Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Dwlee99]

But if Gammagooey was scum surely they'd know that LLD was the nightkill and therefore Datisi was the invictus, which is why it's a town slip

It was already discussed in the thread though. If you're using that logic, you should apply it to whoever was the first confused person (which I don't recall off the top of my head).

I also just think that's such an easy thing to fake it's kind of pointless, but you do you

Okay fair

[Lukewarm]

True. We don't need to decide right now.

I was mainly checking to see if you would be nervous signing up to be a part of my mystery pr shenanigans.

I liked your response tbh

This response, though...just feels like he's letting her off too easy? Bleh, bleh, bleh. After suspecting her on the previous page to reverse so easily doesn't sit right with me.

Her response was not scummy, and there was no hint at trying to angle for someone else to be the person I twin with.

I didn't say that it was clearing, or that suddenly I am sure she was town.

Just that I liked her response, and dropping the line about trying to work out a twining target with her seemed fine now that I got her response.

----

What exactly does not sit right with you?

It just feels like it could be pocketing. Like you gave her a little softball questioning and when she answered you said you liked the response so that she's on your good side, you had a little moment talking about your PR and everything

Okay. But, I am town. I mentioned the pr. I am suspicious of marci. Marci is online. Scum!marci sometimes panics when under direct pressure.

I think "I wonder if she will freeze up/try to wiggle out of it if I say i should twin with her and ask a follow up"

I do that

She fairly quickly agrees and makes a suggestion on our target.

Where would you expect me, in that moment to go?

Not sure what other option there really even was other then reveal I was just reaction testing her there.

[Meuh]

For the record, I also believe Lukewarm's claim; one reason being that with the mod saying explicitly that there is EXACTLY ONE role which exceed the guidelines laid out, and for lukewarm to then pontificate they are that exactly one role invites a counterclaim if lukewarm is scum

I think Lukewarm’s claim is real, but the point you’re making here doesn’t work. If one person in the scumteam has that role that exceeds guidelines, any of them can then safely fake-claim it.
All Lukewarm’s claim proves is that one of 2 scenarios are true:
-Luke is town and has the role that goes beyond guidelines
-Luke is scum and someone in the scum team (maybe him) has that special role.

It doesn’t really clear him.

[Val89]

...you do realize the role that exceeded the guidelines in the original game was a scum one, right?

I did not.

The fact there is exactly one means if it is a scum role in this game, that does remove the possibility they get CCd on that basis.

[Lukewarm]

...you do realize the role that exceeded the guidelines in the original game was a scum one, right?

I did not.

The fact there is exactly one means if it is a scum role in this game, that does remove the possibility they get CCd on that basis.

I also did not. Didn't look back at the original game lol

[VP Baltar]

Mala softest hard enough, that she should just out whatever info she has.

No

Well, do tou think mala saying "me and r&r are town" is enough for both mala and r&r to be taken off the table? Because I don't.

I don't. But I also don't think we need to lim either of them today. I think there is enough info leak today, so pushing for more isn't super helpful.

Town players tend to overvalue the info they have in my experience. I've definitely done it! So unless it is an absolute HARD clear we are talking about, such as Bell, we should just table it for now. It's likely more to scum benefit in narrowing the pool of useful town PRs if we give up too much info.

[Val89]

Town players tend to overvalue the info they have in my experience. I've definitely done it!

Who is it you are calling town, here?

[Lukewarm]

I'm struggling to believe that gorilla looks at my play around marci all game, and is ever worried that I am actively trying to pocket her.

VOTE: gorilla


I think it more likely that it is scum not wanting me to write marci off as town and also not wanting me written off as town (added to meuhs point about his reaction to bell)

[gorilla]

I'm struggling to believe that gorilla looks at my play around marci all game, and is ever worried that I am actively trying to pocket her.

VOTE: gorilla


I think it more likely that it is scum not wanting me to write marci off as town and also not wanting me written off as town (added to meuhs point about his reaction to bell)

Okay.

[marcistar]

This is an interesting point, and I'm having trouble believing a lot of marci's reasoning today is genuine. Would absolutely be willing to flip her given potential associations - if she flips scum I'd feel a lot better about Luke. 1418 as a response is incredibly underwhelming - the dismissive tone and brushing it off as "progression behind closed doors" strikes me as scummy - I would figure it would be easy for a town player to lay out the exact thought process behind their read shifting.

open one of my recent towngames and pointnout where i actually lay out good suspisions instead of naked voting someone

ill wait <3

[marcistar]

tbh qhy would scum ever want me to be townread by anyone

ive been such a frequent early on miselim recently, scum prob love that shit

[gorilla]

I could just as easily make the same argument that you're explicitly trying to keep Mala and R&R from being written off as town here, and that's a group with a significantly stronger potential reason for being town than either of you. I also...am not really pushing for eliminating you. Just expressing reasons for skepticism. Because I feel it's important to get that out there.

This is an interesting point, and I'm having trouble believing a lot of marci's reasoning today is genuine. Would absolutely be willing to flip her given potential associations - if she flips scum I'd feel a lot better about Luke. 1418 as a response is incredibly underwhelming - the dismissive tone and brushing it off as "progression behind closed doors" strikes me as scummy - I would figure it would be easy for a town player to lay out the exact thought process behind their read shifting.

open one of my recent towngames and pointnout where i actually lay out good suspisions instead of naked voting someone

ill wait <3

Have you considered...not doing that?

But even with you defense being "that's my meta", should I be townreading you for that here?

tbh qhy would scum ever want me to be townread by anyone

ive been such a frequent early on miselim recently, scum prob love that shit

Why do scum ever defend town? Because it's useful to position themselves as being on the right side of history, and if they take someone's side it's more likely that that person will leap to

their

defense should it ever become necessary. It's not really complicated.

And again, I am not even really out here saying "Lukewarm is obvious mafia for doing this!". I'm just pointing out a single interaction that felt off to me.

[VP Baltar]

Town players tend to overvalue the info they have in my experience. I've definitely done it!

Who is it you are calling town, here?

I'm speaking generally. We are talking about malakittens' implied info about RR in specifics though.

[Rhyme and Reason]

Pedit: why is mala in your town list?

The softing mostly.

Why dwlee, of all people? I don't want to hear about the nightkill, please give me something from their actual posts that is worthy of being a top townread.

No reason, just felt like it.

I've had a quick skim, but unless I missed it, I don't see why Cakez either.

Cakez's D1, in particular his push on my slot, was pretty much exactly what I expect his towngame to look like. I don't know how well he can replicate that, but given that it often gets him into trouble, I wouldn't expect him to make an effort to replicate it as scum? Though of course I'm not totally sure.

1) the only thing I saw in her iso that strongly pointed to a dwlee scum read was a single vote. That's some absolute weak shit to hang your theory on.

How so? If the scumteam are looking to predict who LLD is going to shoot, they have nothing else to go on. I can very easily see a scumteam saying "meh maybe we shouldn't kill LLD, because there's a good chance she shoots Dwlee" based off of that alone. Especially since there are usually several good candidate NK's on N1 in a large, and in my experience it's often little things like that that end up deciding it.

2) no, it doesn't because there are other players on the scum team, as well as other factors to consider, such as scum PRs and how well positioned other scum players are. Saving dwlee, who was wagoned D1, is not a given as a priority.

Not a given, but it has a chance of being a priority. And it has a pretty decent chance of being a pretty high priority, I'd say, because having someone who was wagoned flip scum gives town quite a lot of info.

This post lacks Reason entirely, and I hope you are ashamed. I have no clue why you are trying to push a theory that is demonstrably without significant merit.

I guess you have a different threshold for "significant" than me. I'll call you back when I'm 99% confident on my reads, but I hope you brought a Ouija board.

But if Gammagooey was scum surely they'd know that LLD was the nightkill and therefore Datisi was the invictus, which is why it's a town slip

idk, that's like saying "I think X is scum" is a real or fake townslip, because if they're scum they don't have to guess because they already know whether the person is scum. It's just talking from a town POV, because from a town POV, it's heavily implied but not outright stated that Datisi was the invictus target.

But writing someone off immediately on the basis of a roleclaim is how town loses games.

I guess this is true, but it's never going to be true on day 2. We don't have to say Lukewarm is untouchable for all time when we say they are towny for the time being. (And in general, if someone has claimed a PR and is clearly off the table for a few days, you should keep quiet about your suspicion of them, because if nobody expresses any they will probably just get NK'd eventually.)

If one person in the scumteam has that role that exceeds guidelines, any of them can then safely fake-claim it.

Well yes, but if it's not the person who has said role, and then the person with the role flips, the other one's in hot water.

-Reason

[gorilla]

Why dwlee, of all people? I don't want to hear about the nightkill, please give me something from their actual posts that is worthy of being a top townread.

No reason, just felt like it.

[VP Baltar]

Cakez's D1, in particular his push on my slot, was pretty much exactly what I expect his towngame to look like. I don't know how well he can replicate that, but given that it often gets him into trouble, I wouldn't expect him to make an effort to replicate it as scum? Though of course I'm not totally sure.

I would think you being town would make Cakez look worse in your eyes, given that he would have then pushed you and two confirmed town players (also threw shit at me), all while being wildly overconfident Lavar was town pre-flip. That's a lot of red flags in my book. It's confusing you are reaching an opposite conclusion there without something you feel is absolutely outside his scum range.

[Lukewarm]

Mala softest hard enough, that she should just out whatever info she has.

No

Well, do tou think mala saying "me and r&r are town" is enough for both mala and r&r to be taken off the table? Because I don't.

I don't. But I also don't think we need to lim either of them today.

Baltar, this sure does look like you are saying that you don't think they should be taken off the table, but you also are perfectly happy taking them off the table.

----

Anyways, off the top of my head I could kill:

Cakez, mala, gorilla, dwlee or dunn here I think.

Thinking about who I should twin with - it doesn't actually make sense for it to be any of those people.

I want to twin with Kovu. Kovu can weigh in on who we target tho, and it can be anyone on this list or one of their scum reads so long as it's not an explicit town read of mine

[VP Baltar]

Baltar, this sure does look like you are saying that you don't think they should be taken off the table, but you also are perfectly happy taking them off the table.

Not really. We are talking about two different things. Taking then off the table, to me, is a gamelong decision. What I am saying is they are not my preferred lim choice today, so there is little value in pushing for more info right now.

Fwiw, my preferred lims are very close to your own, with my strongest preference for either Cakez or dwlee.

[gorilla]

I thought about that lukewarm post and this is what bothers me about it - the mindset is very off. I have been a wagon for most of the day. In what world am I possibly trying to keep marci and him from being townread? How is that a realistic or plausible goal for me as scum at all right now? I am highly likly to die before he is. How can he possibly think I have...any chance of discrediting him here as scum? It doesn't add up whatsoever.

[gorilla]

For what it's worth, although the initial wave of votes on me were terrible, I think there's no more than 1 scum in the group (very likely Dunn). Meuh I think is town but wrongly tunneled and looked like town who genuinely believed she had caught on to something. I could be wrong, because scum have incentive to appear "reasonable" when pushing someone and I have a hard time sorting that out, but I think she's far more likely town than not.

[Meuh]

I thought about that lukewarm post and this is what bothers me about it - the mindset is very off. I have been a wagon for most of the day. In what world am I possibly trying to keep marci and him from being townread? How is that a realistic or plausible goal for me as scum at all right now? I am highly likly to die before he is. How can he possibly think I have...any chance of discrediting him here as scum? It doesn't add up whatsoever.

Discrediting other players both makes the wagon on you look less significant and makes you actually look like you're scumhunting. (Something that you've been called out for doing too little of)
I don't really see how it clears you here

[Rhyme and Reason]

I would think you being town would make Cakez look worse in your eyes, given that he would have then pushed you and two confirmed town players (also threw shit at me), all while being wildly overconfident Lavar was town pre-flip. That's a lot of red flags in my book. It's confusing you are reaching an opposite conclusion there without something you feel is absolutely outside his scum range.

It's a meta read. He often makes weird pushes and is overly confident in things as town.

Taking then off the table, to me, is a gamelong decision. What I am saying is they are not my preferred lim choice today, so there is little value in pushing for more info right now.

My understanding is that "taking someone off the table" is a temporary decision, usually for reasons other than townreading them. If you take someone off the table for the whole game, that's just townlocking them. I think this matches with how it's usually used.

-Reason

[marcistar]

Have you considered...not doing that?

But even with you defense being "that's my meta", should I be townreading you for that here?

ive considered it before a few times, but it isnt really fun to take a long time typing up my reasons just for people to not understand it based on how i phrase shit

so explaimimg shit ismt really my thing, im trying my best here th9 cuz i dont wanna embarass myself

i dont expect u to "townread me for it" i expect it to be more like a "meh" moment

[VP Baltar]

He often makes weird pushes and is overly confident in things as town.

Are his reads terrible too? That's not necessarily my experience with Cakez

[fireisredsir]

- R&R, (rhyme specifically, I guess), i was hoping for some sort of response to 1338. can you talk about why you chose those names in particular, and do you still stand by the original point?

- i like 1383 a lot. willing to disregard prior thoughts of scum vp for now. i agree with most of the points in the post which is cool. also the thing with the dumb threat to meuh is exactly the kind of silly blustery stuff i expect to see from town vp, and it's actually also kinda town of him to think that he is obvtown for doing it in 1416. idk if he's self-aware enough as scum to know that he should portray himself as that un-self-aware. this is, i think, logically one of the worst reasons ive ever had to townread someone and yet somehow im kinda feelin confident in it rn

- really really don't like 1414 from luke. i think luke has been mostly saying reasonable things so ive been trying to ignore the bad vibes ive been getting (generally feels somewhat manipulative in the way he's approaching the game rather than coming from a town mindset) but i think this post is just bad. it seems intentionally very uncharitable, like, saying that marci has "pure confidence in meuh being town"??? the post he's referencing doesn't even read to me like a strong townread. scum can tunnel too and tunneling does not imply town, and luke absolutely should know this, so i find it very weird that he is twisting that. he also takes 264 as evidence for marci scumreading meuh early and seeing "no signs of that changing" despite... her never mentioning a suspicion. and in 708, where she lists her suspicions, meuh isn't mentioned. like that is 100% just luke setting a narrative that isn't there.

- then again marci's response to luke 1418 is kinda bad, so idk. but then eventually her explanation in 1435 fits exactly the progression i see in her iso. it's kind of strange to me that she doesn't question luke on his interpretation of her progression, which in a way kind of feels like it could be scum accepting that he found a correct suspicion without really diving in to see if it's accurate or not, but i guess it could come town not closely reading luke's post. not sure. don't love the response either way

- regarding PRs, i don't really think that anyone besides bell should be cleared atm, but i also don't really think there's much reason for the people who have softed/partial claimed to be limmed today

- not really a fan at all of how dwlee's one contribution today so far has been about what looks to me like a nothing point about something that isn't really a townslip at all. ik they said they'd be busy but im used to town dwlee having reads they care about even when they aren't posting much

- gorilla!! 1496!! thank you monke

- oh MAN and 1507 is not town. kinda think luke may have overplayed his hand here a bit