Open 857 | Frienemies | Postgame

[Gamma Emerald]

I think the last 2 scum are just Fire + Mala but I didn't actually think very hard I just drew a line in Dat's read triangle.

I’m not against these reads

[implosion]

To be clear I'm not really scumreading S_S on the whole, I just like, that one thing really does not sit well with me.

Andante is super town because I have no idea what utility she'd have for defending Penguin in the way she did.

the ONLY significant contributions we got from mala was when mala had direct pressure, and the wagon going her way. I genuinely do not believe this entire penguin wagon actually believes penguin flips red here.

If yall want to think about it, you had your "dueling wagons" on hut and penguin and game was dead, none of yall feel strongly one way or the other. I feel pretty strongly that mala isn't town here, so, I ask that yall at least think about voting her. thanks

Dragons throwing penguin on e-1 there was hella sus to me, after "being gone" then you show up, no words. just a vote...

Ari/hut/Dragons/mala

that's my pool of sus people right now

why is mala so hard to lim here?

This sequence of posts in particular, especially the last one complaining about Mala being hard to lim. That's just like, such a foreign way to play as scum when your buddy is going down - earnestly defending them without actually defending them.

[implosion]

I have very mixed feelings about fire and am willing to be persuaded in either direction.

[hutmeil]

Just want to point out that VP had 3 SRs - Peng/Mala/Andante. He got Peng right. Maybe that got him NKd? I get the Mala SR. But Andante I have to think about more...

[Malakittens]

Excuse me.

I’m not dying today or any day.

I’m going to reread the thread now with a scum penguin in mind tho.

[Malakittens]

Just want to point out that VP had 3 SRs - Peng/Mala/Andante. He got Peng right. Maybe that got him NKd? I get the Mala SR. But Andante I have to think about more...

He wasn’t scum reading me at the end

[Datisi]

okay, where were we

my first thought is that the day's yeet should be on-wagon. while i'm not gonna force this if someone off-wagon scumclaims, my recent experience from the champs game is telling me that there's probably scum on-wagon, at least one if not both. i think most scumteams can't help but jump onto the wagon as they see the buddy going down. especially with a wagon that seemed as easy (or stalled i guess?) as penguin's

also i'm annoyed because i thought the flip made baltar basically always town and i was looking forward to solving w him :<

[Datisi]

i don't think penguin's actions towards eod1 can really be read into, because i think it was kinda obvious he Was Going To Die, so any and all lolwagons he does at that point are just nonsense that can be discarded imho

obviously if someone has extensive experience with what scum-penguin-that-is-about-to-die does, correct me, but /shrug

1) I feel there are tons of possible explanations for penguin not fighting back. Maybe he was busy IRL for the july 4th weekend. Maybe he never felt like he had a foothold in the game to fight back with. Maybe other scum were okay with him going down. Maybe other scum are in the lurkers, and Penguin never felt any motivation to try hard because he thought it was a lost cause. Why jump to this conclusion? Mala and georgebailey are two of the names I most want to push right now, so this "I'd rather hunt on the wagon except maybe these two people" thing really doesn't do it for me.

i agree there are a lot of *possible* explanations for why penguin didn't fight back, but i think all of them (other than "other scum were literally not playing at all and had no clue what was going on") mean that at some point, other scum were going to be inclined to bus penguin. do you disagree with this assessment?

4) Which point was this from Datisi?

if penguin is scum, i think i would be pretty surprised if s_s or andante are scum? s_s especially, he doesn't strike me as someone willing to try something this nutty. andante *maybe*, she's a bit of a wildcard in my mind, but still pretty unlikely i think. more pressing matters tho -- why.

i think this reasoning still holds, fwiw, my idea of s_s's scumgame is that he's much more self-aware than this. i am interested in where he takes this line of thought today, but yeah

[Datisi]

i see what mala is saying, but that is probably not going to stop me from demanding more effort from her today

i'm gonna go eat something, then start going through on-wagon slots

[Datisi]

i lied actually i'm gonna eat later

implo's mention of pengu in 938 (and 973) is probably -partners. i don't think scum often does a "hey btw my partner is acting kinda scummy right?" at a time another wagon is building up. like, if you want to interact with your buddy, just make a neutral post. this is diverting attention towards penguin for not much gain.

1113 is nice on the surface, but it comes after baltar's vote on penguin so it's probably neutral overall

i feel like i should have thoughts on his 1545, but i just don't. i guess it would depend on how strong town!implo's scumread of mala was at that time for me to be able to determine whether that post is +town or +scum, but anyway.

implo's interactions with penguin are not as townie as i thought they were, but it's definitely still +town overall.

[Datisi]

gamma's thoughts on penguin went from "seems alright" (791) to "don't have a good feeling on" (1301) to refusing to vote there/hutmeil to voting there based on wagon comp. other honourable mentions are dismissing my post of penguin's activity being ai (978) and this question about penguin's read on fire (1100) which went nowhere and was made at a time when penguin started getting heat.

i first thought that gamma's refusal to vote penguin is +town because lol, but it got me thinking. she didn't really say she has a scumread on penguin or anything, right. so just voting there once there's a wagon there would look Very Bad once penguin flipped red and people attempted to look for bussers. the "i'm voting there for the wagon i townread" bit makes it seem more plausible to be a real thought process, and it's on the surface +townie because it avoids grabbing towncred by saying "i'm scumreading penguin" - i don't think it's actually +townie for the reasons i wrote prior, so.

basically uh i can very easily see this iso be a bus

[Datisi]

hutmeil can be scum for the late vote on penguin, because it kinda tips off the iconeum tell of scum don't wanna vote other scum even when they are competing wagons and they Really Should. however, someone mentioned wagons possibly implying hutmeil town so let's try to decode that

okay i don't get it. the only idea i theoretically have is "the wagons were them two for so long", but the fact that both pengu and hutmeil were pretty absent during those times is theoretically what explains it so meh. @implo how are these wagons implying hut town?

i'm gonna put a big "???" on this slot for now

@hut, what is the current status of your save the dragons read, and why?

[Datisi]

save the dragons entered with a townread on penguin, then commented his slot is not that good. in 1254, penguin and hutmeil are the same size, but in 1447 std says he's probably not voting for hutmeil and is rather voting penguin. and then 1521 exists but penguin was a dead penguin walking at that point so whatever.

looking at his iso in coalition and ctrl+f'ing "datisi", i'm sorta not seeing a meaningful difference? like, he was arguing with me about my mena case (while kinda sorta saying i might be town) and then he lolvoted me once things went to shit. obviously i know this might be just how std plays and nakedvoting is his Thing, but it's uh, not giving good feels

whoever thinks this std is vastly different, pls eli5 how

@std, what happened to your hut read between 1254 and 1521

[Datisi]

zzz i'm tired

ari's iso wrt penguin gives me sorta bad vibes because it's soft defending him while not defending him but actually looking for other stuff to vote. that being said, i ackchually this this is +townie for aristeia because i think she'd know whether to commit to one side or another and how to come out of it looking Not Bad. and "hammering a scum you weren't pushing at all" is a lowkey popular scumtell so i don't think(?) she does it.

i'll think about this more later ig but this is what my soul feels right now

[Datisi]

VOTE: gamma

will look at the off-wagoners and penguin's iso a bit later, maybe during my shift, maybe after.

[Aristeia]

do you not see I mentioned wagon comp? The VC helped me see it was basically all TRs of mine on penguin

what's your read on ari and STD?

both town

ok so why would you move from me to penguin when both are at 3 votes and you say you aren't convinced that penguin flips scum? saying the penguin wagon comp looks good doesn't make sense as a reason to switch if you also townread the entire wagon on me

i think maybe the 3-3 peng/fire wagons were all town on both sides[VC1.10] that would explain why 4-3-3 split went 6-4 into pengy autodeath, would imply fire/pengy team with one scum in the nonvoters?

[Aristeia]

i highly doubt gamma is mafia dats :<

[Aristeia]

hutmeil (4): GeorgeBailey, fireisredsir, PenguinPower, Andante
PenguinPower (3): VP Baltar, implosion, Datisi
fireisredsir (3): Gamma Emerald, Aristeia, Save The Dragons

we went from this game state to Pengy getting wagoned by the two [3]-wagons combining + hutmeil voting out of obligation.

I think it implies 2 scum on the hutmeil wagon if hutmeil is townie here and p damning VC for fire imo

[Aristeia]

also like Gamma switching to PP over Hutmeil tied up the wagons, he can much more easily push hutmeil if he is scum there and make it 5-3-2 ? I don't see why he needs to bus atp in the game.

[Datisi]

because if penguinpower ended up flipping, it would be a disaster?

like, assume scum!gamma votes hutmeil there in order to try to push that through, who are the other two votes?

i should maybe go back to look at how likely penguin was at that point to flip, but my vague memory tells me that the hut wagon was lowkey a deadend because a few people kept defending him?

[Aristeia]

zzz i'm tired

ari's iso wrt penguin gives me sorta bad vibes because it's soft defending him while not defending him but actually looking for other stuff to vote. that being said, i ackchually this this is +townie for aristeia because i think she'd know whether to commit to one side or another and how to come out of it looking Not Bad. and "hammering a scum you weren't pushing at all" is a lowkey popular scumtell so i don't think(?) she does it.

i'll think about this more later ig but this is what my soul feels right now

um if i was scum with penguin i'd just tell him what to post to get townread instead of asking him to post something townie and then hammering him for being a lolcatter.

[Aristeia]

because if penguinpower ended up flipping, it would be a disaster?

like, assume scum!gamma votes hutmeil there in order to try to push that through, who are the other two votes?

i should maybe go back to look at how likely penguin was at that point to flip, but my vague memory tells me that the hut wagon was lowkey a deadend because a few people kept defending him?

How many people on the hutmeil wagon do you think r scum? if its just penguin then you can fit 2 scum votes onto it and just convince a townie to hammer.

I think if hutmeil is town and the wagon comp is 3 townies + pengscum, there would be a 5th scum vote hopping on to add momentum, so it stalling out at 4-3-3 feels like something that happens if it's 2/2 ?

[Datisi]

uh

depends how bus happy the scum are and how doomed they thought the penguin is, i guess -- the goal isn't to survive day 1, if they thought pengu was gonna flip at a later day, maybe they thought it's better to cut their losses immediately than to try to save him?

still, can we pick up this convo later? i wanna actually remind myself of the gamestate at the time instead of flailing around like this, and i don't have the brainpower at this moment

[Aristeia]

sure <3 ttyl dear

[Malakittens]

I mean I think I been pretty *okay* at spotting town!gamma from scum!gamma. As I already mentioned I don't think Andante/Gamma share the same alignment and I feel like one of them are more than likely scum.

If i had to do a 3:1 EoL with them - id pick gamma for the scum over andante.

so i dont think gamma is a bad vote