Mini Normal 2275: Roguelikes - Day 3: Endgame!

[Confidently Wrong]

it's as simple as i thought they were in their town meta

Re: fancy i don't think anything in my entrance here was sus and it is exactly natural for a wrong townie who is reevaluating the gamestate and doesnt want to be pushed
I cant really explain longform and i can reread myself later and give more concrete responses

[Confidently Wrong]

Also im not answering any PR related probes. Your interest is weird.

Gamma knows how to read me + if i was scum he was dead tonight.
Gamma this is koba btw

[FancyPants]

Also im not answering any PR related probes. Your interest is weird.

Gamma knows how to read me + if i was scum he was dead tonight.
Gamma this is koba btw

Surety = scummy.

I accept your explanation for now.

Waiting for some absent people to comment.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ready for the fantastic explanation for my Loftwing town read?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Fancy Pants

(you're going to) Die, Scum! (But thankfully I have an escape from this planet with my rocket ship!)

I thought this was a soft that they were a Commuter. So. Yeah.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I see no town reasons for hiding the rest of the claim now. Also, unless the other ability is very specific, my town read on Loft is not as strong.

Which is why I posted this

[Malakittens]

I’m dead ok with wagoning Lowell.

Everyone else I’ll get back to u on that

[MalcolmTucker]

I tend to agree with two of Malcolm`s four recent conclusions.

Although there is always the possibility that it was an expertly orchestrated scum thing, I for now agree, that Irrelephant`s constant push on Loft makes him townie.

CWs defence of Loft feels scummy. But I have to say, that it also feels like the previous game I had with their alt account. They were defending my slot from day 1 on in the same way and I was scum and they town. so with this meta info involved it could very well be within their town range. But it is definitely something to look at.

I don't think that BBT's defence of Loft is in any way scummy. Especially the "nearly half of the players were more lurking than Loft" feels very natural for a townie. Yes, BBT really started the Fred wagon, but I don't think, that anybody at that point felt like it could really get us to a (mis-)elim.

I have to totally disagree with the proposed townblock. And this is not due to the fact, that I am missing in it. I am far beyond the point of believing I could be a part of a townblock soon. I just can't believe that there isn`t at least one scum on that wagon. And the coincident, that Malcolm himself is in his proposed townblock. This lets me raise an eyebrow.

So Malcolm, why do you think, this is the townblockl we should go with (apart from the fact, that they were on a scum wagon)? I guess there`s no need to explain why you think Irrelephant should be a part of it.

I just fundamentally don't think it's very likely that scum were on the Loftwing wagon to be honest.

The slot was in that middle-ground where Loftwing wasn't quite at the point of being the only definite elimination for most of the day, however there was constant pressure all the same.

I don't think his elimination was obvious to the point where scum would want to vote for Loftwing to gain towncred; by the same token there was enough heat there that it couldn't be a throwaway vote from mafia to create some distance, if that makes sense.

Lowell could potentially work to a degree and Gamma/Shoshin was absent for most of D1, but I don't see how scum benefits from either slot voting Loftwing. There's misdirects and then there's actively harming your chances as scum for minimal self-gain.

Remember, scum didn't think Loftwing was getting eliminated. They hoped to push through two townie eliminations with all three of them still in the game today.

[MalcolmTucker]

Leaning town on Kenny. His early scrap with Loftwing could be manufactured but seems fairly unlikely.

[FancyPants]

I’m dead ok with wagoning Lowell.

Everyone else I’ll get back to u on that

Why Lowell?

[MalcolmTucker]

Lowell was confident on Loftwing wagon and was on it reasonably early. Very much town I think. Only slot on that wagon I'd have any doubts about at the moment is Gamma given Shoshin didn't say much but again I feel like it's unlikely scum would place a vote there, so Gamma is likely town too.

[MalcolmTucker]

Eira was also pretty up front about their suspicion for Loftwing and seems unlikely to be scum.

I know Mala didn't post a lot but there's not a single mention of Loftwing in their ISO. Loftwing-Mala-CW seems like a palpable scumteam at the moment.

[FancyPants]

Lowell was confident on Loftwing wagon and was on it reasonably early. Very much town I think. Only slot on that wagon I'd have any doubts about at the moment is Gamma given Shoshin didn't say much but again I feel like it's unlikely scum would place a vote there, so Gamma is likely town too.

Don't feed them answers.

[FancyPants]

I agree with you though.

[Confidently Wrong]

On break now. Goal is to create a box of townies spewed rn - that being said just because someone pushed or was pushed by loftwing , it doesnt make them auto town. Remember that if we reach limlo. Lowell is one such slot - but only if mala is town. Context matters heavily. There were multiple dueling wagons and I'm strictly talking about anyone who pushed loft who was a dueling wagon with them. This means lowell+eira are not as cleared as the others - however i am not going to be looking first there. I know people wont like this take but it is a correct one that ensures we dont lose because we only looked at surface level logic of "they pushed scum hard!!"

I had a weird tinfoil based on how fancy was treating me going into this day but i think they were the one who did the meta dive so i think that slot is also pretty locktown.

If i had to locktown people at the moment:

Fancy
Irrelephant
Gamma(shoshin)

Likely town:
bbt(yall will hate me for this one but i sympathize with them. I after all did sheep their case, and that primarily becaue i was working off the false assumption loft was town)
Malcom - i still think the way they approach the game is how they do as town and the identifying factors - the extreme indecisiveness - was proof of that. I am still too wary and have tinfoils that prevent me from locking this in.

I forgot who else was in the game so uh i need to check playerlist before i post more

[Confidently Wrong]

Once i look at how wagons are i honestly feel i still have a vastly similar PoE? A game recently finished where i thought bbt was scum during night phase and i had BBT in poe because of that game but now that I know they were town there i have flipped my read there because of that.

The main thing i ask is people keep an open mind about this and allow me to do my work(trust me once i have evidence i can really case things well)

[MalcolmTucker]

Funnily enough CW not pushing BBT at all does slightly soften my scumread a bit from very confident to relatively confident - I do feel like that'd be a useful slot for CW to be pushing given they TR'd Loftwing quite strong. Although, of course, there's not necessarily anything ruling out the two of them being scum together, much as I don't see it.

[MalcolmTucker]

Once i look at how wagons are i honestly feel i still have a vastly similar PoE? A game recently finished where i thought bbt was scum during night phase and i had BBT in poe because of that game but now that I know they were town there i have flipped my read there because of that.

The main thing i ask is people keep an open mind about this and allow me to do my work(trust me once i have evidence i can really case things well)

I have no doubt of this, my issue is if you're scum (which is quite probable) you could use that to try and wriggle out of being eliminated. We have a relatively strong townpool at this point, so for scum it's going to basically be a desperate scrap to throw anyone they can who's feasible onto the scrapheap. But intrigued to see what you come up with, even if only to give me a better feel on my read of you.

[Confidently Wrong]

Funnily enough CW not pushing BBT at all does slightly soften my scumread a bit from very confident to relatively confident - I do feel like that'd be a useful slot for CW to be pushing given they TR'd Loftwing quite strong. Although, of course, there's not necessarily anything ruling out the two of them being scum together, much as I don't see it.

I think its fair to see bbt and I as partnered but from my point of view, and bbts thats obviously... not possible so keep in mind that as town id be seeing things in a different POV adnd have a different view than most, notably being forced to consider slots others think are clear for (what i believe ) are weak distancing reasons.

From where i sit, if the team is lowell loftwing eira - they were in deep shit all day and the fredrick wagon was a godsend.

[FancyPants]

Actually CW is town.

Scum in {Mala/Gamma/BBT} maaaaaybe Lowell or Eira.

[Lowell]

Hell yeah loft was scum. What do I do now that I can't vote Cats???

[Confidently Wrong]

Bless you fredrick for doing votecounts that is a saving grace and will help us now lmao

Anyone got a tool that can create a votecount as of a certain post? Because i just need to see what viable wagons were at key points - like i said, i think i had a different piece of the puzzle d1, was pushing it correctly and was pushing against people with another piece. (As is common in games !)

[Lowell]

Nevermind I've figured it out.

vote gamma

Welcome

[Confidently Wrong]

Like wagons d1 were lowell/loftwing

When lowell was getting wagoned, lowell unexplained jumped on loft. Viable bus, and what i believe was what happened at this point(pending deeper reread, mobile gaming har

Same thing happened with eira

What i need lowell to do is explain their progression and how they reached a vote on loftwing.

[Lowell]

My initial D2 thoughts based on what I can remember:

Towns: Irrel, Fancy, Kenny
Nulls: BBT, Malcolm, Eira
Scums: Gamma, Mala, CW