Open 857 | Frienemies | Postgame

[Aristeia]

SS do you have thoughts about who is mafia here?

[Gamma Emerald]

I mean I think I been pretty *okay* at spotting town!gamma from scum!gamma. As I already mentioned I don't think Andante/Gamma share the same alignment and I feel like one of them are more than likely scum.

If i had to do a 3:1 EoL with them - id pick gamma for the scum over andante.

so i dont think gamma is a bad vote

[Gamma Emerald]

What a zero-dimensional way to look at scumplay

Is this to Andante?

[Gamma Emerald]

PenguinPower (7): VP Baltar, implosion, Datisi, Gamma Emerald, hutmeil, Save The Dragons, Aristeia

And like, everyone I SR is essentially on this wagon. Dragons here with this hut read is making 0 sense, I don't see town going like "oh hut changed their read!! hut is town!!!" like, if you were town in that spot, why is the thought not "the read change is very odd, is this cause I'm a lot harder to push than vulture was?" idk, dragons isn't making sense here with this hut read, and I actually don't like it

your reads are garbage

[Gamma Emerald]

that was a joke but the fact that gamma felt liberated enough to do that makes me feel town vibes

Idk, in RC's uPick Gamma spammed for pages to make it the longest D1 ever. I think if she felt liberated enough to do that as scum she can make a single Twilight joke.

[Datisi]

hi gamma do you have any Reads(tm)

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Malakittens
Her bluster about not getting voted out seems off + I still think her read on me/Andante is trying to chain MYs.

[implosion]

I mean I think I been pretty *okay* at spotting town!gamma from scum!gamma. As I already mentioned I don't think Andante/Gamma share the same alignment and I feel like one of them are more than likely scum.

If i had to do a 3:1 EoL with them - id pick gamma for the scum over andante.

so i dont think gamma is a bad vote

Why aren't you voting Gamma, then?

[Something_Smart]

Is this to Andante?

Yes. If I don't indicate who a post is aimed at, it's almost always a response to the previous post.

[Datisi]

why am i scum, other than scumreading two and a half people after narrowing down a yeetpool to 5

@save the dragons

I could go through this exercise for more players but basically this is a blanket statement that I think ignores the realities of how scum have to play a game.

this criticism is sorta valid but also meh. scum is embroiled in the gamestate, sure, but part of that gamestate is "scumbuddy position" and that affects the play. what i mean to say is, if they saw their buddy was arousing suspicion, and they probably would've started manufacturing suspicion (rather than flat out lurking) if they weren't planning to save them. like, they would've tried to at least give some footing for a penguin bus-vote once it started getting obvious he was going to get run up

obviously the issue with this rebuttal is that it assumes scum actually is reading the game, and since it was a holiday weekend blah blah it can't be 100% assumed and yeah idk

Why does this make it more likely someone bussed? Wouldn't scum typically want to kill on-wagon if there were no bussers?

i was thinking "loud, obnoxious, and overall correct townie is being loud and obnoxious". i'm not thinking in terms of where scum is more or less likely to be based on the position of the wagon shot because (1) baltar was always town after that d1 and (2) we don't know exactly what was the main motive behind the kill (bad reads, good reads, mason hunting, etc.)

[Save The Dragons]

you can be scum for that

[Datisi]

i'm trying to parse through ari's vca

it makes sense, but it makes sense under certain assumptions that i'm not sure i'm comfortable making. like, sure, if there's 2t 2s on hut and 3t on fire in 1407, it would make sense for scum to switch onto pushing fire instead, if fire is town.

and 1662 assumes that scum is willing to risk having an extremely difficult gamestate position on d2 if penguin flips (with a few slots that will be deciding, and that haven't given concrete stances), or having a moderately difficult position even if hut flips green (because penguin doesn't magically become townread).

maybe one of the problems is that my reads are so different than everybody else's, it seems

[Aristeia]

when do you think gamma decided to bus penguin and why?

[Datisi]

the post above my previous one is just making me wanna murder std because most of his reads feel like "vibes" and "gut" that don't actually make sense, mostly his hut townread and his scumread(?) of me

i feel like i should have opinions about the fact that both std and hut went "well, they are townreading me, so they can be town for that!" but i don't. it feels like something worth noting, though.

also, while i don't necessarily want her dead today, i support the mala wagon for the time being. if she has things she needs to say, it's probably better she says them sooner rather than later.

there's also another interesting thing going on right now that i'm noting down and looking back upon once we have another flip or two

andante and s_s are town

[Datisi]

when do you think gamma decided to bus penguin and why?

i feel like i explained this already? but like. if we're going off that vc right before gamma voted, then there are a few people that haven't yet given a loud preference for penguin or hutmeil? if gamma (and the third scum) commits to voting hutmeil, and the undecided peeps swing it onto penguin, then the last two scum are in a very shit position, right?

if they decide to commit to saving penguin, and they manage to push hut through, then they're still tied together as those that saved penguin, and penguin is still going to be suspicious tomorrow.

versus just cutting their losses and shoving him out of the game

like, this is what i feel like can be compared to what implo said earlier. scum can't just vote a partner without having some sorta foundation for it because it's gonna look bad and everyone expects it (e.g. george, mala). the fact that gamma did the thing where she justified the vote by saying she's voting because Good Wagon Comp or whatever is the exactly the sorta foundation-building-stuff that makes the vote seem more plausible

[Datisi]

this is partly why i dislike doing complicated vca with so little flips because i just get lost within 20 assumptions about what was viable and what wasn't

and within those 20 assumption, at least 1 is gonna be wrong which would make everything else wrong too

so trying to bigbrain it as opposed to going "wagon too easy, whose vote is most bus-like"

maybe it's my tiredness speaking idk i don't feel like i'm gonna be able to solve it this way

[Aristeia]

i dont think it makes sense for scum him to push town you dear

[Datisi]

i dont think it makes sense for scum him to push town you dear

he's not pushing me >_>

[Aristeia]

calling you scum then - I don't really think scum!him does that because I don't see what's in it for him.

[Aristeia]

the way I think about yeeting on-wagon is this:

there are three types of wagons in this game:

scum-driven(heavy scum presence)
town-driven(heavy town presence)
mason-driven(heavy mason presence)

I feel that the VPB shot points to scum believing that the wagon was mason-driven because scum

have

to shoot masons to win this game, there is no other way they can really win if they do not shoot the masons. it also implies imo that scum will continue to shoot on the wagon to hunt where they believe the masons are - which means they will be narrowing things down for us in the future. If we wagon people on the wagon, we're kind of doing their work for them ~whereas if we hunt off wagon, we can let scum do our work for us and shoot people on the wagon.

from a scum POV a wagon of 7 that is heavily mason could have [2-3 masons] on it which leaves a leftover POE of [4-5 unknowns] whenever they miss a shot in the POE they are making the leftover POE on wagon smaller - [4-5] -> [3-4] which is not good for them if they are bussing or heavily bussing - typically I don't think scum teams are comfortable squeezing their own POE like that - it feels somewhat uncomfortable.

[fireisredsir]

Vote Count 1.06

Malakittens (4):

Aristeia, Datisi, implosion, Andante

Vulture (2):

PenguinPower, hutmeil

Gamma Emerald (2):

fireisredsir, Malakittens

Andante (2):

Gamma Emerald, VP Baltar

Datisi (1):

GeorgeBailey

Not Voting (2):

Something_Smart, Vulture

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is July 8 at 5:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-07-08 17:00:00)

Notes:

PenguinPower is V/LA on weekends.

vc is here

vp switches to ari in 1038

gamma switches to me in 1040

that puts it at 4 on mala, 2 on vulture, 2 on gamma, and 1 each on datisi, ari, and me. there's a lot of lingering suspicion on hut around but no active wagon. gamma and vulture don't really have widespread support

georgebailey shows up and votes hut in 1067. i join the new hut wagon partly cause im starting to doubt my gamma read. ari votes me in 1077

penguin votes hut in 1079. penguin is under no real pressure atp, but if mala is scum then he would want to try to push an alternate wagon. i think he did make a mistake here, and may have lived if he voted me (he had the trajectory for it too, he was voting me earlier). but probably he judged that the hut wagon was more likely to go far since a few people had suspicion there that they hadnt acted on and im more talkative generally and might be hard to push.

i think these two votes were intended to try to push the hut wagon not above penguin, but above mala, because again, there was no penguin wagon yet. the penguin wagon came in response

there's also a good case in here for me+mala+peng which would be why he voted me instead of hut, which, okay whatever, ik that's wrong but i don't blame ari for seeing it. i think that george just kinda looked for a direction to go for a counter, found one, and then penguin hopped on as well after i did

a lot of the suspicion on penguin is now because he voted hut over me. switching to me suddenly will now draw a ton of scrutiny. so by the time it hits 1407 it's just too late, i think that's part of why scum didn't try to shift over to me

[Datisi]

why would that be a "poe" on the wagon? scum doesn't know whether the town is gonna be yeeting on wagon or off wagon?

and i don't know why you're making the assumption that masons are gonna be outright voting together

pedit: this is re 1769

[fireisredsir]

I feel that the VPB shot points to scum believing that the wagon was mason-driven because scum have to shoot masons to win this game, there is no other way they can really win if they do not shoot the masons. it also implies imo that scum will continue to shoot on the wagon to hunt where they believe the masons are - which means they will be narrowing things down for us in the future. If we wagon people on the wagon, we're kind of doing their work for them ~whereas if we hunt off wagon, we can let scum do our work for us and shoot people on the wagon.

from a scum POV a wagon of 7 that is heavily mason could have [2-3 masons] on it which leaves a leftover POE of [4-5 unknowns] whenever they miss a shot in the POE they are making the leftover POE on wagon smaller - [4-5] -> [3-4] which is not good for them if they are bussing or heavily bussing - typically I don't think scum teams are comfortable squeezing their own POE like that - it feels somewhat uncomfortable.

this was also more or less the realization i had and my thought process for why i wanted to hunt off wagon, which i didn't really want to get into the discussion of too heavily, but since it's been said now, yea i agree with this

[Datisi]

it once again feels like everyone around me is playing 5d chess while i'm playing tic tac toe

i'm giving up on this for the night, see y'all tomorrow

[Aristeia]

i feel like i explained this already? but like. if we're going off that vc right before gamma voted, then there are a few people that haven't yet given a loud preference for penguin or hutmeil? if gamma (and the third scum) commits to voting hutmeil, and the undecided peeps swing it onto penguin, then the last two scum are in a very shit position, right?

I don't think so because the scenario you are talking about,

if Gamma votes Hutmeil, putting the wagons at 5-3 Hut/Peng[5-4 if you count Hutmeil as voting Peng] then there's STD, Ari, Mala, SS undecided.

There's no reason Gamma would expect (3/4) of us to vote for Peng versus say 2 of us voting for Hutmeil instead.

I think there's a pretty good chance that if he did vote for hut and made it 5-4 then hut would get exec'd over penguin and if hut flips town I'm not sure we go back and yeet penguin the next day automatically so the reward is fine in comparison to the risk.

Secondly I disagree with your assessment of downside risk if he were to fail in yeeting hutmeil on d1;

You say he'd be in a shitty position if Peng goes down but like Andante/GeorgeBailey/SS literally did vote on the Hutmeil CW to Pengy and none of them seem to be in a "shitty position" today - SS/Andante seem fairly widely townread and it's not like we're grabbing George and preparing to yeet him so I don't see how his position would be "shitty" per se.