm not really close to clearing dwlee, I'm just not sure they're who I want to wagon right away today based on the nightkill. I do think it's notable that I townread everyone but you on their wagon but that in and of itself doesn't make me want to kill them right away. I'd rather see what they have to say today.

[fireisredsir]

Since when am I sheeping? I already said Enchant's vote prompted me to reevaluate you, and I drew my own conclusions from there. For you to be this dismissive of it all is odd.

this quote kinda sounds like sheeping, no?

The reasoning for marci being scum seems rather tenuous to me. Of course maybe I'm just too dumb to understand it. That happens a lot.

Gorilla/Marci S/S?

VOTE: Gorilla
I'm willing to try this out Enchant, don't let me down

like yea you went and found your own reasons but i think it's weird not to acknowledge that you were def following enchant on this. the "don't let me down" specifically, like yea it could be joking, but it still is jokingly or not clearly putting some level of responsibility for your own vote onto enchant

for the record i don't really find that suspicious on its own (although i do think gorilla is right that it looks like you just went and found reasons to suspect rather than actually having a suspicion form naturally), but i do think your response to being accused of sheeping feels slightly off given the original context

[Val89]

"you're reading me wrong so you're scum" is not exactly the most convincing of cases.

"You are reading me wrong when you managed read Lavar (who appeared was being treated very similarly to me) correctly with an huge degree of confidence, so you're more likely scum than a player with excellent reads in these circumstances" is convincing, at least for me.

[Fey]

(Yes whatever random “AtE” but whether or not people agree with me I think it is just bad to clear on night kills alone and basically just feels like an entire aspect of why people die is being thrown out entirely.)

[Rhyme and Reason]

Fwiw Fey I was arguing with Mena about that. I didn't think that you had anything to gain as scum by pushing an angle you knew was illogical. (Meaning that regardless of your alignment you are in fact applying logic you actually believe in, at least to some extent.) This was before your latest string of posts on the matter, I could

maybe

see you committing to the bit as scum to try to keep a Dwlee mislim on the table, though I'm not sure if that's characteristic of your scumgame-- could you weigh in on that?

That said, I do think that NKA can be pretty powerful when done right, all the more so when scum don't see it coming. I haven't actually reread LLD's ISO to figure out how telegraphed a Dwlee invictus was, but if it was extremely telegraphed, I think that definitely is a point in Dwlee's favor.

-Reason

[Fey]

A Bell one was more telegraphed imho given her final posts which put more meat to the idea she disliked his posting versus a vote on Dwlee. Also that she had voted Bell before.

I do actually think though this might be more emblematic of my mafia game funnily enough because on Ydrasse I’m pretty go with the flow-y and throw thoughts out there but don’t try to do as much as I do here whereas as scum I am almost always doing something.

Maybe this is just a more lowkey FFXIV for me or something. But shrug I do t think that I can offer more than self rambling without back checking my games.

[fireisredsir]

Who here is familiar with lld? Because given how little she'd done so far, I think that kill is much more likely to come from someone who knows her reputation. Here, the main names that occur to me are gorilla/dunn/Bell/Baltar/Cakez. Bell is clear, seemingly, so that leaves me with a likely scum in (gorilla/dunn/Cakez).

this seems extremely narrow to me in an odd way. LLD is a fairly known player on site, ive never played with her and yet i know her reputation. i would be surprised if other people in this game who have been around longer than i have don't have that same experience. why not Fey, dwlee, even luke, or VP/gamma (i remember VP and gamma talking to LLD in the signup thread in a familiar way)? and at that point you're at 9 names and saying that there is most likely to be 1 scum in 9 people is... not super useful. of course it's actually 10, but it makes sense that you would exclude yourself

the main point though is how you managed to narrow that list down to those 3 or 4. given no further explanation as to why certain names were excluded, it seems intentional

[gorilla]

"you're reading me wrong so you're scum" is not exactly the most convincing of cases.

"You are reading me wrong when you managed read Lavar (who appeared was being treated very similarly to me) correctly with an huge degree of confidence, so you're more likely scum than a player with excellent reads in these circumstances" is convincing, at least for me.

That's pretty bad logic. Someone can be right on one player but wrong on another. It happens all the time. People just have different perspectives.

I'm leaning towards Bell/Marci/Dwlee being less likely scum

marcistar

- Hmm... I need to reread but honestly I can't say I feel good about her at this point. Idk

I need to reread (Marci, VPB, Gamma, Dunn)

@Meuh -

Can you explain what caused your read on marci to shift? You had her as town through the end of day 1 and seemed to very suddenly decide you didn't feel good about her.

[Meuh]

"you're reading me wrong so you're scum" is not exactly the most convincing of cases.

"You are reading me wrong when you managed read Lavar (who appeared was being treated very similarly to me) correctly with an huge degree of confidence, so you're more likely scum than a player with excellent reads in these circumstances" is convincing, at least for me.

That's pretty bad logic. Someone can be right on one player but wrong on another. It happens all the time. People just have different perspectives.

I'm leaning towards Bell/Marci/Dwlee being less likely scum

marcistar

- Hmm... I need to reread but honestly I can't say I feel good about her at this point. Idk

I need to reread (Marci, VPB, Gamma, Dunn)

@Meuh -

Can you explain what caused your read on marci to shift? You had her as town through the end of day 1 and seemed to very suddenly decide you didn't feel good about her.

A good bit of the reasoning would be against the rules to bring up which is meh
Otherwise Lavar flipping town makes my thoughts on yesterday’s wagons a bit different. Plus Marci’s posts today particularly struck me as seemingly fake and not actually scumhunting. (Also I’ll be honest, I found a good bit of the day 1 push against Marci boring and I didn’t really sink my teeth into it properly, I hadn’t really thought about her alignment that hard)

[Enchant]

I think i should say, that Enchant.Co not responsibality for any frustration, deaths or demon summons happened due any manipulation with Enchant.Co vote, including "Sheeping", "Accepting" and "Ignoring".

[gorilla]

A good bit of the reasoning would be against the rules to bring up which is meh

*sigh* Okay. I found it bizarre how your read suddenly turned but you weren't really pressuring her in a significant way, and were using it to go after me instead. I thought I might have been on to something, but...probably not.

[Kovu]

ok hold up, can someone explain more on why LLD kill clears Dwlee? I'm genuinely not understanding this, like why is Dwlee clear now?

[Kovu]

I could maybe see you committing to the bit as scum to try to keep a Dwlee mislim on the table

SS, do you care to tell us why a Dwlee lim is off the table? like, have you seen LLD's ISO... if anything a kill would suggest she TRed maf, they felt safe. but she didn't really out a single read. LLD is a strong player, I think scum decided to kill her before she could actually make reads, which is how we have a dead datisi, this is the 2nd time you've been all "Dwlee is CLEAR" like, there's no explanation with it... LLD got killed cause she's good, simple as that, I'm universal tr, but I've been SRing you all game, and surprise I'm not dead, you know I've been invictus'ing you...

also this whole SS/Fey conversation feels like partners talking to me.. cause earlier SS was telling me like to be more cautious about my TR there, but when he's talking to fey, he's actively not SRing Fey? idk how to explain it, but this interaction feels like partners, SS killed LLD thinking dwlee is clear or something, idk!! like, why are we claearing the 2nd wagon yesterday that happened at the end?

[Val89]

Kovu, I think if you are going to continue to push RR here, you should explain why you are discounting what Mala said in 1252 and 1276.

That is sufficient for me to treat both those slots as town, at least for the day.

[Kovu]

@Kovu:

Both RR & I aren’t scum. Time will tell~

val. are you freaking kidding me right now... I have given my case, I'm taking this game as seriously as I can. mala isn't doing crap, so at first I wasn't even gonna click a post cause until mala starts actually playing the game I'm not interacting, but then I was like, maybe I'll click one... you think this game is a joke?

@Mafia my invictus shot is staying on RR all game. Do with that info what you want.

[Val89]

Kovu, are you fucking kidding ME right now?

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Meuh

[Lukewarm]

we can boogie with this while we're figuring shit out

VOTE: gorilla

Who here is familiar with lld? Because given how little she'd done so far, I think that kill is much more likely to come from someone who knows her reputation. Here, the main names that occur to me are gorilla/dunn/Bell/Baltar/Cakez. Bell is clear, seemingly, so that leaves me with a likely scum in (gorilla/dunn/Cakez).

I also don't like Fey's entrance today. Not sure it's necessarily a scum entrance, but I think her conclusions about Invictus and where scum kill is almost 180 on what it should be. Namely: I think that the harder someone who eats the NK is SRing someone, the more likely that person is to be town due to the high chance of them using their Invictus on scum if they're right, and how devastating that could be for the scum team within a couple of nights.

Related to that thought, I think that it's decently clearing for dwlee that lld was the kill, and I wouldn't support another wagon there again today. I think, related to this, that there may well have been scum hopping to his wagon at EoD to try and maintain one of them (competing wagons theory) for a kill later on. I'm not sure exactly who it is yet, though.

~Rhyme

~Rhyme

I feel like a lot of this playerlist would know lld at least by reputation.

I've played several games with her, I know Marci has. Then your list, and you. And kovu made posts that seemed familiar. I feel like ydra would, but that one is a guess.