Open 857 | Frienemies | Postgame

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.01

implosion (1):

fireisredsir

fireisredsir (1):

Save The Dragons

Gamma Emerald (1):

Datisi

Not Voting (8):

Aristeia, Gamma Emerald, GeorgeBailey, hutmeil, implosion, Malakittens, Something_Smart, Andante

With 11 alive, it's 6 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is July 17 at 8:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-07-17 20:00:00)

Note:

I made an error with my initial deadline for Day 2, this has since been corrected. Please take note of the amended deadline, which is 4 days shorter.

[Datisi]

I think it implies 2 scum on the hutmeil wagon if hutmeil is townie here and p damning VC for fire imo

why is it damning for fire specifically as opposed to the other two voting alongside penguin?

and i skimmed a bit around that vc, it seems like baltar was pretty loudly advocating for penguin and against hutmeil wagons? which makes it at least more likely someone bussed imo

[Datisi]

i think maybe the 3-3 peng/fire wagons were all town on both sides[VC1.10] that would explain why 4-3-3 split went 6-4 into pengy autodeath, would imply fire/pengy team with one scum in the nonvoters?

i don't get this at all x_x how is it likely that all three townies there made the correct choice om voting penguin vs voting hutmeil, and why does it imply scum!fire?

[Aristeia]

I think it implies 2 scum on the hutmeil wagon if hutmeil is townie here and p damning VC for fire imo

why is it damning for fire specifically as opposed to the other two voting alongside penguin?

and i skimmed a bit around that vc, it seems like baltar was pretty loudly advocating for penguin and against hutmeil wagons? which makes it at least more likely someone bussed imo

because if fire is more viable and town it would be better for Peng to vote there rather than push hutmeil.

[Aristeia]

like if the split on the wagons is

hutmeil 2t 2s
peng 3t
fire 3t

then it makes sense for fire/peng to both be s

[Aristeia]

if we have fire town hutmeil town peng scum then i dont really see why gamma scum would decide to consolidate towards peng when he could just stay put?

like when there is a stall and 3 wagons semi-tied you usually expect scum to be able to push for the wagon that they want cuz there r townies voting townies somewhere.

[Datisi]

because if fire is more viable and town it would be better for Peng to vote there rather than push hutmeil.

was he more viable? both wagons were at three votes, 4 with penguin's?

[Andante]

Just want to point out that VP had 3 SRs - Peng/Mala/Andante. He got Peng right. Maybe that got him NKd? I get the Mala SR. But Andante I have to think about more...

he tunneled me at one point sure, but if he still SRed me he'd have kept tunneling? so idk what the point you're trying to make here even is? Scum was obv hunting for masons, killed someone that no one SRed, assuming he'd be mason, and they were wrong, there's is no way scum kills him for his reads cause I'm town, and if this is your attempt to start a tunnel on me? think again

[Something_Smart]

What a zero-dimensional way to look at scumplay

[Datisi]

andante is scum who did that last might and is salty she hit a vt

[Andante]

I did have some thoughts overnight while looking for potential penguin partners,

so in 986, I posted about how I was thinking penguin was genuinely scum cause his play was not lining up with his town game AT ALL. This was the first time I think there was a genuine SR penguin's way other than "SR for lurking" like, could just be me thinking the world revolves around me. The point is, it was a VERY solid point that ended up being true, but I went back to this to just see how people acted around it, cause scum would know I was 1000% correct there, so if they're bussing, that's probably about the time they would start, cause it was an actual "yo... so nothing about penguin here lines up with this town game I'm looking at" and yeah I had my doubts after that, but that's not the point.

Immediate reaction. Gamma is there, but gamma completely ignores my "penguin is an actual scum lean" in 987 and is going on and on about how I'm not engaging with them, like, I even ended up correcting what I said about penguin, so like, if you're "trying so hard to engage with andante" why do you not just mention literally anything about that list of reads? So I definitely think Gamma is a little sus

~~

And my implosion issues were with 1111 and 1113
Like, those posts talking about penguin just feel super odd/distancey to me, cause this is the point where the Penguin SR is gaining momentum, so it's like "here's awkward posts that will later justify my SR on penguin... and to me they feel very odd, but then his response to me last night didn't seem too bad? but these 2 posts, I still can't get over how non towny they seem with their approach to penguin

[Andante]

but then, it's like, at the end of the day I still have SRs on Ari, Hut, and mala, so it's like, idk. Like, yay! I'm glad yesterday worked out, but I'm kinda just super confused about where to go today

[Aristeia]

because if fire is more viable and town it would be better for Peng to vote there rather than push hutmeil.

was he more viable? both wagons were at three votes, 4 with penguin's?

Assuming Hutmeil is town;

if the distribution is something like

Hutmeil - 2 Town Voters, 2 Scum Voters
Penguin - 3 Town Voters
Fire - 3 Town Voters

The Scum Voters are better off on the Fire Wagon because they can get it to 5 with 3/2 split which is a smaller scum concentration. From a scum POV that wagon is

more

viable than Hutmeil.

If the Hutmeil wagon was 3 Town Voters, 1 Scum voter, I don't see why another scum doesn't vote on hutmeil and push it rather than just stalling and letting momentum swing.


Also you made the point that Gamma voting for Penguin is necessary for scum!Gamma but I don't see how hutmeil is not viable? If Gamma votes for hutmeil that would make the wagons 5 votes 3 votes 2 votes, even if Hutmeil switches it would be only 5-4 and it's not clear at all that Peng ends up being eliminated. SS is fairly stoic at this point, Mala is afk?, STD said in 1252 that he prefers Peng to Hutmeil but it's not very solid, I've said some nice things about Peng but it's not clear which way I'd vote yet.

It feels kind of weird to bus in this spot for Gamma!scum. I don't think it's clear at all that hut can't be elimmed at this point in time.

I also I really liked his take about voting with the people he townreads more because I kind of had the same feeling too just looking at wagon comp at the time when deciding because neither of them had really done much that was AI up to that point and it makes sense to vote with the people you townread more.

[GeorgeBailey]

Nation wide internet outage today.

Sorry but I'll be back when that's fixed. Thank god for Tim Hortons wifi.

[Save The Dragons]

@std, what happened to your hut read between 1254 and 1521

uh nothing??? lol

hut was a townread between then and then

[Save The Dragons]

not sure i like datisi's "on wagon" analysis nor his gamma vote

[fireisredsir]

Nation wide internet outage today.

Sorry but I'll be back when that's fixed. Thank god for Tim Hortons wifi.

classic roger

[fireisredsir]

ive reread some things again and i changed my mind, i don't think i want to hunt on wagon anymore rn

im cool with looking mostly in [george, mala] for now

UNVOTE:

[Datisi]

@std, what happened to your hut read between 1254 and 1521

uh nothing??? lol

hut was a townread between then and then

i guess i'm asking what made you want to vote penguin as opposed to hut, because "penguin isn't doing anything" is a criticism that also applies to hut

what do you not like about my analysis?

[Datisi]

ive reread some things again and i changed my mind, i don't think i want to hunt on wagon anymore rn

i really wanna hear what these ~things~ are

(also @ari, i'll read your posts when i'm home, the café is too distracting >_>)

[Save The Dragons]

I disagree with that assessment of penguin and hut

[Datisi]

you gonna elaborate on that, or...

[Save The Dragons]

what do you not like about my analysis?

i feel like you left the door open for you to scumread anyone on that list (except I guess implosion, if i'm being honest i misread what you wrote when you said '-partners' i thought you meant they were partnered but you were saying less partnered so i'm tracking now but other than that you basically scumread everyone else on the wagon giving you the opportunity to go anywhere the wind blows, unless you TR George, fire, S_S, mala and andante

[Save The Dragons]

you gonna elaborate on that, or...

pengu literally did nothing
hut is not doing nothing

[Datisi]

you gonna elaborate on that, or...

pengu literally did nothing
hut is not doing nothing

in that timeframe, all hut did was vote for his own counterwagon, and say how he's fine with yeeting mala because she's lurking